Opinion Collingwood Almanac 2016

[DaVe86]

In relation to the delisted Kangaroos, the only one really standing out to me is Harvey. I reckon we should be right into him.

Not only does he add experience to a very inexperienced side, but he also fills a list need which is a small forward. Regardless of his age, he is also very durable and basically never misses a game. So I actually reckon he could give 2 years of quality service. Plus we can pick him up for nothing via the PSD!

However, I see no need for Petrie or Dal Santo. In relation to Dal Santo, I think Aish already plays in a similar style and I think we need to keep pumping games into him. In relation to Petrie, I think he is on par with Cloke, so don't see any real benefit from trading Cloke and picking up Petrie (unless of course we got a top 15 pick for Cloke in which case you wouldn't say no!).

 

[Schraderbrau]

I think you overrate Williams Knight. His kicking and ball handling skills are terrible. They make for a terrible mix if you are also playing the likes of Brown and Marsh. We can't afford to carry that many poor ball users out of the back half. At least the other two bring effort. Williams no longer does that for us. Given Ramsay and Sinclair are already better players and Maynard is progressing quickly I can't agree with your opinion thst he our best all round defender. He hasn't been for a long time now and I no longer see a future for him at our club.

I think he could be, with Witts, an important part of trading back into the draft this year and securing a 1st rounder. 2nd rounders traded into the 1st. And giving us more opportunities next year to throw around some of our cap and attract a big name.

My slightly different view is that if Williams gets a decent run at it he's a good AFL defender -arguably our best small in 2017. But he's not that much better than Sinclair, and we've got Ramsay and Maynard coming through who could both end up better. That's a pretty good surplus of young small defenders and losing Williams is not going to damage our output all that much and on that basis we should be using his value to acquire picks or players for positions where we are clearly deficient.

 

[DaVe86]

Agree, Williams has simply been disappointing. Although I do think he can turn into a solid B/B+ grade inside midfielder for another club.

Something went horribly wrong for Marley this year. I wish I knew what it was. Surely he hasn't lost his allegiance to the club given the support we've given him in the past.

I think he has battled injuries which has left him devoid of confidence. At this best, his footskills are ok. When he is a tad out of form, those footskills are abysmal as they were yesterday.

I reckon Maynard, Sinclair and Ramsey are better options in that role. I'd have no issue trading Marley if we can get some value around the pick 25 mark.

 

[Schraderbrau]

Agree, Williams has simply been disappointing. Although I do think he can turn into a solid B/B+ grade inside midfielder for another club.

Poor handballing and unclean hands on the deck disqualify him from playing midfield. Those two things are critical to being a good inside mid and he has neither. What distinguishes him as a player is his 1v1 ability through his combination of strength and speed.

 

[DaVe86]

My slightly different view is that if Williams gets a decent run at it he's a good AFL defender -arguably our best small in 2017. But he's not that much better than Sinclair, and we've got Ramsay and Maynard coming through who could both end up better. That's a pretty good surplus of young small defenders and losing Williams is not going to damage our output all that much and on that basis we should be using his value to acquire picks or players for positions where we are clearly deficient.

Agreed, we have a lot of back pockets (admittingly none who can really stay on the park), so I'd have no issue trading out Marley if it meant securing another 2nd round pick. I think we can package these picks to upgrade inside the top 20. Marley and Jarrod Witts present some trade currency, as does Oxley. I think if we play it smart, we can get a first round pick. If we can secure a first round pick, it gives us more freedom to trade next years pick if a gun like Tom Lynch became available.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

The question what (on known players on our list) is our best 6 with say one or two others running through so to speak.
(Like a squad if you will, assuming the extra player or two is in the 22 ie bench or on wing etc)
My dilemma is on current list what we do with brown?

B. Scharenberg ~ Brown* ~ Langdon
HB. Maynard ~ Reid ~ Howe
(Ramsay and Varcoe other support from Aish and even Adams can run through there as required)

* Keeffe or Marsh as the FB? for Brown? Frost is the reserve back up (in case of emergency break glass)
Further back up if injuries is Sinclair. Does Williams stay?

