Draft Watcher Davo-27's 2019 Draft Watch

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i added Tyrone Thorne to the list as well, i wouldve had K. Pickett there as well but it seems clubs are considering him for a first round pick or thereabouts as he got an invite to the draft.
No doubt you would have had Mally Rosas in that group before the Gold Coast draft concessions.
 
Kysaiah Pickett has an invite to the draft i think i read somewhere so a club might have him as a first round pick which i can see the reasoning, but im not 100% in aggreeement with, but as i said in another thread he is very similar to his uncle Byron Pickett in that he is quick on the burst, very strong build and can hurt opponents with a bump and has good goal sense, the slight differences are height/a little fumbly and lack of aggression that Byron had, but very similar type of player.
To be fair almost no one has aggression like Byron.
 

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i was doing more thinking on the top 2 rounds or so and even though it may differ to what clubs do, i made 3 rankings for the top 37 or so players that i personally like the most and think will likely have good AFL careers, for me the top 14 has not changed in a long time, i still rate the top 14 as clearly the best talent, i had put a top 20 previously based on my reads and what clubs were saying they were doing, but this list is just based on what i would do completely excluding what clubs would do, except for Pickett who seems likely to go higher than i had predicted.

group of 14: Rowell, Anderson, Kemp, Serong, Flanders, Green, Robertson, D.Stephens, Jackson, Ash, Henry, Young, Gould, McAsey

the next group are players that have been super impressive this year at some stage/last year and have had moments where they have fallen off a little, but they are supremely gifted players who imo are the best options outside the top 14

next group of 11: Rivers, C.Stephens, Pickett, Taheny, Sharp, Bianco, D.Williams, Worrell, Ruscoe, Schoenberg, Shute

the 3rd group are players that have had moments but are a little inconsistent, these players could be really good, but are riskier picks than the first 2 groups imo, as they are less likely to be stars at AFL level, but still have the potential to be really good players and are players i have liked for the majority of the season or games i have seen them in or have been injured and i liked them a lot last year.

group of 12: Maginness, Bergman, Weightman, Perez, Day, Georgiades, Mahony, Rantall, B.Smith, Mead, Taylor, Comben

others who could go in the first 2 rounds that i like a little less than the 3 groups i have listed are: O'Neill, Finlay, Hilder, De Koning, Pasini, Cahill, Garcia, Chirgwin, Dow, Byrnes
 
i was doing more thinking on the top 2 rounds or so and even though it may differ to what clubs do, i made 3 rankings for the top 37 or so players that i personally like the most and think will likely have good AFL careers, for me the top 14 has not changed in a long time, i still rate the top 14 as clearly the best talent, i had put a top 20 previously based on my reads and what clubs were saying they were doing, but this list is just based on what i would do completely excluding what clubs would do, except for Pickett who seems likely to go higher than i had predicted.

group of 14: Rowell, Anderson, Kemp, Serong, Flanders, Green, Robertson, D.Stephens, Jackson, Ash, Henry, Young, Gould, McAsey

the next group are players that have been super impressive this year at some stage/last year and have had moments where they have fallen off a little, but they are supremely gifted players who imo are the best options outside the top 14

next group of 11: Rivers, C.Stephens, Pickett, Taheny, Sharp, Bianco, D.Williams, Worrell, Ruscoe, Schoenberg, Shute

the 3rd group are players that have had moments but are a little inconsistent, these players could be really good, but are riskier picks than the first 2 groups imo, as they are less likely to be stars at AFL level, but still have the potential to be really good players and are players i have liked for the majority of the season or games i have seen them in or have been injured and i liked them a lot last year.

group of 12: Maginness, Bergman, Weightman, Perez, Day, Georgiades, Mahony, Rantall, B.Smith, Mead, Taylor, Comben

others who could go in the first 2 rounds that i like a little less than the 3 groups i have listed are: O'Neill, Finlay, Hilder, De Koning, Pasini, Cahill, Garcia, Chirgwin, Dow, Byrnes
Ralphsmith , Philip ?
 
Ralphsmith , Philip ?

