List Mgmt. FA & trade wash up, what list spots & draft picks do we have?

[Hardas]

I sort of get the feeling that we are trying to replicate Hawthorn pre their grand finals with this trade period only problem is that they have since moved on.

My thoughts on departures and arrivals are:

1. Cloke:
We made it clear that there wasn't a role for him - don't have a problem with the outcome although on a personal level sad to see him go.

2. Williams:
This is the one that really gets to me, if there were issues and the problem was with Williams either through his behavior or relationship with coach, discuss conditions with him, offer a one year contract and if no agreement, delist! I would not have made it easier for him to find a home at minimal return to us.

3: Frost:
Don't have any issue with this, wish him well.

4: Brown:
This is another that I can't get my head around and believe we mishandled the return. It seemed obvious to me based on Buckley's comment at the Copeland that he was going. We had the chance to match the offer or let him go and obtain some sort of return through FA.
The problem was that we had already very early in the period obtained Mayne so were not entitled to any compensation. This is the trade I really don't understand. Why the rush, it is not as if we were competing with another club.

A return of say a third round for Brown, we may have packaged up to either obtain a higher pick or at least given us more options.

5. Witts:
A bit low but no real issues, player wanted to leave, we couldn't guarantee a spot.



1. Hoskin-Elliott:
Because he is not a player that I have followed or know much about, right age group and according to some has potential, perhaps second rounder is right but again, were they any other suitors. According to what I have read, GWS needed the salary relief, could we have pressed for more? Is he under contract, are we paying all of his salary? So many unknowns.

2. Dunn:
I am assuming that he really didn't cost us anything in terms of salary but yet again, don't know much about contract length but really don't have a big problem. Turning 30 in May and if he can recoup some of his early form, will be handy.

3. Wells:
Turns 32 in February, didn't cost us anything in terms of trade, three year contract, $$?, based on this years form might turn out okay and can understand why we did this deal early as he did have another club interested in him.

4. Mayne:
Will turn 28 next month, another deal finalised early. Not sure why we didn't wait as there didn't seem to be interest from other clubs and I really believe affected the return on Brown.
Again not a player that I have watched other than as a casual football observer. So not really sure of his value to the team. Contract of four years seems to be quite long, I can only think of three players that have been given 4 years, Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Treloar. Is he in that category?

One of the comments I have read was that some contracts have been front loaded so we can achieve 95% of salary cap but surely this can also be done with those up for contract renewal due in 2017 or even renegotiate existing ones. I may be wrong but I don't see that as a valid reason.

Summarising I get the feeling that our List department haven't really planned this one out very well.

Hopefully I am proved wrong and all our ins are winners and our exits don't come back to bite us on the ....

Just on a few of them, Maggie:
Williams - I have to believe the club feels it has already tried everything with him. Seems like we were quite prepared to delist him and did his manager a favour by getting him directly to another club. Connors is an important manager to keep on side, after all - these are the times we live in.
Browny - I'm pretty sure his management approached St Kilda, so I get the feeling there wasn't that much interest in him outside the club - at least not enough to be trading for him if we matched a contract offer. With Wells signing on I don't think we would've got much in the way of FA compo even without Mayne being in the frame.
Mayne - 4 years definitely seems long, but I'm sure it's not big coin and he seems durable.
WHE - was under contract for one more year. I think many of us were hoping for more if we were to give up a second rounder - hopefully he shows that he's worth it in the coming years ala Aish.

 

[Helfarch]

So the wrap up is:

Cloke gone. He left and is playing for mimimal salary. We recieved a pittance in return. FAIL. Would have been better retaining.

Brown gone. Exercised his free agent rights to play at another club for minimal salary. His wage was so little we failed to obtain compo. FAIL. Would have been better off retaining.

Witts gone. We received 46 and 62. Past trades for comparably aged and talented rucks valued him at 18-35. The team that ultimately dealt for him has 2 second rounders they aren't likely to use. FAIL. Should have held firm or retained.

Frost gone. The way the deal works out astonishingly we may actually have paid to trade him out! I'm not too fussed to lose Frost, however the return was terrible. FAIL. Should have held firm for Close or Freeman to sure up a developing key forward.

