List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.1

[gringo2011]

We've got a history of holding on too long to players until they have zero value.

Could have set ourselves up by now if we were braver with a few of the following:

Armitage
Steven
Ross
Bruce
Membrey
Billings
Clark
Howard

Gresham the exception

Like me and all the shit in my garage that I should sell or dump but I hold onto it because "we'll need it one of these days"

With Trout we would have just burnt the picks anyway. Saints fans are the only fans that see pick in the draft as the aim of footy. For a club that has wasted more picks than any other we are a weird lot. Pretty much would have been a bottom 4 club for the last 15 years.

Just so you know the idea is to stockpile enough good players to make a challenge at a top 4 spot and then hope it's enough. Moving one in and one out just puts you in a mediocrity or rebuilding cycle as we've hopefully learnt.

 

[Sully111]

what quality? I’m embarrassed for the last 14 years, and finally I’m confident we have the right admin the right recruiting staff and rights coaches, now stop whining and give them time to turn this rabble of a club into a great team

What makes you think Robert Harvey is the right forwards coach?

What makes you think Goddard is the right midfield coach?

What are you basing your assumptions on?

Not all criticism is whining. It only seems that way to people who don't agree with it.

 

[phantom13]

I reckon if you do the stats you'd find it still isn't until the 3rd or 4th year that mids start to own the midfield despite good games before that. We don't need a bit player. We need a top shelf mid. Guys like Serong seemed to hit the ground running but didn't become an absolute side carrier until years 3 or 4. Same with guys like Butters. Probably year three or four. Chad Warner year 4 was his break out. Gulden again broke out last year in year three.

All of them noted for coming on quickly.

I think it’s dependent on the overall strategy and the midfield they go into.

If Smith walks into the Carlton midfield right now and is third behind Cripps and Walsh (Hewett doing the defensive mid work) he’s probably gonna be ****ing unreal.

If we’re dropping for a year to get one, also trade pick 5 for LDU then our pick 4 probably has every chance to be a first year freak.

 

[StCicatriz]

With Trout we would have just burnt the picks anyway. Saints fans are the only fans that see pick in the draft as the aim of footy. For a club that has wasted more picks than any other we are a weird lot. Pretty much would have been a bottom 4 club for the last 15 years.

Just so you know the idea is to stockpile enough good players to make a challenge at a top 4 spot and then hope it's enough. Moving one in and one out just puts you in a mediocrity or rebuilding cycle as we've hopefully learnt.

spot on. whom ever said we are chasing our loses is correct. everytime we get a new list boss and recruiter they're suddenly going to be better than the last.

still remember birdman defending libba to the death. don't think there's anyone on here who would defend libba now. also trouts 2IC and very vocal in emma's book on Mccartin.

they've just literally had NFI for the best part of two decades.

 

[stfan]

I know and I got it. I'm not here to lecture. I've had experience - on both sides - of an anonymous forum where you don't know what people are dealing with their lives. An off-hand comment like that can absolutely ruin your day and put you in a very bad place. The words are that you they die. I know you dont, but the words stick in your head when you already are dealing with that. It works when you know the person personally and can see the person, when they can see your face. Reading the words cold like that... it's a form of bantz that doesn't work in anon text is all, no biggie.

Yes I take your point.

Though one can also reach out to others too. On a different Saints Forum I became aware that one forumite who I had never met was very ill and dying and could no longer attend the games. We corresponded privately for a while. When he had not long to go I reached out to the Club and they arranged a private session at training for him and his two young sons where he also met with our head coach of the time, as well as players.

 

[StCicatriz]

If we’re dropping for a year to get one, also trade pick 5 for LDU then our pick 4 probably has every chance to be a first year freak.

what are you basing that on? harley reid?

there's plenty of busts at pick 4 and if memory serves me correct they don't tend to be mids at that point. more guys you are hoping to moving into that spot. there seems to always be small fwds and half forward types who have shown stints through the midfield. its very hit and miss and very dependant on the draft pool for that year.


here's you pick 4 and 5 taking out ineligible father sons and academy players

2010: Gaff Polec
2011: WHE Buntine
2012: Thoupmpas Stringer
2013: Bont Kolodjashnij
2014: Pickett DeGoey
2015: Parish Francis
2016: Ainswerth SPS
2017: LDU Cerra
2018: King Rozzee
2019: Ash Stephens
2020: Grainger-Barrass Hollands
2021: Rachele Ward
2022: Tstas Humphrey
2023: Duursma Watson

that's before you consider that we will probably climb the ladder somewhat, it gets worse from there.

also the idea LDU is coming... based on what exactly?

 

[Mstr Strokesman]

Should Battle happen to give us a pick after our first, I am not giving it to Norf for LUD.
Better to pick him up for free next year.

 

[stavro#4]

With Trout we would have just burnt the picks anyway. Saints fans are the only fans that see pick in the draft as the aim of footy. For a club that has wasted more picks than any other we are a weird lot. Pretty much would have been a bottom 4 club for the last 15 years.