Ralphsmith has been horrible all year, even got dropped from a struggling VM team because of his poor performances, the only thing that he did that was memorable was kick a goal from the boundary 35m out in the VM V VC game and a couple of games 1 for Sandy and 1 for his school footy team where he kicked a few goals, thats his highlights for the year, he has natural athleticism but cant find the football, an example is averaging 11 possessions on a wing for VM and averages 15.9 poss a game on a wing for Sandy, you think thats good enough for a top 40 pick? think of the talented players from other AFL clubs you could get for that value...

Philp is a weird one, when you watch him play footy, he is terrible... BUT he has great speed, he has great endurance, he has an ability to accumulate, he can win clearances, idk what to do with a player like this, he has the ability to carve out an AFL career with his hard work, but his football is sloppy and chaotic, im not sure how to rate him tbh.

P.S. Philp only averages 22.8 poss a game so not even great accumulator numbers, i thought he had higher numbers, so even that isnt at a high level...
 
Davo-27 I'm after a bit of help for a privately run fantasy comp. We have a competition between 10 mates that has been running for 20 plus years. It is a keepers league, so we manage our teams similar to AFL Teams I guess. Scoring is similar to AFL Fantasy with the best scorers beings Rucks, then Mids, and now rebounding defenders.

For next years crop the top 3 selected will be Rowell, Green and Anderson I suspect, but in terms of who will be the better ball winners/fantasy point scorers, in what order would you draft the next group? I don't usually draft small fwds, or KPP unless they come with Buddy like hype.

Hayden Young
Caleb Serong
Lachie Ash
Sam Flanders
Brodie Kemp
Luke Jackson
Dylan Stephens
Fischer McAsey
Liam Henry
Deven Robertson
Will Day
Josh Worrell
Trent Rivers
Finn Maginess
Miles Bergman
Cody Weightman
Dylan Williams
Will Gould
Trent Bianco
Elijah Taylor
Cooper Stephens
Cameron Taheny

Any in this group you would avoid, and any outside this group that you would grab instead?
 
Ralphsmith has been horrible all year, even got dropped from a struggling VM team because of his poor performances, the only thing that he did that was memorable was kick a goal from the boundary 35m out in the VM V VC game and a couple of games 1 for Sandy and 1 for his school footy team where he kicked a few goals, thats his highlights for the year, he has natural athleticism but cant find the football, an example is averaging 11 possessions on a wing for VM and averages 15.9 poss a game on a wing for Sandy, you think thats good enough for a top 40 pick? think of the talented players from other AFL clubs you could get for that value...

Philp is a weird one, when you watch him play footy, he is terrible... BUT he has great speed, he has great endurance, he has an ability to accumulate, he can win clearances, idk what to do with a player like this, he has the ability to carve out an AFL career with his hard work, but his football is sloppy and chaotic, im not sure how to rate him tbh.

P.S. Philp only averages 22.8 poss a game so not even great accumulator numbers, i thought he had higher numbers, so even that isnt at a high level...
Going to ignore Ralphsmith’s 19 disposal and 3 goal game in a final? It’s hard to deny he has the ability to be a match winner and he has the athletic traits to boot.

The flanker/winger types at the level usually struggle to win a lot of the ball consistently so I feel especially if they are still underdeveloped you need to take into account how much they can improve in an AFL system and what club can utilise their strengths.
 

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Davo-27 I'm after a bit of help for a privately run fantasy comp. We have a competition between 10 mates that has been running for 20 plus years. It is a keepers league, so we manage our teams similar to AFL Teams I guess. Scoring is similar to AFL Fantasy with the best scorers beings Rucks, then Mids, and now rebounding defenders.

For next years crop the top 3 selected will be Rowell, Green and Anderson I suspect, but in terms of who will be the better ball winners/fantasy point scorers, in what order would you draft the next group? I don't usually draft small fwds, or KPP unless they come with Buddy like hype.

Hayden Young
Caleb Serong
Lachie Ash
Sam Flanders
Brodie Kemp
Luke Jackson
Dylan Stephens
Fischer McAsey
Liam Henry
Deven Robertson
Will Day
Josh Worrell
Trent Rivers
Finn Maginess
Miles Bergman
Cody Weightman
Dylan Williams
Will Gould
Trent Bianco
Elijah Taylor
Cooper Stephens
Cameron Taheny

Any in this group you would avoid, and any outside this group that you would grab instead?

when it comes to fantasy points, a lot of it comes from who will get the most opportunities and welcomed into the first 22 the earliest, that comes from the club they get recruited too and the belief that club has in the kids they recruit moreso than the talent, for example Rankine was arguably the best player in last years draft and he has had injuries and is yet to debut, so i cant predict that for you sorry.
 
