Opinion Collingwood Almanac 2016

[Prochard123]

I'd like to think conservatively but I'm anticipating from all reports substantial turnover.

You've got Nathan talking about guys playing for their careers. We're hearing about all these players we're interested in and teams interested in our plays.

So I think (despite my preference) that we'll be active.

Witts is in demand and can't get a game. So someone will grab him.

Cloke is in demand and also seems like he'll request a trade somewhere.

With talk about the club perusing a key defender (with Hurley before re-signing, Marchbank and now Tomlinson rumoured) I can't help but think Nathan Brown may be another the club move.

--
On the other side of things. Lin Jong and then GWS boys including but not limited to: Hoskin-Elliott, Tomlinson and Marchbank seem to be among those we have interest in.

Nathan also broadly has stated an interest in improving the clubs key position stocks and potentially acquiring a player or key position player or two this offseason.
--
I don't think there will be a realistic key forward to target this offseason. Rory Lobb and Cam McCarthy are two I'd target but can't imagine we'd get. Perhaps we view Tomlinson as a key forward? Beyond Tomlinson or lower level players I can't see anything big happening there.

--
Marley Williams I hope stays. He is in my view the clubs best general defender and someone I like the scope of to play elsewhere around the ground. He has just had a down year and his injuries that he can rebound from.

Ed Langdon has expressed interest in moving to a Victorian club. In talking to one of the Pies recruiters about Langdon in his draft year, the recruiter expressed no particular interest in Langdon at the time, so I can't help but think even with the clubs need for a small forward that they would pass on him again. His high disposal numbers this past month have been intriguing but I can't say I'm sold either with a mostly uncontested game - which often translates over time to inconsistent performance, even more so in forwards than other positions along with low scoreboard impact at less than a goal per game.

What exactly are you expecting from Witts, Cloke and Brown?
Personally I think we should really try hold onto Witts unless we can somehow get a pick such as Brisbane's second round pick. Then maybe we can package Brown and Cloke for a mid second round pick. This gives us 3 picks in the 20-26 range, and depending the availability of KPF/KPD in the draft, we could either package 2 or 3 of them for a higher pick (GWS's first rounder for instance, they might give their first rounder to us in exchange for extra academy points), or we could just use the picks in the draft. Maybe it's just me, but early second round historically is where the value is at. It seems to be that sweet spot where the picks don't cost a fortune, and the yield (players) have good talent but is overlooked for 1 or 2 deficiency. If developed well, can easily turn into best 15 player.

 

[Knightmare]

What exactly are you expecting from Witts, Cloke and Brown?
Personally I think we should really try hold onto Witts unless we can somehow get a pick such as Brisbane's second round pick. Then maybe we can package Brown and Cloke for a mid second round pick. This gives us 3 picks in the 20-26 range, and depending the availability of KPF/KPD in the draft, we could either package 2 or 3 of them for a higher pick (GWS's first rounder for instance, they might give their first rounder to us in exchange for extra academy points), or we could just use the picks in the draft. Maybe it's just me, but early second round historically is where the value is at. It seems to be that sweet spot where the picks don't cost a fortune, and the yield (players) have good talent but is overlooked for 1 or 2 deficiency. If developed well, can easily turn into best 15 player.

A trade of Cloke and Brown makes me uncomfortable. It's a step backwards and makes us worse. They're two of our best three key position players and players who should in theory be able to still be with us into their 30s and in the case of Cloke until 35 if he wanted to. That's a real weakening of the clubs key position stocks. It's also not likely to motivate Dane Swan to come back for another season, who I view as an essential component to making meaningful strides in 2017.

I just don't believe in giving established players like that, but the club probably will get rid of some.

Second round picks would be around what the club would probably go for if we are to go down that hypothetical. Witts also would be worth a second round pick, and you'd hope earlier rather than later.

If Witts does go, I'd like to see the club take on a Will Minson or similar if available/willing as a rookie for depth and veteran leadership purposes given how young our ruckmen are.

