Rumour GFC 2022 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists

[cats_09]

 

[Hamingja]

Will cost more than this years round 1 given it will be pick 20ish.

If they wait to FA next year that's all they would get based on Crouch to St Kilda who I would say is a similiar level player.

When you finish in the bottom 4 better off taking the pick this year for a player that doesn't want to be there. Get a year development in a new kid and bank the cap space for the future.

 

[Baudolino]

He really shouldn't, my model had him as 3rd worst performing inside mid this year.

Sample size is too small to extrapolate much from that, surely? He's only played 6 games this year.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

No disrespect but I'm content that you aren't Geelong's list manager.

I didnt say i wanted us to chase him i just made a statement that it will cost more than pick 20 to get him while under contract which it will.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

He really shouldn't, my model had him as 3rd worst performing inside mid this year.

He was injured for 2/3 of the year so i wouldnt be looking at this years data.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I didnt say i wanted us to chase him i just made a statement that it will cost more than pick 20 to get him while under contract which it will.

I disagree. He isn't worth more than pick 20.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I disagree. He isn't worth more than pick 20.

But when he is under contract his worth is the price that gws will trade him at not his actual worth,which was my point. Im fully confident they wont trade him unless more than pick 20 is offered.

 

[MacStradbroke]

But when he is under contract his worth is the price that gws will trade him at not his actual worth,which was my point. Im fully confident they wont trade him unless more than pick 20 is offered.

Yeah if you look at this years All Australian squad and be told you can have one of the mids (in their mid 20s) for a pick in the twenties next year…where do we sign!

Hopper was on the very edge of the All Australian team only last year. I’d be confident he could be a star for us if he crosses this off season.

 

[Lana]

Sample size is too small to extrapolate much from that, surely? He's only played 6 games this year.

7, similar number of games to the U18 championships

A third of a year is more than others get judged on.

He was injured for 2/3 of the year so i wouldnt be looking at this years data.

We're buying the 2022 version not the 2021 version. Port probably thought that when they recruited Motlop from us.

Model doesn't think too highly of his 2021, Z score of -0.2. This year he had a Z score of -0.9

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

7, similar number of games to the U18 championships

A third of a year is more than others get judged on.




We're buying the 2022 version not the 2021 version. Port probably thought that when they recruited Motlop from us.

Model doesn't think too highly of his 2021, Z score of -0.2. This year he had a Z score of -0.9

Who does your model rank as top 5 in each area of the ground?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Karl Amon is moving back to Victoria and would be a nice fit in our team, in my humble opinion - another left-footer, hard at it, kicks goals etc. Duncan and Menegola have been our wingers but are both slowing down.

Amon is a nice outside player but I would think that we need to rotate Holmes, Dempsey, Knevitt through that role

 

[CatToTheFuture]

But when he is under contract his worth is the price that gws will trade him at not his actual worth,which was my point. Im fully confident they wont trade him unless more than pick 20 is offered.

New coach will likely put a broom through to get rid of any players who might be cultural baggage. A player that doesn't want to be there is definitely cultural baggage.

I would say there's a possibility of a motivated seller

 

[Lana]

Who does your model rank as top 5 in each area of the ground?

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​
Western Bulldogs​	Marcus​	Bontempelli​	27​	CD_I297373​	Inside Midfield​
Western Bulldogs​	Tom​	Liberatore​	30​	CD_I290799​	Inside Midfield​
Melbourne​	Clayton​	Oliver​	25​	CD_I996701​	Inside Midfield​
Collingwood​	Jack​	Crisp​	29​	CD_I293871​	Inside Midfield​
Essendon​	Zach​	Merrett​	27​	CD_I992016​	Inside Midfield​

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​
GWS Giants​	Harry​	Himmelberg​	26​	CD_I993107​	KEY_DEFENDER​
West Coast Eagles​	Jeremy​	McGovern​	30​	CD_I294859​	KEY_DEFENDER​
Hawthorn​	James​	Sicily​	27​	CD_I297566​	KEY_DEFENDER​
Collingwood​	Jeremy​	Howe​	32​	CD_I291313​	KEY_DEFENDER​
GWS Giants​	Sam​	Taylor​	23​	CD_I1005247​	KEY_DEFENDER​

*Himmelberg has some games that should be categorised as Key defender still under Key Forward, next player in would be Ben McKay

