List Mgmt. FA & trade wash up, what list spots & draft picks do we have?

[TradeDraft]

Hoskin-Elliott - Hard to get a value on WHE. Didn't play this year, but was a high draft pick playing in a deep team and had a year to run on his contract. For future recruiting endeavours, I would rather get this done rather than be in Adelaide's position with Gibbs. Surely players would think twice about a club who would get a player to commit but then not get them across the line.

WHE did not Commit to us(Pubicly Anyway) as Gibbs Did.

His Manager came and Said He like to Play For Collingwood IF a Trade can Be Done. Which it did.

But you never Saw a Article from GWS saying WHE had Requested a Trade.

Seems to me that WHE was happy to stay at GWS IF a Trade did not Happen

 

[Go Woods]

Will we look at any Delisted FA's 'Grimes'?? Or take someone like Xavier Richards in the preseason Draft? We have 6 spots potentially to still fill on our list. We will Draft 2 + FS Daics & Brown, leaves 2 spots.....or we elevate Cox & Keeffe onto senior list????
Thoughts?

 

[DAWESOME!!]

So you are regretting getting Treloar?

No. But have a better understanding of the price we paid and would only do it again for a player of his ability of better.

 

[Babylove]

WHE did not Commit to us(Pubicly Anyway) as Gibbs Did.

His Manager came and Said He like to Play For Collingwood IF a Trade can Be Done. Which it did.

But you never Saw a Article from GWS saying WHE had Requested a Trade.

Seems to me that WHE was happy to stay at GWS IF a Trade did not Happen

That's true but I still think it's good practice that if we entice a player to come to us whether it is a hard commitment like Gibbs or an if a trade can be done type situation that the club then commits to making it happen. What we gave up was a little high, but there are future benefits as far as players being able to trust us that we will follow through if they make a commitment.

 

[Men of Steele]

Will we look at any Delisted FA's 'Grimes'?? Or take someone like Xavier Richards in the preseason Draft? We have 6 spots potentially to still fill on our list. We will Draft 2 + FS Daics & Brown, leaves 2 spots.....or we elevate Cox & Keeffe onto senior list????
Thoughts?

If Richards is a DFA, , we should grab him

 

[10571z]

People sometimes overlook the fact you need to give up something good to get something good. We really didn't give up anything good and got hopefully some best 22 players. Yeah nothing to exciting but we didn't lose a Sidebottom or Adams

 

[MyManLynch]

Will we look at any Delisted FA's 'Grimes'?? Or take someone like Xavier Richards in the preseason Draft? We have 6 spots potentially to still fill on our list. We will Draft 2 + FS Daics & Brown, leaves 2 spots.....or we elevate Cox & Keeffe onto senior list????
Thoughts?

I think we must elevate Keeffe during the draft, our stock of KPB is at an all time low.
We have to assume he will be in the selection mix from round 1.
So up he goes.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

My understanding is that the club stood by him and did all they could to keep him out jail. He showed his appreciation by being an A grade dickbag off the field and a liability on it.

.....and having a punch on with Adams didn't help him either

 

[MyManLynch]

A lot of people have seen him out and about in fine form. Lives with Dustin Martin and wants to holiday with Swan. Rumoured to be buddies with Jake King. Mysteriously MIA just before the season started. Rumoured punch up with Taylor Adams following the illicit drug saga.

All the hallmarks of someone out of form, desperately trying to get their life together after narrowly avoiding prison.

Probably should have allowed him to 'do his time' back in W.A.
The club kept him out of prison.
Doesn't appeared to have learnt any life lessons.
Better off without him.

 

[Crazy Tails]

People sometimes overlook the fact you need to give up something good to get something good. We really didn't give up anything good and got hopefully some best 22 players. Yeah nothing to exciting but we didn't lose a Sidebottom or Adams

Couldn't agree more with this. We landed some beauties in last years trade period (and everyone was in raptures) but the trades cost us a lot in draft picks.

We got pick 5 in a few seasons back on the back of a contracted B&F winner wanting to leave. We got Treloar & Aish in last year but it cost us the best part of 2 x 1st round picks & 2 x 2nd rounders respectively.

This year we had a really poor hand at the trade and draft pick table. What we did do was shed some fringe types (most with suspect foot skills) and as a result we gained an additional 300 points for this years draft; which will hopefully get us our 2 x F/Sons.

We also topped up and tried to fill a few list needs via FA which was a free hit (apart from the contracts) and Dunn via a cheap trade. WHE cost us a bit but think he could be worth the investment. We also improved our position in the 3rd and 4th round in next years draft with the Brisbane/Frost exchange.

Hopefully we have enough trade currency and cap space to attack the 2017 post season with a bit more vigour.