Late first round and early second round picks can be a good position to be selecting. There is again this year a chance for value there. Just in any region of the draft, 75/25 the team getting the established player or the best player in the deal tend to win.

Back onto the club though, I'm not seeing the club loving this draft. The strength in this draft is that there are lots of good inside midfielders or versatile midfielders early draft but not many good genuine outside midfielders or key position players. So there is no real reason for the club to be trading players for picks unless as I'm assuming they will, move picks gained for players from other lists - probably in the most part GWS players would be what the club would have a view towards.

If we do end up gaining picks, I wouldn't have any issue moving them for 2017 picks, with next years draft looking probably a bit stronger and much better for key position players inside the first round.

 

[PIEWITHSAUCE]

A trade of Cloke and Brown makes me uncomfortable. It's a step backwards and makes us worse.
If we do end up gaining picks, I wouldn't have any issue moving them for 2017 picks, with next years draft looking probably a bit stronger and much better for key position players inside the first round.

I would've thought there is Buckley's of that (no pun intended) given that Nathan tonight was very open in admitting that he didn't expect to be at the club if we didn't make finals in 2017. Not a great environment for long term thinking unless Bucks is selfless in the extreme.

Bucks also said (I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that it wasn't just spin) that getting Cloke back to form is important for Darcy's development.

I hope you're right about it coming down to Swanny's motivation but I fear not - and having suffered a similar (but worse) injury in the last few years I can well and truly understand if he doesn't make it back

Interesting thoughts KM as always.

 

[Prochard123]

Hey KM,
As you mentioned before, the 2017 draft seems like quite a decent pool for KPF/KPD compared to this year. In terms of disposing Witts/Cloke, would you be open to packaging one of these 2 for potentially a 2017 first rounder? I'd hope so, except Buckley seems to acknowledge the fact that his time is running out, and might have to focus on immediate success rather than long term talent.

What do you think?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,
As you mentioned before, the 2017 draft seems like quite a decent pool for KPF/KPD compared to this year. In terms of disposing Witts/Cloke, would you be open to packaging one of these 2 for potentially a 2017 first rounder? I'd hope so, except Buckley seems to acknowledge the fact that his time is running out, and might have to focus on immediate success rather than long term talent.

What do you think?

I value Cloke at a top 10 pick. Unless someone offers a top 10 pick or projected top 10 pick for any year. I wouldn't be moving him in isolation let alone in combination with another player.

This valuation far exceeds his worth on the trade market (likely a 2nd round pick) and his standard of play this year which you'd only consider moving a 3rd round selection for if you didn't know how good he was previously.

Unless there is something wrong with Cloke's hands that won't allow him in the future to mark like he used to - taking the air out of the ball. Or something wrong with his legs to prevent him from pushing up the ground as he used to. Or his mind is towards retirement in the immediate future, with his love completely gone for the game. Cloke with his durability and the history of his father has the capacity to play deep into his 30s, if the desire is there.

So moving Cloke and Witts for a 2017 first round pick, unless you're talking a 2017 1st round pick (projected top 10) and an early second round pick for this year or some other second round pick for next year, or an equivalent level player, I probably wouldn't be moving them in combination.

In saying that, I'd fully expect the club to jump at a deal of Cloke and Witts for a 2017 first round pick (assuming inside say the top 15). The club given their reluctance to play the pair will consider their options and be more open to dealing at something more like the market rather than I would be.

--
As a rule I value established players much more highly than picks or young players who haven't established themselves (just knowing the odds from previous trade weeks and where the value historically has been and continues to be). The likes of Tom Hawkins, Eric Mackenzie and to a lesser extent Nathan Brown. Those guys like Cloke I'm viewing as heavily underrated, in a similar way to how Brian Lake was being underrated towards the end of his tenure for Western Bulldogs or Saverio Rocca after that 2000 season when cut by the Pies. A Hawthorn or similar contending team would be wise to come knocking. These guys among other establish players can be had without needing to give up the world to acquire them. They've each got more footy left in them but just need a team willing to accept them for who they are.

