Bluemour Discussion Thread III

[Aphrodite]

It's 2017 FFS!


2011

 

[Soapy V]

Not bringing in anyone, we are talking about the best player in the comp.

Where's the salary cap going to in the next 2 years, it's mandatory to pay 95%....we already know Gibbs has been given 2/3 of his long term contract, Murphy would be the same and you can bet your last dollar Cripps also. Where is the 95% of an expanding salary cap going to?

You can pay 4 mill of a 6 year contract to Fyfe in the first 2 years and still have trouble meeting the minimum.

Fyfe is a no brainer

I have said it before but there are heaps of ways to fill the cap and make sure it has space when we are ready. Not an issue.

As for Fyfe I totally disagree. What's the benefit? Realistically we are 5-6 years away from challenging. Fyfe would be well passed him best (26 this year) at this stage and in the meantime has filled up spots for development and in the salary cap where we could get multiple players.

Get the list strong mainly through the draft and in another 2-3 years get the next "Fyfe" that can be with us for 5-6 years when we are challenging

 

[Doro]

And Fev, we'd be winning it not just making a GF.

That Brownlow night was a sliding door moment

Fev was driving the tube train though. Doors closing.. Mind the gap..

 

[katmanblue]

Haha. Schache through the PSD? In the words of the great man : "Tell 'im 'e's dreamin'".

Gotta be worth more than joustin sticks

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[gbatman]

We needed better list management around Judd, not higher draft picks.

Only because we couldn't use our draft picks.

 

[Malifice]

Not bringing in anyone, we are talking about the best player in the comp.

Repeat after me: We wont be challenging till 2021 onwards.

Trying to fast track this time-frame (and our rebuild) is the worst thing we can do in our current situation; we'll just fall flat on our face again once that window opens and crash and burn again, and need to start all over. Again.

We need to get the foundations right this time.

We want to get in players who will be contributing 2021-2025 (and onwards). 24 year olds and under.

 

[Kramer1]

He didn't make many mistakes at GWS...

Hard to judge given the focus was on list building rather than simply best available. Did well with the underage selections, but only fair to middling in the drafts.

 

[Jabba73]

How do we pay the minimum salary cap required if we have 30 kids in the squad and we don't want to revisit the days of overpaying players?

Someone needs to be paid decent dollars and we are about to lose a couple of the dodgy deals done by the previous administration and maybe a retirement or two.

 

[Doro]

Hard to judge given the focus was on list building rather than simply best available. Did well with the underage selections, but only fair to middling in the drafts.

Yep, let the evidence speak for itself. Hughes had a fanboy attacking any negative criticism on here for years. He disappeared. Rogers also had a collection of fanboiz who have gone silent. Hopefully Sos can defend himself via doing a good job.

 

[therubbernub]

I think you missed the point, having a guy like Fyfe is a bit of short term fun. A 25 year old with a suspect back, he might make it to when we're going to be up and about. But good chance he's going to lift all our draft picks up. We might miss out on 5 gun players because all our picks go up 5 spots. Makes getting Fyfe more damaging than beneficial. People don't seem to realise this is what getting Judd did to us. Everything comes at a cost. I don't think we are in a position where having mature age superstars are that valuable. Unless we are absolutely dreadful then I don't think we should go for Fyfe. It's a balancing act, we want to be good enough that our forwards are getting fed well enough to develop but we don't want to be up the middle of the ladder on the back of a few individuals.

Compare Gold coast when GAJ was playing and bringing the other players into the game- they looked genuine finals contenders even as far back as 3 years ago. Then due to injuries his absence brought them way back in the pack. IMO there are only 3 mids in that league GAJ, Fyfe, and Dangerfield. Fyfe would be worth every penny

 

[gbatman]

Compare Gold coast when GAJ was playing and bringing the other players into the game- they looked genuine finals contenders even as far back as 3 years ago. Then due to injuries his absence brought them way back in the pack. IMO there are only 3 mids in that league GAJ, Fyfe, and Dangerfield. Fyfe would be worth every penny

Yeah and they're going terribly. No evidence to suggest that bringing a superstar into a bottom side does that side any good. You're just kidding yourself and denying your side the good draft picks that your side really needs. Fyfe might make us finish mid table when we're really mid bottom 10 and that will hurt us 3-5 years down the track.

We're out to win a flag, not to finish mid table.

 

[F_therest]

I hope he leaves. Its best for the club long term, and its what he and his partner want.



Judd/ Messiah mentality mate, and its not in the best interest of the club.

We are going to languish down the bottom of the ladder for the 3-4 years, pushing back up into the 8 2020/ 2021. We are 2 drafts into a rebuild (and the players from draft 2 haven't even played a game in anger yet). We have another 2 drafts to go, and then a year or two to get games into the kids, and gel as a team.

