Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[hawkman]

Im optimistic about next year.

Mitchell was the best in the comp at getting his team first use in 2018. Having him back is absolutely massive, our clearance numbers will spike. I also think our list is better than it was in 2018.

However like always, loads of luck is needed too.

The worry is how does Mitchell come back. He may only be at 80% of what he was next season

 

[Scotland]

I wouldn't be too worried about Mitchell. He's a trundler by nature so as long as he can cover the territory he'll be fine. He's not an explosive athlete so the concern about coming back and having to change his game style isn't there like it was with Nathan Brown with his broken leg or David Schwarz and Glen Jakovich who did ACLs. Lenny Hayes was a mid who wasn't quick and he kept coming back after ACLs. May take some time to get going but in the few times he was injured at Sydney he seemed to come back and resume where he was when he went out.

 

[juss]

So when do oppo fans expect Hawks to fall off a cliff?

What constitutes falling off a cliff? Wooden spoon? Don't expect that any time soon. Bottom 4? Unlikely but things can go disaster sometimes.
Miss the finals? Certainly possible.
Make the finals but get bundled out week 1? Certainly possible too.
Win a final(s)? Less likely in my opinion but you can't completely rule it out.

It depends what the measure is here, and that's the purpose of this thread. I think many can see Hawthorn sitting middle of the pack and either just making or just missing finals. But is that a success? If we are talking finishing top 4, making at least the PF and then ultimately winning through to the GF and premierships, then perhaps it is necessary to bottom out to get those high picks which usually form core to premiership lists. And what seems to be getting lost here is those picks were absolutely core to Clarkson's flags at Hawthorn.

As a hypothetical would you prefer Hawthorn middle of the pack and contest finals for the next decade, but not make the GF and thus no flags, or bottom 4 for 3 years, get a bunch of elite kids and win another flag or two in 5-8 years?

 

[matey]

What constitutes falling off a cliff? Wooden spoon? Don't expect that any time soon. Bottom 4? Unlikely but things can go disaster sometimes.
Miss the finals? Certainly possible.
Make the finals but get bundled out week 1? Certainly possible too.
Win a final(s)? Less likely in my opinion but you can't completely rule it out.

It depends what the measure is here, and that's the purpose of this thread. I think many can see Hawthorn sitting middle of the pack and either just making or just missing finals. But is that a success? If we are talking finishing top 4, making at least the PF and then ultimately winning through to the GF and premierships, then perhaps it is necessary to bottom out to get those high picks which usually form core to premiership lists. And what seems to be getting lost here is those picks were absolutely core to Clarkson's flags at Hawthorn.

As a hypothetical would you prefer Hawthorn middle of the pack and contest finals for the next decade, but not make the GF and thus no flags, or bottom 4 for 3 years, get a bunch of elite kids and win another flag or two in 5-8 years?

Trying to gauge what is falling off a cliff is something for you and other oppo supporters to determine. I have given a timeframe of when I can see the Hawks contending again which is significantly different. Don’t ask me what a cliff is!!!! You clearly think the Hawks will not contend soon and not being hypocritical, YOU not ME should think that once Tigers pass through this current period of success they will also be looking at a cliff.

Since 2016 watching what Clarko and Wright have been doing, transitioning from a three peat, working the system I can today see a playing list with a good spread of older players, middle aged players and youngsters (with quality in all 3 groups and at every line) that will challenge again soon. Time will tell but watching it very very closely as a supporter I am optimistic.

 

[sr36]

Trying to gauge what is falling off a cliff is something for you and other oppo supporters to determine. I have given a timeframe of when I can see the Hawks contending again which is significantly different. Don’t ask me what a cliff is!!!! You clearly think the Hawks will not contend soon and not being hypocritical, YOU not ME should think that once Tigers pass through this current period of success they will also be looking at a cliff.

Since 2016 watching what Clarko and Wright have been doing, transitioning from a three peat, working the system I can today see a playing list with a good spread of older players, middle aged players and youngsters (with quality in all 3 groups and at every line) that will challenge again soon. Time will tell but watching it very very closely as a supporter I am optimistic.

