How will the 2016 Federal Election pan out?

[Farm Boy]

I think the Libs (under Turnbull) will win with ease. I am more interested in what will happen after the election. The right of the Liberal party Vs Turnbull, with no restrictions (of election like there is atm) holding them back. I think it will get very nasty. It is inevitable, and should be fun to watch.

 

[CURVE]

I'm expecting The Liberals to remain in Government, but with a reduced majority in the House, perhaps as few as 5,6 or 7 seats. I don't think Nick Xenophon has enough clout to grab more than two seats and that wont be enough to stop the Greens from holding the balance of Power in the Senate.

I'm predicting the next term of government will be more diabolical than the current. We are all in deep sh*t.

 

[JoseMourinho]

I'm predicting the next term of government will be more diabolical than the current. We are all in deep sh*t.

Public Budget in strife with the economy in strife. Yep, you betcha! .

 

[The Speaker]

The next term of government will more than likely be diabolical regardless of which party is in office. They may not even want to win that much.

Two decades of economic growth has made every level of this nation very complacent. It'll be interesting to see what happens when it all comes crashing down.

 

[Gough]

Perhaps we could reverse the process if we stopped blindly following discredited economic theory.

 

[The Speaker]

Perhaps we could reverse the process if we stopped blindly following discredited economic theory.

Yes, but neither major party seems to be able to conceive of doing such a thing.

 

[Lebbo73]

Perhaps we could reverse the process if we stopped blindly following discredited economic theory.

You talking about Keynes, aren't you!

 

[JoseMourinho]

Perhaps we could reverse the process if we stopped blindly following discredited economic theory.

Nope, you're ****ed regardless. Government will be forced to spend more on welfare since the unemployment rate will be up and the average wage will decrease which means tax revenue goes down.

A double whammy!!!!!

It is a forced move when the economy goes south. I'm not sure what you're referring to as being "discredited" because not making surpluses during a boom period is a red flag for too much spending.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

G'day again, guys.

Your economic doom-and-gloom thread is actually over here.

 

[The Speaker]

G'day again, guys.

Your economic doom-and-gloom thread is actually over here.

It's relevant to this thread, thx.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

It's relevant to this thread, thx.

It seems we are doomed to misunderstand each other. I see the thread title as being specifically about the election results. Maybe you see it as being about anything that may happen from 2016 onwards?

There are a bunch of people who have spent every quarter since 2009 declaring the imminent economic downfall of everything and I think it's good that they can discuss that. I just don't want it to hijack another thread, especially given how often those predictions have been wrong.

 

[The Speaker]

It seems we are doomed to misunderstand each other. I see the thread title as being specifically about the election results. Maybe you see it as being about anything that may happen from 2016 onwards?

There are a bunch of people who have spent every quarter since 2009 declaring the imminent economic downfall of everything and I think it's good that they can discuss that. I just don't want it to hijack another thread, especially given how often those predictions have been wrong.

tbf the predictions have been happening this long because the foundations have been weak for that whole time

This far out discussions relating purely to that one night in July/November/December can only go so far. Closer to the election there'll be less chance to stray too far from the upcoming election

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

tbf the predictions have been happening this long because the foundations have been weak for that whole time

Sure, but recessions are cyclical. There will be an economic downturn eventually and everyone will say 'told you so' despite being wrong for 7+ years - statistically pretty bad considering how often recessions come around. The paranoia around China's numbers has been the around even longer. Paranoia about personal debt in Australia and the housing market is relatively new (and warranted given how leveraged individuals are), however there are also plenty of reasons Australia is very different to 2000s USA.

The sort of doom spruiked by some would require a major shake to the global economy and is the same sort of stuff you see in ads online aimed at getting gullible people to invest with whoever is spruiking the impending disaster. Australians lose money to scams like these all the time and that's why I don't like seeing people on here seemingly taking the same angle (which brings us back to the Jose/PR joke). Meds is in these sub-forums regularly declaring doom, but that's because it's part of his roster of catch phrases. Plenty of others refer to it fleetingly, but I think the other thread is better if we want to actually attempt to see if there's a reason for it - or if fellow doom-and-gloomers want to chat about it at length.