 

[Knightmare]

Draft targets added.

Free agent and trade targets updated.

Player value rankings and player preference to play list also updated.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I value Cloke at a top 10 pick. Unless someone offers a top 10 pick or projected top 10 pick for any year. I wouldn't be moving him in isolation let alone in combination with another player.

This valuation far exceeds his worth on the trade market (likely a 2nd round pick) and his standard of play this year which you'd only consider moving a 3rd round selection for if you didn't know how good he was previously.

Unless there is something wrong with Cloke's hands that won't allow him in the future to mark like he used to - taking the air out of the ball. Or something wrong with his legs to prevent him from pushing up the ground as he used to. Or his mind is towards retirement in the immediate future, with his love completely gone for the game. Cloke with his durability and the history of his father has the capacity to play deep into his 30s, if the desire is there.

So moving Cloke and Witts for a 2017 first round pick, unless you're talking a 2017 1st round pick (projected top 10) and an early second round pick for this year or some other second round pick for next year, or an equivalent level player, I probably wouldn't be moving them in combination.

In saying that, I'd fully expect the club to jump at a deal of Cloke and Witts for a 2017 first round pick (assuming inside say the top 15). The club given their reluctance to play the pair will consider their options and be more open to dealing at something more like the market rather than I would be.

--
As a rule I value established players much more highly than picks or young players who haven't established themselves (just knowing the odds from previous trade weeks and where the value historically has been and continues to be). The likes of Tom Hawkins, Eric Mackenzie and to a lesser extent Nathan Brown. Those guys like Cloke I'm viewing as heavily underrated, in a similar way to how Brian Lake was being underrated towards the end of his tenure for Western Bulldogs or Saverio Rocca after that 2000 season when cut by the Pies. A Hawthorn or similar contending team would be wise to come knocking. These guys among other establish players can be had without needing to give up the world to acquire them. They've each got more footy left in them but just need a team willing to accept them for who they are.

Agreement here.
Getting a lowly pick for Cloke is bad ally giving away either great depth player or better still, a strong key forward (if he returns to something of Cloke of old).
What's the point of low pick so we put on the list a Hail Mary v established experienced rock?
Unless salary cap is required say for a Fyfe (just an example) not point moving on the edoerience for a guess low pick.
Interesting times.
I'd want value for cloke

 

[Sco80]

Agreement here.
Getting a lowly pick for Cloke is bad ally giving away either great depth player or better still, a strong key forward (if he returns to something of Cloke of old).
What's the point of low pick so we put on the list a Hail Mary v established experienced rock?
Unless salary cap is required say for a Fyfe (just an example) not point moving on the edoerience for a guess low pick.
Interesting times.
I'd want value for cloke

Agreed. Trading Cloke is giving whichever team is in the window a freebie in my eyes. Best to retain him considering Moore is still young and a little injury prone

 

[Knightmare]

Agreement here.
Getting a lowly pick for Cloke is bad ally giving away either great depth player or better still, a strong key forward (if he returns to something of Cloke of old).
What's the point of low pick so we put on the list a Hail Mary v established experienced rock?
Unless salary cap is required say for a Fyfe (just an example) not point moving on the edoerience for a guess low pick.
Interesting times.
I'd want value for cloke

It's a several part discussion.

Trading Cloke (and similar can be said of other established players) is from a win now perspective a step backwards, it loses veteran leadership which hurts young player development.

The other element little spoken about is fan interest, memberships and match attendance.

Seeing the poor turnout at Etihad last night (in a game that most probably tipped Collingwood to win). Having less than 20k is ridiculous, regardless of it being a night game and the weather.

Gaining names and guys who can help you win now helps with those elements, encouraging more good players to join the club but also building that fan interest/membership/attendence.

My position is the same as yours. If Cloke can be upgraded to a Fyfe - lets say Fremantle accept a deal of Cloke, Brown and something for Fyfe. That's ok then.

Otherwise I'm not tempted to move Cloke, Brown or any other established best 22 player.

