How will the 2016 Federal Election pan out?

[The Speaker]

You lost me a little here, but I'm not fully across the impact of Senate terms and a DD. From what Cormann was saying it seems that people will vote 1-6 ATL or 1-12 BTL. If there remains a desire for people to vote non-major party in the Senate and that trend continues generally I guess the impact of the new rules is a bunch of people will have a vote that never gets counted because the micro-party they've chosen won't ever channel enough preferences to one group because it stops at 6? And presumably the deal-making that goes on will see the majors working hard to get themselves in the top 6 of the major micro parties (a Stephen Mayne type or something) so that they might make an extra quota, but then they'll have little to bargain with as their preferences stop at 6 too...?

It's all a bit confusing to me. I still feel the way the Senate played out this election was nowhere near as bad as feared and so the impetus for change doesn't appear to be there. It's just the Libs taking advantage of Ricky Muir's surprise elevation and the apparent confusion caused by the Liberal Democrat Party (Leyonhjelm) being 1st on the NSW Senate ballot.

In a DD, half of the Senators elected for the states are only elected for three years. These are the Senators elected from 7-12.

Let's use South Australia as an example, with first preference votes as follows:

Lib: 28
NXT: 26
ALP: 24
Grn: 10.5
Oth: 11.5

The order of election will be this, with the remaining votes in brackets

1. Liberal (20.3)
2. Xenophon (18.3)
3. Labor (16.3)
4. Liberal (12.6)
5. Xenophon (10.6)
6. Labor (8.6)
7. Liberal (4.9)
8. Xenophon (2.9)
9. Greens (2.8)
10. Labor (0.9)
11. Liberal/minor party
12. Xenophon/Greens/minor party

So, the six elected for a full term will be 2 Lib, 2 Xen and 2 Lab, while the six elected for a half term will be 1/1/1/1 and two unknowns.

Now, imagine this in other states. With no Xenophon to take a massive share of the vote (although his party could nab a Senate seat somewhere else, just not on first pref), the first six are likely to be 3 from the Coalition, 2 from Labor and 1 from the Greens or 3 and 3 for the majors.

Let's say the Christian Democrats and Shooters and Fishers take advantage of their larger minor party vote share in NSW and get the last two Senate seats (unlikely, but for the sake of the exercise let's assume it). They would be elected at 11 and 12. The NSW election would look something like:

1. Liberal
2. Labor
3. National
4. Labor
5. Liberal
6. Labor
7. Liberal
8. Labor
9. Greens
10. National
11. Christian Democrats
12. Shooters & Fishers

So, at the 2019 half-Senate election, the seats up for grabs would be 2 Coalition, 1 Labor, 1 Greens, 1 CDP, 1 S&F, and the replacements will probably be 3 Coalition, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. Copy this across the board, and the crossbench goes from 18 to about 8.

 

[Maggie5]

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...-ahead-of-early-election-20160320-gnmy2v.html
"Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has announced he will bring the budget forward a week, setting the scene for a rare double dissolution election on July 2 unless the Senate passes laws to reintroduce the construction industry watchdog."

Looks like we we be going to vote on July 2, think it is a big gamble Mal is taking.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Optimism has failed, campaign will be about the big bad unions.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Looks like we we be going to vote on July 2, think it is a big gamble Mal is taking.

Hopefully the public kicks Turnbull and his cronies so hard in the balls their grandchildren will be singing soprano. Unfortunately I don't have that much faith in the public to do it though.

 

[Maggie5]

Hopefully the public kicks Turnbull and his cronies so hard in the balls their grandchildren will be singing soprano. Unfortunately I don't have that much faith in the public to do it though.

Actually, I think it may be closer than he will be hoping for. Anyway, I hope so.

 

[sherb]

Hopefully the public kicks Turnbull and his cronies so hard in the balls their grandchildren will be singing soprano. Unfortunately I don't have that much faith in the public to do it though.

If the Australian people re-elect this lot, I will be totally convinced of their stupidity.

 

[madmug]

If the Australian people re-elect this lot, I will be totally convinced of their stupidity.

I think a lot will vote & still be pissed off with both majors.

A negative campaign will fly in the face of what Turnbull has presented through his political life. If he tries the Abbott method, people will be totally confused as to why he is their at all!

The style of campaign will depend on what happens to the ACCB bill & the budget.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

The bill will fail. The recall is election campaign theatre.

 

[Pessimistic]

don't think turnbull is capable of a successful negative campaign.

reinforces the politics isn't really his 'thing'

 

[mellowyellow]

No doubting he'll run a negative campaign as they have no substantive issues to crow about, nor any reform agenda to engage the electorate

 

[rodney hoo]

If the Australian people re-elect this lot, I will be totally convinced of their stupidity.

