Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[Kobe Gryant]

Same as others, got us losing to the Pies & Dockers but winning the other games.

If we pinch one of those (or both) I reckon we drop one of those 'easier games' based on nothing but gut feel, and the nature of this season.

There's upsets every week at the moment, and nobody except Sydney, and recently Carlton, can be backed with any confidence.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I have us most likely finishing 5th, which assumes we lose to Freo and Collingwood but win the rest.

Win one of those and we finish 3rd.

5th for me too but it might be lower if conway and stanley are gone long term.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The one time it would've paid out last year it wouldn't have got you much return too.

Still. I think that's the third hardest in our draw and the only other one I think we'll lose.

despite our issues with tall stocks i dont see the dogs beating us at KP.
Its more likely we lose the pies and freo games.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

despite our issues with tall stocks i dont see the dogs beating us at KP.
Its more likely we lose the pies and freo games.

I have those as losses too, making three

 

[Mr Meow]

I have those as losses too, making three

14 or 15 wins does feel most logical if there's no injury crisis (mainly Dangerfield's health). 13 or 16 would be a little surprising. 12 or 17 would be a shock. Vdubs 10 win mark and I'll close my BigFooty account.

 

[Gavin Excell]

5th for me too but it might be lower if conway and stanley are gone long term.

The Hawks game is key
Win that and we should be OK 5th 6th and a home.final

 

[BigVic]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Sydney	18	5	0	131.8%
2.	Carlton	18	5	0	118.0%
3.	Geelong	17	6	0	122.3%
4.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	1	119.8%
5.	Essendon	14	8	1	101.4%
6.	Hawthorn	14	9	0	105.8%
7.	Port Adelaide	14	9	0	103.7%
8.	Western Bulldogs	13	10	0	115.0%
9.	Gold Coast	12	11	0	103.4%
10.	Collingwood	11	10	2	101.8%
11.	Fremantle	11	11	1	104.3%
12.	GWS	11	12	0	104.4%
13.	Melbourne	11	12	0	97.9%
14.	St Kilda	7	16	0	88.3%
15.	Adelaide	6	16	1	93.9%
16.	West Coast	4	19	0	73.1%
17.	Richmond	4	19	0	70.4%
18.	North Melbourne	4	19	0	69.1%

QF1: SYDNEY v Brisbane Lions
QF2: Carlton v GEELONG
EF1: ESSENDON v Western Bulldogs
EF2: HAWTHORN v Port Adelaide

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Essendon
SF2: Carlton v HAWTHORN

PF1: SYDNEY v Hawthorn
PF2: GEELONG v Brisbane Lions

GF: Sydney v GEELONG




Squiggle ladder predictor got me this

 

[catempire]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Sydney	18	5	0	131.8%
2.	Carlton	18	5	0	118.0%
3.	Geelong	17	6	0	122.3%
4.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	1	119.8%
5.	Essendon	14	8	1	101.4%
6.	Hawthorn	14	9	0	105.8%
7.	Port Adelaide	14	9	0	103.7%
8.	Western Bulldogs	13	10	0	115.0%
9.	Gold Coast	12	11	0	103.4%
10.	Collingwood	11	10	2	101.8%
11.	Fremantle	11	11	1	104.3%
12.	GWS	11	12	0	104.4%
13.	Melbourne	11	12	0	97.9%
14.	St Kilda	7	16	0	88.3%
15.	Adelaide	6	16	1	93.9%
16.	West Coast	4	19	0	73.1%
17.	Richmond	4	19	0	70.4%
18.	North Melbourne	4	19	0	69.1%

QF1: SYDNEY v Brisbane Lions
QF2: Carlton v GEELONG
EF1: ESSENDON v Western Bulldogs
EF2: HAWTHORN v Port Adelaide

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Essendon
SF2: Carlton v HAWTHORN

PF1: SYDNEY v Hawthorn
PF2: GEELONG v Brisbane Lions

GF: Sydney v GEELONG




Squiggle ladder predictor got me this

 

[Vdubs]

1 win to go Dubsy!

Nothing changes current vision like a 45 point win against a top 8 team, now does it!!
Hence, 2 more wins, playing it safe.
I think Hawks, Dogs, Freo, Pies will be losses; others, not sure
Please note, I do have us making the top 8 this year, from the start, but our recent form was dismal enough to suggest that was an optimistic assessment for me.

 

[00VicWard001]

I reckon the dogs are a danger game even though it's at GMHBA

I think we owe them for last year.

