Training 2024 Pre-Season discussion

[Turbocat]

Cam Guthrie and Holmes were both first round, not second round.

While technically correct, imo "Round" has become a very ambiguous way to grade players.

P1 compared to P18 .. is bad enough but some years the first round goes far later. Just last year in 2023 ...Carlton picked Moir at p29 and that was a R1 pick. Other years the 29th rated player in a draft is deep into R2. The adding of clubs in 2010 and 2011 and the aligned bid players have really messed up the value of describing players by the round they are taken

 

[michelzing]

Tommy Stewart also second round now I think about it.

Tom Stewart taken at pick 40 - he falls into the rookie/40 + draft pick group

 

[michelzing]

For the purposes of assessing our recruitment, the fact that these successes were our natural non-traded pick in the first round (i.e. the earliest available selection by standard draft rules) is probably more relevant than what number they happened to be.

You’ve also excluded Tim Kelly, one of the better 2nd-round picks of the past decade.

Correct - I thought of him after my post along with Lincoln MCarthy - and there's probably more
It's more to illustrate how we seemed to use our early picks better to trade than select for a period of time - whilst at the same time we were hugely successful when picking rookies and later picks

 

[bombersboy]

I understand the 'feeling' that we've drafted better recently, but the numbers suggest otherwise. I know a lot of our young guys look promising, but the bulk of that has been in the VFL. We haven't had many youngsters show much at AFL level, especially in comparison to the rest of the competition.

From the 2019 draft to today, we've had the second fewest games from our draftees (ND only).

View attachment 1906495

The players we've drafted in those years are:

View attachment 1906499

Not that surprising. Upper part of that list reflects clubs turning over their lists trying to find players. Melbourne is the outlier. We had a very stable and largely durable side.

 

[CHAWKTS]

I thought Dempsey was unfairly subbed off in the loss versus Richmond. He looked quite lively across half forward. A bit like Neale, he looked very nervous in front of goal, despite being a reliable shot at lower level. I don’t think that is a problem that will persist with either of them.

I hope he gets his shot in round 1 through very good form in the upcoming practice games.

I am a believer.

I believe in both him and Neale. They are probably competing (despite being different) for that rotation forward role in 2024 unless injuries opens opportunities

 

[CHAWKTS]

So interesting bit I heard today from the last match sim of pre season…

Media was there (lots of them) so CS decided to not give them anything and for the first time pick even teams! Mixed it up. So Jezza and Hawk on different teams for example. Henry and SDK different. Stengle and Close opposite and MF mixed up.

Scott playing games already!

 

[Turbocat]

Did I see its predicted to be 37 ..for thursday when we are to have our game trial?

 

[Kobe Gryant]

There is a lot of skewness in these types of comparisons, clubs can bringing in 5 to 10 more kids onto there list in the same time period, pump a bunch of early games into them and only gain an extra long term player from the group.

E.g Richmond last year.

Got a lot of games into kids when the season was shot...but you wouldn't be pinning your hopes on any of them.

Ironically, the one who didn't play is probably the best of them in Gibcus.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Did I see its predicted to be 37 ..for thursday when we are to have our game trial?

36 according to the BOM. You'd reckon they might push it back to a 5pm start time or something like that.

 

[Vivy]

Did I see its predicted to be 37 ..for thursday when we are to have our game trial?

Seems about right. Screengrab is for the area around Ikon Park. Very hot very quickly.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

36 according to the BOM. You'd reckon they might push it back to a 5pm start time or something like that.

I just hope they don't go and call off the last 4 quarters as a result of they push it back

 

[CHAWKTS]

Seems about right. Screengrab is for the area around Ikon Park. Very hot very quickly.

View attachment 1907045

Will be interesting how they play it then. For Carlton this is a very important practise game given the play in round 0 so I think they are likely to want to rest some players for second practise game. And they play in Brisbane in March (albeit at night) so will be happy for the practise in the heat!

My understanding was that they were definitely going to have 6 on the AFL bench and were thinking of 8. And people were going to play 60-65% game time. That works for AFL team but have less left for VFL game (although assume we are playing a few from VFL list?) and they will be playing in the peak heat!

Of course predicting Melbourne weather isn’t exactly a (good) science!

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Tom Stewart taken at pick 40 - he falls into the rookie/40 + draft pick group

Ok, I agree with your valuation of picks criteria in that round drift erodes pick value but I think it's not really relevant to your main point.

Your assessment is based on whether we've made the right decisions with what we've had then claiming our second rounders don't count because they were picked so late.

I think have to take the round out of the discussion and do the selections in finite brackets and assess our performance on that. Otherwise how much of your comparison is just against us having the TK trade haul bump our hand in better drafts.

Which is another point because some drafts were just duds in that era. Look at the youth polling Brownlow votes now, it's not just Daicos missing out through injury and Gulden in the top 5. There's kids everywhere in it last year. Gen Z doesn't drink or party anything like we did. They're dedicated.

