Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXV - 'Loopy' Season has begun

[CarmenSandiego]

The Trac situation is getting ugly.

He hates the place by the sounds of it. Not engaging with his teammates, they're all off him, he's off them etc.

If his hate is strong enough, somebody (maybe us) could get him cheap(ish). They almost killed him, like, they were a bees dick away from ending his life - from pure negligence too. Do Melbourne want that can of worms opened? I assume he has every opportunity to sue or bring some sort of legal action against them if he felt the need to.

They might rather cover their ass and take slight unders if it came to that.

 

[Stamos]

However you want to frame it, the fact remains that they get it done as do most of the successful teams. They identify weaknesses and act, pay up and win flags.

If we’re parting with H plus a few of our B/C graders, that leaves plenty of room for Trac’s salary.

We’ve had 10 years to find adequate support for Cripps and we’ve failed. We now may have the opportunity to land a superstar who will be even more damaging than Cripps, who will give us one of the most powerful midfields of all-time and who fills the gaping hole of a powerful, line-breaking, goal-kicking mid and some are turning their back on it like we’ve got everything under control. It’s laughable.

I’m confident that if Trac is serious and all else is ticked off, it gets done… and I seriously hope it does.

Thus, I’m tapping out of the discussion as it’s undoubtedly going to go round in circles for the next 6 weeks.

You seem to be taking an opposite lesson to what the Geelong model is.

They've traded in 2 superstars in the last 20 years, both of whom took unders to go there (and were free agents at the time). Their ability to trade for Cameron (who again, was taking unders to go there) came from extraordinary circumstances.

They identify weaknesses, and address them through cheap player trades/FAs, or finding mature age freaks playing at Barwon Heads.

 

[HaydossJ]

I genuinely don’t think there has ever been a single scenario that has separated so clearly those on this board who can think intentionally, objectively, sensibly and broadly from those who are stuck, scarred, conservative and emotional … it’s fascinating stuff.

I agree.

The objective and rational move is to not trade Harry.

The emotional move is to say 'Hey there is a big shiny toy available and I want it no matter the cost'.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Lets say we lose McKay, who on the market and our list can make the difference of 40+ goals a year?

Petrecca has to have an exceptional year to make up the scoring power in terms of goals and goal assists.

You're thinking too black and white...

We scored 99 points against the Eagles without Harry AND Charlie...

lol West Coast I hear you say! Ok... we scored 74 points against the Saints last week, again without Harry and Charlie...

Last year, we faced the Saints in round 23 without Harry but we had Charlie -> 73 points

Last year when we faced the Saints in round 6 with BOTH Harry + Charlie, we scored 60 points (kicking only 8 goals)

Last year against the Pies we kicked 93 points with Charlie but NO Harry...

Last year when we played the Pies with BOTH Harry + Charlie, 57 points (kicking just 7 goals)

There's many more examples, go fish through them yourself and do your own research to understand how it works...

Basically, first and foremost for us to generate scores, our midfield needs to get on top of the oppositions... We could have Dunstall and Ablett Sr in their prime in that f50... won't mean much if the midfield gets beat. Right now, we have Cripps in Brownlow winning form... how long do you think that's going to last? Do you think George Hewett is going to suddenly elevate at age 29? Kennedy can't hit an i50 target... Walsh struggles with that too... that leaves Cerra who can kick... but can't get on the park...

We are one Cripps injury away from a midfield capitulation. And if Cripps doesn't get injured, age will catch up to him very soon...

For what it's worth, I think there's a less than 1% chance we trade Harry for Trac anyway... the more I think about it, the more it would make sense for Melbourne to want draft picks instead. Harry isn't going to help them win another flag with Trac out and Oliver washed up. If Trac goes smartest thing for them to do is refresh their list.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Dan McStay has never kicked more than 28 goals in a year, hardly a true KPF

So he’s an average KPF? We have 2 fantastic, brilliant KPF at the same time, how good is that?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[PrendersBigEngine]

Lets say we lose McKay, who on the market and our list can make the difference of 40+ goals a year?

Petrecca has to have an exceptional year to make up the scoring power in terms of goals and goal assists.

20+ from Petracca and 20+ from the bloke who replaces him at CHF would not be wild. Moot point though it seems. H not going.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

The Trac situation is getting ugly.

He hates the place by the sounds of it. Not engaging with his teammates, they're all off him, he's off them etc.

