Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVII

[Stamos]

would everyone be more comfortable with pick 25 (for Kennedy) when it comes to risk of campo bid?

Much less likely that a bid comes that high, and Kennedy is much less a required player than Kemp is.
So yes.

 

[MITSUHIRATO]

More detail...

Here are the relevant picks:
Brisbane: 27, 34, 42, 43, 49, 60, 66
Essendon: 28, 31, 40, 46, 54, 65
Gold Coast: 6, 23, 39, 41, 78

Brisbane will almost certainly do a draft-night trade of 27 for lower picks.
Essendon may well keep spend 28 and 31 on Kako, but could look to do similar to Brisbane.
Gold Coast will trade out 6 and 23 for Rioli, and prob look for some late picks back.

So matching bids for Ashcroft, Kako, Marshall and Lombard will push our 32 back to 36. Essendon using 28 and 31 will bring it back to 34. And that's about it. If we're lucky it might stay at 32, but could be as bad as 36.

In any case, that 32-36 range is right in the middle of expectations for a bid on Ben Camporeale, so it makes absolutely no sense for us to trade for a pick in that range, UNLESS, we were then looking to combine it with the Kennedy pick to move up the order.

Brilliant response. Thank you.

 

[ABigOlDoofus]

would everyone be more comfortable with pick 25 (for Kennedy) when it comes to risk of campo bid?

Doubt a bid comes before 25, would take that and run for Chugga.

 

[juzza316]

Genuinely not sure if Kingy is a troll account based on this last page or 2

 

[Magruder]

I only understand Kemp leaving if it's for overs.

32 is not overs.

Anyone from St Kilda player wise we might be interested in?

deal me Owens and we'll talk...

 

[kingkingston]

Yes it does, you start with your next pick after a bid is put in place, not at the end when you want

You just need the points to match the bid. Nothing to do with the next pick. Every pick has a point value. Most likely you will lose the next pick, but if you have enough from lower picks to cover it you will be fine.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Such a weird choice for Kennedy to go to the Dogs.
I think it's good for him to move on, but surely to a club that needs him more than as the 6th mid?

I guess he's the 4th extractor with us, but will be the 3rd with them and 2nd when Bont is forward.

I do worry about him though.

 

[Bletch]

Stop over-rating our players like so many do here. Especially fringe players

Some think fringe players should get us top 20 picks...........

We don't have to trade him though! Just because another club asks the question, doesn't mean we have to come up with something 'fair'.

The Saints are pushing this. If they really want it to happen, they pay overs.

We don't need the cap space. We don't need the list space. We like him. He's young, can play forward or back, and should still develop further in the next few years. Would be silly to trade him out now for what might seem 'fair' based on his results to date.

 

[kingkingston]

deal me Owens and we'll talk...

Owens is better than Kemp...........you would do that deal in a heartbeat

 

[Soapy V]

Stop over-rating our players like so many do here. Especially fringe players

Some think fringe players should get us top 20 picks...........

NO ONE is overrating him. We just don’t believe in giving away young players for nothing or no benefit

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Stop over-rating our players like so many do here. Especially fringe players

Some think fringe players should get us top 20 picks...........

Your argument makes zero sense whatsoever, trade Kemp for 32 which is right in the range for BCampo so effectively taking a huge risk you’re trading Kemp for him leaving a shitload of points we’ve accrued to pay for them already.

Have a real good think about what you’re trying to say here


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[Magruder]

True, but the most likely person to make a bid (based on previous form) would be SOS with 32.

fine - do it at 32.

(If we're getting #25 for MK)

 

[ABigOlDoofus]

Stop over-rating our players like so many do here. Especially fringe players

Some think fringe players should get us top 20 picks...........

Far out, we aren't arguing pick 32 isn't enough for Kemp (although some will agree with that anyway), we're saying a pick like that is absolutely useless in THIS. YEAR'S. DRAFT. Since it has the potential to be swallowed up by a bid.

Let me make this clearer for you. Do you think it would be fair to let a contracted player walk for absolutely free? Get nothing in return? Because that it a real possibility if Kemp were to be traded for 32.

 

[kingkingston]

We’ll get them anyway.

If the only benefit to trading out kemp is his very reasonable contract, why not just make it easy for him then and trade him for a 5th round pick? That’s potentially the same scenario as what you’re proposing

My argument is that he isn't worth a top 20 pick like some are saying

 

[Stamos]

My argument is that he isn't worth a top 20 pick like some are saying

That's not what you were saying though

 

[crocodilian]

You just need the points to match the bid. Nothing to do with the next pick. Every pick has a point value. Most likely you will lose the next pick, but if you have enough from lower picks to cover it you will be fine.

You have absolutely no idea how the father/son picks work. I am getting a headache reading how everyone is trying to explain it to you

 

[kingkingston]

Far out, we aren't arguing pick 32 isn't enough for Kemp (although some will agree with that anyway), we're saying a pick like that is absolutely useless in THIS. YEAR'S. DRAFT. Since it has the potential to be swallowed up by a bid.

Let me make this clearer for you. Do you think it would be fair to let a contracted player walk for absolutely free? Get nothing in return? Because that it a real possibility if Kemp were to be traded for 32.

pick 32 is fair for Kemp who hasn't proven much yet......well let me say proven consistent football. He shows flashes but drops easy marks and his kicking is iffy. I'm happy to keep him but if we get pick 32 or higher in this draft we should take it.

 

[Soapy V]

You just need the points to match the bid. Nothing to do with the next pick. Every pick has a point value. Most likely you will lose the next pick, but if you have enough from lower picks to cover it you will be fine.

You have to use the NEXT pick

 

[teagueyubeauty]

You just need the points to match the bid. Nothing to do with the next pick. Every pick has a point value. Most likely you will lose the next pick, but if you have enough from lower picks to cover it you will be fine.

I suggest you go and read up on the bid matching rules, clearly have very little idea


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[ABigOlDoofus]

You just need the points to match the bid. Nothing to do with the next pick. Every pick has a point value. Most likely you will lose the next pick, but if you have enough from lower picks to cover it you will be fine.

This is simply incorrect.

Below is taken directly from the AFL's bidding system guidebook. Notice how it says "Points are subtracted from Sydney's NEXT AVAILABLE PICK"???? That's how the system works.

 

[St Steady]

I only understand Kemp leaving if it's for overs.

32 is not overs.

Anyone from St Kilda player wise we might be interested in?

paddy dow?

 

[Blue__Balls]

You just need the points to match the bid. Nothing to do with the next pick. Every pick has a point value. Most likely you will lose the next pick, but if you have enough from lower picks to cover it you will be fine.

This is the poster child for "confidently incorrect".

 

[Tjblues]

You just need the points to match the bid. Nothing to do with the next pick. Every pick has a point value. Most likely you will lose the next pick, but if you have enough from lower picks to cover it you will be fine.

I don’t believe this is correct.

Pretty sure it’s stated in the rules that matching bids must be done with your next available pick and progresses down the order from there

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Don't trade Kemp for anything less than a first rounder.

We paid a first for him. We have got games into him. He has shown his athleticism and potential. He is contracted.

If JSOS goes back, then Kemp is a 3rd forward, especially with Martin gone.

It has to be an offer too good to refuse.

 

[skadoosh]