Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[teddy-hopkins]

I mean we basically cashed out of the top 35 in two drafts to make it happen, including coughing up players like Taj Hotton, Cooper Hynes, and Bo Allan along the way. Apparently we could have got a future first and change off North for pick 14 too!

So no, it's not some incredible twist of fate, we've put a lot of eggs in the basket for this one, and we've still got so little faith in the depth chart at either end we're hosting a veritable gaggle of mature talls for one list spot.

It's a gamble. We've got a very good player, and we've got some other solid players, but we're cashing in on the depth of the list and the fortune of securing the Campo twins and Duffy.

100% correct. We went all in to get Jagga and he certainly didn't come free but in a draft this strong Austin clearly has his reasons.

Hoping Jagga gets to the level of player you normally can't even trade for.

I think we've future proofed the list a lot in this draft for post Cripps in particular. Walsh and Jagga should be the core of the midfield for a long time to come and I'm optimistic on BC also.

I do wonder why we've left ourselves with no plan B in defense again. It is Weiters or bust with mid sized guys like Haynes and Gov having to play tall all year. We need to find a CHB with the SSP pick and Durdin would be a complete waste of time.

 

[Arr0w]

l believe you are missing the point in some areas, add a fit Cerra & Walsh to our midfield and the addition of Smith & possibly growth in Wilson we are in good shape in this area.

Austin has clearly gone for quality, he believes Smith is a geninue A grade player for a long period, finding it difficult why this is not a good strategy with the current shape of our list.

I don't mind alternative views on strategies, such a pick 3 versus 12 & 14, I certainly would have preferred to keep the latter

At this early stage, there is no right or wrong in either

 

[teddy-hopkins]

I don't understand where you're going with this. Do you think that those names are more likely to make it as AFL players than Jagga Smith?

Agreed. I really don't rate Allan. He'd have to have a huge amount of development to get to where Jagga is at right now. And Hotton would be one of the more speculative picks given the injury - we don't need more injury prone types.

 

[macky99]

I don't mind alternative views on strategies, such a pick 3 versus 12 & 14, I certainly would have preferred to keep the latter

At this early stage, there is no right or wrong in either

No saying there is but recruitment is such a subjective topic, the direction Austin took was very clearly based on the belief that the top end of the draft was clearly better than the next level, hence why most people rated pretty much the same 1st 6 but in a different order.

 

[Arr0w]

No saying there is but recruitment is such a subjective topic, the direction Austin took was very clearly based on the belief that the top end of the draft was clearly better than the next level, hence why most people rated pretty much the same 1st 6 but in a different order.

Not critical as such of Austin's decision to trade up to pick 3, I think Smith is a great addition to the club and if he was taken earlier, there were others of similar quality

But it's also okay if others, saw that there was value by taking later 1st round picks

Recruiting is about an informed view

 

[AndyLucimitis]

100% correct. We went all in to get Jagga and he certainly didn't come free but in a draft this strong Austin clearly has his reasons.

Hoping Jagga gets to the level of player you normally can't even trade for.

I think we've future proofed the list a lot in this draft for post Cripps in particular. Walsh and Jagga should be the core of the midfield for a long time to come and I'm optimistic on BC also.

I do wonder why we've left ourselves with no plan B in defense again. It is Weiters or bust with mid sized guys like Haynes and Gov having to play tall all year. We need to find a CHB with the SSP pick and Durdin would be a complete waste of time.

Remember we also have Cody Walker in two drafts so there will trading of 2026 picks.


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[circusdevil]

Harry IV

Runnin' Wild

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I mean we basically cashed out of the top 35 in two drafts to make it happen, including coughing up players like Taj Hotton, Cooper Hynes, and Bo Allan along the way. Apparently we could have got a future first and change off North for pick 14 too!

So no, it's not some incredible twist of fate, we've put a lot of eggs in the basket for this one, and we've still got so little faith in the depth chart at either end we're hosting a veritable gaggle of mature talls for one list spot.

