List Mgmt. Christmas comes early (Nov 28 - 19 sleeps) - Draftee discussion

[Keys]

Link to draft picks held by each club

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

We're unlikely to draft 4 mids with our picks. As someone mentioned earlier, amongst the issues drafting 4 mids with early picks in the one draft year is that you will struggle to give them all senior opportunities.

Short of Busslinger sliding to our pick pick 12, we're almost certain to take a mid at that pick simply because no talls really fall into that pick range.

Talls tend to have more development left in them than smalls at 18 yrs of age, which explains why so many gems are found beyond the 1st round (Barrass, Gov, Cox, McKenzie, Allen). I rather we grab 2 mids at 8 & 12, and settle on Barnett or Keeler in the 20s than Busslinger at 8 and then mids at 12 & 20 which would mean at 20 we're picking up a 2nd tier mid outside of that even cohort that ROB traded down to access.

 

[WCE_phil]

Whilst our 4th pick is inside 30, some of these players would be in consideration for us, and one or two might be worth using a future pick to trade up for if they slide past 40




* There are a few clubs with picks in the 40’s that may not use them so we might be able to use our future 4th to get one of those picks for a slider

TBH if it played out like that i'd happily dump 4 players and try and get 4 more picks between 30-40 for Jacob Ryan, Keeler, Gilbey and Clarke.

 

[AP24]

That HS mock draft was absolutely laughable. "Fills an area of need for West Coast". Ridiculous assertion.
I took a keen interest in McKenzie this year after it emerged he was not going to be available for STK as an NGA player. He has a lot of the attributes we need as a midfielder, so look forward to him being retooled as a half back flanker!

I think near-term Phillipou is the best pick - can develop as a half forward with stints in the midfield and I've got a natural preference for left-footers.

Either of those with our first pick would be great. Not sold on whether Busslinger is a natural fit, and I don't like us reaching for Hewett with our second pick.

Smoky is how far Brayden George slides but I doubt he'll be there with our fourth pick. If we pick McKenzie first then George might be in play with our third pick. Who knows.

For what it's worth, I think it'll be:

9 Phillipou
13 Allan (after a bid on Fletcher)
22 Hewett
28 Barnett

Can't wait to see how horrifically wrong I am

 

[WCE_phil]

We're unlikely to draft 4 mids with our picks. As someone mentioned earlier, amongst the issues drafting 4 mids with early picks in the one draft year is that you will struggle to give them all senior opportunities.

Short of Busslinger sliding to our pick pick 12, we're almost certain to take a mid at that pick simply because no talls really fall into that pick range.

Talls tend to have more development left in them than smalls at 18 yrs of age, which explains why so many gems are found beyond the 1st round (Barrass, Gov, Cox, McKenzie, Allen). I rather we grab 2 mids at 8 & 12, and settle on Barnett or Keeler in the 20s than Busslinger at 8 and then mids at 12 & 20 which would mean at 20 we're picking up a 2nd tier mid outside of that even cohort that ROB traded down to access.

TBH If the chips fall that way I would take Busslinger at 8, then best available mid, Burgiel at 20 and a pressure forward or forward who kicks goals at 26. Unless Jakob Ryan, Keeler or Barnett are there at 26.

I think midfielders who kick goals, particularly ones with great touch and hands like Burgiel are gold.

 

[WCE_phil]

There's literally 4 players i don't want to draft now it seems with our first 2 picks. Tsatas, Jefferson, Ginbey, Allan. I have no idea HTF Allan is rising so much and so quickly on draft boards.

 

[MaxHunt]

How much stock can be put into Cal Twomeys rankings this far out of draft day?

 

[WCE_phil]

How much stock can be put into Cal Twomeys rankings this far out of draft day?

I'd suggest outside of the top 3-4 picks, zero.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

That HS mock draft was absolutely laughable. "Fills an area of need for West Coast". Ridiculous assertion.
I took a keen interest in McKenzie this year after it emerged he was not going to be available for STK as an NGA player. He has a lot of the attributes we need as a midfielder, so look forward to him being retooled as a half back flanker!