I agree with your assessment overall that we've drafted well though, but would add a few more question marks:

"However in recent years our early draft picks have been, Clarke, Knevitt, Conway, Willis, Sullivan, Mannagh, Edwards - While Edwards will take some time - the only real question mark in that lot is Willis"

I would say Knevitt still has to transition to on ball a bit to remove all questions, Conway has durability questions, Mannagh looked good but hasn't been tested so there's questions there, and I like Edwards ruck work but we're 3-4 years away so there's a metric tonne of questions there.

A lot changes year to year

 

[Footy Smarts]

I hadn't realised it was 4 quarters AFL then 4 quarters VFL. I thought it was going to be 8 quarters with players rotating through like we've had the last few years.

That probably means selection will actually tell us a bit. If it's 8 on the bench and assuming we hold a few back until the Essendon practice match there will probably only be 12-15 AFL listed players running around in the VFL. But it'll tell us who definitely isn't in consideration for round 1.

It'll be interesting to see if there is a bolter out there in the AFL. Willis? Murdoch? Foster? One of the new players other than COS or Mannagh?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I hadn't realised it was 4 quarters AFL then 4 quarters VFL. I thought it was going to be 8 quarters with players rotating through like we've had the last few years.

That probably means selection will actually tell us a bit. If it's 8 on the bench and assuming we hold a few back until the Essendon practice match there will probably only be 12-15 AFL listed players running around in the VFL. But it'll tell us who definitely isn't in consideration for round 1.

It'll be interesting to see if there is a bolter out there in the AFL. Willis? Murdoch? Foster? One of the new players other than COS or Mannagh?

In the afl 'A' team on thursday i reckon we will definitely see COS and neale (in case blitz is in doubt for round 1), mannagh and dempsey for sure, clark and knevitt and maybe mullin. I dont expect to see any of the other recent draftees except maybe stevens.

 

[BORIS332]

In the afl 'A' team on thursday i reckon we will definitely see COS and neale (in case blitz is in doubt for round 1), mannagh and dempsey for sure, clark and knevitt and maybe mullin. I dont expect to see any of the other recent draftees except maybe stevens.

Given CS recent comments on Mullin, he's very likely.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Given CS recent comments on Mullin, he's very likely.

Yeah the fact that Bews has been in B teams during training a lot makes fast tracking mullin more likely.

 

[Mr Meow]

Yeah the fact that Bews has been in B teams during training a lot makes fast tracking mullin more likely.

The question I have is who makes way for Mullin?

A quick, lockdown defender who adds a "splash of dash" from the defensive half is definitely a need.

I figured O'Connor may be given the role, or even Bowes (speed/defensive lockdown capacity question marks though).

I could see two of these three players fitting in the same side, but not all of them without injuries to Duncan/Zuthrie/Stewart.

It'll be interesting to see which way they go.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Given CS recent comments on Mullin, he's very likely.

I count 33 that I would be shocked if they're running around in the VFL against Carlton next week.

Assuming it's 8 on the bench so a team of 26 I'm guessing we'll just leave 7 to just have 1 preseason match rather than leave someone like Mullin, Bews, Clark, O'Sullivan, Mannagh, etc running around in the VFL which from the outside would seem a bit of a statement.

Most interesting would be if one of the guys I assume will be playing VFL (Hardie, Murphy, Jeka, Wiltshire, Humphries, Willis, Clohesy, Foster, Murdoch, Stevens and Edwards) get selected in the AFL team.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

I count 33 that I would be shocked if they're running around in the VFL against Carlton next week.

Assuming it's 8 on the bench so a team of 26 I'm guessing we'll just leave 7 to just have 1 preseason match rather than leave someone like Mullin, Bews, Clark, O'Sullivan, Mannagh, etc running around in the VFL which from the outside would seem a bit of a statement.

Most interesting would be if one of the guys I assume will be playing VFL (Hardie, Murphy, Jeka, Wiltshire, Humphries, Willis, Clohesy, Foster, Murdoch, Stevens and Edwards) get selected in the AFL team.

They might mix it up and have a few seniors in the final 4 quarters like Atkins last year.
Will be interesting to see Bews and Thuoy make the first.
I'd imagine they'd rather give fringe players a vfl hit out than not play them at all.

 

[CHAWKTS]

I hadn't realised it was 4 quarters AFL then 4 quarters VFL. I thought it was going to be 8 quarters with players rotating through like we've had the last few years.

That probably means selection will actually tell us a bit. If it's 8 on the bench and assuming we hold a few back until the Essendon practice match there will probably only be 12-15 AFL listed players running around in the VFL. But it'll tell us who definitely isn't in consideration for round 1.

It'll be interesting to see if there is a bolter out there in the AFL. Willis? Murdoch? Foster? One of the new players other than COS or Mannagh?

It is definitely 6 on the bench - 2 rotations for each “line” with the possibility of 8 by adding an extra ruckman (Toby) and MF rotation.