By Hawthorn standards, you've already fallen off a cliff.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Trying to gauge what is falling off a cliff is something for you and other oppo supporters to determine. I have given a timeframe of when I can see the Hawks contending again which is significantly different. Don’t ask me what a cliff is!!!! You clearly think the Hawks will not contend soon and not being hypocritical, YOU not ME should think that once Tigers pass through this current period of success they will also be looking at a cliff.

Since 2016 watching what Clarko and Wright have been doing, transitioning from a three peat, working the system I can today see a playing list with a good spread of older players, middle aged players and youngsters (with quality in all 3 groups and at every line) that will challenge again soon. Time will tell but watching it very very closely as a supporter I am optimistic.

I think next season (2020) will be a real validation of where Hawthorn is at.
After the straight sets exit in 2018 and then the poor start to 2019 I had (gleefully) thought they were in a lot of bother but then, goddamit, they produce a great second half to the season with some younger players clearly showing they have talent.

I genuinely find them hard to predict next year

 

[juss]

Trying to gauge what is falling off a cliff is something for you and other oppo supporters to determine. I have given a timeframe of when I can see the Hawks contending again which is significantly different. Don’t ask me what a cliff is!!!! You clearly think the Hawks will not contend soon and not being hypocritical, YOU not ME should think that once Tigers pass through this current period of success they will also be looking at a cliff.

Since 2016 watching what Clarko and Wright have been doing, transitioning from a three peat, working the system I can today see a playing list with a good spread of older players, middle aged players and youngsters (with quality in all 3 groups and at every line) that will challenge again soon. Time will tell but watching it very very closely as a supporter I am optimistic.

Why did you need to bring the Tigers into this? Classic Bigfooty and not relevant to the topic. FWIW yes once we go through this era of players at somepoint I expect the Tigers to decline too before needing to develop and rebuild again.

Back on topic, Hawks won't finish last or anything like that any time soon. But for the foreseeable future of say 3 years I see them middling the pack and I don't think that constitutes success even if they do make the finals or win one or two over those years. In my opinion and we will have to wait and see how this plays out they won't win a flag in the next 3, too many other sides look better placed in that time.

Beyond 3 years is anyone's guess, but you can say that about pretty much all 18 clubs.

Be specific in your timeframe, do you see the Hawks winning a flag in the next 3 years?

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

...

Beyond 3 years is anyone's guess, but you can say that about pretty much all 18 clubs.

Be specific in your timeframe, do you see the Hawks winning a flag in the next 3 years?

Agree entirely with your first point, and as to the second - that has clearly been the target IMO.

I won't say I expect to win one in the next 2-3 years, but I have been spoiled so I'll be disappointed not to.

Based on all the available evidence, choosing to full rebuild in 2016 would have been an 8-10 year minimum rebuild with no guarantee of success (no side other than Hawthorn has gone from top-10 draft selection to premiership in <5 years other than the Bulldogs in last 15 years).

The path chosen puts Hawthorn in contention for the 2019-2022 period - if they don't win won by 2023 then with hindsight it could be considered a mis-step.

 

[4THAWN]

Back on topic, Hawks won't finish last or anything like that any time soon. But for the foreseeable future of say 3 years I see them middling the pack and I don't think that constitutes success even if they do make the finals or win one or two over those years. In my opinion and we will have to wait and see how this plays out they won't win a flag in the next 3, too many other sides look better placed in that time.

Beyond 3 years is anyone's guess, but you can say that about pretty much all 18 clubs.

Be specific in your timeframe, do you see the Hawks winning a flag in the next 3 years?

I dont "see" any clubs winning a flag in the next 3 years.

It wouldn't surprise me that much if we did though. I think it's great that we are rebuilding on the run, and in my opinion the club is doing a fantastic job (Especially over the last 2 years).

I believe we are well and truly capable of not only making, but winning finals in 2020 and beyond. In my opinion that constitutions minor on-field success, but we all know that major success takes the form of premiership cups. I've said 2021/22 look the years we are set up to contend again, but who knows.

Which clubs do you see in a better position than us to win flags over the next 3 years?