Williams gone. A return of pick 105 is insulting. FAIL. Given his talent would have been better off retaining as depth.

We have bled key forwards, key backs, and a ruck for no return. We only managed to bring in one undersized tall back who's best is gone past him. We didn't even try for someone like Stewart who went for a pick in the 70's. It's perplexing. Our tall stocks are now awful.

We did get Wells who is an excellent addition. WHE is also a good get but probably should have tried to include some of GWS key position depth players as insurance. Mayne and Dunn are both very underwhelming selections.

To add insult to injury, we failed to obtain a first round selection such is the poor return we received on our players. So while we will have a lot of salary cap next year, we are poorly placed with our picks to deal on any trades. We would be hoping for a free agent perhaps, but all the good ones are midfielders an area we are actually okay in.

I can't say I'm very proud of my club tonight. I'm terribly disappointed in fact.

Definitely fail....for the VFL side.

 

[OniAu]

Cant believe the posters that are sad Cloke is gone and Brown.

Both are done and will not get any better. In theory the spots they fill its a loss , however the output from both for veterans was pretty below average.

 

[Finnishpie]

You have to look at the big picture sometimes. At the end of the day there is only so many list spots being filled, its just a matter of what with. Everyone bangs on about all GWS & GC draft picks gained but they simply can't use them all so they are worthless unless they delist a bunch of decent players. You have to sit down at the end and ask will our list improve. We also need to remember we are still paying a high price for Treloar that effects our list this year.

I am still waiting to see what happens with these father son picks as if they fail it will change my outlook. For instance, with the Witts pick if it is pick 30 or pick 44 it just doesn't matter if we have to use it on Callum Brown anyway. We all would have liked an early 2nd rounder for Witts, but an uncontracted VFL player with potential does not go for that. Vardy was in a similar situation to Witts and went very late.

People are complaining that Brown left for nothing, but we picked up 2 players for nothing, its free agency and we need to get used to it.

Williams I think is a special case, something more going on there than we know. If he wasn't traded he was to be delisted.

Yeah I really don't get the Williams deal. I mean, 2 years ago he came 7th in our B & F and now he's going to be delisted. Can someone explain it to me?

 

[Jasper84]

Yeah I really don't get the Williams deal. I mean, 2 years ago he came 7th in our B & F and now he's going to be delisted. Can someone explain it to me?

My understanding is that the club stood by him and did all they could to keep him out jail. He showed his appreciation by being an A grade dickbag off the field and a liability on it.

 

[Finnishpie]

My understanding is that the club stood by him and did all they could to keep him out jail. He showed his appreciation by being an A grade dickbag off the field and a liability on it.

Can I ask where you heard that?

 

[Unknown Identity]

Depth chart of our current list.
Left Marsh out.

Think i have the classifications right, somebody will no doubt pick up on any errors.

Clearly our biggest needs this draft, Key Defender, Key Forward, Small Forward, Small Defender (Pace and Footskills) and maybe a project ruckman with a late pick.

Obviously we're not privy to our clubs FA targets or draft boards for this year and next.

Looking at free agency, Rory Thompson from GC is a restricted FA next year, at 25 years old i would be in his ear already and would be a great addition as a Key Defender.

I'd be into Luke Breust also, gauging his interest for a potential move.

If you could get an early indication (pre 2016 draft) that they would be open for moves at the end of next year (unlikely) Considering we will take Daicos and Brown as Father Sons, our best bet is to go with either a Key Forward or Small Defender with pace and foot skills at Pick 28.

Patrick Kerr and Cedric Cox (184cm but can play on smaller opponents due to speed) fit the bill and should be in that range.

 

[Jasper84]

Can I ask where you heard that?

A lot of people have seen him out and about in fine form. Lives with Dustin Martin and wants to holiday with Swan. Rumoured to be buddies with Jake King. Mysteriously MIA just before the season started. Rumoured punch up with Taylor Adams following the illicit drug saga.

All the hallmarks of someone out of form, desperately trying to get their life together after narrowly avoiding prison.

 

[TW Sherrin]

View attachment 303392

Depth chart of our current list.
Left Marsh out.

Think i have the classifications right, somebody will no doubt pick up on any errors.