If his hate is strong enough, somebody (maybe us) could get him cheap(ish). They almost killed him, like, they were a bees dick away from ending his life - from pure negligence too. Do Melbourne want that can of worms opened? I assume he has every opportunity to sue or bring some sort of legal action against them if he felt the need to.

They might rather cover their ass and take slight unders if it came to that.

Yeah but we want his baggage to go along with his talent? How do we know what’s gone on at Melbourne hasn’t been driven by him.

• does he cost too much?
• can he come back to his best?
• would losing a key player damage the group?
• would his baggage impact the culture we’re desperately trying to build?

I’m not loving the idea.

Prefer to develop these young guns we have - Lord, Binns and Moir.

 

[Accidental genius]

I think part of the issue with our midfield group is we don’t have a Libba type to fight for the ball like a terrier which would then free up Cripps to receive and run away bashing/crashing and busting tackles as he clears out of the centre square or stoppages and passes to next good option. He’s a very good user of the ball and hardly ever bombs it long.

I’m hoping our lord is our libba and he is currently showing lots of promise. Get a good preseason into him and mix it up a bit in the middle.

 

[NavySteel]

No to Trac... Who knows what to believe in the media amongst all the spin and speculation... But silence sometimes speaks.

Would not want the potential for a core member on Harry (who committed long term) being sold off for hope. It smells of a messiah trade and smells of old Carlton.

We've got flag potential, but need to get a healthy list, get the best playing together consistently, and continue nurturing a good culture. Bringing in baggage could disrupt the culture we're trying to build.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I agree.

The objective and rational move is to not trade Harry.

The emotional move is to say 'Hey there is a big shiny toy available and I want it no matter the cost'.

The emotional move is to say 'keep Harry! We love him and he loves us'

The objective and rational move is to recruit one of the game's very best players

Again, this is all moot anyway... Harry isn't going to be traded.

 

[Accidental genius]

Lots of different angles on the Trac rumours and trade possibilities …

on over $1M and carrying on like a selfish pork chop …you’re a leader of the club. They’ve invested heavily in you and you want to jump ship to play in front of large crowds. How about stay and try and help fix the club you’re at.

 

[JustOneTime]

If we bring in Houston, who is he going to replace? I can’t see a Carlton side going forward that doesn’t have Moo in it, and I honestly think that Moo next year is going to make us start asking why did we think of Houston.

The only possible option would be Boyd really… or Newman. And replacing Newman isn’t going to happen. He’s a general down back. So it’d come down to Boyd. But if we wanted to, we could use Cinc in the role Boyd plays. And then we have Doc coming back in.

We just need a reliable third tall and a solid KPD.

Newman will be 32 and is 'very' slow. Yes he is good at rebounding and that is his thought, rebound - not defence. Yes he is good in the context of making a stand unlike some of the others. I like all his traits except his speed which is woefully slow.

Importantly, when the defence get caught out on the wing in a counter attack scenario you see Newman lose his man in sprints by 10-15 metres. The games is only choosing even quicker players every year.

So I'd replace Newman or boyd with him and he would be part of the back 7 'easily'. O Hollands is a gem but based on this season when Ollie was fumbling getting caught dead in tackles for that patch of the year, i'd bring houston up to the wing.

Do i think Newman puts everything on the line most weeks for us , yes. I like him. But if we want a flag we need to stop goals and Newman doesnt really stop goals going in...doesnt stop enough goals like the rest of our defence...instead he racks up 22-26 possessions in rebound footy.

Our back 7 are mentally inept back there and calamity prone. Is houston the absolute answer back there with the required traits - probably not. But he is an all australian that is a huge upgrade on Boyd, Cowan and Newman. and his utility value to go through the midfield or wing.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Lots of different angles on the Trac rumours and trade possibilities …

on over $1M and carrying on like a selfish pork chop …you’re a leader of the club. They’ve invested heavily in you and you want to jump ship to play in front of large crowds. How about stay and try and help fix the club you’re at.

One of the worst takes on this I've read...

 

[passmark]

As opposed to Joel Smith (drugs suspension hanging over his head) Joel Smiths' father (willing to throw anyone under the bus to make his son seem less guilty) Clayton Oliver (drugs, attitude, etc) Glenn Bartlett (previous president with an axe to grind and throwing hand grenades) Simon Goodwin (previous association with * drug regime, victim of previous hand grenades) and Gary Pert (nothing to see here) and the Melbourne medical team (sending a critically injured player back onto the field)?

No, I don't think so.

No worries Christian.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

The strong mail is he's 100 percent gone.