Interesting where and how we go.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare,
Just wondering how you rank the top 10 midfielders and top 5 rucks by value (considering injury, age etc) in the league. I think you did something similar awhile ago with the best __ player under the age of ___.

Cheers

For my player value rankings (based on who I would want for the span of their career from now I'd go with)
Rucks (as number one rucks):
Grundy (best young ruckman in the game)
Gawn (best ruckman in the game this year. if not for durability issues up until this year would be number one)
Goldstein (nearing 30 but still has plenty of good footy ahead of him and with production and durability has substantial value).
Naitanui (would be higher if not for the ACL)
Nicholls (just ahead of Scott Lycett - love his contested ball winning power and tackling at stoppages as per Nic Nat)
*I've left the likes of Lobb, P.Wright etc who are more forwards than rucks off this list intentionally to show who the better ruckmen are.

Mids: (still giving credit to those better midfielders and those midfielders who offer leadership but have also balanced those younger star midfielders in as best I can without spending too long on it)
Dangerfield
Bontempelli
P.Cripps
Fyfe
Pendlebury
J.Selwood
Hopper
Wines
Parker
Sloane

I think you overrate Williams Knight. His kicking and ball handling skills are terrible. They make for a terrible mix if you are also playing the likes of Brown and Marsh. We can't afford to carry that many poor ball users out of the back half. At least the other two bring effort. Williams no longer does that for us. Given Ramsay and Sinclair are already better players and Maynard is progressing quickly I can't agree with your opinion thst he our best all round defender. He hasn't been for a long time now and I no longer see a future for him at our club.

I think he could be, with Witts, an important part of trading back into the draft this year and securing a 1st rounder. 2nd rounders traded into the 1st. And giving us more opportunities next year to throw around some of our cap and attract a big name.

I saw effort from Williams on Sunday. He went harder at the ball than anyone else on several occasions, but seemed to struggle changing direction as easily as he has previously which seemed to have an impact on his play and perhaps make it look like he wasn't fully invested.

I'd like some context with Williams as to what is happening. I suggest he has been carrying injury while playing that has been holding him back from playing like he typically has.

With Williams my expectation going forward is that he replicate his 14/15 play.

The point about using Williams, Brown and Marsh down back in the same back half is a good point, and I agree only two of those at a time are suitable for AFL selection. Marsh at this stage I have outside my best 22, so it's not a major issue for me.

I'd definitely be looking still to retain Williams and if Ramsay and Maynard or someone else establish themselves down back and Williams is clearly outside the clubs best 22. I'd be exploring a move forward and through the midfield. Williams is a pit bull and has that ground ball winning and tackling, so up forward alongside our aerial specialists I see a role for him, perhaps as something like a Blair replacement. Similarly through the midfield he has the capacity to pinch-hit through there again with his ground ball winning power and then explosiveness and spread something that can see him match at least the output of a Greenwood.

Williams has the attributes, so unless he loses his speed/agility then I see no reason to move him on. He offers a lot of options, albeit hidden ones having not been seen at AFL level as a midfielder or forward as he was mostly as a junior.

I know there will likely be none agreeing with me. But Williams for me is someone I just wouldn't trade. Anything short of a top 10 pick and I believe it's a mistake. So being a part of a deal just to move up to the first round is a definite no from me.

Having a first round pick is more luxury than need. It's not a draft early on that will help us all that much with mostly inside mids or mids who can play other positions, with nothing in the key defence stocks and very little in key forward stocks. The outside options are also poor in the first round this year. We can do fine with our second round choice with this draft deep enough for us to find someone there with decent talent ID.

 

[Knightmare]

In relation to the delisted Kangaroos, the only one really standing out to me is Harvey. I reckon we should be right into him.

Not only does he add experience to a very inexperienced side, but he also fills a list need which is a small forward. Regardless of his age, he is also very durable and basically never misses a game. So I actually reckon he could give 2 years of quality service. Plus we can pick him up for nothing via the PSD!

