Autopsy Geelong loses to Demons by 4 points - Rd 23

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Losing sucks but the emotions have cooled and I'm not bothered at all about last night.

In fact, I'd much rather play Port in a QF to avoid a SF than Brisbane, who are absolutely flying. I think we did ourselves a favour in losing last night to be perfectly frank. We are playing in the easier of the two QFs and we finished third. That doesn't seem fair but I'm not complaining.

But let us break it down a little bit for those who are upset:

  • The Tigers are cooked after going so far into last season and then the short pre-season. We are in the exact same boat as Richmond and yet we finished third on the ladder. Where did they finish? They are not playing finals and we have the double chance. That's a huge achievement. We should celebrate that for sure.
  • There was zero reward for winning. According to Scott, both the QFs are at Adelaide Oval. The only difference is one team will have a home crowd, but it is a home crowd Geelong has zero fear of facing due to beating Port at AO already this year. I think we'd take Port with a home crowd over Brisbane with no home crowd, and why put your body on the line in a game that doesn't alter the home ground for finals?
  • According to Dangerfield, it is impossible to stay focused and in the moment without a crowd. We have played so many weeks without a crowd now. I think the boys are sick of it. We're probably excited to be playing in front of Port's ferals.
  • Next week's game has actual stakes. It's hard to care about a game that has zero stakes, but especially when the game which follows it is a final.

Put those four things together. Last night's game had zero stakes and zero crowd to keep us in the moment. That and the fatigue from going all the way to last year's GF meant it was hard for the boys to force themselves to care. Maybe if we were fresher--for example, maybe if we'd hadn't spent years making finals and therefore were less fatigued--we would care about games that don't matter. Is anyone surprised we checked out? I'm not. The boys are human.

We also need to factor in the 44 points. The boys saw they could break open the best team all year. That's all they really wanted to learn out of last night's game. If we face Melbourne again, I think the club will be confident. Not of an easy victory, but confident that when the stakes matter and we play our best footy, Melbourne are very gettable, the Footy Gods willing.
 
I guess last night when I questioned how well we were going at one point and people laughed is now a little interesting
 

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Why?
This time last year had same QF match up v Port and got done over
Logic suggests same result

It's not logic, it's assumption.

They've got a few different players, we've got a few different players. Their players are in different form, our players are in different form. Hinkley's probably tweaked the game plan, we've done the same.

There are so many variables and to say "oh well, because we lost last year in the same game, we're going to get beaten next week" is just worst-case thinking, because we don't want to get our hopes up (and if we do lose next week, I'll be right there as well).
 

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The optics didn't look good to let such a lead go but Scotty was open and honest in his presser, and it was strange in the 2nd half even by our standards the chip chip game was taken to a new level. Finally, the real stuff begins this week.
 
On another note, Holmes really is developing nicely.

Apart from whatever the hell that was approaching goal, finished with 18 disposals, 7 tackles (2nd highest), and 5 clearances - off 65% game time.

(By comparison, Simpson only had 12 disposals in 71% game time, but perhaps that's the old "second game back blues".)

I'm guessing Max makes way if Duncan gets back, but he's going to be a regular next year.
 
Back to the game. Hopefully the lessons are now clear.

* Dahlhaus and at times Close on Lever didn’t really work. He will drag you to a contest and if you can’t compete in the air it’s ineffective. Miers could get flogged like that but at least he’d punish him on the scoreboard.
* Letting Salem run up close to 30 possies was a disaster. He does that Melb win. It’s Melb 101. He must get close attention. Dahl should be on him. Like Whitfield at the Giants which we also did SFA to stop.
* letting the ball live in our backline with the skills we have down there will not work against decent teams. We cannot transition it from D50 to F50 esp without Stewart, Duncan and Touhy involved in the chains. There is only one chance to win this flag and it’s by kicking 13-16 goals in each of the finals. Our Fwd line in our one wood.
* Nothing about the Demons fwd line screams scary to me. So many scrappy goals. They will struggle to kick 80 points even on a good day. Ben Brown, Jackson, Pickett, Fritsch, Sparrow and Spargo would be one of the weakest of a minor premier ever. They do compete hard but it’s hardly scary. They want to hit you on the counter as realistically that’s the only way they score. Turning the ball over around 40-50 out is lethal. The ball must go deeper which we refused to do. They also scored from the centre but that is harder to stop.
 
