Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 2

[Scorpus]

Spoiler: Older Rumors

I've deleted confirmed information

Rumor summary September 30

• FiveAA claims we are after Scott Borlace, current Head of Development at Brisbane (link)
• Claims of Rory Sloane
  9

  Rory Sloane

  Age

  34

  Ht

  183cm

  Wt

  87kg

  Pos.

  Mid

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  23.7

  5star

  K

  11.7

  4star

  HB

  11.9

  5star

  M

  3.5

  4star

  T

  6.6

  5star

  CL

  5.7

  5star

  D

  15.3

  4star

  K

  7.3

  3star

  HB

  8.0

  4star

  M

  1.3

  1star

  T

  3.3

  4star

  CL

  4.2

  5star

  D

  22.2

  5star

  K

  8.6

  4star

  HB

  13.6

  5star

  M

  3.2

  4star

  T

  6.0

  5star

  CL

  4.6

  5star

  heading to Melbourne Demons as a development coach, but maybe not before asking for a job at the Crows first?
• Inside Trading suggests we are interested in Gold Coast's pick 12 (link)
• Inside Trading also suggests Clayton Oliver
  13

  Clayton Oliver

  Age

  27

  Ht

  189cm

  Wt

  88kg

  Pos.

  Mid

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  27.8

  5star

  K

  9.5

  4star

  HB

  18.4

  5star

  M

  3.2

  3star

  T

  6.3

  5star

  CL

  6.3

  5star

  D

  25.1

  5star

  K

  11.1

  4star

  HB

  14.0

  5star

  M

  3.6

  4star

  T

  5.6

  5star

  CL

  5.9

  5star

  D

  19.2

  5star

  K

  4.6

  2star

  HB

  14.6

  5star

  M

  2.0

  3star

  T

  4.4

  5star

  CL

  3.8

  5star

  is possibly back on the trade table, but doesn't link him to any specific clubs

Rumor summary October 1

• We have offered Darcy Fogarty
  32

  Darcy Fogarty

  Age

  25

  Ht

  194cm

  Wt

  100kg

  Pos.

  Fwd

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  8.5

  2star

  K

  5.7

  2star

  HB

  2.8

  2star

  M

  3.7

  4star

  T

  1.7

  4star

  G

  1.2

  4star

  D

  6.3

  1star

  K

  4.0

  1star

  HB

  2.3

  2star

  M

  3.0

  3star

  T

  2.3

  3star

  G

  1.0

  4star

  D

  8.0

  2star

  K

  5.4

  2star

  HB

  2.6

  3star

  M

  3.4

  4star

  T

  2.6

  4star

  G

  1.0

  4star

  a five year contract extension early ahead of free agency (link)
• We are attempting to lure Graham Wright to our football department (link)

Rumor summary October 2-3

• Graham Wright, who we are chasing as a head of football, is also being chased by Carlton for a CEO position (link)

Rumor summary October 4-5

• Gettable claiming pick 25 for Neal-Bullen and a future 2nd for Peatling (link)

Rumor summary October 6

• Tom Morris claims we are open to splitting pick 4 (link)

Rumor summary October 7

• No new rumors, although Justin Reid confirmed we'll use pick 28 on Neal-Bullen

 

[cleanhands]

How long before the first NRL player is under police investigation after the GF?

 

[spenze]

My god this board is hard to read.

We can use smaller words to help you...

 

[crow2crow]

You talking how they got the replacement goal keeper?

you clearly seen it. they showed it to us at primary school. you never forget it.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

How long before the first NRL player is under police investigation after the GF?

What happened?

 

[cleanhands]

What happened?

Haven’t heard anything YET, some barley hops in them look out

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Haven’t heard anything YET, some barley hops in them look out

Mad Monday...

 

[cleanhands]

Mad Monday...

When they get on the gas they are about as controlled as Bali belly

 

[119others]

I'll spell it out for you in slow time. Here is the list mathematics since the start of the 2024 season.