-Richmond, West Coast, Collingwood, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, GWS and Hawthorn(No order) would be my top 7 teams for the next 3 years.
-Richmond and West Coast are probably clear #1/#2 as of right now, with the rest all pretty even imo. Who knows how this could change, maybe after round 5 its Sydney and Gold Coast looking like contenders.

 

[juss]

I dont "see" any clubs winning a flag in the next 3 years.

It wouldn't surprise me that much if we did though. I think it's great that we are rebuilding on the run, and in my opinion the club is doing a fantastic job (Especially over the last 2 years).

I believe we are well and truly capable of not only making, but winning finals in 2020 and beyond. In my opinion that constitutions minor on-field success, but we all know that major success takes the form of premiership cups. I've said 2021/22 look the years we are set up to contend again, but who knows.

Which clubs do you see in a better position than us to win flags over the next 3 years?

-Richmond, West Coast, Collingwood, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, GWS and Hawthorn(No order) would be my top 7 teams for the next 3 years.
-Richmond and West Coast are probably clear #1/#2 as of right now, with the rest all pretty even imo. Who knows how this could change, maybe after round 5 its Sydney and Gold Coast looking like contenders.

These are only my opinions so they aren't right or wrong until we assess later with hindsight.

In 2020 I reckon there's a 90% chance the flag comes from one of Richmond, Eagles, Brisbane, Giants, Collingwood.

The other 10% chance clubs have different probabilities obviously but I put Hawthorn in that group, e.g. obviously a better chance than GC, but still a huge surprise if one of my first 5 don't win it.

2021: it gets harder to predict, but I can see clubs like the Lions and Giants being very powerful, not sure if the current mainstays are up, but then there are other sides I see improving more than Hawks, teams like Doggies for example.

2022: this is sketchy, I couldn't say with confidence other than there might be some bolters from teams with imo better younger talent than Hawthorn. There is a lot of trading and recruiting to be done before here, but from what I can see now I can't give Hawthorn a greater chance than a number of others.

I keep coming back to this I don't see Hawthorn bombing, I just don't see how they leap frog some of the above mentioned teams in the next 3 years to win a flag.

Beyond that I couldn't even get close to guessing.

Hawks fans have a different view that's fine, only hindsight will tell but I just don't see it in the next 3.

 

[Jobe Watson]

I think the Hawks will struggle massively and will be lucky to finish outside the bottom 4.

 

[Scotland]

It depends what the measure is here, and that's the purpose of this thread. I think many can see Hawthorn sitting middle of the pack and either just making or just missing finals. But is that a success? If we are talking finishing top 4, making at least the PF and then ultimately winning through to the GF and premierships, then perhaps it is necessary to bottom out to get those high picks which usually form core to premiership lists. And what seems to be getting lost here is those picks were absolutely core to Clarkson's flags at Hawthorn.

As a hypothetical would you prefer Hawthorn middle of the pack and contest finals for the next decade, but not make the GF and thus no flags, or bottom 4 for 3 years, get a bunch of elite kids and win another flag or two in 5-8 years?

Isn't the purpose of the thread essentially succeeding (or not) without going down the rebuild via the draft route?

Clarkson's first ever team: average age nearly 24, total games played 1723
By the end of his first season: 23.5, 1680

For any established club you can clearly call that playing the kids. 11 players debuted in 2005, 8 of them teenagers. Obviously helped by having Hodge and Mitchell from 2001 already there and having good picks from a low finish in 2004. They burned plenty of picks after Clarkson got there, but the draft is always a lottery and if you use 10-15 or so and get multiple 300 gamers out of it that's a great result.

Fast forward to 2017 Rd 1: average age 27, total games played 2964
2018 Rd 1: average age just under 27, total games played 2768
2019 Rd 1: average age just under 26.8, total games played 2631

Factoring in who went out after 2015/16 there has been a clear strategy in place to keep the list profile around a certain point. That in itself raises minimum expectations. My own team will be starting the new season around the 27 / just under 3,000 games mark and there is certainly no 'just give us a few years to see how it goes' in play.

