Analysis Hawks 2022 Hypothetical trades (read the pinned post)

[Strapping Young Lad]

Firstly, the "No Kane Cornes

Kane Cornes

Age

41

Ht

183cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.5

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

11.0

5star

M

5.2

5star

T

3.3

5star

CL

2.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.2

3star

" Rule is back

 

[Bugs1977]

Oh dear. How long until free agency / trade period MrPremiership?



Edit: Crap you beat me by 6 minutes + 1 post

 

[Spanish Sahara]

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Either Bruhn and Henry would have been good fits for us. Billyc is right though, we do need a superstar or 2.

 

[Peerless Pete]

If they give us a future fourth they also get to keep the McStay compensation and not lose points in a fruitless pick swap. This is my point - we hold no trump cards in this battle and the Lions will have higher priorities than Gunston.

True, but my point is why would we accept a future fourth in a trade which has virtually no benefit to us and a massive upside for the Lions. If they decide they really want to bring Jack in and they need to trade with us to protect the McStay compo, then it should be a mutually beneficial trade. I would rather lose Jack for nothing than do a trade purely to give the Lions a leg up while giving us nothing in return. And yes, if they have higher priorities than Jack ,then the whole discussion is redundant. I'm basing my comments on them being in the window and wanting a class fwd to replace McStay.

 

[TDS7]

Here's a new one, a non-dgb mega trade scenario for pick 2, Duursma, Amon, and potentially another 1st/2nd. Very pie-in-the-sky, but it's something new and not completely insane:

Hawthorn:
Out
Pick 6
Pick 24
Pick 49
Future HAW 2nd
Brockman

In
Pick 2
Duursma (or Bergman)
Amon
Gunston Comp


West Coast:
Out
Pick 2
Junior Rioli
Future WCE 2nd

In
Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

23

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

Tyler Brockman
Pick 41


Port Adelaide:
Out
Karl Amon

10

Karl Amon

Age

29

Ht

181cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.8

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

294.5

4star

D

21.0

5star

K

15.0

5star

HB

6.0

3star

M

6.0

5star

T

2.0

3star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

146.8

3star

Duursma/Bergman
Pick 8

In
Junior Rioli
Pick 24
Pick 49
Future MEL 1st
Future HAW 2nd
Future WCE 2nd


Melbourne:
Out
Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

23

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

Pick 41
Future MEL 1st

In
Pick 6
Pick 8


Then, we let Gunston walk as a free agent and collect his compensation pick. Hopefully, Brisbane miss on Dunkley and they spend the big bucks on Gunner, and we get pick 6+7, but more likely we get an extra 2nd round pick. This ruins the McStay compo, but I'm not sure how much he will get with the Pies in a pretty tight cap bind and **** it, trade hypothetical. We "trade" for Amon to skip the FA provision, pick up Duursma/Bergman and hopefully upgrade pick 6 to 2 in the process.

I realize this trade is woefully imbalanced, but it's better than 6+DGB for 2 for all eternity.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Tell me again how you don’t understand Free Agency, points for father sons and how Gunstons got no value because “you said so”
Facts don’t lie and you don’t know what you’re talking about.

Okay, here goes. Let's say Dunkley nominates the Lions and they want sufficient points for a likely bid on Ashcroft at pick 1 and let's say Fletcher at pick 25 as I mentioned before. This requires 2,400 points (3,000 points plus 20% discount) for Ashcroft and 559 points for Fletcher (756 - 197 fixed discount). That is 2,959 points - which would baiscally be their current haul of picks (2,086) plus the likely McStay compensation bid (roughly 900 points depending on AFL formula BS and ladder finish). Dunkley will at least cost them next year's first from the Bulldogs in this event - so any points deficit is going to hit them hard. So in this scenario - do you really think it is feasible to then go apply the screws to the Lions in trade talks for Gunston or do you think they would baulk at that and move on to more pressing deals for players with far more years to offer than Gunston?

In addition to this - clubs don't generally **** around with players in Gunston's position - let alone when you consider what he has been through late this year. As I have said, I don't mind us getting aggressive with particular trades but I doubt we would win many admirers for dicking Gunston around if he wanted to head north.

So in this scenario what do you honestly see the Lions giving us to secure Gunston? Come on - you've had your tantrums and name calling, what do you think we will get out of him? Clearly you have strong feelings on this you're not willing to share - join the fun of the hypotheticals.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

True, but my point is why would we accept a future fourth in a trade which has virtually no benefit to us and a massive upside for the Lions. If they decide they really want to bring Jack in and they need to trade with us to protect the McStay compo, then it should be a mutually beneficial trade. I would rather lose Jack for nothing than do a trade purely to give the Lions a leg up while giving us nothing in return. And yes, if they have higher priorities than Jack ,then the whole discussion is redundant. I'm basing my comments on them being in the window and wanting a class fwd to replace McStay.

So you would rather lose him for nothing than get a fourth round pick? Have you seen the number of quality players who have been picked in the 50s and 60s? That is cutting off your nose to spite your face territory - thankfully list managers are more pragmatic. Getting a fourth round pick is absolutely preferential to losing him for nothing.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Either Bruhn and Henry would have been good fits for us. Billyc is right though, we do need a superstar or 2.