Lloyd and others in the know claim to have spoken to players who don't want him there, and who can confirm he doesnt want to be there anymore under any circumstances. It's gotten toxic.

It's more of a 'where to' than an 'if' at this stage.

Id almost be willing to bet he's prepared to take a pay cut to get out of there if its this toxic for him.

 

[CarmenSandiego]

Yeah but we want his baggage to go along with his talent? How do we know what’s gone on at Melbourne hasn’t been driven by him.

What's the baggage? They almost killed him, like insanely close. The doctor inflated his collapsed lung with air and it got in the bloodstream & told him he's fine to keep playing. From all reports he's a good bloke & hard worker fed up with the amateur standards of Melbourne, along with.. ya know, almost dying at the hands of the club doctor. I'd leave too.

• does he cost too much?
• can he come back to his best?
• would losing a key player damage the group?
• would his baggage impact the culture we’re desperately trying to build?

- If it were a normal trade, would cost too much. But given how much shit Melbourne can get in if Petracca is keeping all this in his back pocket, I suspect (hope) they may want to wash their hands of it and offload him.

- Unsure about back to his best, it's certainly a risk.

- I'd hope we wouldn't have to give up a key player given the above circumstances, but if we did, I'd hope the group are mature enough to handle it. It's a professional sport, they can't get sadsy over someone being traded to improve our chances at a Premiership.

- Not sure what baggage you're referring to?

I’m not loving the idea.

Prefer to develop these young guns we have - Lord, Binns and Moir.

They're not powerful midfielders. Petracca solves a pretty big issue for us - midfield speed that can cause damage down forward + support for Cripps. He would actually prolong Cripps career imo, and vice versa.

If we can find a way to fit him in the cap, keep our stars and keep our pick for Cody Walker, then I think I'm convinced.

 

[The Flying Doormat]

Why do I feel like we are going to spend the next 7 weeks, and 30,000 posts discussing O'keefe, Mitchell, Pavlich, Shiel, Tomlinson, Coniglio, Petracca. Just for it to never happen

 

[passmark]

Id almost be willing to bet he's prepared to take a pay cut to get out of there if it’s this toxic for him.

Is his agent willing to take a pay cut though?

 

[Accidental genius]

One of the worst takes on this I've read...

Garbage!

 

[Blue_Fusion]

This is a really good summary of the pros and cons

 

[Monty1978]

I very much doubt anyone is giving us a 2nd rounder for a 30yo who is perennially injured. He's going to get us a 3rd rounder at best.

Also big doubts on Carroll being worth a 2nd rounder too... the guy has played what 15 games this year? Had hardly any impact in a lot of those games, often gets subbed out. He has youth on his side, another 3rd rounder potentially.

Owies could be worth a 2nd rounder.

Pittonet isn't going to be traded.

Don't get me wrong, I would love for this to play out... bit too unrealistic for mine...

We are not going to land Petracca by getting rid of a bunch of fringe players to supplement our 24 and 25 1sts.

If Melbourne were smart, if and when Trac requests a trade to us, then they'd have to realise that its time for them to refresh their list because their flag window will be slammed shut. So picks should be very lucrative to them especially with Tassie around the corner...

I'm thinking it'll cost us something like 24 + 25 1sts + Cerra for Trac + a 2nd rounder (#38)

If we can get a 2nd rounder for Owies that leaves us with three 2nd rounders this year. Just guessing we trade him to the Tigers for #29.

Aleer + a 3rd for 2 of those 2nd rounders, maybe #29 + #38.

So we have 1 x 2nd, 1x 3rd plus whatever we get for Martin and Carroll to spend on Campo bros.


OUT:
#11 + F1 + #29 + #38 + Cerra + Owies + Martin + Carroll

IN:
Petracca + Aleer + B.Campo + L.Campo

Like the way you think … it’s realistic … if I was Melbourne and said ok we will deal … I would ask for something like cerra + E. Hollands and picks

Because someone needs to make the difference of kicking a winning score. If we want to go back to finer details lets say 45+ goals a year in which Harry has done for the past 4 years (except 2023). Trac has average 23+ in the past 4 years. We need to make 22 goals quota. Which reliable fwd do we have on the list can achieve that difference?

Even if you take mckay 22 goals off our points for we are still the 6th highest scoring team this year … we don’t need to make up anything

 

[mochacinolatte]

You're thinking too black and white...

We scored 99 points against the Eagles without Harry AND Charlie...

lol West Coast I hear you say! Ok... we scored 74 points against the Saints last week, again without Harry and Charlie...

