Preview Changes vs Tigers (Round 4)

[The Inbetweener]

Any thoughts as to why we haven’t released a medical update?

Smells fishy to me

Video is on the club’s app

 

[Some Idiot]

Is this coming from the club? There’s not been many, if any Defender Rucks in the comp that I can remember. You just don’t run defenders through the ruck too often as it’s hard work running with a fwd for most of the game.

I doubt he'd play both positions at the same time, more like how Paddy Ryder played CHB for the first few years of his career before becoming a ruckman when he matured if anything.

 

[ScottyDogg]

Video is on the club’s app

Thanks The Inbetweener! Can anyone see an article with the full injury update?

Was hoping to find out if JJ is close.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Thanks The Inbetweener! Can anyone see an article with the full injury update?

Was hoping to find out if JJ is close.

Usually Tuesday’s I think.

 

[doggies ftw]

It's a good point. Whether it's Martin/Sweet or Hannan/Cordy taking 2nd ruck duties, it makes no difference to Timmy's rest (which is an argument often put forward for a 2nd ruck)

It definitely does make a difference to his rest when our 2nd ruck is so crap that we can only use them for the smallest possible amount of contests we can get away with using them for - whereas a decent 70/30 or 60/40 split would be a lot more beneficial - for a guy like Timmy whose strengths are outside the actual ruck contest his best split would be something more like 50/50. Tim is now one of the better contested marks in the league, why would we not want him spending more time floating behind the ball or in the forward line - as good as he’s been this year he’s still sucked in the ruck contests why do we want him wasted in 97% of them?

Plus it’s not just the actual chop out you’ve got to take into account that Timmy has to bust his ass all game against two rucks tag teaming him whilst they are fresh all day - look at the Carlton game, De Koning is pretty shit, even Pittonet is in the bottom percentile of first rucks but Pittonet wore him down and then De Koning jumped all over him. All things being equal Timmy would destroy De Koning but no he couldn’t cope with the double team.

I’ll never say another word on this again if this doesn’t happen, but I am 100% sure if we go in one out against Nank/Soldo - we will get an absolute pasting in the ruck, get rolled out of the middle and inevitably lose the game.

 

[adogsfan5]

Is O’Brien ready to go?

 

[Mofra]

You're not "giving up" stoppages by having Hannan ruck. We still win roughly half of those F50 stoppages when someone like Hannan rucks. Someone like Martin taking those ruck contests will improve this by at most a few percentage points. It's really not worth it. If we sent Naughton into those ruck contests he would win more than he loses, but that doesn't translate into stoppage wins given how low the correlation is between hitouts and clearances.

Just to put things into perspective, from a numbers point of view, a Hitout to Advantage (which are rare), has an expected value of 0.11 clearances.

... then consider Martin's ability (or inability) to cover ground vs Hannan.
If we had a genuine mobile second ruck option they'd be playing right now. We're not going to sacrifice run and positioning around the ground for a marginal improvement in one aspect of the game for 30% of game time.
We tried Cordy but it didn't work.

 

[Mofra]

Plus it’s not just the actual chop out you’ve got to take into account that Timmy has to bust his ass all game against two rucks tag teaming him whilst they are fresh all day - look at the Carlton game, De Koning is pretty shit, even Pittonet is in the bottom percentile of first rucks but Pittonet wore him down and then De Koning jumped all over him. All things being equal Timmy would destroy De Koning but no he couldn’t cope with the double team.

Really?
I'd have him at the dogs in a heartbeat (ditto his brother at Geelong). His athleticism for his size is phenomenal and he'd make an ideal second ruck who presents a threat up forward.

 

[doggies ftw]

Really?
I'd have him at the dogs in a heartbeat (ditto his brother at Geelong). His athleticism for his size is phenomenal and he'd make an ideal second ruck who presents a threat up forward.

I’d have him here too - but his output right now is nothing special, like I was saying all being equal Timmy would eat him alive, but the fact that Tim had to go one out against both is why De Koning made him look second rate. Which is why it’s too simple to say “it doesn’t matter who the 2nd ruck is Tim gets the same rest” etc

 

[Golden_6]

Thanks The Inbetweener! Can anyone see an article with the full injury update?

Was hoping to find out if JJ is close.

JJ was 2-3 weeks last week. I would say it will be a while until we see him, almost a certainly to play managed game time in the VFL first.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Is O’Brien ready to go?

Fitness wise yes, form wise/rustiness maybe not.