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[Saintly Viewed]

Probably should have allowed him to 'do his time' back in W.A.
The club kept him out of prison.
Doesn't appeared to have learnt any life lessons.
Better off without him.

And a poor kick

 

[76woodenspooners]

So I've done a more analytical study of our off season to date.

A bit of work has gone into that, shame to have it buried on page 9 - added to OP ( FYI barrackers ... feel free to edit / change / update it if you like, it's your OP)

 

[Baltimore Jack]

First List Lodgement - 31st October

 

[76woodenspooners]

View attachment 303401

Depth chart of our current list.
Left Marsh out.

Added depth chart to OP (FYI barrackers )

 

[76woodenspooners]

The trades from an accountant's perspective

Travis Cloke - Like most was disappointed with pick 76, however let's look at the market. Sam Mitchell aged 34, best and fairest for Hawthorn 2016 got pick 88 (essentially). Jordan Lewis aged 29, best and fairest for Hawthorn 2016 got a pick in the sixties. Travis Cloke has was dropped 3 times, played 13 games, with scratchy form, and his form was only marginally better in 2015. He is the same age as Lewis, so based on the market this 76 is probably about right.

I think this trade is a bit of an outlier because he was a contracted player, but no longer a required player, was on large $$$ that we wanted off our books, and had been a long serving highly respected player so we were happy to let him get to his chosen destination. The market forces of supply and demand around all those factors mean that we don't get much for him (ditto Lewis, Mitchell)

Witts and Frost - I put these two together as I felt the compensation they received was about fair given they were essentially depth & VFL players for us this year.

IMO Witts is worthy of extra discussion. It was public knowledge that the club wanted to trade him this the last year, but Witts was contracted and refused to go. He was also our starting ruckman round 1 ... What might have been if he didn't split his hand webbing in that fateful round 1 Swans game? Grundy came good and we struggled to play with two ruckman. Can't help but lament that Witts was a much better ruckman than Cameron Wood, and we paid pick 14 for Cameron Wood Plenty of other examples around about how young AFL standard ruckman (of which Witts is) usually command a much better price.

 

[barrackers]

A bit of work has gone into that, shame to have it buried on page 9 - added to OP ( FYI barrackers ... feel free to edit / change / update it if you like, it's your OP)

Added depth chart to OP (FYI barrackers )

Great idea 76, a terrific summary and both great resources, which would otherwise get lost amongst the discussion.

 

[well left]

I still think our list is unbalanced and we have some decisions still to make which might happen with delistings. If someone gets delisted that we like and fills a need in KPB or ruck I think we will move for them which forces our hand with our list.

The options are:

Let Blair walk - something that I would do but suspect we won't;
Move Oxley and/or Sier to the rookie list - I'd do this with Sier anyway but depending on what happens Oxley could drop back also;
Take the list to 39 - I think we will go 38 & 6 with two rookie spots for Keeffe & Cox but if we pick up a delisted KPB then we could go to 39 and leave Keeffe as a rookie.

This is also dependent on what happens with Marsh. I have left him on our list at this stage in the hope he can come back. You could also effectively swap him and Keeffe if Marsh says he needs time but will come back.

Dropping Sier and Oxley to the list leaves us with 33 spots by my take (with Marsh). That's five spots and I think we may only take the 4 picks so room for a DFA if there is one we like.

 

[barrackers]

So I've done a more analytical study of our off season to date.

Age Profile
A big talking point was the age of our recruits, so I thought I'd do an age profile analysis (including rookies). For the purposes of this exercise I have excluded Macaffer, Toovey, Swan, Goodyear, Golds and Wyatt as they had departed the club prior to trade week, and have included Marsh and Gault as they have not officially left the club. Also all ages are based on a players age as at 1st March 2017.

Prior to the trade period we had:
13 players 22 & Under
15 players 23 to 25
7 players 26 to 28
4 players over 28

Our average age was 24.175
Our average games played was 69.325

Total of 39 senior and rookie listed players (35 senior and 4 rookies (including Gault as rookie))

After the trade period we have:
13 players 22 & Under
12 players 23 to 25
7 players 26 to 28
5 players over 28

Our average age was 24.333
Our average games played was 73.513

Total of 37 senior and rookie listed players (33 senior and 4 rookies (including Gault as rookie))

Draft Pick Analysis
Given that points is a talking point for us given our two father son selections so I have utilised this to value our draft picks.