 

[Knightmare]

I'd also add regarding premiership windows.

Our best chance to win is while Pendlebury remains. GWS aren't quite yet a premiership team (they can be a couple of years from now onwards) and the dynamic up the top is there is no genuine top team anymore.

Hawthorn are weakened and very beatable without good height/size. Geelong are inconsistent. Sydney are good but beatable. Adelaide similar though without the star power.

Now the way I see it is the best opportunity to make a charge towards the top.

There is a point where you have to stop taking backward steps, and stop treading water, as we seem to have each year under Buckley just looking to get younger and gain younger talent. We have a fair young foundation now, so gaining those quality established players and veteran leaders are what this team need to make a genuine push towards the top.

 

[Scodog10]

Knightmare I'm intrigued by your statement on the previous page re Williams being our premier general defender. I wouldn't have guessed this 6 months ago, but Howe has raced passed him for that title, IMO. Over the course of the past fortnight he has played on and pantsed Stringer then had a career game chopping out on Lynch. With a full compliment of defenders he'll be a fantastic asset given we'd likely be able to release him onto the fourth or fifth forward enhancing his intercept game further.

His improvement in season has been startling and by comparison Williams regression equally startling. As of right now the only area of Howe's game holding him back from becoming an Easton Wood level general defender is his concentration. He has too many heart in mouth moments where I can't help that in a better defensive system with more experienced players around him could be eradicated from his game. I love players that take the game on, but there's a limit when we press as high as we do.

Overall the defensive group has come together well they just need to revert to Presti style ball movement when seeing Brown in space i.e. don't give it to him. Plus a little luck keeping Ramsay, Sinclair and Shaz on the park wouldn't go astray.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare I'm intrigued by your statement on the previous page re Williams being our premier general defender. I wouldn't have guessed this 6 months ago, but Howe has raced passed him for that title, IMO. Over the course of the past fortnight he has played on and pantsed Stringer then had a career game chopping out on Lynch. With a full compliment of defenders he'll be a fantastic asset given we'd likely be able to release him onto the fourth or fifth forward enhancing his intercept game further.

His improvement in season has been startling and by comparison Williams regression equally startling. As of right now the only area of Howe's game holding him back from becoming an Easton Wood level general defender is his concentration. He has too many heart in mouth moments where I can't help that in a better defensive system with more experienced players around him could be eradicated from his game. I love players that take the game on, but there's a limit when we press as high as we do.

Overall the defensive group has come together well they just need to revert to Presti style ball movement when seeing Brown in space i.e. don't give it to him. Plus a little luck keeping Ramsay, Sinclair and Shaz on the park wouldn't go astray.

Most seems to have gone off Williams but based on his prior form and the attributes he has. I look at him still as someone who can have a substantial impact by position.

I've moved Howe ahead of Williams on my player preference to play list (10th v 13th) based on Howe's superior 2016 season.

But Williams I still overall look at as the clubs best general defender.

They're completely contrasting players (which makes them suitable to play in the same part of the ground). Howe an intercept marking specialist and certainly the less unreliable kick of the two. Williams by contrast is a ground ball winning specialist. I just look at Williams as having a few further strengths beyond just this. 1v1 Williams holds his own consistently and has the speed/agility to go with the quicker opposition forwards. He also has the capacity to provide more run and carry, rarely getting caught with the ball with that explosive sidestep he has. Williams for me is the better overall two way player.

With Williams my expectation is he'll get back to playing more like his former self in 2017. There isn't anything I can see that should be preventing him from playing good footy. If his form doesn't pick up in 2017, then I'd be pretty open to shifting him elsewhere on the field. He could very easily play as a crumbing/pressuring forward given his ground ball winning strength. Similarly through the midfield he has the power to him to potentially be effective. So Williams overall is one of the players I place a high priority on retaining as a core piece who can be a difference maker.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I'd also add regarding premiership windows.

