Recommitted Josh Kelly [re-signed]

[TheKanga]

Ace Cannon

I think we could (injuries permitting) play finals in 2019 and ill stick by it.
I think i know what these players are capable of
(Also their weaknesses/where the can improve)
More so than an opposition supporter who are always glossing over and writing off our lists.

Nothing is a given in footy, success isn't guaranteed.
People just assumed Western Bulldogs would romp into top 4 this year.
No one really rated Adelaide as the no.1 side.
Richmond were 13th and now in a prelim.

Next year Richmond should get a much harder draw and could have a 2017 Bulldogs like season.

 

[Royal Flush]

What desperation? I just simply stated my opinion for why I can't see them winning a flag. GWS have often been criticized for their lack of unity. I see the clash of individuality and not seeing eye to eye a possible reason why it could block them from seeing a premiership. If they can fix that up, then they probably will see a flag, maybe even two. If you think different, good for you. So there is no need to jump down my throat.

If Kelly's decision is based purely on success then he would of signed by now. Compare GWS to the other teams after his services. Giants are miles ahead. So having not done so obviously means something else. There is more to it that we may not know. Maybe he just wants the season to finish first (yet Hopper decided before the finals so that would be a pretty stupid reason. It would've taken pressure off his back if he did the same). Most likely it could be based on how far the giants go from here. Besides, do you think he will unhesitatingly say yes to a new deal if they lost the semi this week after doing one better last season? He will most likely have a long hard think about his future after it's all over.

I just pointed out one or two possible reasons for why he is still yet to decide on what he wants to do and then you immediately jump all over me. Yes everyone wants to win a flag, but there can be more to switching clubs than just money or success.

Could somebody kindly translate this ?

On EVA-L09 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TheKanga]

Big 4 club doesnt automatically equal better list.

 

[TheKanga]

It's not. Your list is terrible.
Carltons is better and I hate them, so admitting that is not easy.

KELLY will be a Roo because of money #1, and connection #2.

Would you kindly explain to me the areas Carlton's list is so much better?
Where are we weak compared to them?

 

[Stifler's mom]

Would you kindly explain to me the areas Carlton's list is so much better?
Where are we weak compared to them?

Sure.
Carlton has a better backline, midfield, ruck and forwardline.

Thanks for playing.

 

[Royal Flush]

It's not. Your list is terrible.
Carltons is better and I hate them, so admitting that is not easy.

KELLY will be a Roo because of money #1, and connection #2.

People thought St.Kilda list was a great list, and Richmond's shit at the start of the season.
People think a lot.

On EVA-L09 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TheKanga]

Sure.
Carlton has a better backline, midfield, ruck and forwardline.

Thanks for playing.

Was hoping for something more convincing than that.

Lol Casboult > Brown ?

 

[Groucho]

Sure.
Carlton has a better backline, midfield, ruck and forwardline.

Thanks for playing.

Wow,convinced me.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Odds of Kelly staying at GWS - $6.00
Odds of Kelly being at North in '18 - $1.10

IMHO.


However.........Do North fans really believe it's because JK thinks your list is better than Carlton?

Laughable!

No. I am sure there are a number of factors that would influence Kelly's decision-making. List strength (From best to worst: Essendon, St Kilda Carlton/North (more even than people think, but anyway)), is the club at the start, middle or end of their rebuild or in premiership hunting mode, financial size of the contract, length of the contract, is he homesick and his family connection to the club.

North:

• List strength - Not great, but not as bad as it is made out to be on this board.
• Club stage - Start of the rebuild. At the very least, 2 years off finals, even with Kelly.
• Financial Size - Offered a large contract, no issues here.
• Contract Length - Offered a lot of years, no issue here.
• Homesick - Like the other Victorian clubs in the hunt for Kelly, this is a positive. However, I don't believe homesickness is a major factor with Josh, so I wouldn't give it much weight.
• Strong family connection to the club - Yes and barracked for the club as a kid (this second point is almost moot at this stage).

GWS:

• List Strength - Premiership hunting and one of the strongest in the league.
• Club stage - See above. Has been at the club for a while and has a lot of mates there.
• Financial Size - Around the 800k mark, not as much as Victorian Clubs.
• Contract Length - Two years, could be appealing if he is looking to leave in two years time on even higher coin from a Victorian club.
• Homesick - Goes against GWS of course, but again, I don't think it is a factor here.
• Family connection to the club - No.