Clearly our biggest needs this draft, Key Defender, Key Forward, Small Forward, Small Defender (Pace and Footskills) and maybe a project ruckman with a late pick.

Obviously we're not privy to our clubs FA targets or draft boards for this year and next.

Looking at free agency, Rory Thompson from GC is a restricted FA next year, at 25 years old i would be in his ear already and would be a great addition as a Key Defender.

I'd be into Luke Breust also, gauging his interest for a potential move.

If you could get an early indication (pre 2016 draft) that they would be open for moves at the end of next year (unlikely) Considering we will take Daicos and Brown as Father Sons, our best bet is to go with either a Key Forward or Small Defender with pace and foot skills at Pick 28.

Patrick Kerr and Cedric Cox (184cm but can play on smaller opponents due to speed) fit the bill and should be in that range.

UI, the only change I'd make is putting smith to small defender and crisp to inside mid although he can play inside and outside.

 

[Unknown Identity]

UI, the only change I'd make is putting smith to small defender and crisp to inside mid although he can play inside and outside.

Legend, Completely left Smith out..

Added Inside Mid to Crisp.

 

[Lefthanded]

I'm actually pretty pleased getting Dunn. Given the circumstance, and some of the other likely candidates being thrown around (Dawson, Silvagni), not the worst outcome. Hopefully a cheap and cheerful pick up that can hold the line for a couple of years while we dig ourselves out of the list hole we seem to have dug ourselves.

The big take away for me is that its an extremely risky and fraught process trading your future first round pick. A year is a long time in footy and you don't know what your needs will be in twelve months and how much you've limited yourself.

I'd like to see us just draft the best kid we can each year from now on with our first unless something exceptional is available.

So you are regretting getting Treloar?

 

[Lefthanded]

I must admit when I first saw the results of the fire sale, my initial thoughts were 'WTF'. We have given away players for not much at all.

I have settled down now and have tried to put the situation into perspective.

I think that it is fairly obvious that the overriding factor in the list strategy this year was too move on the unskilled, ball butchers and introduce good ball users.

Retirements: Swan, McAffer, Toovey
Delistings: Goodyear, Wyatt, Gault (will happen)
Traded out: Frost, Brown, Williams, Witts, Cloke
Traded in: Wells, Mayne, Hoskin-Elliott, Dunn
Unknown: Marsh

I would argue with anyone that the ONLY player we will miss here is Swan. The rest are either too old, thinly skilled or a dickhead (Williams).

As far as what the ins are being paid, I couldn't give a toss. It's output on the field that I care about.

I cannot believe the outcry over proposed salaries. Much of it is conjecture anyway and with the TPP to go up next year, I think we still have a huge surplus in available money to use next year.

Wells is a gun who is a brilliant user of the ball. He played 18 games this year so his durability hopefully has returned. This is a win. And best yet was free.

Dunn is on par as far as defensive ability as Brown, is more mobile and a great ball user. Win again and was relatively free. Only cost us 4 draft positions, 47 to 51.

Mayne hopefully will be a Blair replacement. Bigger body, better mark and arguably a better ball user than Blair, although, I admit his goal kicking accuracy over the last 2 years hasn't been great. Is rated one of the best defensive forwards, if not the best at the moment, and yet again was free.

Hoskin-Elliott is the big plus for mine. Can run, use the ball and is a big mark. You're all thinking why hasn't he played more, but breaking into the Giants team at the moment is not easy. I would put forward that if he plays instead of that Carlscum bound flog Rhys Palmer in the prelim, they win the game and play in the GF.

So initially I was alarmed but on careful reflection, it isn't that bad. If we get a good kid at 28, and from what I have seen, a guy named Will Hayward could possibly be live at that time and he looks a beauty. Add in Daicos and Brown and we're off and running.

Remember the low bargaining position we had at the start. The players we gave up are not world beaters. The only angst I have is what Hoskin-Elliott cost us. I would have thought we could have bargained for a pick or player added as a kicker.

The media are all over how well Carlscum and Whorethorn have traded. I beg to differ.

Who have Carlscum got in - a bunch of Giants reserves players to go with the other waste of times from last year.
Palmer - enough said
Marchbank - may be the best of them but injury prone
Picket - another with LissFranc foot problems

They don't compare to our Giants guys in Treloar, Adams and hopefully Hoskin-Elliott. They now have 9 ex Giants players of which only one is any good. well done SOS, you overrated flog. He stuffed up the Gibbs trade by asking for too much and now has a very angry player on his hands.