This is why I hope we did some kind of due diligence on JDG. We would have the cap space to entice him - for a side that lacks genuine A-graders at present he would be a huge boost on the field. Then use the Clarko savings now that he is at Norf and get that soft cap working on some minders to keep him on the leash.

 

[Ashman23]

So, after listening to Diverfield not wish to talk to or about Ginnivan on SEN earlier and come across as major salty, I'm convinced we need young Jack in the Brown and Gold.

Future fourth. Get it done MM, let the Geelong rivalry continue to burn bright.

 

[butlers hawks]

I step away to watch the Dodgers game and come back to the line in the sand game going on in here. What happened?

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Free Agency period starts in 15 days!

God might hibernate for a while... that's ages off !!

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I step away to watch the Dodgers game and come back to the line in the sand game going on in here. What happened?

Was going to say see you in the NLCS but the Mets are spluttering late season like clockwork

 

[BurnaHawks]

Because Brisbane would laugh and walk. If McKenzie gave away a late first/early second for a 31 year old player you’d be calling for his head. That kind of pick is what we paid for Gunston 11 years ago.

That actually works for us them we keep him

No, I'm not. I'm just pointing out that there is an advantage to Brisbane if they trade for Gunston and I don't see why we should accept a crappy late pick in a trade which has little benefit to us and a significant benefit to Brisbane. If Brisbane can take Gunston as a FA and strike a better deal for points elsewhere that will also make up for missing out on the McStay pick, all power to them. But if they can't do that and want to trade for Gunston then it should be a trade that benefits both parties. And as I said, trading pick 15 for 24 and 50 means nothing to Brisbane this year as all they care about is how many points they end up with. I'm not sure what's so hard to understand about that.

I absolutely agree but give them pick 49 this year to help their points. Ask for their first-round pick next year.

 

[BurnaHawks]

If they give us a future fourth they also get to keep the McStay compensation and not lose points in a fruitless pick swap. This is my point - we hold no trump cards in this battle and the Lions will have higher priorities than Gunston.

higher priorities than Gunston. Who is playing McStay’s role if not Gunston. He will kick 40 goals next year and be the Lions most consistent key forward.

He is high on their priorities. There is window in wide open.

 

[Iceman!]

Brisbane are trading for Dunkley by the sounds of it and need points to match the FS bid and some think we will get the Lions first by giving them a few points… they will be so disappointed in a couple weeks

 

[KermitJagger]

I don’t necessarily disagree with you, however I’ve seen and heard enough (outside of here which is next level cray at the moment), to believe we’re looking at bringing in some mature talent as well as hitting the draft hard.

Regardless of what happens, we have already moved on 7 this off-season which will almost certainly be 9-10 in a couple of weeks time. Whatever happens wholesale changes are happening regardless, and for the third year in a row we move on almost a quarter of our list (30 and counting total in this period).

I guess the difference is wholesale changes to the core of the team Vs. the fringes. For all the delisting that took place I can't really say much bothered me, nor did it really impact the core of what we're trying to build. There are just a lot of comments around needing to do insane things to make movement happen.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Brisbane are trading for Dunkley by the sounds of it and need points to match the FS bid and some think we will get the Lions first by giving them a few points… they will be so disappointed in a couple weeks

But all we need to do is play hardball. It's just that simple!

 

[Ned Ryerson]

higher priorities than Gunston. Who is playing McStay’s role if not Gunston. He will kick 40 goals next year and be the Lions most consistent key forward.

He is high on their priorities. There is window in wide open.

So you're saying that a team that is often criticised for playing too tall would prioritise replacing a forward who averages less than a goal per game more than potentially adding Ashcroft and Dunkley to their midfield?

 

[play2win]

For those quoting player salaries. Iirc the average player salary is currently around $330k, with the new media rights deal, this average will increase to around $500k pa fwiw.

 

[leathaleigh3]

I cannot be convinced that the difference in possible quality between the 3rd best player in the whole country and the 6th best warrants such a price.

Of course the difference can be great, look at the year mccluggage was draft and sps was drafted at 6

 

[KermitJagger]

Of course the difference can be great, look at the year mccluggage was draft and sps was drafted at 6

That's funny, I didn't think they were in season for another month or two.

 

[eldorado]

Of course the difference can be great, look at the year mccluggage was draft and sps was drafted at 6

Yes.

Yes, it can.

Well done.

 

[Off The Couch]

There’s going to be some very disappointed people if Gunston leaves with no more than a blessing - Personally I’m hoping he stays and

DGB goes nowhere and is having a great break with no care in the world about being traded (although I think Burton thought the same)

 

[MasterSamurai]

I don't want Gunston to leave, but for the sanity of big footy bandwidth can he PLEASE just come out and nominate the lions in one hot minute!!!??!!!

 

[Brant]

Shouldn't we start to see a few new accounts & some re-badged 'burner' or alias accounts popping up about now?