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It was clear Selwood & Danger were off in the last quarter to rest them for next week. This game really means little in the scheme of things. You win you play a red hot Brisbane. You lose you play a red hot Port. Losing this game is not the end of the world or our finals campaign. Let Melbourne enjoy the minor premiership for a few days. They deserve it. In recent years, most premierships are won from 2nd or 3rd anyway.
 
He shows what you can draft if you spend a decade down the bottom of the ladder - was the #4 pick in the 2015 draft. That's been our worst year in the past 14 and we got #9. Adelaide picked up Milera, who's played two games in the last two seasons (due to injury, I think).

If we want players like that, we've got to go down the ladder. And based on the reaction of some of us tonight, that seems a fate too horrible to even contemplate.

A few of us here have lived through consecutive decades of the Cats achieving nothing, and letting us down in the big dance if / when we finally got there.

I suspect most of us would cope if the club complied with gravity and began re-generating rather than continually topping up.

The topping up strategy we've doggedly pursued this last decade has won us a lot of H & A games, but done little for us come finals. It's a hollow feeling, and if it's not capped with a Cup the amazing winning % will rapidly fade into oblivion within the history books.

We want to see the silverware again.

We're 10 years in on this current quest. We did 44 last time.
 

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After the Giants loss and now followed by this embarrassment, the writing is on the wall. Compounded by the loss of Tom Stewart, they have run out of steam. The home ground fortress has had the walls breached and it will be a miracle if they even get within 4 goals of Port next week. Teams don't rebound after losing with a 7 goal halftime lead at home! This is a team under siege mentally and they will be flat as a tack for a couple of weeks, just in time for a straight-sets exit! Geelong will be heavily involved at the trade table this year, they are not good enough and are definitely flattered by their top 4 position.
 
Let's hope Melbourne beat Brisbane next week because if we lose to port and win the semi final the following week we will have to travel to the Gabba for a prelim!!!

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Not sure this will happen with quarantine. Surely all games will be played at AO and then straight to Optus?
 
In that case it would be Fort

If Ratugolea was our main ruck tonight, Melbourne would have run away with the match in the first quarter

Stanley was a key reason we got 40 points up and was the dominant ruck most of the night - more players then him failed to have an impact in the last
Stanley played quite well. That dominant period we had from the centre bounce was because of his ruck work.
 
It’s interesting how the game setup was - we always hear about teams that come to Geelong and don’t allow for the size of the ground and consequently kick OOTF.

yet we did it a few more times than is acceptable last night. Is there anything in that?
 
Losing sucks but the emotions have cooled and I'm not bothered at all about last night.

In fact, I'd much rather play Port in a QF to avoid a SF than Brisbane, who are absolutely flying. I think we did ourselves a favour in losing last night to be perfectly frank. We are playing in the easier of the two QFs and we finished third. That doesn't seem fair but I'm not complaining.

But let us break it down a little bit for those who are upset:

  • The Tigers are cooked after going so far into last season and then the short pre-season. We are in the exact same boat as Richmond and yet we finished third on the ladder. Where did they finish? They are not playing finals and we have the double chance. That's a huge achievement. We should celebrate that for sure.
  • There was zero reward for winning. According to Scott, both the QFs are at Adelaide Oval. The only difference is one team will have a home crowd, but it is a home crowd Geelong has zero fear of facing due to beating Port at AO already this year. I think we'd take Port with a home crowd over Brisbane with no home crowd, and why put your body on the line in a game that doesn't alter the home ground for finals?
  • According to Dangerfield, it is impossible to stay focused and in the moment without a crowd. We have played so many weeks without a crowd now. I think the boys are sick of it. We're probably excited to be playing in front of Port's ferals.
  • Next week's game has actual stakes. It's hard to care about a game that has zero stakes, but especially when the game which follows it is a final.