I think near-term Phillipou is the best pick - can develop as a half forward with stints in the midfield and I've got a natural preference for left-footers.

Either of those with our first pick would be great. Not sold on whether Busslinger is a natural fit, and I don't like us reaching for Hewett with our second pick.

Smoky is how far Brayden George slides but I doubt he'll be there with our fourth pick. If we pick McKenzie first then George might be in play with our third pick. Who knows.

For what it's worth, I think it'll be:

9 Phillipou
13 Allan (after a bid on Fletcher)
22 Hewett
28 Barnett

Can't wait to see how horrifically wrong I am

First 2 pick we should take the best available pure mids. No exceptions.

9 McKenzie
13 Hewitt (who will not slide past our 13)

Then take at
21 George as forward/mid
Or
Cowen as a defender/mid

I would still prefer another mid Hotton

27
Take a punt on Allen, Gilbey, Hagen, or Jones.





On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[bh90210fan]

I'd suggest outside of the top 3-4 picks, zero.

Does it surprise you that there’s talk of less than 50 kids going in the main draft potentially this year?

 

[Cornelius Roy]

There's literally 4 players i don't want to draft now it seems with our first 2 picks. Tsatas, Jefferson, Ginbey, Allan. I have no idea HTF Allan is rising so much and so quickly on draft boards.

Nesbitt better prepare himself for another FRO is any of these 4 land on our list.

 

[juddy_Like]

Looking at Cal’s leftovers list, feels like he hates short people

 

[WCE_phil]

Does it surprise you that there’s talk of less than 50 kids going in the main draft potentially this year?

Not at all. I said months ago the draft wasn't deep and pointed out key areas where it didn't have specific types of players in quantity and quality it normally would have.

Also almost all of the tall talent hasn't come on as expected.

 

[AP24]

First 2 pick we should take the best available pure mids. No exceptions.

9 McKenzie
13 Hewitt (who will not slide past our 13)

Then take at
21 George as forward/mid
Or
Cowen as a defender/mid

I would still prefer another mid Hotton

27
Take a punt on Allen, Gilbey, Hagen, or Jones.





On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

That's why I floated George - I doubt we draft George if Phillipou is our first pick (positionally similar) however if we get McKenzie, I can see George being the guy at 21. IMO McKenzie and Phillipou suit our needs in different ways, so either of those guys would be a win at #9

 

[paran]

I really like the look of Jaspa Fletcher, tbh. Seems very well developed and balanced.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Draft night scenarios:

The current picking order is :
GWS
Norf
Norf
Drug Rats
Suns
Hawks
Cats
Eagles

It is getting pretty clear as to who the top 3 to 4 are. The rest feels very open.

Who out of the above are likely to sell and slide back before us? I am guessing it is most likely the Suns with a view of taking Hollands. I sense the price for anyone else being too high.

Therefore I am thinking who might come hard for us to slide back and why?

Straight after us are
Saints - offer of 9 and 28
Blues - offer of 10 and 29
Dogs - offer of 11 and 30

I cannot see any of these clubs paying overs to jump up 1 to 3 spots. All 3 clubs have their next pick at the 28 to 30 range and depends who was left of the board, I might be tempted but not likely, more likely the Saints and driven my who we might get at the very next pick. If McKenzie was there at 8, I'd hope we just take him - sorry Saints. That said, if we could still get Clark, bingo.

The reality is - have the discussion internally and be ready to consider on draft night.

Those are the clubs that would allow us 2 picks inside 12.


Sliding back to after 12 gets less enticing.

With GWS holding 15, 18 and 19 and Sydney holding 14 and 17, I would certainly take the call but the price to slide back that becomes far more expensive. This would take us to just outside the first sweet spot after our next pick. That said, if there are some options gone prior to 8 that extend the sweet spot, it might be worth the risk.

Would I accept from GWS 15 and next year's first (theirs or Richmond's) for 8? I'd probably get greedy and look at 15 plus 18 or 19 plus GWS Future R1 for 8 and 26. That would leave us with 12, 15, 18/19, 20 and and extra R1 pick next year. It means we are out of the draft with 4 picks inside 20 (ignoring F/S).

