Analysis Hawks 2022 Hypothetical trades (read the pinned post)

[Strapping Young Lad]

Firstly, the "No Kane Cornes

Kane Cornes

Age

41

Ht

183cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.5

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

11.0

5star

M

5.2

5star

T

3.3

5star

CL

2.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.2

3star

" Rule is back

 

[HeHateMe]

Considering the crazy money for average players getting thrown around, and the amount of 5, 6 and 7 year deals..........i can't stress enough how great we've done in landing Amon for a 4 year deal at 650k. Especially as there were 4 other clubs in the market

its not 650k

All I've heard reported is its around 700k and the media always seem to round up so I'd guess it's in the 650-700k range.

Is it actually higher?

 

[butlers hawks]

It was a question, not a theory. The point being is it would likely be easier to get 3 than 2 and that doing so might not affect who we pick.

I do agree with that part yes

 

[Spanish Sahara]

Maybe he sees some opportunity for inside minutes with Dunkley out the door

 

[Peerless Pete]

Are you deliberately being difficult?

No, I'm not. I'm just pointing out that there is an advantage to Brisbane if they trade for Gunston and I don't see why we should accept a crappy late pick in a trade which has little benefit to us and a significant benefit to Brisbane. If Brisbane can take Gunston as a FA and strike a better deal for points elsewhere that will also make up for missing out on the McStay pick, all power to them. But if they can't do that and want to trade for Gunston then it should be a trade that benefits both parties. And as I said, trading pick 15 for 24 and 50 means nothing to Brisbane this year as all they care about is how many points they end up with. I'm not sure what's so hard to understand about that.

 

[Ballsontheline]

No, I'm not. I'm just pointing out that there is an advantage to Brisbane if they trade for Gunston and I don't see why we should accept a crappy late pick in a trade which has little benefit to us and a significant benefit to Brisbane. If Brisbane can take Gunston as a FA and strike a better deal for points elsewhere that will also make up for missing out on the McStay pick, all power to them. But if they can't do that and want to trade for Gunston then it should be a trade that benefits both parties. And as I said, trading pick 15 for 24 and 50 means nothing to Brisbane this year as all they care about is how many points they end up with. I'm not sure what's so hard to understand about that.

SPOT ON!! I AGREE.

Very easy to understand this. They either come to an agreement of both parties being happy or they miss out on the McStay compo.

It's not that hard.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

No, I'm not. I'm just pointing out that there is an advantage to Brisbane if they trade for Gunston and I don't see why we should accept a crappy late pick in a trade which has little benefit to us and a significant benefit to Brisbane. If Brisbane can take Gunston as a FA and strike a better deal for points elsewhere that will also make up for missing out on the McStay pick, all power to them. But if they can't do that and want to trade for Gunston then it should be a trade that benefits both parties. And as I said, trading pick 15 for 24 and 50 means nothing to Brisbane this year as all they care about is how many points they end up with. I'm not sure what's so hard to understand about that.

If the Lions need to points match for Ashcroft at pick 1 and let's say Fletcher at pick 25 they will need a combined ~3,00 points. They may also need to trade for Dunkley. McStay compensation pick, best case end of round 1, possibly nets them a total of 900ish points. They presently only have 2,086 points as it is and may want to upgrade rookies or take other picks in the draft (they have a possible 3rd f/s in this draft also). This points total diminishes if they end up winning this week and even moreso if they win next week as well. There are other sides they would be able to split their higher picks with and get far better points outcomes (Suns for example) - our offer of a mere 50 points isn't going to have them scrambling to pull the trigger.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

SPOT ON!! I AGREE.

Very easy to understand this. They either come to an agreement of both parties being happy or they miss out on the McStay compo.

It's not that hard.

Or they walk on the Gunston deal if we be dicks about it and ask for a batshit trade when they can easily do pick swaps live on trade night like the Bulldogs and Collingwood can next year. Honestly if Dunkley nominates them then Gunston will be the least of their trade period worries.

 

[Flukey!]

My head hurts..

 

[TheFourPillars]

All I've heard reported is its around 700k and the media always seem to round up so I'd guess it's in the 650-700k range.

Is it actually higher?

No much lower than that the figures in the media are never accurate most of the time they are atleast a 100k off

 

[Mojo]

You're under-selling it, mate. The list of free agents who have moved clubs in the last 4-5 years who are better than Amon is pretty short. Arguably come out to one (sometimes 0) per year.