And that's if we nail every single pick. We're coming from a long way back.



Mate, we will not be even close to ready for the next 3-4 years, Gibbs or no Gibbs.

Embrace that. Get with it. It'll make the next 3-4 years much more enjoyable if you do.

Whoah whoah whoah...i'm no heads in the clouds 'Carlton are the greatest and can do no wrong' fanboy.
I think you're being overly pessimistic.

I know we are coming from a long way back and am not expecting much in terms of wins this year...but to say 'we will not be even close to ready for the nexst 3-4 years' even if we got Fyfe, is overly negative.

4 years is a long time in footy and realistically we should be ready to contend in that time...to think we will miss the 8 for the next 4 years is crazy.

And it's not the Judd/Messiah complex...in this hypothetical Fyfe would come free, and it's not all on him to do everything like Judd...we'd have a good team around him with the likes of Docherty, Cripps, Weitering and our other talented kids.

 

[Soapy V]

Yeah and they're going terribly. No evidence to suggest that bringing a superstar into a bottom side does that side any good. You're just kidding yourself and denying your side the good draft picks that your side really needs. Fyfe might make us finish mid table when we're really mid bottom 10 and that will hurt us 3-5 years down the track.

We're out to win a flag, not to finish mid table.

It can also have the effect like Dangerfield has at Geelong or Ablett at GCS. They are so good and have such a reputation everyone sits back and waits for them to take charge. Ultimate one man team. Not a great thing for a young group.

Every year there is a geniune star available. Get them when we are ready to really step up is my opinion.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

According to the Suns board he's OOC in 2018.

Not sure the GCS will allow themselves to even get in that position. I would expect them to lock him down sooner rather than later. The only reason he becomes available is if he wants to leave the Suns. that being said, if he becomes available we should throw everything at him, the kitchen sink, and whole house included. Would take Tom Lynch over Fyfe any day of the week.

 

[PumpyChowdown]

2019 Team:

FB: Byrne -- Marchbank -- Plowman
HB: Docherty -- Macreadie -- Weitering

C: Petrovski-Seton -- Cripps -- Shiel
R: Kreuzer -- CCurnow -- Fyfe

HF: Pickett -- Lynch -- JSilvagni
FF: BSilvagni -- McKay -- Murphy

Int: Gibbs -- Fisher -- Cuningham -- LeBois
Emg: Polson -- Williamson -- Worpel

 

[Malifice]

How do we pay the minimum salary cap required if we have 30 kids in the squad and we don't want to revisit the days of overpaying players?

Front loaded contract extensions for the kids. See: Cripps and Weitering last year.

"Hello first/ second year player on 75-90k. Please extend your contract for 3 years. We'll pay you 1 million, with 600k coming in year one."

Then you stagger the front loaded years for each player, and it leaves you plenty of space later on.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Draft picks are needed to build the core of the list especially over the first few years of a rebuild. We just don't need 1 or 2 players, we need 30. Trades are fine as long as they don't cost too much and fit the criteria of good skills and under 22. At this stage you don't want to be trading 2 x first rounders or a 1st & 2nd round pick for a player no matter how good.

Free agency is good but don't bring in just anyone for the sake of it. Need to still be young enough, good skills and of good character.

When in 2-3 years we believe we have a core of 30 plus that can take us forward then chase 1 or 2 "big fishes". At that point we should have enough Salary Cap room to get anyone we want

Agree. Id consider Duryea from the Hawks and Sam Ried from the Swans. Both shown the quality, both come from very good systems.

 

[Malifice]

I think you're being overly pessimistic.

And I dont think you understand the size of the hole we found ourselves in 2 years ago.

Effectively we started rebuilding a list from scratch starting in 2015 (plus Cripps and Docherty) due to screwing up every single draft and trade from 2008-2014.

Sadly we dont have the concessions that GWS and GCS have. That said, we have defacto used those concessions to add in extra depth and prize some of those low picks off the Giants for a discount.

I know we are coming from a long way back and am not expecting much in terms of wins this year...but to say 'we will not be even close to ready for the nexst 3-4 years' even if we got Fyfe, is overly negative.

No, its really not. Over the last two years, we have delisted 28 players. Thats over half the list. We have largely replaced them with 18 -20 year olds. No team of kids wins flags. They are going to need 50-100 games (3-5 years) before they come good and are functioning as a team.

4 years is a long time in footy and realistically we should be ready to contend in that time...to think we will miss the 8 for the next 4 years is crazy.

We will absolutely miss the 8 in 2017, 18 and 19 and will be pushing for the 8 in 2020 (maybe finishing in the 8 if everything clicks over the next 3 years).

The top 4 window opens from 2021 onwards when we should be aiming to push into the top 4. It is 2021 that the list assembled in (2015-2019) should start to peak.