However, I see no need for Petrie or Dal Santo. In relation to Dal Santo, I think Aish already plays in a similar style and I think we need to keep pumping games into him. In relation to Petrie, I think he is on par with Cloke, so don't see any real benefit from trading Cloke and picking up Petrie (unless of course we got a top 15 pick for Cloke in which case you wouldn't say no!).

Harvey is the must get. He would have been a top 3 in B+F player this year on Collingwood's list. Has not missed any games. Still has his pace and skill uses the ball as well as ever and makes the best decision in the game. It's a no brainer.

He has anywhere between 1-3 years of footy left in him. That's usable.

Agreed, we have a lot of back pockets (admittingly none who can really stay on the park), so I'd have no issue trading out Marley if it meant securing another 2nd round pick. I think we can package these picks to upgrade inside the top 20. Marley and Jarrod Witts present some trade currency, as does Oxley. I think if we play it smart, we can get a first round pick. If we can secure a first round pick, it gives us more freedom to trade next years pick if a gun like Tom Lynch became available.

It's a good draft for talls next year with probably five of my top 10 at this stage key forwards or ruck height.

The question what (on known players on our list) is our best 6 with say one or two others running through so to speak.
(Like a squad if you will, assuming the extra player or two is in the 22 ie bench or on wing etc)
My dilemma is on current list what we do with brown?

B. Scharenberg ~ Brown* ~ Langdon
HB. Maynard ~ Reid ~ Howe
(Ramsay and Varcoe other support from Aish and even Adams can run through there as required)

* Keeffe or Marsh as the FB? for Brown? Frost is the reserve back up (in case of emergency break glass)
Further back up if injuries is Sinclair. Does Williams stay?

Interesting where and how we go.

I've currently got a preferred group of (for round 1, 2017):
B: Matthew Scharenberg Nathan Brown Marley Williams
HB: Tom Langdon Ben Reid Jeremy Howe
With: Jackson Ramsay Brayden Maynard Jonathon Marsh and Jack Frost just outside that best six, though the backline rotation could easily be extended to at least seven which would move a Ramsay in.

Scharenberg and Marsh are playing off for a position as something like a 3rd tall defender. Or otherwise three of Howe/Langdon/Scharenberg/Marsh could be played together as intercepters.

Williams/Ramsay/Maynard/Sinclair/Goldsack there is room for two.

Then there is room for only two of Reid/Brown/Frost/Keeffe.

 

[left at home]

rather reid and brown than keeffe and frost. but l would keep keeffe as a back up than frost

 

[Saintly Viewed]

rather reid and brown than keeffe and frost. but l would keep keeffe as a back up than frost

This is the interesting big defender question.

Reid is the no brainer. If healthy he is close enough to elite. He is a gem.

Then it's a battle between, Brown, Keeffe, Frost.... Just feeling something has happened to Brown he's not quite as good as he's been. Maybe hes ok and will return to his better play. Maybe I'm being harsh.

 

[left at home]

This is the interesting big defender question.

Reid is the no brainer. If healthy he is close enough to elite. He is a gem.

Then it's a battle between, Brown, Keeffe, Frost.... Just feeling something has happened to Brown he's not quite as good as he's been. Maybe hes ok and will return to his better play. Maybe I'm being harsh.

l just see that brown is totally a best 22 and l don't with frost and keeffe. but as a back up even though keeffe has not played for 2 years
is better option, and even as a third tall.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

l just see that brown is totally a best 22 and l don't with frost and keeffe. but as a back up even though keeffe has not played for 2 years
is better option, and even as a third tall.

Nail on head, hit.
On re thinking, assuming healthy, Brown is our best FB.

 

[Prochard123]

Hey KM,
What are your thoughts on the O'meara rumour?
How much does he cost?
How do we afford him?
Is he worth the price we pay?
Where would he play, how does he fit in our list?