Put those four things together. Last night's game had zero stakes and zero crowd to keep us in the moment. That and the fatigue from going all the way to last year's GF meant it was hard for the boys to force themselves to care. Maybe if we were fresher--for example, maybe if we'd hadn't spent years making finals and therefore were less fatigued--we would care about games that don't matter. Is anyone surprised we checked out? I'm not. The boys are human.

We also need to factor in the 44 points. The boys saw they could break open the best team all year. That's all they really wanted to learn out of last night's game. If we face Melbourne again, I think the club will be confident. Not of an easy victory, but confident that when the stakes matter and we play our best footy, Melbourne are very gettable, the Footy Gods willing.
Hopefully everyone has sobered up a bit, real season starts now
 
Ah well, can’t lose a game from 44 points up and be serious contender. That’s going to be very hard to come back from. Guthrie kicking it out on the full. Gawn taking an easy mark. Henderson running into Cameron ( for what would have been the sealer). Dangerfield and selwood disappearing from the game.Thought the close 50 was pretty tough I must say. The team seemed to stop in the second half. Inexplicable. Got what we deserved and in a season that is so even, to blow that -it’s not good enough. Very disappointing because our best footy, which we saw for awhile tonight, is fantastic.
The funny thing is - Melbourne were dominated for a good period of the match. They only won because of a few very lucky plays at the end. If they lost, then everyone would be talking about how Melbourne are no good.

I’d say both teams got a good feel for each other. At the end it could have gone either way.

It’s a nothing game before the finals. There’s plenty of positives for the cats and a bit more to consider regarding controlling tempo at the right time.
 
Back to the game. Hopefully the lessons are now clear.

* Dahlhaus and at times Close on Lever didn’t really work. He will drag you to a contest and if you can’t compete in the air it’s ineffective. Miers could get flogged like that but at least he’d punish him on the scoreboard.
* Letting Salem run up close to 30 possies was a disaster. He does that Melb win. It’s Melb 101. He must get close attention. Dahl should be on him. Like Whitfield at the Giants which we also did SFA to stop.
* letting the ball live in our backline with the skills we have down there will not work against decent teams. We cannot transition it from D50 to F50 esp without Stewart, Duncan and Touhy involved in the chains. There is only won chance to win this flag and it’s by kicking 13-16 goals in each of the finals. Our Fwd line in our one wood.
* Nothing about the Demons fwd line screams scary to me. So many scrappy goals. They will struggle to kick 80 points even on a good day. Ben Brown, Jackson, Pickett, Fritsch, Sparrow and Spargo would be one of the weakest of a minor premier ever. They do compete hard but it’s hardly scary. They want to hit you on the counter as realistically that’s the only way they score. Turning the ball over around 40-50 out is lethal. The ball must go deeper which we refused to do. They also scored from the centre but that is harder to stop.

The big mistake the brains trust made was allowing Menegola to play deep in defence. He doesn't have the wherewithal to stop, prop and assess good options. He generally invites pressure and therefore his decision making and execution become sub standard.

Of course, these are all knock-on effects of not having small defenders that are good users of the ball. Rich earlier in the day, and Salem last night were both instrumental in their wins. Sobering really that we continue to recruit medium/smalls with below average kicking skills.
 
Hopefully everyone has sobered up a bit, real season starts now
No mate, the realist will tell you we can't win a premiership with Blicavs, Kolodjashnij, O'Connor and Atkins in the backline.

All are woeful under pressure.
 
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