Carlton:

• List Strength - Exciting list with plenty of talent on offer. A lot of potential, which is not always fulfilled (looking at you Waite). Kelly won't be an immediate fix (same with North)
• Club stage - Start of the rebuild (slightly ahead in the rebuild timeframe than North). Plenty of exciting youth at Carlton, but like North, they have a few list holes that need filling sooner rather than later.
• Financial Size - Would be similar to North's offer I would imagine.
• Contract Length - Not sure on this point, but this won't be a weak point for Carlton.
• Homesick - Favours Carlton if he is.
• Strong family connection to the club - No, but obviously has the connection to SOS and GWS mates (but this is a rather weak factor in my opinion).

Saints:

• List Strength - A very strong list, with some very promising youth pushing up to replace the experience they are going to lose at the end of the season. Is a finals quality list in my opinion (especially if they add Kelly to the midfield). List strength is a strong point in comparison to North and Carlton.
• Club stage - At the latter stages of a rebuild and should be pushing for finals and premiership contention over the next 2-4 years. This is a strong point in comparison to North and Carlton again.
• Financial Size - Not sure, but I doubt it will be an issue for them.
• Contract Length - Like Carlton, not sure on this front, but I imagine contract length won't be an issue here.
• Homesick - Favours Saints, like all Vic clubs.
• Strong family connection to the club - No

There are a lot of similarities between the North, Carlton and St Kilda pitches to Kelly. List strength is one defining factor, where the club is at in terms of rebuild/premiership pushing and I honestly do believe the family connection angle is another factor to separate North's big offer from the other highly similar big Victorian offers as the family connection is a point of difference and Josh is known as a stronger family man than the average footballer. However, I am still leaning towards GWS keeping him, but I would love him at North, but Kelly to North isn't a sure thing of course.

 

[Bostonian]

Sure.
Carlton has a better backline, midfield, ruck and forwardline.

Thanks for playing.

No.

 

[BLERN]

Odds of Kelly staying at GWS - $6.00
Odds of Kelly being at North in '18 - $1.10

IMHO.


However.........Do North fans really believe it's because JK thinks your list is better than Carlton?

Laughable!

Ummm

 

[Stifler's mom]

Was hoping for something more convincing than that.

Lol Casboult > Brown ?

Curnow, McKay and Pickett all likely to be good / very good.
After Brown, who have you got under 25 that look like being high quality?

Murphy, Gibbs, Cripps, Petrovski-Seton v Cunnington....???

Kreuzer v Goldy / Preuss, no contest.

Weitering, Marchbank and Docherty >>>>> Norths backline.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

A lot of crying by carlton supporters in here. The media rates your team because you collect high draft picks and then the media hands out rising star noms just because they are highly ranked. You went backwards this year. Kelly is smart enough to tlread between the lines and understand North are in a better position than both carlton and st kilda.

Ace Cannon

You do realise your team finished 13th last season? Things can click in an instant. The sense of entitlement by richmond supporters is laughable. Thank christ you haven't had the last decade hawthorn and geelong have had. The competition is very even and if a few things go right you can be in with a real shot.

Oh I've seen many ridiculous posters, but you could just about be the epitome of ridiculousness.

1. First of all, no Carlton supporters are crying here.
2. It's not our fault our youngsters have so far been more promising and therefore recognized for their work.
3. Rather than your short-sighted approach of looking at the ladder and the win-loss ratio, get your head out of the dirt and take a deeper look.
Carlton 2016: 7 Wins (Playing the likes of Kerridge, Phillips, Sumner, Thomas, White and Rowe)
Carlton 2017: 6 Wins (Playing the likes of Marchbank, Pickett, Petrevski-Seton, Cuningham, Fisher, Williamson, Curnow and Silvagni) A big improvement.
4. If Kelly thinks exactly that, then I'd test him for concussion.

Yeah but you're a big footy peasant so your opinion is about as useful as terry wallace's.

Nice to learn that you throw stones from your glass house.

Our list is good. Even across the voard and ready to improve. Get some luck with injuries and North is laughing. Only issue is A-grade talent in midfield (have cunnington). Kelly fits that requirement.