Cheers

 

[100volt1]

If many of you watch the Premier league you'll understand just how similar it is bringing Harvey to the Club.

It's very much similar to Manchester United signing Robin Van Persie from Rivals Arsenal who was their Captain at the time, Harvey being their 2015 Captain most recent I believe.

I remember Sir Alex Ferguson saying something like "He's old, but if he can win us the League then he's done his job for us".

Oddly similar and i can see it happening.

 

[Scodog10]

I've toyed with having Smith higher.

But he isn't higher because he is very outside (88 contested/ 273 uncontested possessions), lack of hurt factor and skill errors. His disposal efficiency is high as a result of his outside nature, lots of touches out wide and down back and his view to find mostly safe, short targets. But can find the footy and has a super work rate.

Smith is very capable at AFL level as a component who can play as required.

Lack of hurt factors and skill errors is a complaint that covers well over half of our list.

Smith is on the improve though and has had a good first season. His growth along with Wills over the next year will be very interesting.

As for White, I have fit him into the worthwhile depth category but I don't have him all that high on the list overall. Still an inconsistent forward with inadequate production and while he can have good games against poor opposition, he doesn't against good teams. For dual position forward/ruck types Cox and Moore is plenty.

Cloke while is numbers are very comparable to White's this season, I look at more as having a poor season which based on his statistical history I look at as something he can rebound from given his durability and his fathers longevity.

This is something that so many posters overlook re Smith and to a lesser extent Langdon when he was a permanent fixture of the best 22.

The problem is that over the past 5 or so years we've had a real dearth of "safe" players on our list so when one bobs up that can get it 20 odd times a game they gravitate toward them.

As often as not when Smith gets on the end of a possession chain on the outside because he always takes that easy option (and doesn't always execute anyway) it halts our ball movement. For a guy that goes at 4-1 uncontested ball he doesn't move the ball forward enough or get involved in anywhere near enough scores.

As an example Brad Hill has had a pretty average year, wins less of the ball and is almost 10% less efficient, but has still managed more score involvements and more metres gained by a street. If you're going to feed as much uncontested ball through a guy as we do Smith he needs to do more with it amd either become a linebreaker or start picking the eyes out of the hit up leads.

Yeah it was his first season in the system, but he's a mature ager so that area of his game needs to advance at a quicker rate given the relative weaknesses he currently has.

 

[DaVe86]

KM, thanks for your responses above.

Given your opinion that 5 of the top 10 from next years draft are talls, do you think then there is merit trading Cloke for a future first rounder. The likely destination would be Doggies.

It probably means the pick won't be until pick 15+ as many expect the Dogs to challenge next year. Still, it would give us 2 first rounders next year. Good position to either attack the draft for young KPP's or trade.

While we are all caught up on gun forwards, my bigger concern is key defenders. Reid and Brown are in their twilight, and I'm not sold on Keeffe or Frost.

If next year's draft is a KPP draft, I'd like to see us build our next spine with a key back and a key forward.

 

[SpongePie]

Knightmare
Hi mate, with all this talk about Jaeger O'Meara and maybe a link to us (though all rumour)... what do you think?
Is he worth the risk?
What do we pay for him salary wise?
What do we pay for him trade wise?
Do we even have the currency to get him?

 

[Schraderbrau]

GWS have said they don't want picks but established players for O'Meara which suits us down to the ground.

I see no problem with using one of Reid, Fasolo or Elliot to get things moving as well. O'Meara is a risk but he's the type of player that is worth it. A midfield of Pendlebury, O'Meara, Sidebottom, Treloar, DeGoey + others will blow the competition away. Additionally, a ruthless operator would be looking to move Reid on while his value is likely at its highest and knowing that his injury riddled body won't hold for much longer.

If Langdon is as highly rated internally as some say then he could be used as well.

 

[Prochard123]

GWS have said they don't want picks but established players for O'Meara which suits us down to the ground.