Our best chance to win is while Pendlebury remains. GWS aren't quite yet a premiership team (they can be a couple of years from now onwards) and the dynamic up the top is there is no genuine top team anymore.

Hawthorn are weakened and very beatable without good height/size. Geelong are inconsistent. Sydney are good but beatable. Adelaide similar though without the star power.

Now the way I see it is the best opportunity to make a charge towards the top.

There is a point where you have to stop taking backward steps, and stop treading water, as we seem to have each year under Buckley just looking to get younger and gain younger talent. We have a fair young foundation now, so gaining those quality established players and veteran leaders are what this team need to make a genuine push towards the top.

I think you need a job assisting Derek and Matt.
Be a good start.
Can't understand why we don't have more spotters, recruiters, assistants etc.
That's the gold seekers who if they find the nuggets builds a list from OK to elite.

 

[Scodog10]

Agree to disagree I suppose Knight, but I have to say WTF to rating Marley the better kick of the two? He is in the bottom five on our list in terms of skill by foot with both serious technical and decision making flaws.

Have a look at a replay of last night. There was a point in the game where he ran 30 metres (without bouncing) on his left foot then decided to handball to the ground. He has no confidence in his kicking whatsoever and looks to have the yips.

Only Greenwood, Marsh, Brown and Toovey could be talked about as worse ball users.

 

[Unknown Identity]

Thoughts on Giants Jake Barrett KM?

Prolific ball winner at NEAFL level, personally have him above Anthony Miles at the same age who has been pretty handy for Tigers.

Would love him to be packaged up with WHE.

 

[Sco80]

Agree to disagree I suppose Knight, but I have to say WTF to rating Marley the better kick of the two? He is in the bottom five on our list in terms of skill by foot with both serious technical and decision making flaws.

Have a look at a replay of last night. There was a point in the game where he ran 30 metres (without bouncing) on his left foot then decided to handball to the ground. He has no confidence in his kicking whatsoever and looks to have the yips.

Only Greenwood, Marsh, Brown and Toovey could be talked about as worse ball users.

Would be best if we tried to get something for Marley. He's definitely nqr at the moment

 

[Scodog10]

Would be best if we tried to get something for Marley. He's definitely nqr at the moment

I don't really know myself. I'd like to hold him, but whatever his issues are I don't think the space of a pre-season will solve them and I genuinely don't know if the club is equipped to handle them given its dragged on for so long.

I can't help reverting to his mystery absence earlier this year and ponder what happened. He wasn't injured, but I guess we'll never know.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I don't really know myself. I'd like to hold him, but whatever his issues are I don't think the space of a pre-season will solve them and I genuinely don't know if the club is equipped to handle them given its dragged on for so long.

I can't help reverting to his mystery absence earlier this year and ponder what happened. He wasn't injured, but I guess we'll never know.

People?
Always humans have unpredictability.
All part of the puzzle that is unlocking best play out of humans.
Fingers crossed Markey gets back to best play for us 2017.
Suspect he may be going to WA.
But we'll see.

 

[Knightmare]

Agree to disagree I suppose Knight, but I have to say WTF to rating Marley the better kick of the two? He is in the bottom five on our list in terms of skill by foot with both serious technical and decision making flaws.

Have a look at a replay of last night. There was a point in the game where he ran 30 metres (without bouncing) on his left foot then decided to handball to the ground. He has no confidence in his kicking whatsoever and looks to have the yips.

Only Greenwood, Marsh, Brown and Toovey could be talked about as worse ball users.

You might need to re-read my comments.

I said that Howe is the less unreliable kick relative to Williams (in other words Howe is the more consistent kick of the two).

I think you need a job assisting Derek and Matt.
Be a good start.
Can't understand why we don't have more spotters, recruiters, assistants etc.
That's the gold seekers who if they find the nuggets builds a list from OK to elite.

Within the industry I see some holes in recruiting strategies and philosophies probably more so than junior talent spotting which has over time improved. It's more once the recruiting strategies and philosophies improve that things will be optimisted and the greatest success will be achieved by clubs from a recruiting perspective.