 

[Jeff76]

We will beat the Hawks but lose the following 2 against Pies and Dogs. Dogs forward line will destroy our backs, JUH Darcy and Naughton will be way too much for our boys. Then there’s English in the ruck.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[CHAWKTS]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Sydney	18	5	0	131.8%
2.	Carlton	18	5	0	118.0%
3.	Geelong	17	6	0	122.3%
4.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	1	119.8%
5.	Essendon	14	8	1	101.4%
6.	Hawthorn	14	9	0	105.8%
7.	Port Adelaide	14	9	0	103.7%
8.	Western Bulldogs	13	10	0	115.0%
9.	Gold Coast	12	11	0	103.4%
10.	Collingwood	11	10	2	101.8%
11.	Fremantle	11	11	1	104.3%
12.	GWS	11	12	0	104.4%
13.	Melbourne	11	12	0	97.9%
14.	St Kilda	7	16	0	88.3%
15.	Adelaide	6	16	1	93.9%
16.	West Coast	4	19	0	73.1%
17.	Richmond	4	19	0	70.4%
18.	North Melbourne	4	19	0	69.1%

QF1: SYDNEY v Brisbane Lions
QF2: Carlton v GEELONG
EF1: ESSENDON v Western Bulldogs
EF2: HAWTHORN v Port Adelaide

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Essendon
SF2: Carlton v HAWTHORN

PF1: SYDNEY v Hawthorn
PF2: GEELONG v Brisbane Lions

GF: Sydney v GEELONG




Squiggle ladder predictor got me this

I have never worked out how to use squiggle so I did it the manual way! And my ladder results were quite similar...

Well actually was the same top 3 and then quite different from then - so not really similar at all! I had Collingwood, Fred. Suns, Bris and Ess rounding out the 8.

Squiggle must have Essendon beating Collingwood this week?

For squiggle to be right on Freo they need to lose 6 of the next 8. Next two weeks they play Richmond at home and then hawks in Tassie (they could lose that). They also play West Coast and Port at home (and the Cats). I can't see how Freo doesn't win at least 4 which has them battling for top 4 not missing the 8

Equally Squiggle has Collingwood only winning 3 of next 8. The do have a tougher draw except for Richmond. They play Ess, Geelong, Hawks, Carl, Syd, Melb and Lions. I think they would win 5-6 including Richmond? But I suppose they could lose more

 

[allrighty]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Sydney	18	5	0	131.8%
2.	Carlton	18	5	0	118.0%
3.	Geelong	17	6	0	122.3%
4.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	1	119.8%
5.	Essendon	14	8	1	101.4%
6.	Hawthorn	14	9	0	105.8%
7.	Port Adelaide	14	9	0	103.7%
8.	Western Bulldogs	13	10	0	115.0%
9.	Gold Coast	12	11	0	103.4%
10.	Collingwood	11	10	2	101.8%
11.	Fremantle	11	11	1	104.3%
12.	GWS	11	12	0	104.4%
13.	Melbourne	11	12	0	97.9%
14.	St Kilda	7	16	0	88.3%
15.	Adelaide	6	16	1	93.9%
16.	West Coast	4	19	0	73.1%
17.	Richmond	4	19	0	70.4%
18.	North Melbourne	4	19	0	69.1%

QF1: SYDNEY v Brisbane Lions
QF2: Carlton v GEELONG
EF1: ESSENDON v Western Bulldogs
EF2: HAWTHORN v Port Adelaide

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Essendon
SF2: Carlton v HAWTHORN

PF1: SYDNEY v Hawthorn
PF2: GEELONG v Brisbane Lions

GF: Sydney v GEELONG




Squiggle ladder predictor got me this

Where's the predictor? My old brain can't remember

 

[BigVic]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Sydney	19	4	0	140.3%
2.	Geelong	17	6	0	126.3%
3.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	1	125.6%
4.	Carlton	15	8	0	115.3%
5.	Fremantle	13	9	1	105.2%
6.	Essendon	13	9	1	98.6%
7.	GWS	13	10	0	104.9%
8.	Collingwood	12	9	2	102.4%
9.	Hawthorn	13	10	0	97.5%
10.	Melbourne	12	11	0	100.7%
11.	Western Bulldogs	11	12	0	106.8%
12.	Port Adelaide	11	12	0	97.8%
13.	Gold Coast	10	13	0	100.7%
14.	St Kilda	9	14	0	89.8%
15.	Adelaide	6	16	1	91.5%
16.	North Melbourne	5	18	0	75.7%
17.	Richmond	5	18	0	72.8%
18.	West Coast	5	18	0	71.5%

QF1: SYDNEY v Carlton
QF2: GEELONG v Brisbane Lions
EF1: FREMANTLE v Collingwood
EF2: Essendon v GWS

SF1: Carlton v FREMANTLE
SF2: Brisbane Lions v GWS

PF1: SYDNEY v GWS
PF2: GEELONG v Fremantle

GF: Sydney v GEELONG

 