I see no problem with using one of Reid, Fasolo or Elliot to get things moving as well. O'Meara is a risk but he's the type of player that is worth it. A midfield of Pendlebury, O'Meara, Sidebottom, Treloar, DeGoey + others will blow the competition away. Additionally, a ruthless operator would be looking to move Reid on while his value is likely at its highest and knowing that his injury riddled body won't hold for much longer.

If Langdon is as highly rated internally as some say then he could be used as well.

No way do we give up any of Reid, Fasolo or Elliot. They all offer extra dimensions to our team structure which O'meara doesn't offer. We already lack quality Key position players and effective halfforwards/small forwards, and you want to give up the only competent players in this role we have left?

 

[Quicky]

GWS have said they don't want picks but established players for O'Meara which suits us down to the ground.

I see no problem with using one of Reid, Fasolo or Elliot to get things moving as well. O'Meara is a risk but he's the type of player that is worth it. A midfield of Pendlebury, O'Meara, Sidebottom, Treloar, DeGoey + others will blow the competition away. Additionally, a ruthless operator would be looking to move Reid on while his value is likely at its highest and knowing that his injury riddled body won't hold for much longer.

If Langdon is as highly rated internally as some say then he could be used as well.

Reid is the backbone of our team. I think he is 100% untouchable. Our entire defensive group would be in all sorts without Reid. And to trade him for a player that can't get on the field is enormously risky. Far too risky.

 

[Soups]

Hmmmm lets trade Reid, we really have entered silly season. Damn these no finals.

 

[Schraderbrau]

No way do we give up any of Reid, Fasolo or Elliot. They all offer extra dimensions to our team structure which O'meara doesn't offer. We already lack quality Key position players and effective halfforwards/small forwards, and you want to give up the only competent players in this role we have left?

Fasolo and Elliot are above average players and by no means stars. They are also very similar players to each other. I'm all for giving up an above average player to help us get a player who might be in the top 10 in the AFL. His injury is a risk but sometimes you've got to take them imo.

 

[Schraderbrau]

Reid is the backbone of our team. I think he is 100% untouchable. Our entire defensive group would be in all sorts without Reid. And to trade him for a player that can't get on the field is enormously risky. Far too risky.

Yeah a lot of it comes down to how much faith we have in his body and how much we want O'Meara. In a vacuum then I agree he is 100% untouchable but I've got not much faith in his body and now that he is entering his late 20's this is probably the last opportunity we get to take advantage of his trade value. O'Meara has got ridiculous talent imo and the reward is pretty high if we can fix him.

Obviously if we could get the job done with some combo of Elliot, Fasolo, Brown or some other b-grader I'd do that but it seems unlikely.

 

[PIEWITHSAUCE]

Elliott and Fasolo B-graders? I can't see too many agreeing there unless you're deeming their bodies to be past it.

The best way to piss off almost the entire junior supporter base would be to trade Elliott . I know it may not be a priority in the cold light of day but I don't think I have seen a player more universally adored by the kids.

 

[Knightmare]

rather reid and brown than keeffe and frost. but l would keep keeffe as a back up than frost

Reid is the premier key defender as others have mentioned. Even carrying injury this year he been exceptional and one of our best for the season. Brown is that next best.

Frost is adequate but an outside best 22 player for me and not someone I'd pair with Brown if it can be helped.

Frost I rate ahead of Keeffe, given Keeffe has sat out for two years. Keeffe is a wildcard. Who knows what he can do? He has height. Reads the flight well. Skills are fairly good. But those two years out of the game. I'm not at all confident in him, and view him more as a bonus than anything.

Hey KM,
What are your thoughts on the O'meara rumour?
How much does he cost?
How do we afford him?
Is he worth the price we pay?
Where would he play, how does he fit in our list?

Cheers

O'Meara I'm not super keen on. Before he did his knees, I would have said bring him on!

But two ACL's. Has degenerative patella tendons in both knees and battling bad knee tendinitis since the start 2014.

I don't want Collingwood investing in that.