Our recruiters have for a long time done a good job with talent ID. They could always do with more numbers.

On a personal level, I'm enjoying my writing for ESPN and if anything I'd be more open to providing some freelance advise more so than being inside the inner sanctum. I enjoy the freedom and flexibility in what I do and being able to choose the games I go to rather than being sent out with the expectation that I get to four games a day.

There are plenty looking to get into the industry though who would be worthwhile additions to clubland.

Thoughts on Giants Jake Barrett KM?

Prolific ball winner at NEAFL level, personally have him above Anthony Miles at the same age who has been pretty handy for Tigers.

Would love him to be packaged up with WHE.

I've on page one completed a whole GWS list analysis which may be worth checking out and I do give Barrett a mention there.

Barrett I view as capable depth and someone who can step into a midfield and play a part without necessarily being a clear best 22 player. Barrett and Miles really are much of a muchness as those hard nosed midfield accumulators. I don't rate one clearly as being ahead of the other with Barrett at much the same stage Miles was at, around the same point with both highly productive in the NEAFL from the get go.

Barrett would be good on a team without much of a midfield eg. Essendon where like Miles for Richmond there is that room to accommodate him and give him regular opportunities. With Collingwood's midfield deep and stacked, I see no real reason to go after him with no one he would clearly play ahead of.

 

[Scodog10]

Gotcha Knight I missed that double negative!

 

[Schraderbrau]

Williams is not a natural footballer, he needs at least a couple of weeks to find the pace of the action. Until then his decision-making and disposal is bad imo. When he's playing well I don't have an issue with his disposal (though it is still just average) but he is one of the better small stoppers in the comp imo. I can't see him doing particularly well in the midfield though as has been suggested, certainly not better than as a small defender. I could tolerate losing him because we have good depth in that position but only if the compensation is decent. I doubt that it would be given his 2016 season.

 

[soreplums]

Williams has had an interrupted season beginning from pre-season training. This may be the main cause of his inconsistencies.

I still feel he has a role with us tidying up the ground ball in the backline, but he does need to sharpen up his basic kicking skills just to find a safe target.

In saying that, if he is replaced by a scharenburg or Ramsay and if we can get something of value for thin that can address a need then we should explore options

 

[Knightmare]

Gotcha Knight I missed that double negative!

I only phrased it that way with Howe sometimes lacking consistency.

Williams is I completely agree one of our least reliable kicks.

 

[pugsville]

I surprised you don't rate Josh Smith a little higher, finds the footy, generally composed and kicking I think is good,
(stats say DE 80% )

Jessie White is useful depth, played about as good as Cloke this year, sure he's not clear best 22 or like to get better, but handy depth, and unless traded for value leaves the list very short in the ruck/forward.

 

[Knightmare]

I surprised you don't rate Josh Smith a little higher, finds the footy, generally composed and kicking I think is good,
(stats say DE 80% )

Jessie White is useful depth, played about as good as Cloke this year, sure he's not clear best 22 or like to get better, but handy depth, and unless traded for value leaves the list very short in the ruck/forward.

I've toyed with having Smith higher.

But he isn't higher because he is very outside (88 contested/ 273 uncontested possessions), lack of hurt factor and skill errors. His disposal efficiency is high as a result of his outside nature, lots of touches out wide and down back and his view to find mostly safe, short targets. But can find the footy and has a super work rate.

Smith is very capable at AFL level as a component who can play as required.

Lack of hurt factors and skill errors is a complaint that covers well over half of our list.

Smith is on the improve though and has had a good first season. His growth along with Wills over the next year will be very interesting.

As for White, I have fit him into the worthwhile depth category but I don't have him all that high on the list overall. Still an inconsistent forward with inadequate production and while he can have good games against poor opposition, he doesn't against good teams. For dual position forward/ruck types Cox and Moore is plenty.

Cloke while is numbers are very comparable to White's this season, I look at more as having a poor season which based on his statistical history I look at as something he can rebound from given his durability and his fathers longevity.