As for Whorethorn, this has got to be the biggest trading risk in history. Who have they got in:
Vickery - Ha, ha , ha.
O'Meara - huge risk on the injury front and could be huge resentment from remaining players for what his salary is and players who have left. These include 1 and 2 in the BF, Mitchell and Lewis, and their quickest outside runner in Hill.
Mitchell - good player but if the Swans let him go without a fight, what does that say? There were others who could have gone to clear up cap space.

And for all this they've sold the farm. First pick this year is 88 and they don't have a round 1 or 2 next year.

When you take everything into perspective, I don't think all is as bad as it seems. May need to top up with a couple of talls, who are out there by the way, although the day of the big tall KPP may have come to an end. Didn't bother the Doggies too much this year.

If we have a better run with injuries than what we've had in the last 4 years, we get Elliott and Fasolo back into that forward line, natural improvement from all the kids, suddenly things are looking up.

They obviously want to be more mobile, so hopefully we will be a much better TEAM next year.

Good summary. Agree Swan is the obvious one we will miss but if something happens to Grundy than we might miss Witts, or Cox may be a better replacement than him. Marsh also potentially missed.

Small correction – Hawks do have 2017 round 2 pick (that from GWS), otherwise they wouldn’t have been able to trade their own rnd 1&2.

 

[Lefthanded]

So the wrap up is:

Cloke gone. He left and is playing for mimimal salary. We recieved a pittance in return. FAIL. Would have been better retaining.

Brown gone. Exercised his free agent rights to play at another club for minimal salary. His wage was so little we failed to obtain compo. FAIL. Would have been better off retaining.

Witts gone. We received 46 and 62. Past trades for comparably aged and talented rucks valued him at 18-35. The team that ultimately dealt for him has 2 second rounders they aren't likely to use. FAIL. Should have held firm or retained.

Frost gone. The way the deal works out astonishingly we may actually have paid to trade him out! I'm not too fussed to lose Frost, however the return was terrible. FAIL. Should have held firm for Close or Freeman to sure up a developing key forward.

Williams gone. A return of pick 105 is insulting. FAIL. Given his talent would have been better off retaining as depth.

We have bled key forwards, key backs, and a ruck for no return. We only managed to bring in one undersized tall back who's best is gone past him. We didn't even try for someone like Stewart who went for a pick in the 70's. It's perplexing. Our tall stocks are now awful.

We did get Wells who is an excellent addition. WHE is also a good get but probably should have tried to include some of GWS key position depth players as insurance. Mayne and Dunn are both very underwhelming selections.

To add insult to injury, we failed to obtain a first round selection such is the poor return we received on our players. So while we will have a lot of salary cap next year, we are poorly placed with our picks to deal on any trades. We would be hoping for a free agent perhaps, but all the good ones are midfielders an area we are actually okay in.

I can't say I'm very proud of my club tonight. I'm terribly disappointed in fact.

Witts – you might need to point out where these 2nd rounders Suns won’t use are as I can’t see them. They did have lots but have already used all of them in trades. Agree we should have pushed for more, even if it was swaps of 2017 picks but preferably an upgrade of our 2nd round this year before they’d traded all their 2nd rounders.

Brown – salary assumption already corrected by others

 

[Lefthanded]

A sense of optimism?..

(The following is all dependent on good health as whilst our best side is pretty good, our depth isn't as great at all anymore.)

A couple weeks ago I highlighted the performance in Round 23 against ultimately a side who made just the two changes before missing a home prelim by, what, mere metres (Isaac Smith's shot after the siren).

That side showed us the sort of footy we're capable of but crucially with a lineup missing many of our best players.