What about Sydney? 14 and 17 for 8 is unders. Their next pick is 42 so not interested there. I'd want 14, 17 and future first for 8 and future second - preferably Port's not ours but ours would be OK depending who is still there at 8. That would leave us with 12, 14, 17, 20 and 26 plus an upgrade of a future R2 for a future R1.

For a club to offer overs, there will need to be a player they really want. I am thinking a Busslinger, Clark, McKenzie or Humphries. The latter is the most likely one prospect that would entice me to slide as I am not sold on him yet. In other words, I would need a name of who either GWS or Sydney were targeting.

I am not saying it is fair.
I am not saying it will happen.
Clubs will have these internal discussions as part of the draft night scenarios.

 

[WCE_phil]

That's why I floated George - I doubt we draft George if Phillipou is our first pick (positionally similar) however if we get McKenzie, I can see George being the guy at 21. IMO McKenzie and Phillipou suit our needs in different ways, so either of those guys would be a win at #9

Here's the thing. Unless Phillipou flies up draft boards I think we can get Mackenzie at 8/9 and Phillipou at 13. I don't see any chance of it happening the other way round.

The way I see it now is we're left with 2 of Clark, Mackenzie, Busslinger at 9. I just don't see how O'Brien goes past Busslinger if he's there.

 

[Obeanie1]

Whilst our 4th pick is inside 30, some of these players would be in consideration for us, and one or two might be worth using a future pick to trade up for if they slide past 40




* There are a few clubs with picks in the 40’s that may not use them so we might be able to use our future 4th to get one of those picks for a slider

Szybkcowski at 30.

Burgiel at 28 look like good value.

Big slides in the Oct Phantom by Twomey.

 

[Rowan18]

Here's the thing. Unless Phillipou flies up draft boards I think we can get Mackenzie at 8/9 and Phillipou at 13. I don't see any chance of it happening the other way round.

The way I see it now is we're left with 2 of Clark, Mackenzie, Busslinger at 9. I just don't see how O'Brien goes past Busslinger if he's there.

I guess we hope cats take Busslinger with the pick before ours. Or we do a deal with the Dogs to slide back.

 

[Keys]

Draft night scenarios:

The current picking order is :
GWS
Norf
Norf
Drug Rats
Suns
Hawks
Cats
Eagles

It is getting pretty clear as to who the top 3 to 4 are. The rest feels very open.

Who out of the above are likely to sell and slide back before us? I am guessing it is most likely the Suns with a view of taking Hollands. I sense the price for anyone else being too high.

Therefore I am thinking who might come hard for us to slide back and why?

Straight after us are
Saints - offer of 9 and 28
Blues - offer of 10 and 29
Dogs - offer of 11 and 30

I cannot see any of these clubs paying overs to jump up 1 to 3 spots. All 3 clubs have their next pick at the 28 to 30 range and depends who was left of the board, I might be tempted but not likely, more likely the Saints and driven my who we might get at the very next pick. If McKenzie was there at 8, I'd hope we just take him - sorry Saints. That said, if we could still get Clark, bingo.

The reality is - have the discussion internally and be ready to consider on draft night.

Those are the clubs that would allow us 2 picks inside 12.


Sliding back to after 12 gets less enticing.

With GWS holding 15, 18 and 19 and Sydney holding 14 and 17, I would certainly take the call but the price to slide back that becomes far more expensive. This would take us to just outside the first sweet spot after our next pick. That said, if there are some options gone prior to 8 that extend the sweet spot, it might be worth the risk.

Would I accept from GWS 15 and next year's first (theirs or Richmond's) for 8? I'd probably get greedy and look at 15 plus 18 or 19 plus GWS Future R1 for 8 and 26. That would leave us with 12, 15, 18/19, 20 and and extra R1 pick next year. It means we are out of the draft with 4 picks inside 20 (ignoring F/S).