We started the 2024 season with 38 senior list players and 4 rookie list players. Since then...
Turray (MSD) - IN - 38 senior 5 rookie
This is where we ended the season. Since then...
Sloane (ret) - OUT - 37 senior 5 rookie
Hamill (delist) - OUT - 37 senior 4 rookie
Parnell (delist) - OUT - 37 senior 3 rookie
McHenry (delist) - OUT - 36 senior 3 rookie
Gollant (delist) - OUT - 35 senior 3 rookie
Himmelberg (FA) - OUT - 34 senior 3 rookie
Cumming (FA) - IN - 35 senior 3 rookie
ANB (trade) - IN - 36 senior 3 rookie

When Peatling arrives, it will be 37 senior 3 rookie. That leaves just 2 vacancies combined, across our senior and Cat A rookie lists.

The AFL mandates that clubs make a minimum of 3 selections at the ND, with rookie upgrades counting towards the total. The only way we can satisfy this is by upgrading 1 rookie (most likely Keane), and transferring 2 contracted players from the senior list to the rookie list. This will leave us with 36 senior and 4 rookie.

The process of transferring players from the senior list to the rookie list requires them to be delisted before the ND, and then re-drafted in the RD. Thus, we can look forward to 2 senior listed players being delisted at some point, with the media release noting that we are committed to re-drafting them in the RD.

It is possible that Smith will be one of these transferred players. It is extremely unlikely that Laird will be transferred.

The only way we end up with any additional draft selections is if one of our contracted players is delisted or traded, or if one of the delisted senior players signs with another club as a DFA. None of these are likely outcomes.

** All the above calculations ignore Gallagher, who is a Cat B rookie. Cat B rookies are additional to the maximum 42 senior + Cat A rookie list players.

Vader, thanks as always for having your head around the rules and communicating them in such an effective way.

Quick one that you may know the answer to:

With our Welsh pick which looks mid 40’s (clearly will change on draft night if not before if more FA compo handed out eg EDIT Graham). What happens on draft night IF say he is bid on relatively early at the equivalent of pick 30 (after allowing for discount) means we are quite short with pick 45 ish. (629 points needed for pick 30 compared to our pick 45 worth 347 or a deficit of 282 points = pick 50).

With our pick failing to cover the points adequately and ASSUMING we can’t cover this with trades, where does this deficit get adjusted IF the Welsh bid is in the second round AND we don’t have a second round pick in 2025 (very likely used for Peatling).

Does the deficit “roll forward” then to 2026 instead? Or does another round under that circumstance (either round one or round 3) get pushed back and adjusted in 2025? Clearly pushing back our first round pick would be a shocker esp as the current points system materially over values later round picks relative to early picks, meaning an artificially high carried forward deficit.

Unlikely to happen as can probably get a pick 50 by perhaps swapping our future third with a gun clubs future third (Lions etc) but wondering if you could pls clarify

 

[crow2crow]

Vader, thanks as always for having your head around the rules and communicating them in such an effective way.

Quick one that you may know the answer to:

With our Welsh pick which looks mid 40’s (clearly will change on draft night if not before if more FA compo handed out eg Baker). What happens on draft night IF say he is bid on relatively early at the equivalent of pick 30 (after allowing for discount) means we are quite short with pick 45 ish. (629 points needed for pick 30 compared to our pick 45 worth 347 or a deficit of 282 points = pick 50).

With our pick failing to cover the points adequately and ASSUMING we can’t cover this with trades, where does this deficit get adjusted IF the Welsh bid is in the second round AND we don’t have a second round pick in 2025 (very likely used for Peatling).

Does the deficit “roll forward” then to 2026 instead? Or does another round under that circumstance (either round one or round 3) get pushed back and adjusted in 2025? Clearly pushing back our first round pick would be a shocker esp as the current points system materially over values later round picks relative to early picks.