Going to ignore Ralphsmith’s 19 disposal and 3 goal game in a final? It’s hard to deny he has the ability to be a match winner and he has the athletic traits to boot.

The flanker/winger types at the level usually struggle to win a lot of the ball consistently so I feel especially if they are still underdeveloped you need to take into account how much they can improve in an AFL system and what club can utilise their strengths.

im not a believer in a player improving dramatically, i believe most players improvement comes from feeling comfortable at the next level and feeling like they belong which then allows them to show off their full potential, so i come from it at a different angle.

so i believe that how they perform at junior level is what they are likely to replicate if things go right for them at senior level, thats my belief, over them dramatically improving which ive only ever seen from 1 player in my time watching AFL and that was Daniel Chick who put on 10 kilos of muscle 1 pre-season at the hawks a couple decades ago and was a better player for it, most who put on weight dont improve that much or at all and some get injury issues from the added weight.
 
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when it comes to fantasy points, a lot of it comes from who will get the most opportunities and welcomed into the first 22 the earliest, that comes from the club they get recruited too and the belief that club has in the kids they recruit moreso than the talent, for example Rankine was arguably the best player in last years draft and he has had injuries and is yet to debut, so i cant predict that for you sorry.

Yeah, good point and my order will certainly change once the draft is done and I know where these players land. We also have to have at least one player from each club on our list, so that can also influence if tossing up between two players.
 
im not a believer in a player improving dramatically, i believe most players improvement comes from feeling comfortable at the next level and feeling like they belong which then allows them to show off their full potential, so i come from it at a different angle.

so i believe that how they perform at junior level is what they are likely to replicate if things go right for them at senior level, thats my belief, over them dramatically improving which ive only ever seen from 1 player in my time watching AFL and that was Daniel Chick who put on 10 kilos of muscle 1 pre-season at the hawks a couple decades ago and was a better player for it, most who put on weight dont improve that much or at all and some get injury issues from the added weight.
Yeah fair enough I’m a bit different, a few things do turn me off certain players but i still try to focus on each players strengths and how they could suit modern football or certain teams. One teams trash will be another’s treasure and i can see clubs having extremely different rankings.
 
Yeah fair enough I’m a bit different, a few things do turn me off certain players but i still try to focus on each players strengths and how they could suit modern football or certain teams. One teams trash will be another’s treasure and i can see clubs having extremely different rankings.
What things turn you off players eDPS ?
 
What things turn you off players eDPS ?
Lack of speed is a main one because it really limits the areas you can play and if you are slow you need a lot to go right

Im also not a huge fan of half backs who don’t defend even though there are some cases of AFL players filling those roles I don’t particularly think it’s a hard role to play.
 
The Bigfooty Phantom Drafts gives me an idea of what others think of various players, theres 4 players likely to go late in the draft/rookie that i wanted to write about and what i think of each player as they dont feature in this years Phantom Draft or in many conversations prior to the draft which i find interesting.

the first player i wanted to write about, a player who won me over during the season was Jesse Clark from the Geelong Falcons, at the begging of the year he was made co-captain with Cooper Stephens and i knew very little about him, then i saw he played as a medium defender and took the kick outs, at Geelong i wasnt overly impressed and didnt take much note, then he got selected to play for VC and i have to say it was his VC performances that won me over, because instead of being the kick out guy that chipped sideways, he became the medium defender beating guys 1 on 1 and feeding mids down the line, i found that after the championships i had a different view on him and realised he could play good footy, but then he went back to Geelong where he became the kick out guy again in a bottom of the table team, he is 188cm 80kg medium defender/mid, played well at the champs which i made a mental note of.