It's a gamble. We've got a very good player, and we've got some other solid players, but we're cashing in on the depth of the list and the fortune of securing the Campo twins and Duffy.

There's a reason that North Pick was traded so lowly. This draft is much better than next year's.

Also I think you need to let go of the desperation for two picks in the teens. History shows they don't compete with one elite pick. And I think Jagga has them all easily covered. If we had of picked Fos or Lalor you would have had a point. But we pulled it off.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I don't mind alternative views on strategies, such a pick 3 versus 12 & 14, I certainly would have preferred to keep the latter

At this early stage, there is no right or wrong in either

Madness

 

[Stamos]

Remember we also have Cody Walker in two drafts so there will trading of 2026 picks.

With the change in DVI and matching rules, I don’t think we’ll be trading out of 2026.
We’re likely going to need a lot more points.

 

[Manhattanite]

I don't mind alternative views on strategies, such a pick 3 versus 12 & 14, I certainly would have preferred to keep the latter

At this early stage, there is no right or wrong in either

When we look back in say 3 or 5 or 10 years we have to keep in mind that had we not done the trade with West Coast we would have likely used pick 12 for Houston and then taken Pick 14 to the draft and the players next available (and the ones we would most likely have ranked next) would have been one of Bo Allan, Murphy Reid, Oliver Hannaford and maybe Luke Trainor. So that’s whom we would have to look at. Not someone talented at Pick 30 who ends up being the best of the draft and no one saw it coming.

The other names many of us wanted in that mid teen range were gone by Pick 14 (ended up being pick 16). But maybe Allan or Reid could end up better than Jagga - or maybe Houston goes up another gear in 2025, or maybe O’Farrell ends up being a bust and Trainor an A grader. Time will tell.



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[Arr0w]

Madness

Which part

When we look back in say 3 or 5 or 10 years we have to keep in mind that had we not done the trade with West Coast we would have likely used pick 12 for Houston and then taken Pick 14 to the draft and the players next available

That may or may not have been the case. By all reports, Houston's preference was Carlton, but Austin had a limit and rightfully so. We then could have taken 12 and 14 to the draft

(and the ones we would most likely have ranked next) would have been one of Bo Allan, Murphy Reid, Oliver Hannaford and maybe Luke Trainor.

Of the players left on the board, I would have taken Hynes and Hannaford

So that’s whom we would have to look at. Not someone talented at Pick 30 who ends up being the best of the draft and no one saw it coming.

The other names many of us wanted in that mid teen range were gone by Pick 14 (ended up being pick 16). But maybe Allan or Reid could end up better than Jagga - or maybe Houston goes up another gear in 2025, or maybe O’Farrell ends up being a bust and Trainor an A grader. Time will tell.



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I think its a good discussion point, might start a thread on it, somewhat of a time capsule

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

With the change in DVI and matching rules, I don’t think we’ll be trading out of 2026.
We’re likely going to need a lot more points.

We will need our 2026 1st round points for Cody with the draft/points changes if Cody goes top 10

 

[GT619]

just came from saints draft board who are trying to name their 22 man defence

 

[Stamos]

We will need our 2026 1st round points for Cody with the draft/points changes if Cody goes top 10

And if he goes top 5 we’ll need 2 x 1sts

 

[Arr0w]

Swans, Lions, Suns have multiple pointy end academy talent next year. Will be interesting to see what they do

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

And if he goes top 5 we’ll need 2 x 1sts

Spoke with POMMY. .. We wont use 1st rounders ... we will use multiple 2nd round picks. We will have 3 years of picks to use. So no matter what pick he goes we will have him covered easily enough... no stress boys

 

[RPCB]

Spoke with POMMY. .. We wont use 1st rounders ... we will use multiple 2nd round picks. We will have 3 years of picks to use. So no matter what pick he goes we will have him covered easily enough... no stress boys

I was stressing reading down the page.

Now I am relieved.

 

[gbatman]

Seems to be our current LM blind spot

It is, it is for most sides when building a list, it's generally the last piece because historically they come with later picks, are easier to get and take a shorter time to develop.