Doing it any other way is a shortcut. It undermines the foundations we are building at present, and weakens our strongest team in the vital 2021 and onwards timeframe.

And it's not the Judd/Messiah complex...in this hypothetical Fyfe would come free

Whats the point? We wont have a finals capable side around him till 2020-21 and by then Simpson, Murphy, Kruezer, Gibbs, Curnow, Thomas, Rowe and Casboult will all be gone or have one foot out the door. Fyfe will be 30 odd when the window opens.

His best years will be spent pushing us a few spots up the ladder during the important years of 2017-2019 when we need to be finishing low on the ladder, stockpiling draft picks and getting in talented kids.

Even worse, getting him would be selling false hope to many. Fools would want to add in even more players (trading away those draft picks for established older guns) for a tilt at a flag while Murphy etc are all still playing. This results in us undermining our own foundations going forwards. Then it all comes crashing down and we find ourselves in 2021 onwards with no depth, no young talent coming through and back to square one. We've been down that path before.

and it's not all on him to do everything like Judd...we'd have a good team around him with the likes of Docherty, Cripps, Weitering and our other talented kids.

Judd was running around with 3 number 1 draft picks, and Walker (a number 2) plus the best FF in the competition in Fevola. We also had Waite, Betts and others in his time. Our top end talent was elite - our bottom six were rubbish though, and we had no other kids coming through (and stank up every single draft and trade after he got here from 2008-14 barring Cripps and Doch who both only came on the scene after Judd left).

This time we do it properly. We build a list with talent all over the ground that will mostly be aged 20-27 when our window opens in 2021, in order to build sustained success post that year.

We're a third of the way there by the way (the back line is all but locked in for the next decade). We now need a half dozen A grade or Elite mids to grow alongside Cripps (all of whom will be playing and at the peak of their powers in the 2021-2025 window) an A grade ruckman for the same period, and at least 1 x 60 goal+ KPF (also must be kicking 60+ goals per year for the same period).

This is a Journey remember. I know you want to get there sooner, but hurrying it up and speeding means we are more likely to crash and never reach the destination at all.

Patience my padawan. Green shoots and all that.

 

[SafeAsMilk]

Draft picks are needed to build the core of the list especially over the first few years of a rebuild. We just don't need 1 or 2 players, we need 30. Trades are fine as long as they don't cost too much and fit the criteria of good skills and under 22. At this stage you don't want to be trading 2 x first rounders or a 1st & 2nd round pick for a player no matter how good.

Free agency is good but don't bring in just anyone for the sake of it. Need to still be young enough, good skills and of good character.

When in 2-3 years we believe we have a core of 30 plus that can take us forward then chase 1 or 2 "big fishes". At that point we should have enough Salary Cap room to get anyone we want

You need quality senior players during a rebuild. Whether they are there for a premiership or not is irrelevant, and if Gibbs goes, and Simpson retires, all we have is Murphy, Rowe, Kreuzer, Ed and Casboult. Getting Fyfe isn't good for Fyfe if he wants success, but it is better to have him getting games over someone like Ed Curnow.

Salary cap is not an issue. A balanced list is, not only to show the kids the ropes but to keep us a little competitive so younger players don't leave. We have enough cap space to take a Free Agent each year for the next three years, as well as build through the draft with 3 quality kids from each draft. I don't think you can realistically expect more than 3 from each draft, and when other teams are picking up the same you're just going to tread water, especially if we have no trade bait to bring in high end picks.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Repeat after me: We wont be challenging till 2021 onwards.

Trying to fast track this time-frame (and our rebuild) is the worst thing we can do in our current situation; we'll just fall flat on our face again once that window opens and crash and burn again, and need to start all over. Again.

We need to get the foundations right this time.

We want to get in players who will be contributing 2021-2025 (and onwards). 24 year olds and under.

Why would bringing fyfe in be fast tracking ?
Understand that concept regarding trying to fast track a top 8 team bringing in a fyfe to a premiership think geelong last year . But to a bottom 4 side thats rubbish fyfe would be an enormous acquisition in so many ways its immeasurable . If he didnt get us to a premiership thats fine he would set us up for one soon after . The landscape has changed that much with us , the salary cap FA coming in that your argument is very outdated .

 

[TeeJay Blue]

You need quality senior players during a rebuild. Whether they are there for a premiership or not is irrelevant, and if Gibbs goes, and Simpson retires, all we have is Murphy, Rowe, Kreuzer, Ed and Casboult. Getting Fyfe isn't good for Fyfe if he wants success, but it is better to have him getting games over someone like Ed Curnow.

Salary cap is not an issue. A balanced list is, not only to show the kids the ropes but to keep us a little competitive so younger players don't leave. We have enough cap space to take a Free Agent each year for the next three years, as well as build through the draft with 3 quality kids from each draft. I don't think you can realistically expect more than 3 from each draft, and when other teams are picking up the same you're just going to tread water, especially if we have no trade bait to bring in high end picks.