And if you really read my post as 'our work is done', you might want to calm down and read it a bit more slowly and charitably. Heaps to play out.

Last year, O'Brien and Ceglar left while Lynch came in. Picks shuffled slightly.

Year before Smith went out, Hartigan and Phillips came in and some shrewd draft night trading landed Collingwood's future 2nd (CMac) and let us take Brockman from under WCs nose.

Year before that, we picked up Frost (future 2nd and pick shuffle) and Patton, lost Birch and Pittonet.

Not to turn this into an autopsy of past periods, but to show that Amon arriving as a FA is probably the most significant player movement win the club has had in quite a while and not something to downplay just because it's been in the open for ages.

Sorry my man. I didn’t mean to offend you.

 

[MrPremiership]

its not 650k

I would think its much lower, which makes it an even more incredible acquisition. But just going with consensus of what was reported

 

[HeHateMe]

No much lower than that the figures in the media are never accurate most of the time they are atleast a 100k off

Nice! I was going to comment that 600k per year for a best 18/22 Free agent through their late 20s is very fair. If we are paying 650k id be happy with it, if it's 600k or less, I'm ecstatic.

 

[Dewnior]

I know we are fixated on trying to prise out pick 2 from WCE (or MFC) but surely it would be easier to get 3 from GWS, given how many first round picks they will have.

Hopefully the club is talking to both WC and GWS about picks 2 & 3

 

[Alsmypal]

Or they walk on the Gunston deal if we be dicks about it and ask for a batshit trade when they can easily do pick swaps live on trade night like the Bulldogs and Collingwood can next year. Honestly if Dunkley nominates them then Gunston will be the least of their trade period worries.

Still the Gunston points debate rages on after about thirty pages. Aren’t you tired of people mentioning the points and you saying Gunston a fourth?
Thought it was done but here we are again. Neither of you know what’s going to happen so stop repeating the same thing over and over.

 

[Jazzfan]

No, I'm not. I'm just pointing out that there is an advantage to Brisbane if they trade for Gunston and I don't see why we should accept a crappy late pick in a trade which has little benefit to us and a significant benefit to Brisbane. If Brisbane can take Gunston as a FA and strike a better deal for points elsewhere that will also make up for missing out on the McStay pick, all power to them. But if they can't do that and want to trade for Gunston then it should be a trade that benefits both parties. And as I said, trading pick 15 for 24 and 50 means nothing to Brisbane this year as all they care about is how many points they end up with. I'm not sure what's so hard to understand about that.

They need to satisfy Dogs for Dunkley mate. And keep enough points for Ashcroft and maybe Fletcher.

We're getting nothing of value for Gunston as a draft pick mate.

Club's not going to play hardball on Gunston for all he's given and if he needs a move interstate to see out his career following a breakdown of relationship and loss of his father.

Perhaps we can identify a young player on the peripheral to come our way.... Robertson would be ideal if Dunkley is heading to Lions. Maybe the younger Berry.

Lohmann would fill a need as a small forward with upside, could we package Gunston and another pick in the 30s for him? Doubt it, but he's also unlikely to play much in 2023.

 

[HairyO]

No much lower than that the figures in the media are never accurate most of the time they are atleast a 100k off

Exactly. It may be $650k in Year 1 because we have cap space then drops to $550k for the next 3 and the media just go with "4 x $650k".

Or they simply make it up and are as accurate as callers to SEN.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Still the Gunston points debate rages on after about thirty pages. Aren’t you tired of people mentioning the points and you saying Gunston a fourth?
Thought it was done but here we are again. Neither of you know what’s going to happen so stop repeating the same thing over and over.

You going to police the DGB for Pick 2 conversation as well or have I done something specifically to upset you? Feel free to patronise someone else as I can freely do whatever the **** I like on here until such time a moderator asks me not to. Being that I am talking about hypotheticals in the hypothetical thread I doubt I am running afoul of the rules.

 

[Peerless Pete]

If the Lions need to points match for Ashcroft at pick 1 and let's say Fletcher at pick 25 they will need a combined 3,004 points. They may also need to trade for Dunkley. McStay compensation pick, best case end of round 1, possibly nets them a total of 900ish points. They presently only have 2,086 points as it is and may want to upgrade rookies or take other picks in the draft (they have a possible 3rd f/s in this draft also). This points total diminishes if they end up winning this week and even moreso if they win next week as well. There are other sides they would be able to split their higher picks with and get far better points outcomes (Suns for example) - our offer of a mere 50 points isn't going to have them scrambling to pull the trigger.