 

[Brass Dog]

I’ll never say another word on this again if this doesn’t happen, but I am 100% sure if we go in one out against Nank/Soldo - we will get an absolute pasting in the ruck, get rolled out of the middle and inevitably lose the game.

I get your point, but I don’t see Richmond’s midfield rolling us of of the middle, even if we’re conceding ruck hit outs. It’s never been a strength of theirs, and is looking even weaker this season.

 

[X_box_X]

 

[doggiesin08]

View attachment 1364185

 

[dogwatch]

View attachment 1364185

Not sure how to interpret the McLean/Bruce prognoses. If they were 4 months that's the start of August which is surely ample based on most ACL recoveries.

Josh Bruce was injured on 8 August and operated on within about a week so that's near enough to 12 months. Or 13 months if the prognosis is 5 months from now.

Toby was injured on 4 July and operated on within about a week so that would already be 13 months. Or 14 months if his prognosis is 5 months from now.

Are they really tracking that slowly or cautiously in their recovery or is this just lazy reporting by the club?

To be clear I don't want the club to rush either of them back by any means (especially Toby who is recovering from his second ACL rupture) but this just seems an unusually long time to me for Toby, and maybe for Bruce as well.

 

[Foxman98]

Not sure how to interpret the McLean/Bruce prognoses. If they were 4 months that's the start of August which is surely ample based on most ACL recoveries.

Josh Bruce was injured on 8 August and operated on within about a week so that's near enough to 12 months. Or 13 months if the prognosis is 5 months from now.

Toby was injured on 4 July and operated on within about a week so that would already be 13 months. Or 14 months if his prognosis is 5 months from now.

Are they really tracking that slowly or cautiously in their recovery or is this just lazy reporting by the club?

To be clear I don't want the club to rush either of them back by any means (especially Toby who is recovering from his second ACL rupture) but this just seems an unusually long time to me for Toby, and maybe for Bruce as well.

Cautious it's all dependent on how they feel and what they can progress too and how quickly which is all dependent on the individual

 

[dogwatch]

Cautious it's all dependent on how they feel and what they can progress too and how quickly which is all dependent on the individual

Agree, but my question stands. Is this genuinely where they are at (is that what you are saying, perhaps based on further info?) or is it just sloppy reporting?

The club has never been overly cautious before IIRC, but if there's been a change of thinking at the Kennel I'm OK with that.

I haven't heard much about Toby's progress but I'm pretty sure it was reported a while back that Josh was running and progressing well.

 

[GrahamSmith]

Ins
Crozier
B.Williams
McNeil (Sub)

Outs
Cordy
R.Smith
Wallis (Sub)

 

[Dog 36]

Not sure how to interpret the McLean/Bruce prognoses. If they were 4 months that's the start of August which is surely ample based on most ACL recoveries.

Josh Bruce was injured on 8 August and operated on within about a week so that's near enough to 12 months. Or 13 months if the prognosis is 5 months from now.

Toby was injured on 4 July and operated on within about a week so that would already be 13 months. Or 14 months if his prognosis is 5 months from now.

Are they really tracking that slowly or cautiously in their recovery or is this just lazy reporting by the club?

To be clear I don't want the club to rush either of them back by any means (especially Toby who is recovering from his second ACL rupture) but this just seems an unusually long time to me for Toby, and maybe for Bruce as well.

I would lean towards lazy reporting/telling some fibs as I expect both sooner than the 4 - 5 months.

 

[Foxman98]

Ins
Crozier
B.Williams
McNeil (Sub)

Outs
Cordy
R.Smith
Wallis (Sub)

Williams did nothing at VFL level and Khamis was far better then Crozier.

 

[Cudi]

If there was any week to play a second ruckman/extra resting tall forward this is the week. Grimes and Vlaustin out for Richmond could put them under a lot of pressure down there. Plus they will likely play two ruckman as well.

Got a feeling Naughton is in for a big one.

 

[synchrodogcal]

I'm pretty sure it was reported a while back that Josh was running and progressing well.

can confirm

saw him at the pool a month or more ago and he’d just started running the previous day

had a short chat with him and he seemed like a ripping bloke too

 

[NBates]

can confirm

saw him at the pool a month or more ago and he’d just started running the previous day

had a short chat with him and he seemed like a ripping bloke too

Which pool?

 

[synchrodogcal]

the local swimming pool

 

[Libba39]

Williams did nothing at VFL level and Khamis was far better then Crozier.

Williams did however only play half a game so not sure how you can qualify that.