[CatToTheFuture]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Sydney	19	4	0	140.3%
2.	Geelong	17	6	0	126.3%
3.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	1	125.6%
4.	Carlton	15	8	0	115.3%
5.	Fremantle	13	9	1	105.2%
6.	Essendon	13	9	1	98.6%
7.	GWS	13	10	0	104.9%
8.	Collingwood	12	9	2	102.4%
9.	Hawthorn	13	10	0	97.5%
10.	Melbourne	12	11	0	100.7%
11.	Western Bulldogs	11	12	0	106.8%
12.	Port Adelaide	11	12	0	97.8%
13.	Gold Coast	10	13	0	100.7%
14.	St Kilda	9	14	0	89.8%
15.	Adelaide	6	16	1	91.5%
16.	North Melbourne	5	18	0	75.7%
17.	Richmond	5	18	0	72.8%
18.	West Coast	5	18	0	71.5%

QF1: SYDNEY v Carlton
QF2: GEELONG v Brisbane Lions
EF1: FREMANTLE v Collingwood
EF2: Essendon v GWS

SF1: Carlton v FREMANTLE
SF2: Brisbane Lions v GWS

PF1: SYDNEY v GWS
PF2: GEELONG v Fremantle

GF: Sydney v GEELONG

You seem to rate us pretty highly

 

[Mr Meow]

Never had a bet in my life, but basing it purely on current vision, 2.
What about you?

You've completely ran out of wins, Dubsy.

7 games to go. 2 of them against sides in the top 8.

 

[Vdubs]

You've completely ran out of wins, Dubsy.

7 games to go. 2 of them against sides in the top 8.

No way.
Solid believer in OWAAT.
Right now, we can possibly win next week.
I still have us firmly top 8 according to the top page predictions (mainly because changes are not possible, but...)

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I have those as losses too, making three

The pies game is becoming more winnable now mihocek is out and if cameron doesnt get up. That said you never underestimate them they play in bursts.

Coll and Freo are the most likely loss games.
If we play our best we should win the other 5.
Normally 15 wins would get you top 4 but this year its so congested it could be anywhere from 4th to 8th.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The pies game is becoming more winnable now mihocek is out and if cameron doesnt get up. That said you never underestimate them they play in bursts.

Coll and Freo are the most likely loss games.
If we play our best we should win the other 5.
Normally 15 wins would get you top 4 but this year its so congested it could be anywhere from 4th to 8th.

After today I reckon I agree we're a solid shot at the Pies. Stewart starting in the middle has really flipped the table.

I'm even more confused by the dogs. They have so much fire-power out there but they're shooting blanks.

Still don't reckon we beat Freo in Perth

 

[Smelly Catt]

I’m just glad we’re seemingly over that mid season form slump. That was tough.

 

[Mr Meow]

Sounds very unjustified on recent form.
Hawkins should retire, and it looks as if the season can't end quickly enough for many players.

At various points Stewart, Cameron, Dangerfield, Duncan, Rohan, Blicavs and Tuohy looked energised and influential. They can't run full throttle like a few years ago, which is why we need the 21-28 year olds to take more responsibility. When they do so, the veterans look suitably up for it.

Painful as it is to say - we have looked better minus Stanley, Cam Guthrie and Hawkins.

 

[Lana]

At various points Stewart, Cameron, Dangerfield, Duncan, Rohan, Blicavs and Tuohy looked energised and influential. They can't run full throttle like a few years ago, which is why we need the 21-28 year olds to take more responsibility. When they do so, the veterans look suitably up for it.

Painful as it is to say - we have looked better minus Stanley, Cam Guthrie and Hawkins.

I hope that Hawkins pulls a Mooney and accepts that he is done. I worry that Scott can't make the difficult decision. Hawkins should still prepare as if he will be called up the season is unpredictable.

If Guthrie could have gotten some km done in the VFL I wanted him back in the AFL team as a defender though Humphries has since grabbed that spot.

 

[Vdubs]

I hope that Hawkins pulls a Mooney and accepts that he is done. I worry that Scott can't make the difficult decision. Hawkins should still prepare as if he will be called up the season is unpredictable.

If Guthrie could have gotten some km done in the VFL I wanted him back in the AFL team as a defender though Humphries has since grabbed that spot.

Agree totally about the Mooney Hawkins comparison- CS I don't believe will have that issue- it really might come down to whether Neal 24 offers anything like Hawkins 09 did.

 

[Hamingja]

I’m just glad we’re seemingly over that mid season form slump. That was tough.

I think it was about 80% fixture based. Bit of negative variance in close games making up the other 20%.

Start of the year we beat teams we were better than (bonus win against Carlton).

Then we lost to teams better than us or around about our mark (aside from ugly loss to GC).

Then we have played teams that we are better than again we have won our last two.

Hawks have basically been the exact reverse of us with people getting carried away with their winning streak against dross before we have put them back into their place.

 

[Mr Meow]

What a big game we have coming up.

Collingwood will be desperate. If their losing streak extends another week, their season is in serious jeopardy. It will be finals-like intensity from them.

If we can manage to win, our season will once again have some serious momentum and we can consider ourselves right in the pack contending for a top 4 spot.

With a fairly kind fixture list to follow, we may even be odds on to get a top 4 place if we are on the winners list next weekend.