Unlikely to happen as can probably get a pick 50 by perhaps swapping our future third with a gun clubs future third (Lions etc) but wondering if you could pls clarify

it wont move the F1 unless he was taken in the first round and we didnt have enough points. they will sort it out - chill

 

[119others]

it wont move the F1 unless he was taken in the first round and we didnt have enough points. they will sort it out - chill

Thanks, I am very chilled but seeking the proper answer. Do you have it?

 

[triggyscrewedus]

Prefer we leave Max in defence as a gun defender.

We have better midfield options imo.

Agree Max is a gun defender,
He should be given every opportunity to find his ceiling though.
He has the tools to play mid and be a weapon.

 

[119others]

Who has ever suggested that Reid was weak with trading?

I thought the suggestion was that he was a bit difficult. Wasn't that in one of the articles mid-year?

Yep, in here somewhere mate

How low can they crow - The Advertiser special series on all things crows

COACHES How Low Can They Crow: Matthew Nicks, Adelaide’s coaching panel and the loss of James Rahilly The Crows targeted two former senior coaches to join Matthew Nicks’ panel for 2024, but were turned down. See who they chased as we investigate Adelaide’s coaching set-up. Simeon Thomas-Wilson...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Vader]

Vader, thanks as always for having your head around the rules and communicating them in such an effective way.

Quick one that you may know the answer to:

With our Welsh pick which looks mid 40’s (clearly will change on draft night if not before if more FA compo handed out eg Baker). What happens on draft night IF say he is bid on relatively early at the equivalent of pick 30 (after allowing for discount) means we are quite short with pick 45 ish. (629 points needed for pick 30 compared to our pick 45 worth 347 or a deficit of 282 points = pick 50).

With our pick failing to cover the points adequately and ASSUMING we can’t cover this with trades, where does this deficit get adjusted IF the Welsh bid is in the second round AND we don’t have a second round pick in 2025 (very likely used for Peatling).

Does the deficit “roll forward” then to 2026 instead? Or does another round under that circumstance (either round one or round 3) get pushed back and adjusted in 2025? Clearly pushing back our first round pick would be a shocker esp as the current points system materially over values later round picks relative to early picks.

Unlikely to happen as can probably get a pick 50 by perhaps swapping our future third with a gun clubs future third (Lions etc) but wondering if you could pls clarify

I'm not sure what happens if the we're unable to match a 2nd round bid, and don't have a 2025 2nd round pick. I suspect the points would come off our 2025 1st round pick.

The pick probably wouldn't slide too far given that we'd be able to pay some of it with 2024 points, and the relative disparity in point values of 1st and 2nd round picks.

We'd definitely have to pay using 2025 points, it's just a matter of which 2025 pick goes backwards.

 

[crow2crow]

Thanks, I am very chilled but seeking the proper answer. Do you have it?

it cant move F1. the rest is murky as we dont have F2 (peatling). i think reid will try to avoid this situation by trading F3 into 2024.

 

[119others]

I'm not sure what happens if the we're unable to match a 2nd round bid, and don't have a 2025 2nd round pick. I suspect the points would come off our 2025 1st round pick.

The pick probably wouldn't slide too far given that we'd be able to pay some of it with 2024 points, and the relative disparity in point values of 1st and 2nd round picks.

We'd definitely have to pay using 2025 points, it's just a matter of which 2025 pick goes backwards.

Ok many thanks. Ideally no sliding in first round of 2025.

I even wondered whether there was any potential risk to GWS in obtaining our second rounder for 2025 ie whether they would bear any risk of the second round pick downgrade despite the change of ownership of the pick from us to Giants. Logic says no as it wouldn’t be fair and reasonable but just wonder if the AFL has mandated for this situation- which looks at least possible if not probable - for us this year. If they need to make a ruling on it….we are screwed

Thanks again

 

[crow2crow]

Ok many thanks. Ideally no sliding in first round of 2025.