Prior to the trade period (including movements for compensations) we had:
26, 44, 62, 80, 98, 116 totalling 1214 points

After the trade period (including movements for compensations) we have:
28, 44, 51, 62, 65, 83, 101, 105, 119 totalling 1511 points

The trades from an accountant's perspective

Travis Cloke - Like most was disappointed with pick 76, however let's look at the market. Sam Mitchell aged 34, best and fairest for Hawthorn 2016 got pick 88 (essentially). Jordan Lewis aged 29, best and fairest for Hawthorn 2016 got a pick in the sixties. Travis Cloke has was dropped 3 times, played 13 games, with scratchy form, and his form was only marginally better in 2015. He is the same age as Lewis, so based on the market this 76 is probably about right.

Marley Williams - Again the pick we got back was terribly disappointing. But we made no secret of the fact that he was unlikely to receive a contract if he didn't get traded. That put his value at about 0 given that clubs could wait until DFA if necessary. Unsure what happened here, but Williams lost the faith of the coaches and list managers in 2016, was that due to on field or off field issues?

Witts and Frost - I put these two together as I felt the compensation they received was about fair given they were essentially depth & VFL players for us this year.

Wells & Mayne - The length of contract is what was contentious for these two (note I will not analyse salary figures as the figures being bandied about are guesses, not definite). However the trend this year was that players were moving or staying for longer contracts rather money as the deciding factor. Lewis said yes to Melbourne because they offered him a 3rd year, which he openly stated. Frost went to Brisbane because they were willing to offer 3 years. And for us Wells and Mayne were attracted to us as due to the 3 and 4 years we were prepared to offer.

Hoskin-Elliott - Hard to get a value on WHE. Didn't play this year, but was a high draft pick playing in a deep team and had a year to run on his contract. For future recruiting endeavours, I would rather get this done rather than be in Adelaide's position with Gibbs. Surely players would think twice about a club who would get a player to commit but then not get them across the line.

Where our list currently sits
Senior Outs (confirmed only): Swan, Macaffer, Toovey, Goodyear, Brown, Cloke, Williams, Witts Frost
Rookie Outs: Golds, Wyatt

Senior Ins (confirmed only): Wells, Mayne, Hoskin-Elliott, Dunn
Rookie Ins: Nil

Senior List: 35
Rookie List: 3 (A), 1 (B)

Key Dates
DFA 1 - 1st November to 8th November
DFA 2 - 10th November to 18th November
DFA 3 - 26 November to 27th November
National Draft - 25th November
Pre-Season & Rookie Draft - 28th November
Training commences 1-4 year players - 7th November
Training commences 5+ year players - 21st November

Final Thoughts
Our big man depth has taken a hit, though to be honest the defence and ruck concerns me more than the forwards. Other teams have shown that versatile forward lines can be effective, and we do have the talent if we can get them on the park. The defensive requirements are a little dependent on the opposition though, so being light on down here is a concern, and we have no number 1 reserver so if Grundy goes down, we are reliant on part timers. It's possible the KPD could be solved through the DFA at least in the short term as there are a few there, but the rucks may have to wait for the rookie draft.

For me the biggest concern is that for the fifth year in a row we have had a significant turnover of the list. Albeit they were mostly fringe players, or players on their way to being so, but our list isn't being given time to settle. I have thought going into last offseason and this one that we need to settle and have some quieter off-season to let the list have time to gel. My sincerest hope for next year, is that we target one or two players who fill a need if there is quality available, but otherwise have a quiet one. However it is good to know that we go into the next draft with a 1st round draft selection which means if things do go pear shaped at least we can hit the draft next year.

Terrific assessment and summary. When you look at your age breakdown the structure of our list hasn't changed much and most clubs would lose a couple of older players every year. Even including our retirees/delistings prior to the trade period we've only lost:

1x U22 (Goodyear)
4x 23-25 (LOST: Golds, Williams, Witts, Frost, Wyatt GAIN: Hoskin-Elliott)

With Wyatt being a Cat B rookie and outside the main list you could argue it's only 3 losses here​

0x 26-28 (LOST: Brown GAIN: Mayne)
2x O28 (LOST: Swan, Macaffer, Toovey, Cloke GAIN: Dunn, Wells)
​

So, really the future core remains unchanged with no significant losses albeit slightly off balance position wise with the loss of Witts and Frost. We do however regain the services of Keeffe (26) and Thomas (25) and if Keeffe returns in good form it will somewhat offset the loss of Frost.

Gaining 297 points is significant with two father sons and for mine shows that our primary trade purpose was to boost these points enough so we don't have to go into deficient next year. I think we achieved that.

 

[Kirby]

You'd think we'd surely be picking up a state league ruckman in the rookie draft.

 

[Ugene41]

I actually think our KPD stocks are looking fine now that we've got Dunn (who I rate). In terms of our playing stocks, we've effectively replaced Brown with Dunn, Frost with Keefe and Marsh with Goldsack. The key thing to note is that they're all much better kicks. They're all older but I actually think that's a good thing as I'm of the belief you need your backline experienced and KPD generally are at their prime around late 20s to 30s.

