Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[CatToTheFuture]

Couldn't sleep. Picked a main board last predictor thread from start of season and counted the Cats finishing position in the first 100 full ladders plus 11 top 8s which didn't list us as finalists)

Four had us top 4 (shout out rapidfire7 , PizzaPie , Lets Roar like '44 , and MCG-Unit )

Fully 17% had us finishing exactly 14th. 27% had us in the 8 at all. 12% gave us a bottom 4 finish.

Work to do still to make top 4 but top 8 seems a lock. Shows you shouldn't write off good leadership

 

[Vdubs]

About now, having nearly played all teams bar Freo, interesting that against the current top 8, we have 3 wins.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

About now, having nearly played all teams bar Freo, interesting that against the current top 8, we have 3 wins.

3-4, exactly what you expect from a 5th to 8th side.

Going about as expected

 

[Pure_Ownage]

My predictor has us losing to freo, winning the other 4 and finishing 4th and sydney in the 1st week.
If we win freo we get carlton in week 1.

Bris 5th dogs 6th gws and port 7 and 8
(That predictor relies on dogs and port both winning on the road which they dont often do)
Ess and melb/suns to just miss out. Hawks miss out by 1 game also.

 

[Mr Meow]

The second I start to believe we will sneak into the top 4 this season, we have a catastrophic loss. So I am right back to quadrupling down on my pre season prediction of 5th-6th, and no I will not be tricked into raising it to 3rd/4th until we are mathematically locked in.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Looking like a 2-3 week September for us.

Turnover differential top 3 has predicted 17 of last 18 premiers.

Swans +280
Blues +276
Lions +203
Freo +181



Cats +112

We look to be the best of the next rung but well off the best, and with 3 of them being interstate sides I can't see us going past SF week.

 

[Klink]

The second I start to believe we will sneak into the top 4 this season, we have a catastrophic loss. So I am right back to quadrupling down on my pre season prediction of 5th-6th, and no I will not be tricked into raising it to 3rd/4th until we are mathematically locked in.

Completely agree. That's my thinking, too. If we somehow manage to scrape into the 4......well, it really is a reflection on what a strange year it has been and the evenness of the comp. I think we have performed like a 5-6 team overall, it would be fitting to finish there.

Ultimately, given where our list is at, and where we're at in terms of transitioning it, I think if we can make the 8 and win one final it's a successful year. I think many may disagree on that, it really depends on whether people see us as a top 4 team or a 5-9 type of team I guess.

I just can't get my head around us being top 4 quality (we still might finish there) - I think that is a couple of years away personally. Possibly next year if we have a 2015 type of off season trade period which is possible.

 

[cats_09]

 

[dangerwood]

I don't think we are good enough to go deep into finals and could end up wearing a pretty significant loss in a final (similar to 2021).

What I hope for is that some how we manage to pinch a flag. We've never pinched a flag like other teams have managed to when they weren't the best team of the year. Unlikely to happen, but I hope.

 

[Vdubs]

why is Port out of favour?


Apart from their tough run home- SWANS, DEMONS, CROWS AND FREO

 

[Baudolino]

I think our hopes of making top four are on a knifes edge, and we're likely to miss unless we beat Fremantle in Perth, even if we win every other game. I don't think winning 3 of our 4 will be enough given that we're two points behind Brisbane and Fremantle, and Carlton have a very soft run home.

Here's the fixture list for the teams currently around us in the top four race (excluding Sydney who we already know will finish 1st):

2. Brisbane (50 pts) - STK (A), GWS (H), COLL (A), ESS (H)
3. Fremantle (50 pts) - ESS (A), GEE (H), GWS (A), PORT (H)
4. Carlton (48 pts) - COLL (A), HAW (H), WC (A), STK (H)
5. GWS (48 pts) - HAW (H), BRI (A), FRE (H), WB (A)
6. Geelong (48 pts) - ADE (H), FRE (A), STK (A), WC (H)
7. Port Adelaide (48 pts) - SYD (H), MEL (A), ADE (H), FRE (A)

Will be very close and I suspect it comes down to percentage unless there are some major upsets along the way (St Kilda at Etihad looms as a danger game).

Biggest factor in our favour is the fact that, besides Carlton, we have the least difficult draw.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

We have to beat Freo imo.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

why is Port out of favour?


Apart from their tough run home- SWANS, DEMONS, CROWS AND FREO

Port are scrapping to even make the 8 and they have a lot of holes. Although to be fair so does everyone this year.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think our hopes of making top four are on a knifes edge, and we're likely to miss unless we beat Fremantle in Perth, even if we win every other game. I don't think winning 3 of our 4 will be enough given that we're two points behind Brisbane and Fremantle, and Carlton have a very soft run home.