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​
Richmond​	Tom J.​	Lynch​	30​	CD_I293813​	KEY_FORWARD​
Adelaide Crows​	Taylor​	Walker​	32​	CD_I280506​	KEY_FORWARD​
Geelong Cats​	Jeremy​	Cameron​	29​	CD_I293845​	KEY_FORWARD​
Carlton​	Charlie​	Curnow​	25​	CD_I996731​	KEY_FORWARD​
Sydney Swans​	Lance​	Franklin​	35​	CD_I240399​	KEY_FORWARD​

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​
St Kilda​	Jack​	Sinclair​	27​	CD_I994389​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​
Carlton​	Adam​	Saad​	28​	CD_I295461​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​
Geelong Cats​	Tom​	Stewart​	29​	CD_I291800​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​
North Melbourne​	Aaron​	Hall​	32​	CD_I296735​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​
Western Bulldogs​	Bailey​	Dale​	26​	CD_I996708​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​	Games​
Richmond​	Noah​	Cumberland​	21​	CD_I1009308​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	7​
Hawthorn​	Dylan​	Moore​	23​	CD_I1006314​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	16​
Fremantle​	Sam​	Switkowski​	26​	CD_I992059​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	11​
Port Adelaide​	Kane​	Farrell​	23​	CD_I1002253​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	8​
Hawthorn​	Luke​	Breust​	32​	CD_I280744​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	21​
Sydney Swans​	Isaac​	Heeney​	26​	CD_I298539​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	19​
Geelong Cats​	Tyson​	Stengle​	24​	CD_I997230​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	22​
Brisbane Lions​	Cam​	Rayner​	23​	CD_I1002235​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	9​
Brisbane Lions​	Charlie​	Cameron​	28​	CD_I990609​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	22​

* lot of players with low match totals

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​
Adelaide Crows​	Jordan​	Dawson​	25​	CD_I992242​	Outside Midfield​
Geelong Cats​	Max​	Holmes​	20​	CD_I1015889​	Outside Midfield​
Sydney Swans​	Errol​	Gulden​	20​	CD_I1013128​	Outside Midfield​
Port Adelaide​	Dan​	Houston​	25​	CD_I994295​	Outside Midfield​
Collingwood​	Steele​	Sidebottom​	31​	CD_I280965​	Outside Midfield​

* very few players play a full year in the role

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​	Games​
Port Adelaide​	Jeremy​	Finlayson​	26​	CD_I298111​	RUCK​	10​
Western Bulldogs​	Tim​	English​	25​	CD_I1004592​	RUCK​	15​
Melbourne​	Luke​	Jackson​	21​	CD_I1009399​	RUCK​	20​
Geelong Cats​	Mark​	Blicavs​	31​	CD_I296733​	RUCK​	11​
North Melbourne​	Todd​	Goldstein​	34​	CD_I271129​	RUCK​	22​
Melbourne​	Max​	Gawn​	31​	CD_I290528​	RUCK​	20​
Fremantle​	Sean​	Darcy​	24​	CD_I998145​	RUCK​	19​
Gold Coast Suns​	Jarrod​	Witts​	30​	CD_I291975​	RUCK​	22​
Essendon​	Sam​	Draper​	24​	CD_I1005577​	RUCK​	22​

* Flaw with the model it doesn't adequately record the impact against for a direct opponent

 

[Pure_Ownage]

7, similar number of games to the U18 championships

A third of a year is more than others get judged on.




We're buying the 2022 version not the 2021 version. Port probably thought that when they recruited Motlop from us.

Model doesn't think too highly of his 2021, Z score of -0.2. This year he had a Z score of -0.9

If you think youre buying the 2022 version (ie limited pre season and injured) for the rest of his career then you dont buy him at all, if any club is buying him its because they think they are getting the 2021 version hence i wouldnt be doing the analysis off 2022 stats.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

New coach will likely put a broom through to get rid of any players who might be cultural baggage. A player that doesn't want to be there is definitely cultural baggage.

I would say there's a possibility of a motivated seller

Theoretically but a new coach and a new approach might actually be what gets him to buy in long term and a new coach would back himself to do that. It could actually make them less willing to sell but i acknowledge that could go either way.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If they wait to FA next year that's all they would get based on Crouch to St Kilda who I would say is a similiar level player.