Our biggest defienciency apart from the ruck (where we should just rookie a state league ruckman or take a Minson) is KPF. Apart from Moore, White and Cox, we don't have any other options. We could swing Reid or Howe up forward if Moore goes down and I think we can afford to do that more now that we've improved the kicking and rebound ability of our backline. I'd also be keen to develop Scharenberg up forward as that leading mobile CHF similar to Tom Lynch at Adelaide.

 

[well left]

I actually think our KPD stocks are looking fine now that we've got Dunn (who I rate). In terms of our playing stocks, we've effectively replaced Brown with Dunn, Frost with Keefe and Marsh with Goldsack. The key thing to note is that they're all much better kicks. They're all older but I actually think that's a good thing as I'm of the belief you need your backline experienced and KPD generally are at their prime around late 20s to 30s.

Our biggest defienciency apart from the ruck (where we should just rookie a state league ruckman or take a Minson) is KPF. Apart from Moore, White and Cox, we don't have any other options. We could swing Reid or Howe up forward if Moore goes down and I think we can afford to do that more now that we've improved the kicking and rebound ability of our backline. I'd also be keen to develop Scharenberg up forward as that leading mobile CHF similar to Tom Lynch at Adelaide.

Yeah that's true.

If we assume we are taking Brown and Daicos, take 4 picks and it's those two plus a KPF and a KPB for me.

If we take 5 then add a state league ready to play ruck.

The only reason not to take a KPB is if we already know we're taking one as a FA next year i.e. Jackson Trengove. We can make do with what we have in that case for a year and possibly draft another to go with him next year.

Key forward is different. I think we need to take one this year, even if we are certain we will grab a Wright or Lynch as an example. You can't have two many top end forwards and even if we did end up with Moore and say Wright we still have room for a 3rd tall. You probably wouldn't look for a 198-200cm type but a 192-195 type would fit.

 

[Rorzza]

Regarding WHE and I apologise if I am repeating some one else's posts but I got the distinct impression that WHE was a formality some time ago. I would have thought GWS would also have known this. Weren't Adams, Treloar and WHE inseparable at their GWS days together, pretty certain that was the case. Once we got one and then Treloar, WHE was a lock. It was just a matter of when due to his contract. Obviously nothing is iron clad. I imagine GWS would have known this and there is a possibility that it might have worked against WHE regarding opportunities at the club. I wonder if CFC knew this and was part of their plan?

 

[Lefthanded]

In spite of possible big $ for Wells & Mayne I think the reality is we have cleared significant cap space this trade period (Cloke, Swan, Brown (latter definitely amongst our top 10 players salaries given he was RFA).

With 2017 free agents headlined by Fyfe and including key position players like Thompson, Trengove, Reid & Kennedy I think the significance of this can't be overlooked. 2017 we need to have a unified enough group to be on an upwards trajectory to combine with $$$ to attract some quality.
Thompson v Trengove
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...2=14&type=A&pid1=3607&pid2=3128&fid1=S&fid2=S
Kennedy v Reid
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...&pid1=3381&pid2=1610&fid1=P&fopt1=2015&fid2=S
(had to use 2015 for Reid as he didn't play in 2016 - need to fix him up like we eventually did with Ben).

As much as adding a Lynch, Wright or Patton may appeal it would come at cost of significant draft picks. I'd love to be adding one or two of the above FAs end of 2017 plus drafting a quality player with our round 1 pick. Best part about Fyfe, Thompson, Trengove & Reid is that they are all young enough to give us multiple years of service. Kennedy whilst quality would only appeal if we improve enough in 2017 that we seriously think we can compete for a flag in 2018.
Worst case we have enough cash to drive up the price for the clubs that do keep or attract some of 2017 FAs.

 

[Breakthelines]

9 senior list Players gone - Swan, Toovey, Macaffer, Goodyear, Brown, Witts, Cloke, Frost & Williams.

4 senior lists in - Wells, Mayne, WHE and Dunn.

Upgrade - Smith

DFA - Henderson/O'Shea

Draft - KPD, Brown & Daicos

 

[Crazy Tails]

In spite of possible big $ for Wells & Mayne I think the reality is we have cleared significant cap space this trade period (Cloke, Swan, Brown (latter definitely amongst our top 10 players salaries given he was RFA).

I agree with you and was surprised when it was being reported we were a bit tight on the cap and looking to have Melbourne pay some of Dunn's salary.

If that was the case I'm hoping it was because we are trying to be strict on paying only 95% this year which will enable us to go crazy next year with a cap of 105%.


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