Just so you know the idea is to stockpile enough good players to make a challenge at a top 4 spot and then hope it's enough. Moving one in and one out just puts you in a mediocrity or rebuilding cycle as we've hopefully learnt.

spot on. whom ever said we are chasing our loses is correct. everytime we get a new list boss and recruiter they're suddenly going to be better than the last.

still remember birdman defending libba to the death. don't think there's anyone on here who would defend libba now. also trouts 2IC and very vocal in emma's book on Mccartin.

they've just literally had NFI for the best part of two decades.

I’d say SOS has a more proven MO with valuing his current list and getting max value for particular assets.

He lost a lot of good footballers at Carlton. Not always by choice. But still ensuring max values and he clearly held high regards for first rounders.

He was either home run or miss in the draft. But has Dalrymple here.

This is probably the first time we have had someone apply this type of measure to the list and its construction.

Pelican was all about drafting with a wide net.

Gags very much wanted proven talent for his picks

And in between both the club just out smarted itself - by over thinking about future state and costs of players and focusing on behaviours and backgrounds as opposed to football talent.

 

[phantom13]

what are you basing that on? harley reid?

there's plenty of busts at pick 4 and if memory serves me correct they don't tend to be mids at that point. more guys you are hoping to moving into that spot. there seems to always be small fwds and half forward types who have shown stints through the midfield. its very hit and miss and very dependant on the draft pool for that year.


here's you pick 4 and 5 taking out ineligible father sons and academy players

2010: Gaff Polec
2011: WHE Buntine
2012: Thoupmpas Stringer
2013: Bont Kolodjashnij
2014: Pickett DeGoey
2015: Parish Francis
2016: Ainswerth SPS
2017: LDU Cerra
2018: King Rozzee
2019: Ash Stephens
2020: Grainger-Barrass Hollands
2021: Rachele Ward
2022: Tstas Humphrey
2023: Duursma Watson

that's before you consider that we will probably climb the ladder somewhat, it gets worse from there.

also the idea LDU is coming... based on what exactly?

Relax, it was making the hypothetical point that if we did all the right things our pick 4 could be a first year star. We’re probably gonna do none of those things and they’ll need a few years to develop.

 

[StCicatriz]

Should Battle happen to give us a pick after our first, I am not giving it to Norf for LUD.
Better to pick him up for free next year.

Let's be honest its the earliest any other club will get their hands on him as there is absolutely no way north is going to trade him.

Would we trade LDU if we had him?

 

[stavro#4]

what are you basing that on? harley reid?

there's plenty of busts at pick 4 and if memory serves me correct they don't tend to be mids at that point. more guys you are hoping to moving into that spot. there seems to always be small fwds and half forward types who have shown stints through the midfield. its very hit and miss and very dependant on the draft pool for that year.


here's you pick 4 and 5 taking out ineligible father sons and academy players

2010: Gaff Polec
2011: WHE Buntine
2012: Thoupmpas Stringer
2013: Bont Kolodjashnij
2014: Pickett DeGoey
2015: Parish Francis
2016: Ainswerth SPS
2017: LDU Cerra
2018: King Rozzee
2019: Ash Stephens
2020: Grainger-Barrass Hollands
2021: Rachele Ward
2022: Tstas Humphrey
2023: Duursma Watson

that's before you consider that we will probably climb the ladder somewhat, it gets worse from there.

also the idea LDU is coming... based on what exactly?

You can’t remove father sons or academy picks and say the next pick how it would have ended up

players like Ashcroft Darcy and daicos etc would still be the 1/2/3 best players in the draft

 

[StCicatriz]

You can’t remove father sons or academy picks and say the next pick how it would have ended up

players like Ashcroft Darcy and daicos etc would still be the 1/2/3 best players in the draft

What are you about? You want us to consider players we could never draft?

That's redic.

The whole point is what we can get for pick 4 and 5. Not an outcome that can never eventuate.

Might as well just include pick 1.

 

[phantom13]

Should Battle happen to give us a pick after our first, I am not giving it to Norf for LUD.
Better to pick him up for free next year.

I think (and I don’t really care here) if we’re in a fistfight with every other team for a FA we don’t get him.

Using pick 5 is essentially just swapping battle for ldu to ensure we get him.

I wouldn’t hate it.

 

[akaifu]

I rate Henry but the claim was that he's been fantastic. His game against the Pies was fantastic. His latest form has been better but I would have him as alright more than fantastic.

I was the opposite, last year at Freo he had plenty of dominant games around 30 touches on a wing. He looked ready to become a star. We are obviously using him differently but he's been a a bit of a disappointment to me. His kicking is a bit messy but not disgraceful. Hopefully as he gets fitter he gets better because if he never improves on his current form he's a GOP.

I think it's meant to mean "he will be a fantastic pickup" rather than "he has been fantastic", got to think long-term with a player like Henry.