When you finish in the bottom 4 better off taking the pick this year for a player that doesn't want to be there. Get a year development in a new kid and bank the cap space for the future.

All it takes is one club next year to offer hopper the money amon is getting and they get band 2 compo at work. Therefore any club (not just us) offering only an end of R1 pick now probably isnt that attractive an offer to them.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Theoretically but a new coach and a new approach might actually be what gets him to buy in long term and a new coach would back himself to do that. It could actually make them less willing to sell but i acknowledge that could go either way.

Yeah, but that also makes it either/or

He either goes to wherever he wants on any reasonable trade or he stays

 

[Sttew]

For what it’s worth (he’d be stupid to say anything else at this stage) but Esava is quoted in the Addy today saying he can’t imagine being at another club.

A lot can change between now and trace time but it does sound a bit firmer than just saying what needs to be said. He’s sounds genuinely connected to the club and invested.

Maybe a pre season working with Taylor and Egan can help him develop his defensive skills. He’s always seemed like a great person who has some great connections at the club.

Think Zac Guthrie. 12 months ago you’d be laughed at if you said he was in the best 22, and I think he is now

 

[catempire]

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​
Western Bulldogs​	Marcus​	Bontempelli​	27​	CD_I297373​	Inside Midfield​
Western Bulldogs​	Tom​	Liberatore​	30​	CD_I290799​	Inside Midfield​
Melbourne​	Clayton​	Oliver​	25​	CD_I996701​	Inside Midfield​
Collingwood​	Jack​	Crisp​	29​	CD_I293871​	Inside Midfield​
Essendon​	Zach​	Merrett​	27​	CD_I992016​	Inside Midfield​

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​
GWS Giants​	Harry​	Himmelberg​	26​	CD_I993107​	KEY_DEFENDER​
West Coast Eagles​	Jeremy​	McGovern​	30​	CD_I294859​	KEY_DEFENDER​
Hawthorn​	James​	Sicily​	27​	CD_I297566​	KEY_DEFENDER​
Collingwood​	Jeremy​	Howe​	32​	CD_I291313​	KEY_DEFENDER​
GWS Giants​	Sam​	Taylor​	23​	CD_I1005247​	KEY_DEFENDER​

*Himmelberg has some games that should be categorised as Key defender still under Key Forward, next player in would be Ben McKay

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​
Richmond​	Tom J.​	Lynch​	30​	CD_I293813​	KEY_FORWARD​
Adelaide Crows​	Taylor​	Walker​	32​	CD_I280506​	KEY_FORWARD​
Geelong Cats​	Jeremy​	Cameron​	29​	CD_I293845​	KEY_FORWARD​
Carlton​	Charlie​	Curnow​	25​	CD_I996731​	KEY_FORWARD​
Sydney Swans​	Lance​	Franklin​	35​	CD_I240399​	KEY_FORWARD​

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​
St Kilda​	Jack​	Sinclair​	27​	CD_I994389​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​
Carlton​	Adam​	Saad​	28​	CD_I295461​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​
Geelong Cats​	Tom​	Stewart​	29​	CD_I291800​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​
North Melbourne​	Aaron​	Hall​	32​	CD_I296735​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​
Western Bulldogs​	Bailey​	Dale​	26​	CD_I996708​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​	Games​
Richmond​	Noah​	Cumberland​	21​	CD_I1009308​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	7​
Hawthorn​	Dylan​	Moore​	23​	CD_I1006314​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	16​
Fremantle​	Sam​	Switkowski​	26​	CD_I992059​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	11​
Port Adelaide​	Kane​	Farrell​	23​	CD_I1002253​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	8​
Hawthorn​	Luke​	Breust​	32​	CD_I280744​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	21​
Sydney Swans​	Isaac​	Heeney​	26​	CD_I298539​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	19​
Geelong Cats​	Tyson​	Stengle​	24​	CD_I997230​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	22​
Brisbane Lions​	Cam​	Rayner​	23​	CD_I1002235​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	9​
Brisbane Lions​	Charlie​	Cameron​	28​	CD_I990609​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	22​