Calling the quality senior players is a bit of a stretch. Rowe is serviceable at best while Casboult is only ever a frustrating reminder of our forward line deficiencies. Besides I'd consider Wright, A.Silvagni (the reason why he was brought in) and Docherty senior players helping to set an example for the younger group.
Yes it would be better if we had players like Fyfe over Ed, but there are players in our team much worse than Ed. So even if Fyfe was to be in our team, Ed would still remain (probably in another position).

Salary cap can be an issue, especially when we are still dealing with players with inflated contracts and little to offer for them (Thomas, Jones, Jaksch, etc.). It is about proper management, and finding the best possible deal rather than yelling out 'we'll take it' when anything is thrown our way. Giving the wrong guys the biggest pay package is only going to see our better players possibly considering out for a better deal (especially when they might think they are doing enough to deserve a pay rise). This sort of thing can happen.

 

[Malifice]

You need quality senior players during a rebuild. Whether they are there for a premiership or not is irrelevant, and if Gibbs goes, and Simpson retires, all we have is Murphy, Rowe, Kreuzer, Ed and Casboult. Getting Fyfe isn't good for Fyfe if he wants success, but it is better to have him getting games over someone like Ed Curnow.

In this case, I would rather get Shiel. He's 24 currently, will be 27 in 2020 when we're pushing for the top 8, and will be 28 and in the peak of his powers when our window opens in 2021.

We front load a 5 year contract for 4 million, throwing 2 million at him in his first year. We then have a ton of cap space in 2019 onwards to re-sign Cripps, Doch, Weits and the other kids who all come out of contract around then.

At the end of 2018 (when Shiels front loaded contract ends) or in 2019 we fish around for another F/A as our window opens.

We trade our future 1st (1-5) for him and GWS future 2nd (35-40). W trade out Gibbs for a 1st and a swap of later picks (our third for Adelaide's 2nd) to get us back into the 2nd round this year, and we let MK leave as a F/A if the deal is likely to net us an end of 1st or 2nd round pick (which in any event will be in the 19-21 range).

We hit the draft with our 1st rounder (1-3), Adelaide's 1st rounder (12-15) and 2nd rounder (32-36), and a Compo pick for Kruezer (around pick 20). We draft 2 gun Mids, a KPF and a ruck.

In 2018 we hit the draft with no 1sts, but 2 x 2nds. We will also be eligible for a Priority pick (end of 1st round most likely) for three picks in the 20's. We will also have a ton of cap space as Shiels front loaded contract ends to attract a F/A and Ben Silvagni will be available as a F/S.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Dylan Shiel Vs Ed Curnow last year. Look how similar they are, note Ed lays far more tackles, has a better disposal efficiency and spends far longer on the field. I just don't see Shiel as a gun, he's surrounded by guns and has plenty of guns to rotate with so he doesn't get as tired. Think he's a good midfielder made to look exceptional in an exceptional team.

 

[Jabba73]

Dylan Shiel Vs Ed Curnow last year. Look how similar they are, note Ed lays far more tackles, has a better disposal efficiency and spends far longer on the field. I just don't see Shiel as a gun, he's surrounded by guns and has plenty of guns to rotate with so he doesn't get as tired. Think he's a good midfielder made to look exceptional in an exceptional team.

View attachment 347259

Would love to know how they would go if they swapped teams.

 

[Malifice]

Why would bringing fyfe in be fast tracking ?

Have you not been listenting to Bolton the last two years?

We are on a journey. Green shoots. Yada Yada.

We are not going to be challenging for a flag at any time over the next 3-4 years (Fyfes playing career). Not only would it be impossible to assemble a flag capable list in that time (considering where we are coming from) doing so would involve trades, and artificially inflating our ladder position on the back of a gun player who wont be there when the window does open.

Look at GWS. You think we are any chance of assembling a team capable of knocking them off any time soon?

We are better served using those 3-4 years sitting back, assembling a list capable of sustained success post GWS (2021-2025 and onwards). Stockpiling draft picks, building talented depth all over the park, picking off free agents and want-away players from the expansion teams and interstate clubs squeezed out, and selectively targeting free agents who will be at the peak of their powers during the 2021-2025 window.

Getting games into the kids. Getting them to that magical 50-100-150 game mark, playing together as a team, used to the game plan and structures and each other, all as the 2021 window opens.

Repeat after me: We wont be challenging till 2021 onwards, and wont make the eight till 2020. We need a team with talent all across the park, and young enough that they are in the peak of their powers from 2021-2025 to ensure the best possible chance of a flag.

Everything from now till then is the Journey. Be happy with 'green shoots'. If you expect anything else, you are going to be bitterly disappointed.