Last year, we faced the Saints in round 23 without Harry but we had Charlie -> 73 points

Last year when we faced the Saints in round 6 with BOTH Harry + Charlie, we scored 60 points (kicking only 8 goals)

Last year against the Pies we kicked 93 points with Charlie but NO Harry...

Last year when we played the Pies with BOTH Harry + Charlie, 57 points (kicking just 7 goals)

There's many more examples, go fish through them yourself and do your own research to understand how it works...

Basically, first and foremost for us to generate scores, our midfield needs to get on top of the oppositions... We could have Dunstall and Ablett Sr in their prime in that f50... won't mean much if the midfield gets beat. Right now, we have Cripps in Brownlow winning form... how long do you think that's going to last? Do you think George Hewett is going to suddenly elevate at age 29? Kennedy can't hit an i50 target... Walsh struggles with that too... that leaves Cerra who can kick... but can't get on the park...

We are one Cripps injury away from a midfield capitulation. And if Cripps doesn't get injured, age will catch up to him very soon...

For what it's worth, I think there's a less than 1% chance we trade Harry for Trac anyway... the more I think about it, the more it would make sense for Melbourne to want draft picks instead. Harry isn't going to help them win another flag with Trac out and Oliver washed up. If Trac goes smartest thing for them to do is refresh their list.

I don't understand how my view is black and white when you are doing the same concept.

You think Petrecca will fix our midfield issue when the issue was the team was being injured? So are we just going to ignore how dominant we were in the midfield last year and the first of this year?

What if Petrecca gets injured? We saw how things turn out when we got mcgovern/williams and martin on high contract.

Not sure why you bringing Hewett age in. Trac is 29 and probably has 2-3 years. Can he be the midfield bull and go in under if Cripps gets injured? When Oliver and Viney were the ones letting him being more a free flowing mid.

What happens if Curnow gets injured? Are we going to have a shitshow of fwd line like the past 2 weeks when running 2 KPF actually produces results in the Grand Final (Go look it at it)

Aren't we just Cherry picking stats where we just conviently did better without Harry and Charlie when they played almost every game for the past 3 years.

Does Petrecca provide contesting marking down the line or when we distribute from kick-ins?

There is pros and cons to both players.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Newman will be 32 and is 'very' slow. Yes he is good at rebounding and that is his thought, rebound - not defence. Yes he is good in the context of making a stand unlike some of the others. I like all his traits except his speed which is woefully slow.

Importantly, when the defence get caught out on the wing in a counter attack scenario you see Newman lose his man in sprints by 10-15 metres. The games is only choosing even quicker players every year.

So I'd replace Newman or boyd with him and he would be part of the back 7 'easily'. O Hollands is a gem but based on this season when Ollie was fumbling getting caught dead in tackles for that patch of the year, i'd bring houston up to the wing.

Do i think Newman puts everything on the line most weeks for us , yes. I like him. But if we want a flag we need to stop goals and Newman doesnt really stop goals going in...doesnt stop enough goals like the rest of our defence...instead he racks up 22-26 possessions in rebound footy.

Our back 7 are mentally inept back there and calamity prone. Is houston the absolute answer back there with the required traits - probably not. But he is an all australian that is a huge upgrade on Boyd, Cowan and Newman. and his utility value to go through the midfield or wing.

But Newman's role is to be the attacking rebounder. Mentioned at the AA selection earlier this season and runner up in the B & F last year.

He's not the issue and you definitely wouldn't be wasting serious draft capital to replace him when we have other more urgent needs to my way of thinking.

 

[CarmenSandiego]

Lots of different angles on the Trac rumours and trade possibilities …

on over $1M and carrying on like a selfish pork chop …you’re a leader of the club. They’ve invested heavily in you and you want to jump ship to play in front of large crowds. How about stay and try and help fix the club you’re at.

They almost killed him. The 'large crowds' comment is safer to say than the truth, because the truth will ruin the club.

Not a simple minor injury mishap & setback, he literally almost lost his life because of the club. He's supposed to stay there and fix the club that almost killed him? I shit you not, Melbourne were dangerously close to having a manslaughter charge against them & probably folded.

 

[Stamos]

They're not powerful midfielders. Petracca solves a pretty big issue for us - midfield speed that can cause damage down forward + support for Cripps. He would actually prolong Cripps career imo, and vice versa.

I'd argue that our midfield issue is a lack of defensive speed rather than attacking speed.
As good as Petracca is, I'm not sure he addresses that?