* lot of players with low match totals

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​
Adelaide Crows​	Jordan​	Dawson​	25​	CD_I992242​	Outside Midfield​
Geelong Cats​	Max​	Holmes​	20​	CD_I1015889​	Outside Midfield​
Sydney Swans​	Errol​	Gulden​	20​	CD_I1013128​	Outside Midfield​
Port Adelaide​	Dan​	Houston​	25​	CD_I994295​	Outside Midfield​
Collingwood​	Steele​	Sidebottom​	31​	CD_I280965​	Outside Midfield​

* very few players play a full year in the role

Team​	First​	Last​	age​	player.player.player.playerId​	Position​	Games​
Port Adelaide​	Jeremy​	Finlayson​	26​	CD_I298111​	RUCK​	10​
Western Bulldogs​	Tim​	English​	25​	CD_I1004592​	RUCK​	15​
Melbourne​	Luke​	Jackson​	21​	CD_I1009399​	RUCK​	20​
Geelong Cats​	Mark​	Blicavs​	31​	CD_I296733​	RUCK​	11​
North Melbourne​	Todd​	Goldstein​	34​	CD_I271129​	RUCK​	22​
Melbourne​	Max​	Gawn​	31​	CD_I290528​	RUCK​	20​
Fremantle​	Sean​	Darcy​	24​	CD_I998145​	RUCK​	19​
Gold Coast Suns​	Jarrod​	Witts​	30​	CD_I291975​	RUCK​	22​
Essendon​	Sam​	Draper​	24​	CD_I1005577​	RUCK​	22​

* Flaw with the model it doesn't adequately record the impact against for a direct opponent

Remind me what the variables are for your ratings?

 

[Lana]

Remind me what the variables are for your ratings?

Use the afl player rating as a base, controlled for game time, player position, opposition difficultly, access to inside midfield rotations

 

[Johanpetro]

Use the afl player rating as a base, controlled for game time, player position, opposition difficultly, access to inside midfield rotations

Aaron Hall being a top 4 medium defender is enough for me to say those rankings are extremely suspect

 

[D BRIDGE]

GWS might actually be happy to have Hopper's contract moved on.

If so, our 1st rounder is solid.

I gotta say though, Hopper has been very ordinary this year. He looks like he is a big-bodied inside or bust kinda guy, without very little pace.

 

[Lana]

Aaron Hall being a top 4 medium defender is enough for me to say those rankings are extremely suspect

This is the kind of bias it is good at undercutting.

When you look into the details, it is easy to see why the system likes him, it goes off Gametime not games, so the two games he was injured at the start aren't skewed against him.

Even with those two games (2% and 43% GT)

24 disposals a game 18 Effective, 600 Metres gained, 10 combine I50 R50. 4.1 Intercept possession to counter his 5.5 Turnovers

with zero exposure to the inside midfield rotations.

While playing in the worst team in the competition.

Times those numbers by 1.16 to approximate the difference between game average and game time average.

 

[Mr Meow]

GWS might actually be happy to have Hopper's contract moved on.

If so, our 1st rounder is solid.

I gotta say though, Hopper has been very ordinary this year. He looks like he is a big-bodied inside or bust kinda guy, without very little pace.

Selwood has had a better year. If he'd had a blinder they'd probably ask for too much though, so that's the gamble the club may be willing to accept.

 

[Johanpetro]

This is the kind of bias it is good at undercutting.

When you look into the details, it is easy to see why the system likes him, it goes off Gametime not games, so the two games he was injured at the start aren't skewed against him.

Even with those two games (2% and 43% GT)

24 disposals a game 18 Effective, 600 Metres gained, 10 combine I50 R50. 4.1 Intercept possession to counter his 5.5 Turnovers

with zero exposure to the inside midfield rotations.

While playing in the worst team in the competition.

Times those numbers by 1.16 to approximate the difference between game average and game time average.

I appreciate the numbers but he’s a seagull who picks up cheap possessions and for it to say he’s even close to one of the best players in his position (especially a defender) is wrong. North fans don’t even rate him

 

[D BRIDGE]

I don't even need to see stats to know that Hopper played like a big bodied plodder this year.

I saw it with my own eyes.

And with Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

(who is a better big-bodied plodder) already in the Giants midfield + the chance that they could need cap relief & they had a shocking year... It makes me think that they very well could take our 1st for Hopper.

Honestly though... Unless he gets back to close to his best form, I'd almost be happy to leave it.