They not long ago kicked out their best experienced heads and have brought in unproven (e.g. Ahern - recovering from his knee) and underwhelming performers (e.g. Anderson). Cunnington? A-grade talent? Spare me! B-grade at best.

If you seriously think people would take Cunnington and whoever else is in your midfield over the likes of Cripps, Gibbs, Murphy, Petrevski-Seton and the Curnows, you need to seek help.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

No. I am sure there are a number of factors that would influence Kelly's decision-making. List strength (From best to worst: Essendon, St Kilda Carlton/North (more even than people think, but anyway)), is the club at the start, middle or end of their rebuild or in premiership hunting mode, financial size of the contract, length of the contract, is he homesick and his family connection to the club.

North:

• List strength - Not great, but not as bad as it is made out to be on this board.
• Club stage - Start of the rebuild. At the very least, 2 years off finals, even with Kelly.
• Financial Size - Offered a large contract, no issues here.
• Contract Length - Offered a lot of years, no issue here.
• Homesick - Like the other Victorian clubs in the hunt for Kelly, this is a positive. However, I don't believe homesickness is a major factor with Josh, so I wouldn't give it much weight.
• Strong family connection to the club - Yes and barracked for the club as a kid (this second point is almost moot at this stage).

GWS:

• List Strength - Premiership hunting and one of the strongest in the league.
• Club stage - See above. Has been at the club for a while and has a lot of mates there.
• Financial Size - Around the 800k mark, not as much as Victorian Clubs.
• Contract Length - Two years, could be appealing if he is looking to leave in two years time on even higher coin from a Victorian club.
• Homesick - Goes against GWS of course, but again, I don't think it is a factor here.
• Family connection to the club - No.

Carlton:

• List Strength - Exciting list with plenty of talent on offer. A lot of potential, which is not always fulfilled (looking at you Waite). Kelly won't be an immediate fix (same with North)
• Club stage - Start of the rebuild (slightly ahead in the rebuild timeframe than North). Plenty of exciting youth at Carlton, but like North, they have a few list holes that need filling sooner rather than later.
• Financial Size - Would be similar to North's offer I would imagine.
• Contract Length - Not sure on this point, but this won't be a weak point for Carlton.
• Homesick - Favours Carlton if he is.
• Strong family connection to the club - No, but obviously has the connection to SOS and GWS mates (but this is a rather weak factor in my opinion).

Saints:

• List Strength - A very strong list, with some very promising youth pushing up to replace the experience they are going to lose at the end of the season. Is a finals quality list in my opinion (especially if they add Kelly to the midfield). List strength is a strong point in comparison to North and Carlton.
• Club stage - At the latter stages of a rebuild and should be pushing for finals and premiership contention over the next 2-4 years. This is a strong point in comparison to North and Carlton again.
• Financial Size - Not sure, but I doubt it will be an issue for them.
• Contract Length - Like Carlton, not sure on this front, but I imagine contract length won't be an issue here.
• Homesick - Favours Saints, like all Vic clubs.
• Strong family connection to the club - No

There are a lot of similarities between the North, Carlton and St Kilda pitches to Kelly. List strength is one defining factor, where the club is at in terms of rebuild/premiership pushing and I honestly do believe the family connection angle is another factor to separate North's big offer from the other highly similar big Victorian offers as the family connection is a point of difference and Josh is known as a stronger family man than the average footballer. However, I am still leaning towards GWS keeping him, but I would love him at North, but Kelly to North isn't a sure thing of course.

Finally, a worthy poster that talks sense.

 

[TheKanga]

Curnow, McKay and Pickett all likely to be good / very good.
After Brown, who have you got under 25 that look like being high quality?

Murphy, Gibbs, Cripps, Petrovski-Seton v Cunnington....???

Kreuzer v Goldy / Preuss, no contest.

Weitering, Marchbank and Docherty >>>>> Norths backline.

We have Ben Mckay, Nick Larkey who are raw but also have promise.
Mason Wood has potential to be a very solid fwd.
Cam Zuuhaar could be anything.
Small fwds Jy Simpkin and Kayne Turner have already proven to be dangerous around goal.

I'd argue Murphy & Gibbs won't be there when Carlton are contending next.
Especially as Gibbs may still pursue a trade.