Whether the strategy is successful really depends on the quality of players brought in (remember you can only use the picks you have, no point crying over a spilled Sam Walsh flavoured milk if you have pick 15) and salary cap management. If you target short term success you narrow your window, and if it doesn't work you run the risk of having few chips left to bargain with. You bring in 15 draftees that costs you 15 picks and $1.5m (roughly). 3 players in Tom Mitchell, Chad Wingard and Jaeger O'Meara cost 5 first round picks if you include Burton, some other OK picks and probably $2m+ in cap space so it's a different equation to having say Franklin-Roughead-Lewis a 18 year olds plus some other kids who are average or de-list fodder. Even if you get picks 2-5-7 again in the same draft that could be Schache-Parish-Hopper who aren't cornerstone players. If the AFL had a soft cap or no cap then it would be a no brainer to just bypass the draft every year.

Where you don't want to be is where St Kilda and North were a few years ago as a team that is average with a bunch of older players eating up all your salary cap space at the expense of younger talent coming through and then needing to go to the draft because you can't get experienced quality players in. Carlton were in a similar boat too with 150-200 gamers and <30 gamers and not much in between. If you have a bunch of guys in/past their prime not getting the job done and a bunch of babies that rarely translates to success.

 

[Furn2]

Its all a balancing act, and the system is designed to make it next to impossible to do what we are trying to do.

I think the 2 keys are that if you're at the top you cant just drop to the bottom because the damage to your culture etc is too great and 2 if quality players want to come to your club and you've got the money you take them.

Now if you are at the bottom already then thats a different story and the draft is really the only way out.

 

[TallyHawk]

I think the Hawks will struggle massively and will be lucky to finish outside the bottom 4.

Thanks Jab!


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Scotland]

B-2-B-7-2-12.

 

[Turly]

I think next season (2020) will be a real validation of where Hawthorn is at.
After the straight sets exit in 2018 and then the poor start to 2019 I had (gleefully) thought they were in a lot of bother but then, goddamit, they produce a great second half to the season with some younger players clearly showing they have talent.

I genuinely find them hard to predict next year

You are so balanced for a Geelong supporter it’s actually insane.

Great post mate. Truth is, not many know where we are at. We have some quality players starting to get on - Frawley, Burgoyne (obviously), Smith, Shiels, Breust, Gunston, Big boy, Shiels Ceglar, Scully and Stratton. These players can still play at a high level for the next 2-3 years imo.

then you add in Sicily, OMeara, Mitchell, Wingard, Scully, Henderson, Scrimshaw, Worpel, Impey, Lewis, OBrien, Howe.

then you add the youngsters that have showed plenty of promise.

Hanrahan, Nash, Glass, Cousins, Ross, Jiath, Walker, Moore and Koschitzke

Add in pick 11 + another pick between 15-25 + Fin and we’re laughing.

I can see we definitely do not rate next years draft. Our primary goal is to bring in Downie for as minimal as possible. We rate him though so even if a bid comes early I see us matching

 

[WWSD]

Looks like the Hawks are trying to secure another pick inside the top 15 in this years draft.

Hawthorn why you ignore the elite end of the draft?

 

[Freomaniac]

Succeed this

a civilized response

 

[hk89]

These are only my opinions so they aren't right or wrong until we assess later with hindsight.

In 2020 I reckon there's a 90% chance the flag comes from one of Richmond, Eagles, Brisbane, Giants, Collingwood.

Sounds good to me. We won half the games we played against those teams which isn't a bad record against the teams that are 90% certain to win the flag. For your prediction's sake, I hope Giants or Pies don't come up against us during finals next year, as that's nearly half of your 90% gone right there, given this year's results. Given WC beat us at the MCG with a minute or two to go after some woeful inaccuracy from us, and their general record against us at the MCG, I reckon you can write them off too, leaving all your 90% prediction eggs in the Richmond/Brisbane basket. In fact, if we do make finals and manage to avoid Lions and Richmond via a lucky fall of the finals draw, I'm 90% sure we've got the flag in the bag if it comes down to Giants/Pies/WC against us in the GF. A little less optimistic on what happens if we meet doggies though, and unfortunately we can't avoid everyone in the 8 we didn't beat this year, even if that list is rather small.