He'd be a clear best 22 player and slot straight into the clubs midfield and also rotate forward and offer some scoreboard impact. He has explosiveness, ball winning ability and good skills. But I'm just not confident enough given our poor history with injury prevention and inability to keep our players healthy or productive long term that he would be a wise player to make a move for.

O'Meara is worth a first round selection and a pick around 10. I'd just let another club spend up. The talk at the moment is he is likely to go to Essendon (either via trade or the preseason draft), so that will be interesting to watch.

Knightmare
Hi mate, with all this talk about Jaeger O'Meara and maybe a link to us (though all rumour)... what do you think?
Is he worth the risk?
What do we pay for him salary wise?
What do we pay for him trade wise?
Do we even have the currency to get him?

As above. Not all that interested and for the above reasons don't believe he is worth the risk - with the risk too great for the price that would be paid in picks/players and probably also salary cap hit relative to what he likely will offer.

Gold Coast wanting to improve will most likely want a player who projects to become one of their best, or otherwise an exceptional pick or two to get him. Jordan De Goey or Sidebottom would be roughly what Gold Coast would be asking for with their greatest need being for a quality midfielder.

Overall I see any deal for O'Meara a losing one with the pieces given up to exceed the return O'Meara will offer. I'd pass.

KM, thanks for your responses above.

Given your opinion that 5 of the top 10 from next years draft are talls, do you think then there is merit trading Cloke for a future first rounder. The likely destination would be Doggies.

It probably means the pick won't be until pick 15+ as many expect the Dogs to challenge next year. Still, it would give us 2 first rounders next year. Good position to either attack the draft for young KPP's or trade.

While we are all caught up on gun forwards, my bigger concern is key defenders. Reid and Brown are in their twilight, and I'm not sold on Keeffe or Frost.

If next year's draft is a KPP draft, I'd like to see us build our next spine with a key back and a key forward.

Sounds like Cloke as good as gone now that he has officially requested a trade.

Given this the best trade move would be to move him for a 2017 first round choice. The Dogs will likely continue rising up the ladder next season given their strong nucleus and horror run with injury this season, and probably finish top 4 which may still be good enough to land one of next years good forwards. Thomas Boyd would be even better and is someone I'd enquire about in some kind of deal involving Cloke, though I fully expect them to retain Boyd.

The talk at the moment is a deal of Cloke will be some variation on Cloke for Jong. Not rating Jong as more than depth, it's not a deal I'm interested in.

I agree with you about the draft strategy for next year. It appears early days like an unusually good draft for key position players, so forward and back we need to go shopping with Moore the only young key position player on our list who is a long term piece.

GWS have said they don't want picks but established players for O'Meara which suits us down to the ground.

I see no problem with using one of Reid, Fasolo or Elliot to get things moving as well. O'Meara is a risk but he's the type of player that is worth it. A midfield of Pendlebury, O'Meara, Sidebottom, Treloar, DeGoey + others will blow the competition away. Additionally, a ruthless operator would be looking to move Reid on while his value is likely at its highest and knowing that his injury riddled body won't hold for much longer.

If Langdon is as highly rated internally as some say then he could be used as well.

Elliott is the more interesting name of those, with his injury issues almost as concerning as O'Meara's in some respects. And Elliott comes with a profile arguably disproportionate with what he has achieved on the field.

Reid also with his constant injuries also interesting, though you'd completely be conceding any winning chances in the immediate future which I'm not a fan of, with the effect deflating on a playing group.

Gold Coast would probably ask for Elliott or Reid AND a good midfielders - Crisp or Greenwood would be about Collingwood's best case scenarios from a currency given up perspective.

If I'm playing a stockmarket style fantasy trading game, Elliott and Reid would be two I'd be favouring moving under the same logic you're considering here.

Again though, I'd pass on those deals for O'Meara, with my confidence in O'Meara lacking.

I'd rather Brent Harvey on a two year deal to O'Meara. Harvey with his skills, decision making, speed, leadership, work ethic and example, durability and everything he can teach the high performance and medical contractors about keeping guys improving, productive and durable long term.