Cunnington, Ziebell both 26 and can play HF at times.
Ryan Clarke a promising winger.
Declan Mountford has ability.
Dumont

Then we have HF/mid types in

Higgins
Garner

If Goldy can get back into to form he is just as good as Kreuzer.
Preuss is only 21 so has youth.

Backline is where i would give the nod to Carlton at this stage.

 

[Trojan_Saint]

Does anyone else feel that if JK actually read this thread he would go all 'Harold Holt' and just run into the raging sea?

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[Kangaroos4eva]

Does anyone else feel that if JK actually read this thread he would go all 'Harold Holt' and just run into the raging sea?

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He would probably defect into North Korea.

 

[Aramis]

I think Carlton are ready to explode and If I was in Kelly's position and I had decided to leave... I find Carlton the most intriguing prospect....
I think Kelly would round out their list terrifically and they would be a force for the next decade.
Kangaroo's are really just starting their rebuild after last years clean out and i'm not sold on their guys under 24 yet... (Ben Brown being the exclusion to that).
Saints, quite possibly, similar to Carlton a few steps ahead but seem to be failing to fire based on missing finals this year, that only gets harder without Riewoldt and Montagna.

 

[saintsrfreak]

I don't even like Carlton, but it does amaze me that Northies reckon they have better young talent

Preuss
Simpkin
Brown (if a 24 year old counts)
Dumont
McDonald

Vs

SPS
Curnow
Weitering
Marchbank
Cripps
Docherty

Seems like a pretty easy choice

 

[Groin guru]

Oh I've seen many ridiculous posters, but you could just about be the epitome of ridiculousness.

1. First of all, no Carlton supporters are crying here.
2. It's not our fault our youngsters have so far been more promising and therefore recognized for their work.
3. Rather than your short-sighted approach of looking at the ladder and the win-loss ratio, get your head out of the dirt and take a deeper look.
Carlton 2016: 7 Wins (Playing the likes of Kerridge, Phillips, Sumner, Thomas, White and Rowe)
Carlton 2017: 6 Wins (Playing the likes of Marchbank, Pickett, Petrevski-Seton, Cuningham, Fisher, Williamson, Curnow and Silvagni) A big improvement.
4. If Kelly thinks exactly that, then I'd test him for concussion.



Nice to learn that you throw stones from your glass house.



They not long ago kicked out their best experienced heads and have brought in unproven (e.g. Ahern - recovering from his knee) and underwhelming performers (e.g. Anderson). Cunnington? A-grade talent? Spare me! B-grade at best.

If you seriously think people would take Cunnington and whoever else is in your midfield over the likes of Cripps, Gibbs, Murphy, Petrevski-Seton and the Curnows, you need to seek help.

Means nothing. North debuted more kids and had the most games missed due to injury in the league and:

1) still beat you
2) still finished higher than you

You clearly haven't seen much of North and you list all of your drafted kids but then highlight two players North traded in.

Cunnington has proved more than all of those listed. Once again you are basing it on potential. Carlton supporters of all people should understand potential doesn't automatically equal fulfillment. Not a poster alive would take gibbs or murphy over cunnington.

Going to be very funny when North finish higher than your team again. At least you have some high draft picks to fawn over lol.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Nah wasn't going off the media reports, but off our reliable ITK posters on our board.

If Kelly does leave, i think it will be proven that the 'Kelly is staying at GWS' talk was a tactical ploy to keep the speculation down and let GWS focus on finals.
And so far it's worked very well, you barely hear about him anymore.

It highlights the fact that the buzz was being generated by GWS in the first place.

I have no doubt they were the ones feeding the media.

 

[Pykie]

I don't even like Carlton, but it does amaze me that Northies reckon they have better young talent

Preuss
Simpkin
Brown (if a 24 year old counts)
Dumont
McDonald

Vs

SPS
Curnow
Weitering
Marchbank
Cripps
Docherty

Seems like a pretty easy choice

They've finished 16th, 14th, 18th, 13th, 9th and 10th in the last 6 years.

We've made finals 4 of the last 7 years and finished 9th in 2 of those years we didn't.


There'd be something seriously wrong if they didn't.

 

[Colonial]

It highlights the fact that the buzz was being generated by GWS in the first place.