Be ready for there stupidity after MSM fear campaign and how good the coalition is looking after tax dollars.

It's all BS but it works, I hope I'm wrong but seen it all to often.

 

[Maggie5]

Be ready for there stupidity after MSM fear campaign and how good the coalition is looking after tax dollars.

It's all BS but it works, I hope I'm wrong but seen it all to often.

I actually think that they will continue with Union fear mongering and use the fact that the ABCC bill wasn't passed.

Surely they are not that stupied to still see themselves as the better money managers.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Surely they are not that stupied to still see themselves as the better money managers.

If you repeat a lie often enough soon you'll start believing it yourself. i.e. They've drunken their own kool-aid.

 

[rodney hoo]

I actually think that they will continue with Union fear mongering and use the fact that the ACCB bill wasn't passed.

Surely they are not that stupied to still see themselves as the better money managers.

If you repeat a lie often enough soon you'll start believing it yourself. i.e. They've drunken their own kool-aid.

Ice wolf is on the money and they've had decades of practice at it.

Tear down the unions is all from the USA , the new generation don't reliase what unions did for working class, problem now is they're all bourgeoisie and think they've made it with $600,000 loans.

Re the building unions they are not squeaky clean, it's a tough industry, you get rat bags but the vast majority are there for the workers where as the number of Phoenix building companies that rip off there workers, go broke owing holiday pay etc to their workers then start again under another name is a joke and never looked at.

 

[Hawk Dork]

As it was pointed out by Tony Burke
"All they've got is a scare campaign and Turnballs not very good at it,you got rid of the the guy who was good at it.If thats all youve got why did you get rid of him ?"
(roughly)

 

[Mofra]

I think a lot will vote & still be pissed off with both majors.

Since 75 the major parties' share of the primary vote has fallen at every Federal Election.
Preference deals will determine the outcome

 

[Maggie5]

Ice wolf is on the money and they've had decades of practice at it.

Tear down the unions is all from the USA , the new generation don't reliase what unions did for working class, problem now is they're all bourgeoisie and think they've made it with $600,000 loans.

Re the building unions they are not squeaky clean, it's a tough industry, you get rat bags but the vast majority are there for the workers where as the number of Phoenix building companies that rip off there workers, go broke owing holiday pay etc to their workers then start again under another name is a joke and never looked at.

I think that Lazarus has got the right idea - a federal ICAC that looks at Unions, Banks, Builders etc.

I am beginning to think that only a couple of the Senators might not get back, so maybe very little will change in the Senate and he will end up no better off.

 

[rodney hoo]

I think that Lazarus has got the right idea - a federal ICAC that looks at Unions, Banks, Builders etc.

I am beginning to think that only a couple of the Senators might not get back, so maybe very little will change in the Senate and he will end up no better off.

I honestly think Lazarus has been very good hope he gets back in, total agree with federal ICAC but the coalition never will, I'd let a federal ICAC look at all corruption including politicians abuse of their entitlements.

 

[GreekLunatic]

We nearly as bad as Greece in how many elections we have is any government gonna last 4 years

 

[Ice-Wolf]

We nearly as bad as Greece in how many elections we have is any government gonna last 4 years

They're not meant to.

 

[Pessimistic]

Also will bring down a budget during an faux election campaign. will there be any nasties?

is wide open to accusations when they propose policies "why didn't you include them in the budget? - If you are true to your word, could have put them on the statute books"

ALP just have to say they will broaden the ABCC to look at rorts everywhere - surely the govts got nothing to be worried about

 

[Forward Press]

It's a gamble, but it's a gamble that could pay off handsomely. Shorten and the ALP might gain traction the later the election.

Also as a fan of House of Cards, love this tweet...

 

[Maggie5]

I honestly think Lazarus has been very good hope he gets back in, total agree with federal ICAC but the coalition never will, I'd let a federal ICAC look at all corruption including politicians abuse of their entitlements.

As an aside if anyone has any doubt as to the value of the ABC, they have not been watching C24 today.

All the independent Senators have come out breathing fire, good on them even Madigan who I didn't have much time for is giving it to them. If the media gives them the air time, a couple of very interesting months ahead and I wouldn't want o be in Turnbull's shoes at the monument.

Also giving plenty of air time to the various Ministers although I really have to mute the volume when Cash comes on, her voice just irritates me so much.

 

[Lebbo73]

If the Australian people re-elect this lot, I will be totally convinced of their stupidity.

I agree with you but if your alternative is Labor, you can GAGF.

 

[Maggie5]

I agree with you but if your alternative is Labor, you can GAGF.

If not LNP and not Labor, what is the alternative?