The side that day was:

Williams Marsh Maynard
Smith Brown Howe
Greenwood Crisp Sidebottom
Varcoe Cloke De Goey
Blair White Crocker
Grundy Pendlebury Treloar
Wills Aish Goldsack Phillips

If we swap in/out for our best players, our best 22 if fully fit that day would have been:

Ramsay Marsh Maynard
Sharenberg Reid Howe
Greenwood Crisp Sidebottom
Varcoe Moore De Goey
Elliott White Fasolo
Grundy Pendlebury Treloar
Wills Aish Sinclair Adams

Now, if we are to swap in/out for the trade period, here is our updated best 22:

Ramsay Dunn Maynard
Shaz Reid Howe
Hoskin-Elliott Crisp Sidebottom
Varcoe Moore De Goey
Elliott White Fasolo
Grundy Pendlebury Treloar
Wells Aish Mayne Adams

The bottom line is that from that really promising, encouraging Round 23 side, we've effectively done:

Adams for Wills
Elliott for Blair
Fasolo for Crocker
Moore for Cloke
Ramsay for Williams
Sharenberg for Smith
Reid for Brown
Dunn for Marsh (due to personal reasons this one)
Mayne for Goldsack
Wells for Phillips
Hoskin-Elliott for Greenwood

Combining that level of performance from Round 23 with those subjective but impressive 11 changes, there is some geniune scope to be optimistic.

True about the optimism but what are the chances we (or any team) will have a fully fit best 22?

 

[TW Sherrin]

True about the optimism but what are the chances we (or any team) will have a fully fit best 22?

What chance....Clarkos and none.

 

[CaptainHowdy87]

We did quite Well with what Happened Last year with Aish and Treloar. We did not have a Ton to play with.

Wells could be good for a Year or 2.

Mayne I think can help fix our Forward Pressure

WHE can be Anything. He could be a Superstar IF we can get him Fit. Feels a Need on the List. Player With Pace and X-Factor

Dunn is pretty much come in to help give the Backline Depth after Losing Brown,Frost and Williams.

I am bit sad we gave Williams and Cloke away.

I like your glass half full attitude.

Why will you miss Cloke and Marley though?

 

[CaptainHowdy87]

What the actual **** was that Marley Williams deal? Pick 105 is worthless.

As was Marley. So glad he's gone.

 

[cleomenes]

Cant believe the posters that are sad Cloke is gone and Brown.

Both are done and will not get any better. In theory the spots they fill its a loss , however the output from both for veterans was pretty below average.

More than anything else, the gamble the club is taking that Grundy, Reid and Moore will all get through the season uninjured bothers me. I can see that the cleanout has removed most of the poor kicks from the team, and only brought in better kicks, but there are not yet adequate replacements as players for the guys who have gone.
There are things to play out I realise, but itlooks grim at the moment.

 

[OniAu]

More than anything else, the gamble the club is taking that Grundy, Reid and Moore will all get through the season uninjured bothers me. I can see that the cleanout has removed most of the poor kicks from the team, and only brought in better kicks, but there are not yet adequate replacements as players for the guys who have gone.
There are things to play out I realise, but itlooks grim at the moment.

Gault and Cox are in the VFL

Grundy I'm sure they will be picking up a mature ruck as insurance and again cox as a possibility

Cant agree more with the Reid issue , he hasn't played close to a whole season for years. Marsh leaving hurts also. I was hoping even Longergan would be picked up tbh

 

[TradeDraft]

I like your glass half full attitude.

Why will you miss Cloke and Marley though?

Not Missed much but Cloke and Williams be good depth

 

[jmac70]

Any more delistings? Marsh, Gault and Oxley?

 

[TradeDraft]

Any more delistings? Marsh, Gault and Oxley?

Not yet. Gault and Marsh sound like they will.

Oxley will Stay

 

[obleex]

• Cox
• White
• Keeffe

Well that's a worry.

 

[76woodenspooners]

Think i have the classifications right, somebody will no doubt pick up on any errors

Not sure if the club has mentioned where they intend to play Keeffe, but last time he was training with us he'd been moved out of the backline and into the forward line.

 

[Babylove]

So I've done a more analytical study of our off season to date.

Age Profile
A big talking point was the age of our recruits, so I thought I'd do an age profile analysis (including rookies). For the purposes of this exercise I have excluded Macaffer, Toovey, Swan, Goodyear, Golds and Wyatt as they had departed the club prior to trade week, and have included Marsh and Gault as they have not officially left the club. Also all ages are based on a players age as at 1st March 2017.