He accumulated touches at Freo because of their game style, not because of his talent. He'd get 30 touches but they were nothing touches. Short 15m kicks up and down the wings, opposition teams love playing against those types of ball users. His 15 touches with us are twice the impact of his 30+ touches at Freo

His kicking was always messy, so that's something we just have to deal with. Focus on his ability to break out of contest and make things happen, that's why we got him

 

[Brian Oblivion]

Just move the Battle convo along with the King Free convo into one thread ..... call it .... Circle Work Jerk

 

[gringo2011]

I think it’s dependent on the overall strategy and the midfield they go into.

If Smith walks into the Carlton midfield right now and is third behind Cripps and Walsh (Hewett doing the defensive mid work) he’s probably gonna be ****ing unreal.

If we’re dropping for a year to get one, also trade pick 5 for LDU then our pick 4 probably has every chance to be a first year freak.

You could always do what Sydney did and let the new kid build up under Luke Parker who should step aside just as the kid becomes ready. You could probably get him free if you take the last year of his contract off the books. LDU is the dream but not sure he'd want in if we finish bottom 4.

 

[gringo2011]

I think it's meant to mean "he will be a fantastic pickup" rather than "he has been fantastic", got to think long-term with a player like Henry.

He accumulated touches at Freo because of their game style, not because of his talent. He'd get 30 touches but they were nothing touches. Short 15m kicks up and down the wings, opposition teams love playing against those types of ball users. His 15 touches with us are twice the impact of his 30+ touches at Freo

His kicking was always messy, so that's something we just have to deal with. Focus on his ability to break out of contest and make things happen, that's why we got him

That's not what he actually said though. To me he adds to a pool of similar outside runners so as an individual he's not that exciting at the moment but what he adds in an extra wave could make that rebound line even stronger if we can fix all the other issues.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Balta would cost as much as Battle if not a lot more. That's if he wants to play for us.

But if we lost Battle & then spend a bit more on Balta we’d still have an additional top 10 pick


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[stavro#4]

What are you about? You want us to consider players we could never draft?

That's redic.

The whole point is what we can get for pick 4 and 5.

Because it’s a flawed concept that implies every club was always taking the very next player as you implied.

And you then say well pick 4 has plenty of busts when you are talking about players taken 6/7/8.

If You are doing a comparison of the draft, you want to show the talent available at the pick.

So in 2021: 4+5 = N Daicos and Mac Andrew.

We don’t know how each club rates the players. But the next 5 picks in the draft:

Rachele Ward Amiss Gibcus Erasmus

It then provides context to the actual strength of the draft.

So in your example, Rachele and Ward. Thats meh

But it could have easily have been Rachele and Amiss or Gibcus.

All of a sudden that’s a good draft based on the potential of the players available

There is also the variable that we are picking back to back picks that you can’t factor in.

Editing my post to add this which just takes the picks at face value.

Over the history of the draft

 

[wannabewinner]

All those who are advocating for a bottom out must be required to buy a full season pass.

Only fair IMO.

 

[austinnn]

With Trout we would have just burnt the picks anyway. Saints fans are the only fans that see pick in the draft as the aim of footy. For a club that has wasted more picks than any other we are a weird lot. Pretty much would have been a bottom 4 club for the last 15 years.

Just so you know the idea is to stockpile enough good players to make a challenge at a top 4 spot and then hope it's enough. Moving one in and one out just puts you in a mediocrity or rebuilding cycle as we've hopefully learnt.

Gee thanks Gringo, when's your next How To Understand Footy seminar?

If you take a look at most of the more successful sides, they'll stockpile talent and then trade one of their gems off to a desperate club (usually us or someone like us) for a better draft hand, and they're not afraid to do it when they're hot, like Swans with Jordan Dawson, or Cats with Tim Kelly or GAJ, or Tigers with Dan Butler or Jack Higgins.

As has been discussed ad infinitum here, we need to game the draft a bit or we will progress too slowly, the chips are just too heavily stacked against us. That takes dare, and timing.

Imagine if we'd sold Armitage when he and Dusty were hanging out, before his back issues destroyed him, we could have had a couple of young guns learning in the middle with Jack Steven. If we'd sold Stuv or Seb after their B&F years, maybe we could have had someone like Butters running around with Steele and Windy right now.

I take your point about Trout though, but who's to say the guys we drafted weren't that bad and we just didn't have the team to develop them properly? Another well-worn convo to which there is no definitive answer.

 

[phantom13]

You could always do what Sydney did and let the new kid build up under Luke Parker who should step aside just as the kid becomes ready. You could probably get him free if you take the last year of his contract off the books. LDU is the dream but not sure he'd want in if we finish bottom 4.

Oh but we’re not finishing bottom 4 next year, that was just a misunderstanding remember x

 

[PoppedCorn]

Oh but we’re not finishing bottom 4 next year, that was just a misunderstanding remember x

 

[phantom13]

Strong username to post

 

[PoppedCorn]

Threads been great.

But i know one thing
If i was offered 800k and then the team i loved as a kid and all my family love, offered me 100k more....i wouldn't even clean out my locker, i would just buy new stuff at the new joint.