You need to forget this business about 50 points, that trade was actually 50 points in Hawthorns favour. The overall point was that if they do that trade they keep the MCStay compo, possibly 948 points, so they're better off by about 900 points through trading with Hawthorn. The suns have lots of picks, but how much are they going to pay to move up the draft order from 25 to 15. They have picks 25 and 33 which together are worth more than pick 15 by about 217 points. For the Suns deal to be better for Brisbane than trading with the hawks then the suns would need to part with picks 25, 32, 33 and 43, just to move up to to pick 15. This all assumes that Brisbane definitely want to bring Gunston in and that McStay gets an end of first round compo pick. But even if it's an end of second round for McStay, then the suns would still need to part with 25,32 and 51 to be a better deal than trading with the hawks.

 

[Alsmypal]

You going to police the DGB for Pick 2 conversation as well or have I done something specifically to upset you? Feel free to patronise someone else as I can freely do whatever the * I like on here until such time a moderator asks me not to. Being that I am talking about hypotheticals in the hypothetical thread I doubt I am running afoul of the rules.

Yeah you feel the need to post every time someone brings up something you don’t see as being doable but have already shown you effectively know nothing.
You couldn’t work out Brisbane have to points match or go in to defecit and flip flop now that you’ve finally realised they do. (After being it pointed out to you repeatedly).
People put up hypotheticals and you shite all over them.
I’ve never said DGB is leaving but you spouting shite for thirty odd pages is so fn tiresome to read.
Like I said just because you can post and like the sound of your own opinions doesn’t mean you should. I’ve attached the table for you again champ. Sound like a condescending campaigner.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

You need to forget this business about 50 points, that trade was actually 50 points in Hawthorns favour. The overall point was that if they do that trade they keep the MCStay compo, possibly 948 points, so they're better off by about 900 points through trading with Hawthorn.

If they give us a future fourth they also get to keep the McStay compensation and not lose points in a fruitless pick swap. This is my point - we hold no trump cards in this battle and the Lions will have higher priorities than Gunston.

 

[killerspud]

You realise this thread is only 4 pages long without all the DGB/6 for 2 and Gunston compo stuff

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Yeah you feel the need to post every time someone brings up something you don’t see as being doable but have already shown you effectively know nothing.
You couldn’t work out Brisbane have to points match or go in to defecit and flip flop now that they do. (After being it pointed out to you repeatedly).
People put up hypotheticals and you shite all over them.
I’ve never said DGB is leaving but you spouting shite for thirty odd pages is so fn tiresome to read.
Like I said just because you can post and like the sound of your own opinions doesn’t mean you should. I’ve attached the table for you again champ.

 

[Mercy Seat]

For the past two years, Collingwood have been seen as some of the biggest losers of trade period and are now in the top 4.

St Kilda, Essendon and Carlton have been "winning" trade period for years now but doing absolutely nothing. Even for us, we've had a bunch of high turnover and aggressive trade periods but how many have made us better?

The only talk of being aggressive at the trade table is coming from here and from reporters who appear to have NFI and appear to be throwing darts. The only thing we know for certain is that the club wants to take a certain amount of picks inside the top 30 over a multiple year period, which we've already started.

Maybe I'm alone in thinking this, but making wholesale changes at the end of every season isn't good for a club. We need players to have a sense of security and continuity in their roles more than anything.

The hand wringing about not being active enough needs to simmer down.

I don’t necessarily disagree with you, however I’ve seen and heard enough (outside of here which is next level cray at the moment), to believe we’re looking at bringing in some mature talent as well as hitting the draft hard.

Regardless of what happens, we have already moved on 7 this off-season which will almost certainly be 9-10 in a couple of weeks time. Whatever happens wholesale changes are happening regardless, and for the third year in a row we move on almost a quarter of our list (30 and counting total in this period).

 

[Alsmypal]

Tell me again how you don’t understand Free Agency, points for father sons and how Gunstons got no value because “you said so”
Facts don’t lie and you don’t know what you’re talking about.

 

[MrPremiership]

Free Agency period starts in 15 days!