Prior to the trade period we had:
13 players 22 & Under
15 players 23 to 25
7 players 26 to 28
4 players over 28

Our average age was 24.175
Our average games played was 69.325

Total of 39 senior and rookie listed players (35 senior and 4 rookies (including Gault as rookie))

After the trade period we have:
13 players 22 & Under
12 players 23 to 25
7 players 26 to 28
5 players over 28

Our average age was 24.333
Our average games played was 73.513

Total of 37 senior and rookie listed players (33 senior and 4 rookies (including Gault as rookie))

Draft Pick Analysis
Given that points is a talking point for us given our two father son selections so I have utilised this to value our draft picks.

Prior to the trade period (including movements for compensations) we had:
26, 44, 62, 80, 98, 116 totalling 1214 points

After the trade period (including movements for compensations) we have:
28, 44, 51, 62, 65, 83, 101, 105, 119 totalling 1511 points

The trades from an accountant's perspective

Travis Cloke - Like most was disappointed with pick 76, however let's look at the market. Sam Mitchell aged 34, best and fairest for Hawthorn 2016 got pick 88 (essentially). Jordan Lewis aged 29, best and fairest for Hawthorn 2016 got a pick in the sixties. Travis Cloke has was dropped 3 times, played 13 games, with scratchy form, and his form was only marginally better in 2015. He is the same age as Lewis, so based on the market this 76 is probably about right.

Marley Williams - Again the pick we got back was terribly disappointing. But we made no secret of the fact that he was unlikely to receive a contract if he didn't get traded. That put his value at about 0 given that clubs could wait until DFA if necessary. Unsure what happened here, but Williams lost the faith of the coaches and list managers in 2016, was that due to on field or off field issues?

Witts and Frost - I put these two together as I felt the compensation they received was about fair given they were essentially depth & VFL players for us this year.

Wells & Mayne - The length of contract is what was contentious for these two (note I will not analyse salary figures as the figures being bandied about are guesses, not definite). However the trend this year was that players were moving or staying for longer contracts rather money as the deciding factor. Lewis said yes to Melbourne because they offered him a 3rd year, which he openly stated. Frost went to Brisbane because they were willing to offer 3 years. And for us Wells and Mayne were attracted to us as due to the 3 and 4 years we were prepared to offer.

Hoskin-Elliott - Hard to get a value on WHE. Didn't play this year, but was a high draft pick playing in a deep team and had a year to run on his contract. For future recruiting endeavours, I would rather get this done rather than be in Adelaide's position with Gibbs. Surely players would think twice about a club who would get a player to commit but then not get them across the line.

Where our list currently sits
Senior Outs (confirmed only): Swan, Macaffer, Toovey, Goodyear, Brown, Cloke, Williams, Witts Frost
Rookie Outs: Golds, Wyatt

Senior Ins (confirmed only): Wells, Mayne, Hoskin-Elliott, Dunn
Rookie Ins: Nil

Senior List: 35
Rookie List: 3 (A), 1 (B)

Key Dates
DFA 1 - 1st November to 8th November
DFA 2 - 10th November to 18th November
DFA 3 - 26 November to 27th November
National Draft - 25th November
Pre-Season & Rookie Draft - 28th November
Training commences 1-4 year players - 7th November
Training commences 5+ year players - 21st November

Final Thoughts
Our big man depth has taken a hit, though to be honest the defence and ruck concerns me more than the forwards. Other teams have shown that versatile forward lines can be effective, and we do have the talent if we can get them on the park. The defensive requirements are a little dependent on the opposition though, so being light on down here is a concern, and we have no number 1 reserver so if Grundy goes down, we are reliant on part timers. It's possible the KPD could be solved through the DFA at least in the short term as there are a few there, but the rucks may have to wait for the rookie draft.

For me the biggest concern is that for the fifth year in a row we have had a significant turnover of the list. Albeit they were mostly fringe players, or players on their way to being so, but our list isn't being given time to settle. I have thought going into last offseason and this one that we need to settle and have some quieter off-season to let the list have time to gel. My sincerest hope for next year, is that we target one or two players who fill a need if there is quality available, but otherwise have a quiet one. However it is good to know that we go into the next draft with a 1st round draft selection which means if things do go pear shaped at least we can hit the draft next year.