Our small forwards are makeshift. They are failed forwards and defenders and don't have the natural skillset or forward instincts to play that end at a high level.

Fogarty, Cottrell, Fantasia are very limited and are missing key pieces that would make them genuine forwards.

Owies and Martin are gone.

Motlop has not performed. Durdin has not performed at all since 2022.

Williams is a very good natural all round footballer but does he have it as a forward?

Elijah Hollands is more of a midfielder. He looks like a part time forward not a full time forward.

Moir has it in spades.

Small forwards need to have the smarts. There is a reason they get to the right spots at the right times. They need to be good overhead. They need pace, closing speed and the need to chase, tackle and pressure. They also need good skills to hit targets and kick goals.

I'm sceptical of most of the players mentioned. I think we will be going very very hard at shifting many of those mentioned names off our list and bringing in elite smaller forward talent.

I think we will be hoping Smith can play there a bit. I think we will be hoping like hell that Williams, Motlop and Durdin go up a level. Hollands will play half forward a bit. Kemp is going forward which I like. Moir will play next year. He fills both the small and medium forward position and is a genuine forward.

You can only teach players to play forward to a certain level. There is a limit on how far you can go in making a player into a forward. That limit has been reached with most of the names mentioned. The instincts and IQ can't be taught.

We will be going hard at forwards next year and hopefully Cody Walker fits part of the bill.

 

[Stamos]

Spoke with POMMY. .. We wont use 1st rounders ... we will use multiple 2nd round picks. We will have 3 years of picks to use. So no matter what pick he goes we will have him covered easily enough... no stress boys

We’ll be fine, but we’ll have to be carrying points into 2026, we won’t be trading out into 25.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Spoke with POMMY. .. We wont use 1st rounders ... we will use multiple 2nd round picks. We will have 3 years of picks to use. So no matter what pick he goes we will have him covered easily enough... no stress boys

Im not sure about that. I think late 1sts / very early 2nds will be the sweet spot. Mid-late 2nds are what teams load up on under the current system so doubt itll be the same.

Also futures wont be worth much. Our F1 in 2026 will be for 2027, which is the tassie draft. I doubt teams will be lining up for that pick. And futures 2 years in advance will be worth very little.

I like Pommy but wouldnt take his word as gospel on this. I dont believe anybody has even seen the points table.

I reckon we get him but probably have to trade F1 and go into deficit so would want to hold our future picks next year. Obviously big difference if he goes 1 vs 10 too. If any players leave next year we may elect for future picks to help us out further.

Whatever it costs us itll probably be worth it.

 

[Arr0w]

I was stressing reading down the page.

Now I am relieved.

As an example, if Cody was bid on at pick 4, we would need more points to the value of pick 45 only

 

[Arr0w]

We’ll be fine, but we’ll have to be carrying points into 2026, we won’t be trading out into 25.

Or trade 2027 picks into 2026

 

[GoBlues!]

And if he goes top 5 we’ll need 2 x 1sts

New rules allow for future trading of picks extended up to two years in advance - meaning in Cody’s draft year 2026 we can draw on 2027 and 2028 F1s and F2s if required.

I suppose next year we can start trading to stockpile some in 2026, and in 2026 try and trade picks from 2027, 2028 into 2026 as well.

 

[Arr0w]

Im not sure about that. I think it'll take late 1sts or very early 2nds. Mid-late 2nds are what teams load up on under the old system so doubt itll be the same.

Also futures wont be worth much. Our F1 in 2026 will be for 2027, which is the tassie draft. I doubt teams will be lining up for that pick. And futures 2 years in advance will be worth very little.

I like Pommy but wouldnt take his word as gospel on this. I dont believe anybody has even seen the points table.

I reckon we get him but probably have to trade F1 and go into deficit so would want to hold our future picks next year. Obviously big difference if he goes 1 vs 10 too.

If any players leave next year we may elect for future picks to help us out further.