I have no doubt they were the ones feeding the media.

Any proof?

Norths massive original offer and then the continual upping of the offers seems to be leaked from North as well.

Geez all clubs must be leaking like hell.

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[Snake_Baker]

I don't even like Carlton, but it does amaze me that Northies reckon they have better young talent

Preuss
Simpkin
Brown (if a 24 year old counts)
Dumont
McDonald

Your ignorance of the North list is breathtaking.

We invested in some of the best KPP and defender talent available, in the more recent drafts when we finished with higher ladder placings. This tends to be the target group for clubs that have 1st & 2nd round picks in the teens and 30's.

The defence

Tarrant is a recognised star defender that has 5 seasons left. Jamie MacMillan is a good half back, and the injury riddled Sam Wright is also a quality defender. Aaron Mullet was ranked 5th in the AFL for rebounds in 2017.

The future Defence

Neilsen, Ed Vickers - Willis and Durdin form the core spine of our backline for the next decade. Barring injury, Neilsen and Vickers - Willis will be 200 game AFL players. Durdin plays more of a swing man role. Ben McKay also debuted and looked right at home handling the big forwards.

On one half back flank we have Ryan Clarke who averaged 27 disposals in the last 5 matches of the season (Games 16 to 21) and racked up some impressive stats for the season, yet many don't even seem to know his name.

Ranked 3rd among rising stars in Total Handballs

Ranked 5th among rising stars in Total Disposals

Ranked 4th among rising stars in Total Uncontested Possessions

Ranked 8th among rising stars in Total Effective Disposals

Ranked 7th among rising stars in Total Centre Clearances

Ranked 1st among rising stars in Handballs Per Game

Ranked 5th among rising stars in Disposals Per Game

Ranked 5th among rising stars in Uncontested Possessions Per Game

Ranked 6th among rising stars in Effective Disposals Per Game

Ranked 8th among rising stars in Centre Clearances Per Game

Ranked 10th among rising stars in Metres Gained Per Game

He will become a 500 disposal player next season and won't turn 21 until June.

On the other back flank we have the impressive Declan Mountford.



Declan debuted in round 1, then came back and played the last 9 games of the season and performed admirably. The club is looking at extending his contract now.

Marley Williams came over from Collingwood for basically nothing and was playing so well in the first half of the season that his name was getting thrown around for AA squad inclusion, until he succumbed to a season ending injury. He has only just turned 24.

IMO, the highly touted Tasmanian draftee, Mitch Hibberd, will be the pick of the lot of them. He had an excellent 22 disposal/7 mark match against Freo in only his 3rd match before succumbing to a season ending injury early in the next match against Port.

Durdin - pick 16, Neilsen - pick 26, Vickers - Willis - pick 36 were all picked up in the 2014 draft. We snagged Preuss in the rookie draft.

McKay - pick 21, Clarke - pick 31, Hibberd - pick 33, Mountford - pick 60 were all picked up in the 2015 draft.

As you can see, we have recently focused on our defence with our best picks. They will all be good AFL players.

Our defence is in excellent shape and is basically set for the next 8 to 10 years, and yet you couldn't even mention one of these players in your list.

 

[Snake_Baker]

They've finished 16th, 14th, 18th, 13th, 9th and 10th in the last 6 years.

We've made finals 4 of the last 7 years and finished 9th in 2 of those years we didn't.


There'd be something seriously wrong if they didn't.

I think we have performed very well when you consider the two clubs relative pick weightings.

They may have snagged a couple mids with their top shelf picks, which is to be expected, but we have also shored up our defensive positions as I have pointed out.

Simpkin is going to end up being a steal (as Paul Roos raves), so we have lucked in to one future midfield/forward star with a later pick. Cunnington is elite inside. We just need a couple more to add to him. We land Kelly this year, or alternatively, we pick up one of the cream mids with pick 4. We only need to add one more then and we are set to roll again. Ahern (fingers crossed) could be that man. Preuss is rated amongst the best of the up and coming ruckmen.

As for the forwards, Brown requires no explanation, Garner has arrived, Wood is just about to, and I rate Hrovat as a player that will become very damaging when the midfield is stronger. Bob Murphy rated him the most talented of the youngsters at the Kennel. P

We're in better shape than many think.