What about Sydney? 14 and 17 for 8 is unders. Their next pick is 42 so not interested there. I'd want 14, 17 and future first for 8 and future second - preferably Port's not ours but ours would be OK depending who is still there at 8. That would leave us with 12, 14, 17, 20 and 26 plus an upgrade of a future R2 for a future R1.

For a club to offer overs, there will need to be a player they really want. I am thinking a Busslinger, Clark, McKenzie or Humphries. The latter is the most likely one prospect that would entice me to slide as I am not sold on him yet. In other words, I would need a name of who either GWS or Sydney were targeting.

I am not saying it is fair.
I am not saying it will happen.
Clubs will have these internal discussions as part of the draft night scenarios.

Bulldogs

They don’t have 30, they do have 21 and 39

Would 8 and 26 for 11 and 21 work?

Assuming Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Tsatas, Ginbey, Humphrey, Clark are gone by our pick

It leaves Mackenzie, Hollands, Busslinger, Phillipou, Hewett and Jefferson. Best case would be bulldogs taking Mackenzie so that Saints go Jefferson then we have a choice of two from whichever of Hollands, Busslinger, Phillipou and Hewett Carlton don’t take

We would then have 20 and 21

 

[Chad in Vegas]

Bulldogs

They don’t have 30, they do have 21 and 39

Would 8 and 26 for 11 and 21 work?

Assuming Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Tsatas, Ginbey, Humphrey, Clark are gone by our pick

It leaves Mackenzie, Hollands, Busslinger, Phillipou, Hewett and Jefferson. Best case would be bulldogs taking Mackenzie so that Saints go Jefferson then we have a choice of two from whichever of Hollands, Busslinger, Phillipou and Hewett Carlton don’t take

We would then have 20 and 21

Doesn't seem worth it from our end on first look. Who could we likely get at 21 that we would miss out on at 26?

 

[Keys]

Doesn't seem worth it from our end on first look. Who could we likely get at 21 that we would miss out on at 26?

Barnett, Keeler, Allan, Jones, Burgiel, George, Hustwaite would be players that could be there at 21 but gone by 26

If we were intending to take Busslinger at 8 and he’s still there at 11 then that’s a win. Worst case is aside from Jefferson we’re left with Hewett and Hollands if it’s Phillipou, Mackenzie and Busslinger taken between 8 and 11

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Wish we shat the bed and finished second last in any season other than this one.

 

[Hook461123]

Bulldogs

They don’t have 30, they do have 21 and 39

Would 8 and 26 for 11 and 21 work?

Assuming Cadman, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Tsatas, Ginbey, Humphrey, Clark are gone by our pick

It leaves Mackenzie, Hollands, Busslinger, Phillipou, Hewett and Jefferson. Best case would be bulldogs taking Mackenzie so that Saints go Jefferson then we have a choice of two from whichever of Hollands, Busslinger, Phillipou and Hewett Carlton don’t take

We would then have 20 and 21

I would seriosly lol if that happened. It would be almost funny (crying on the inside) to not have a top 10 pick this year after the year we had. Continue our trend of not having any top 10 picks for over a decade (yeah i know its an even draft).

Seriously though I hope we don't pass on Mackenzie or Poo at 8 to try and be tricky with sliding up a couple of picks in the twenties.

 

[Get_The_Gaff]

I can comment on this one, I can't comment on who is trying to trade up, who they are trying to trade up for etc.

Carlton have already expressed they want to trade up . So have the bulldogs

If either of Humphrey or tsatas are there i would be happy to do what we did last year and slide back 2 - 3 spots for an extra future 2nd .

Slide down to 11 and pick phillipou/ busslinger

Then trade our pick 12 with gws for

Wce 12+ 20 + f4

Gws 15 + 18 + 31

Hewett should still be their at 16 but wouldn't want to leave it any longer

Then have 18 26 and 31 to target a small classy player and a couple of talls

 

[SumaGodCoach]

8 and 26 for 11, 21 and BL 2023 2nd(likely around 35) I'd do, depending on who makes it through to 8 and who we expect to last until 11. Keep in mind that this trade would give us 2 picks in a row at 11 and 12 and 2 picks in a row at 20 and 21. There is some added value in having consecutive picks.