the second player that i find an interesting late prospect is Adam Carafa from the Northern Knights, i first noticed him as the in and under mid for the Knights, then i saw him at the VM Trial game Vs the Allies and he was a standout there which earned him a place in the VM squad, he played 2 games for VM and then went back to the Knights dominating their midfield to charge up the ladder and into the finals, he is a true in and under inside mid, he puts in the hard yards to feed the running mids and i've always liked his efforts and when he gets space is a good kick and generally a smart operator, i think he is very under-rated, at 184cm 72kg he is a good size and has scope to get stronger

the third player i wanted to write about was Mitch Mellis from Eastern Ranges, loved his efforts last season and this season was big for him, leading his team to a grand final, he has a couple of other team mates that i also like in Stapleton and Pretty that rarely get talked about either, Mellis has been amazing for Eastern averaging 25 disposals as a forward!!!! who occasionally played in the mid, most games i saw him play was as a forward so to average those numbers is insane, he got 2 games for VM in the middle of their campaign and didnt have the best games or opportunities as a late call up, playing wing/mid for VM, but his mostly forward role for Eastern was a huge reason they nearly won it all, at 173cm 72kg he is ready to go next season, i wish he had had a good run at the champs so i could have a better understanding if he can lift to the next level, but from his 2 seasons at Eastern i have seen enough to believe he could be a value late pick

the fourth player that i find of interest was a player i highlighted earlier in the year and who was impressive on the half back line Jackson Davies from the Northern Knights, didnt get a run for VM, but his form for the Knights has been strong all year and people started to notice late when he intercept marked for fun it seemed, captained the Knights and was a leader on the field through consistent effort and performance, a raw kid with a heap of skill, especially in the air, but also when it hits the ground and his rebound disposal can be damaging as well, at 189cm 77kg he is a good size and good value late
 
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im not a believer in a player improving dramatically, i believe most players improvement comes from feeling comfortable at the next level and feeling like they belong which then allows them to show off their full potential, so i come from it at a different angle.

so i believe that how they perform at junior level is what they are likely to replicate if things go right for them at senior level, thats my belief, over them dramatically improving which ive only ever seen from 1 player in my time watching AFL and that was Daniel Chick who put on 10 kilos of muscle 1 pre-season at the hawks a couple decades ago and was a better player for it, most who put on weight dont improve that much or at all and some get injury issues from the added weight.

I'm in full agreement with your assessments on Ralphsmith…..Do not want & can't understand the hype.
 
im not a believer in a player improving dramatically, i believe most players improvement comes from feeling comfortable at the next level and feeling like they belong which then allows them to show off their full potential, so i come from it at a different angle.

so i believe that how they perform at junior level is what they are likely to replicate if things go right for them at senior level, thats my belief, over them dramatically improving which ive only ever seen from 1 player in my time watching AFL and that was Daniel Chick who put on 10 kilos of muscle 1 pre-season at the hawks a couple decades ago and was a better player for it, most who put on weight dont improve that much or at all and some get injury issues from the added weight.
Agree 100%. With a few exceptions. The one that's stands out is fyfe
 
there seems to be 2 hidden prospects in this years draft that very few are talking about and they are:

Jye Clark - brother of Jordan Clark at Geelong and an elite talent in last years draft, i have seen very little of him, only a small sample of highlights of him in a game, he doesnt seem to have his brothers talent and build, but i know little of him so he could be a surprise selection at the rookie draft because of his brothers success at Geelong this year.

Trent Burgoyne - Father-Son Prospect for Port, son of the great Peter Burgoyne, i saw him play about a half of football this year in a SA v WA Trial game and i thought he looked ok, didnt get a lot of disposals, but looked decent when he went near the ball, i dont remember a lot from him, has been injured for most of the year i believe so very unknown for a son of a champion.

just 2 players that i was curious about and almost seem hidden away.
 
there seems to be 2 hidden prospects in this years draft that very few are talking about and they are:

Jye Clark - brother of Jordan Clark at Geelong and an elite talent in last years draft, i have seen very little of him, only a small sample of highlights of him in a game, he doesnt seem to have his brothers talent and build, but i know little of him so he could be a surprise selection at the rookie draft because of his brothers success at Geelong this year.

Trent Burgoyne - Father-Son Prospect for Port, son of the great Peter Burgoyne, i saw him play about a half of football this year in a SA v WA Trial game and i thought he looked ok, didnt get a lot of disposals, but looked decent when he went near the ball, i dont remember a lot from him, has been injured for most of the year i believe so very unknown for a son of a champion.

just 2 players that i was curious about and almost seem hidden away.
Kobe Tozer.
 
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