No biggie. The threads have gone quiet since the Abbott aliases have disappeared or moved to SRP where they can continue to discuss the dangers of delicious Halal food (thank Allah we don't have to take that crap seriously anymore).

 

[yibbida]

I think Prime Minister Andrews will lose and be our shortest sitting PM ever.....

 

[Pessimistic]

The next term of government will more than likely be diabolical regardless of which party is in office. They may not even want to win that much.

Two decades of economic growth has made every level of this nation very complacent. It'll be interesting to see what happens when it all comes crashing down.

I think Prime Minister Andrews will lose and be our shortest sitting PM ever.....

He has to finish our level crossings first...

 

[Gough]

Seems like Labor has managed to wedge the government quite nicely on education, in the same way as they did at last election, and it's not like the public are going to buy the whole unity ticket crap again.

 

[Hawk Dork]

The unity ticket crap was just to not scare the punters who were already scared of Abbott.
This time round there is no point being united the victory will come from being different and painting Turnball as having the unity ticket with Abbott

 

[Pessimistic]

Talcum has his dd trigger

 

[GreyCrow]

If Labor gets a) within 3-6 seats, b) a possible hung parliament, or c) even an unlikely win, you can be certain that there will be a leadership challenge from Tony Abbott against Malcolm Turnbull. The question is, if a leadership challenge did happen, who will Julie Bishop vote for?


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The winner

 

[GreyCrow]

The next term of government will more than likely be diabolical regardless of which party is in office. They may not even want to win that much.

Two decades of economic growth has made every level of this nation very complacent. It'll be interesting to see what happens when it all comes crashing down.

I can agree with this partially. I also thought with the surplus blowout that the Liberal Coalition were going to struggle if they went at it wrong. There was a feeling around the SA state election that the Liberal Party were being handed a Poisoned Chalice if they defeated Labor. Closure of Holdens, SubCorp etc. Now the Labor Party are still in the Marshall led Libs don't say boo

 

[Run n Spread]

Upset on the cards. Labor have developed a lot more energy, have got a new campaign director, using the media better and selling their message. Liberals look old and stale. Shorten while hardly Mr Charisma may be better in debates/interviews in a campaign when he is given time to explain rather than having to catch attention as Opp Leader through 1 or 2 second sound bites. Labor also with Plybersek, Bowen, Albanese et al seem to have a higher profile and more cohesion as opposed to Turnbull waffling away and Morrisson who could talk a meth addict to sleep. Also when put under pressure and forced to defend a stance the conservative response always sounds shrill rather than calm and measured.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

debates

I'm dreading those, we get enough of Turnbull pontificating and admiring the smell of his own farts at press conferences, imagine how annoying he'll get when given extra time at a debate.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

The winner

She's a very good deputy, just ask all her previous leaders.

 

[madmug]

I'm dreading those, we get enough of Turnbull pontificating and admiring the smell of his own farts at press conferences, imagine how annoying he'll get when given extra time at a debate.

He'll only get a couple of minutes for each point he presents. So he'll either have to speak much quicker, or brush off some of Abbotts 3 word slogans.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

He'll only get a couple of minutes for each point he presents. So he'll either have to speak much quicker, or brush off some of Abbotts 3 word slogans.

Going by his current track record, he will just say:
"Look, David, the Australian people who are all watching here tonight - who are interested in the future of our country - they aren't interested in [insert Issue here]. They want to talk about the future. About innovation. About the solutions for the future that are innovative, and disruptive, and exciting. It's an exciting future of innovations, and they're sick of negativity. They don't want to talk about [insert Issue here]. And neither do I. And I'm surprised you do. I thought you were better than that. And might I say how wonderful it is here, today, in this fine country - in this beautiful country - to have everyone here watching Democracy in action. Even you Bill. Ha Ha. It's wonderful. It's an exciting day. And an exciting future. How long left? Labor will destroy your house."