Here's the fixture list for the teams currently around us in the top four race (excluding Sydney who we already know will finish 1st):

2. Brisbane (50 pts) - STK (A), GWS (H), COLL (A), ESS (H)
3. Fremantle (50 pts) - ESS (A), GEE (H), GWS (A), PORT (H)
4. Carlton (48 pts) - COLL (A), HAW (H), WC (A), STK (H)
5. GWS (48 pts) - HAW (H), BRI (A), FRE (H), WB (A)
6. Geelong (48 pts) - ADE (H), FRE (A), STK (A), WC (H)
7. Port Adelaide (48 pts) - SYD (H), MEL (A), ADE (H), FRE (A)

Will be very close and I suspect it comes down to percentage unless there are some major upsets along the way (St Kilda at Etihad looms as a danger game).

Biggest factor in our favour is the fact that, besides Carlton, we have the least difficult draw.

I doubt % matters a lot since freo and bris both have a draw. If we win all 4 we will be 4th at worst (as freo cant pass us then).
I still think 3 will get us 3rd at worst as i dont think freo will beat the giants away and i think bris will drop one of the road games.
Port wont make top 4 with their draw.
3rd if brisbane or carl are 2nd isnt a bad result for us.

 

[Baudolino]

I doubt % matters a lot since freo and bris both have a draw. If we win all 4 we will be 4th at worst (as freo cant pass us then).
I still think 3 will get us 3rd at worst as i dont think freo will beat the giants away and i think bris will drop one of the road games.
Port wont make top 4 with their draw.
3rd if brisbane or carl are 2nd isnt a bad result for us.

Percentage potentially matters against Carlton or GWS or Port, if we win 3 out of 4 and any one of those teams does likewise. I still think we're likely to miss top four if we win 3 out of 4 though. Either because Carlton end up winning all four or because Carlton finish ahead of us on percentage. So beating Freo in Perth will most likely be necessary.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

I don't think we are good enough to go deep into finals and could end up wearing a pretty significant loss in a final (similar to 2021).

What I hope for is that some how we manage to pinch a flag. We've never pinched a flag like other teams have managed to when they weren't the best team of the year. Unlikely to happen, but I hope.

Agree, with our rucks and midfield this could be on the cards.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

We have to beat Freo imo.

I don't think we have the cattle but we aren't zero chance

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I don't think we have the cattle but we aren't zero chance

Freo arent actually that good our biggest issue will be the ruck but outside of that we can get them.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Freo arent actually that good our biggest issue will be the ruck but outside of that we can get them.

They aren't that good but they're better than us. You could get Darcy to swap jumpers and it won't change the strength of their midfield and defence

 

[Lana]

They aren't that good but they're better than us. You could get Darcy to swap jumpers and it won't change the strength of their midfield and defence

Doesn't matter what midfield and aerial deficit we face, it doesn't change our win condition. Its about changing the rules of the game to our advantage. To an extent later 3 peat Hawthorn did it, Richmond did it, Collingwood did it, we got close a few times doing it.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Percentage potentially matters against Carlton or GWS or Port, if we win 3 out of 4 and any one of those teams does likewise. I still think we're likely to miss top four if we win 3 out of 4 though. Either because Carlton end up winning all four or because Carlton finish ahead of us on percentage. So beating Freo in Perth will most likely be necessary.

Yeah true I was just pointing out % doesnt matter against BL or Freo due to the draw. It only matters if you think we will be fighting Carl GWS or Port for 4th. I think Carl will finish 2nd and i dont think Port will be near top 4 (they will be 6th at best with their draw) so it probably doesnt matter except vs gws (in which case we may need to run up a big margin vs WCE in the last round).

I still think we can make top 4 with only 3 wins. Because I think Brisbane will either lose to the Saints at Marvel or Coll at the G. And I think Freo are a good chance to drop the Giants and Port games even if they beat us.
But it will be tight and we have to rely on other results if we lose the Perth game.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

They aren't that good but they're better than us. You could get Darcy to swap jumpers and it won't change the strength of their midfield and defence

My point is if we can nullify the ruck issue in 6-6-6 goals from clearances their defence is very inexperienced (Pearce out injured exposes them) and we can beat them if we score off turnover.
We just play a different tactical game to get around this.
But Blicavs would need to have a whale of a game because Darcy and Jackson could dominate SDK (personally I'd play Stanley vs Freo but we probably wont).

 

[catempire]

They aren't that good but they're better than us. You could get Darcy to swap jumpers and it won't change the strength of their midfield and defence

Yet we’ve won the same number of games.

 

[foxdog50]

I honestly don't think we will win the premiership this year, but this year it's so even, I the way any team can win on there day, as there is more upsets happening all the time

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Yet we’ve won the same number of games.

Fair, and their draw is pretty similar to ours. Still, I feel like they have substantially more to work with and there's a few they've lost they should have won. Same as us i guess. Still if Chris Scott can drag us over the line in this one I'll be pretty shocked