 

[matey]

Be specific in your timeframe, do you see the Hawks winning a flag in the next 3 years?

Yes. This timeframe is also consistent with what Clarko has spoken about regarding the current transition/rebuild that will hopefully put the club in a position to challenge for silverware again.

 

[juss]

Sounds good to me. We won half the games we played against those teams which isn't a bad record against the teams that are 90% certain to win the flag. For your prediction's sake, I hope Giants or Pies don't come up against us during finals next year, as that's nearly half of your 90% gone right there, given this year's results. Given WC beat us at the MCG with a minute or two to go after some woeful inaccuracy from us, and their general record against us at the MCG, I reckon you can write them off too, leaving all your 90% prediction eggs in the Richmond/Brisbane basket. In fact, if we do make finals and manage to avoid Lions and Richmond via a lucky fall of the finals draw, I'm 90% sure we've got the flag in the bag if it comes down to Giants/Pies/WC against us in the GF. A little less optimistic on what happens if we meet doggies though, and unfortunately we can't avoid everyone in the 8 we didn't beat this year, even if that list is rather small.

Yes. This timeframe is also consistent with what Clarko has spoken about regarding the current transition/rebuild that will hopefully put the club in a position to challenge for silverware again.

Well best of luck and good on the optimism

We'll have to see how it plays out.

 

[parsons nose]

You are so balanced for a Geelong supporter it’s actually insane.

Great post mate. Truth is, not many know where we are at. We have some quality players starting to get on - Frawley, Burgoyne (obviously), Smith, Shiels, Breust, Gunston, Big boy, Shiels Ceglar, Scully and Stratton. These players can still play at a high level for the next 2-3 years imo.

then you add in Sicily, OMeara, Mitchell, Wingard, Scully, Henderson, Scrimshaw, Worpel, Impey, Lewis, OBrien, Howe.

then you add the youngsters that have showed plenty of promise.

Hanrahan, Nash, Glass, Cousins, Ross, Jiath, Walker, Moore and Koschitzke

Add in pick 11 + another pick between 15-25 + Fin and we’re laughing.

I can see we definitely do not rate next years draft. Our primary goal is to bring in Downie for as minimal as possible. We rate him though so even if a bid comes early I see us matching

of those youngsters you mention, none of them, at this stage in their careers, could be considered better than a 50/50 chance of a 100 game career.

 

[Iceman!]

What constitutes falling off a cliff? Wooden spoon? Don't expect that any time soon. Bottom 4? Unlikely but things can go disaster sometimes.
Miss the finals? Certainly possible.
Make the finals but get bundled out week 1? Certainly possible too.
Win a final(s)? Less likely in my opinion but you can't completely rule it out.

It depends what the measure is here, and that's the purpose of this thread. I think many can see Hawthorn sitting middle of the pack and either just making or just missing finals. But is that a success? If we are talking finishing top 4, making at least the PF and then ultimately winning through to the GF and premierships, then perhaps it is necessary to bottom out to get those high picks which usually form core to premiership lists. And what seems to be getting lost here is those picks were absolutely core to Clarkson's flags at Hawthorn.

As a hypothetical would you prefer Hawthorn middle of the pack and contest finals for the next decade, but not make the GF and thus no flags, or bottom 4 for 3 years, get a bunch of elite kids and win another flag or two in 5-8 years?

Of course every footy fan is going to take the flag in that hypothetical, rebuilding through the Draft doesn't guarantee any success though.

 

[juss]

Of course every footy fan is going to take the flag in that hypothetical, rebuilding through the Draft doesn't guarantee any success though.

Fair point

 

[cryptor]

Looks like the Hawks are trying to secure another pick inside the top 15 in this years draft.

Hawthorn why you ignore the elite end of the draft?

I think it was already well established in this thread that only the top 10 is actually the "elite end of the draft". But that could also change depending on a number of factors like the subjective quality of a given draft as determined by opposition supporters, and where Hawthorn's first draft pick happens to land on draft night.