I am not 100% there will be a bolster with only COS in my view being a possibility. But even then narrowing down to 8 defenders is not easy (you should have a crack).

I posted early my view of the 8 for each line. I am confident I have it right on the forwards (I don’t have Mannagh in that 8) and it is hard to find room for bolters on the other lines either (especially if they are going to give a go to those older players who might drop out of best 23 - eg. Bews, Parfitt). The bolters really only fit into a “best 30” type discussion I think?

 

[CHAWKTS]

Yeah the fact that Bews has been in B teams during training a lot makes fast tracking mullin more likely.

That was where my head was at until the Holmes experiment. Neither Mullin nor holmes are lockdown so suspect only one can be a running half back (although we already have Duncan!). Going to be an interesting watch

 

[CHAWKTS]

In the afl 'A' team on thursday i reckon we will definitely see COS and neale (in case blitz is in doubt for round 1), mannagh and dempsey for sure, clark and knevitt and maybe mullin. I dont expect to see any of the other recent draftees except maybe stevens.

I agree with your sentiments PO - based on how pleased they are with COS, Neale, Mullin, Mannah etc

But when you actually ”do the maths” for a 8 person per line (and maybe add in 2 more spares on bench - Toby and one other utility) you just simply can’t fit more than a few of those names in.

I dont think they are resting anyone for Thursday (subject to anyone being sore) and I wouldn’t be suprised if they give Bews and Parfitt a crack despite maybe being out of best 23 (it is easier to tell someone new or young they haven’t quite done enough than to effectively stamp a mature player fighting for a spot this early?)

In an earlier post (I think under Round 1 team) I had a crack at squad for this thursday. Wasn’t easy even with 24 and 26 sqaud.

I had Dempsey and Neale as my two forward rotations (on top of the 6 locks). I am pretty confident but will post to say I was wrong (to you) if Mannagh sneaks in (unless he sneaks as that extra utility if we have 26 players)

I had 2E and Holmes as my back rotation in addition to the 6 “locks”. Now there is a risk that Kolo doesn’t play and that Holmes takes a MF spot - in that case we would have 2 spots in the backline (could go to Bews, Mullin, MOC - who I have in MF so that is just a swap with Holmes)

In mids I had Bowes and Parfitt as my 2 rotation on top of my 6 locks (one of which was MOC on the wing).

If they add the extra 2 on the bench it would be Toby and one other which I would think would be Knevitt in terms of pecking order but could be Mannagh or Clark or COS - but I think they will all be playing VFL game

It really isnt that easy (which is a good thing). I just think for practise match they are likely to squeeze in Parfitt and Bews and Bowes and 2E even if there are question marks. Can’t stamp them this early

 

[CHAWKTS]

I count 33 that I would be shocked if they're running around in the VFL against Carlton next week.

Assuming it's 8 on the bench so a team of 26 I'm guessing we'll just leave 7 to just have 1 preseason match rather than leave someone like Mullin, Bews, Clark, O'Sullivan, Mannagh, etc running around in the VFL which from the outside would seem a bit of a statement.

Most interesting would be if one of the guys I assume will be playing VFL (Hardie, Murphy, Jeka, Wiltshire, Humphries, Willis, Clohesy, Foster, Murdoch, Stevens and Edwards) get selected in the AFL team.

I think they are playing whoever is available this week. Expecting same from Carlton. They will play 24-26 so players only getting 60-65% game time. If they do rest a couple of “locks” it will be the following week (even then I don’t think they will unless players are sore - given there is 8 days between practise games and then 15 days between last practice and round 1). I think we might find less “discovery” this year in the practice games.

 

[CHAWKTS]

The question I have is who makes way for Mullin?

A quick, lockdown defender who adds a "splash of dash" from the defensive half is definitely a need.

I figured O'Connor may be given the role, or even Bowes (speed/defensive lockdown capacity question marks though).

I could see two of these three players fitting in the same side, but not all of them without injuries to Duncan/Zuthrie/Stewart.

It'll be interesting to see which way they go.

Agree. This is difficult.

Assuming the 23 is made up of 7 back, 7 forwards and 8 MF plus a sub (understand some back move between a couple of lines)

Especially if Holmes experiment gets any traction (I can’t see it personally but my opinion doesnt matter!). Without injury there is as you say one spot come round 1. (Locks are SDK, Steward, Duncan, Zurthrie, Henry and Kolo) unless Kolo falls out.

I think they want to play MOC on the wing (Blitz on the other side) which again I am sceptical about…so maybe that 7th rotation is Holmes or MOC. Which means for Mullin to make it (without injury) both Holmes and MOC need to play MF. And I haven’t included 2E yet (and not Bews)!!

Bowes I think can only make it as a “utility” for MF/Back? Or likely a good sub (I would use 2E as sub personally)

I had a crack under Round 1 team and it was very difficult - backs I think the hardest