I even wondered whether there was any potential risk to GWS in obtaining our second rounder for 2025 ie whether they would bear any risk of the second round pick downgrade despite the change of ownership of the pick from us to Giants. Logic says no as it wouldn’t be fair and reasonable but just wonder if the AFL has mandated for this situation- which looks at least possible if not probable - for us this year. If they need to make a ruling on it….we are screwed

Thanks again

its not rocket science either reid gets a third back from gws as part of the peatling deal or he does a separate trade of our f3 for a third this year which will give us enough points

we will not be going negative next year unless he got bid on first round which is extremely unlikely

 

[Vader]

Ok many thanks. Ideally no sliding in first round of 2025.

It's unlikely that a bid will come early enough to cause problems.

I even wondered whether there was any potential risk to GWS in obtaining our second rounder for 2025 ie whether they would bear any risk of the second round pick downgrade despite the change of ownership of the pick from us to Giants. Logic says no as it wouldn’t be fair and reasonable but just wonder if the AFL has mandated for this situation- which looks at least possible if not probable - for us this year. If they need to make a ruling on it….we are screwed

Yeah, GWS definitely won't be affected.

Thanks again

 

[Vader]

The attached document dates back to 2015, when the bidding system was first introduced. Page 8 states that:

If a Nominating Club does not have enough points to secure a F/S or Academy selection in a given Draft, the point required will carry over to the Club's first selection the following year.

• In this case, point will be deducted prior to the trade period to ensure the Nominating Club pays its points deb, rather than trades picks away.
• Clubs will not be eligible to participate in the bidding sytem if they still owe points going into the next draft.

This would indicate that points do NOT come off the round where bid is received, but off the first round pick.

Note that the document is very old (2015), and the rules around this may have changed - most likely with the introduction of trading future picks.

 

[crow2crow]

The attached document dates back to 2015, when the bidding system was first introduced. Page 8 states that:

This would indicate that points do NOT come off the round where bid is received, but off the first round pick.

Note that the document is very old (2015), and the rules around this may have changed - most likely with the introduction of trading future picks.

It changed. Its definitely the round its picked in.

 

[relapse]

It changed. Its definitely the round its picked in.

Are you sure, I'm fairly certain the same rules apply.

You don't lose the pick, just the points are subtracted from the pick and it sides back to where it's value sits.

It happened a couple of years ago with the Dockers and their first rounder slid back the next season due to being in deficit.

Hypothetically if a team was 400 points in deficit and they had Pick 5 the next season that pick would slide back to 9 to cover the deficit.

 

[GameofSloanes]

Chris Burgess won the VFL goal kicking twice, should Brisbane ask us for a trade for him?

Oooh yes please

Yes i know you were being sarcastic. Unfortunately

 

[Mutineer]

It changed. Its definitely the round its picked in.

Yeah pretty sure I heard one of the AFL talking heads mention that, just not sure it was for 2024 or in the future.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I'm not sure what happens if the we're unable to match a 2nd round bid, and don't have a 2025 2nd round pick. I suspect the points would come off our 2025 1st round pick.

The pick probably wouldn't slide too far given that we'd be able to pay some of it with 2024 points, and the relative disparity in point values of 1st and 2nd round picks.

We'd definitely have to pay using 2025 points, it's just a matter of which 2025 pick goes backwards.

Surely it would come off our future 3rd?

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Are you sure, I'm fairly certain the same rules apply.

You don't lose the pick, just the points are subtracted from the pick and it sides back to where it's value sits.

It happened a couple of years ago with the Dockers and their first rounder slid back the next season due to being in deficit.

Hypothetically if a team was 400 points in deficit and they had Pick 5 the next season that pick would slide back to 9 to cover the deficit.

Didn’t the bid come in the first round though?

 

[Chances Are]

Yeah pretty sure I heard one of the AFL talking heads mention that, just not sure it was for 2024 or in the future.

I thought that was meant to be coming in 2025 and this would remain the same.