Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Prochard123]

Hey Knightmare,

How many key position players do you see in next year's top 20 in draft? and would they be forwards or defenders?

 

[Sonsofthescray]

Hi KM, I have seen you and others link Berry to dogs! Is this just on that he would suits dogs or
chatter around the place? last year many people linked Bonner and B Mckay to to us but not even close.
I assume last year the dogs always wanted Dunkley and were surprised to get Collins.

 

[Hawker98]

Hey KM,
What are your thoughts on Jaimie Hampton? Who does he resemble? Whereabouts do you see him falling in the draft?


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[Knightmare]

Is you're suggestion for the Lions to do what Collingwood did this trade season and pick up some dud mature players because you believe we need experience

Collingwood also as per my article last week lack the necessary veteran experience and leadership necessary also to develop a winning team.

There may be some "dud mature agers" who help. Jack Grimes this year could be an example. He may be best 22 for Brisbane next year, or he may not. I suspect given his production this year in the VFL he probably would, but he is someone where as a previous co-captain of a club and a high quality character nearing 30, he can help.

There will be other similar cases over the coming years. Freebies who can help make Brisbane slightly more competitive but offer substantial value from a developmental standpoint, helping out the clubs youth substantially.

Hey KM, with the Roos positioned at 11 and potentially looking for a slider, I was wondering who would be your best bets for a bolter into the top 10 this year.

Obviously Logue has jumped up in most phantoms, but could a Hayward or SPP sneak in?

Logue probably goes to Sydney at 9.

Otherwise there is no one else not being spoken about as a probable top 10 pick looking likely to suddenly come from nowhere and work their way in there.

Sam Powell-Pepper may come close. Oliver Florent could just push into the top 10. Jarrod Berry if a club is really struggling for leadership - perhaps Gold Coast.

I'm not seeing anything too crazy happening inside the top 10 anyway that we don't already know.

Hi Knightmare, thoughts on GWS academy boy Kobe Mutch? Have heard rumours that North are keen at 32/33, do you think he'll be available around that point, would GWS match and what kind of player do you see him developing into?

Mutch may be available at 32/33. GWS I can't see wanting him/having room to accomodate him in their midfield. Their midfield runs too deep. North may well get him in the early 30s. It feels about the right place for him.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare,

How many key position players do you see in next year's top 20 in draft? and would they be forwards or defenders?

Wouldn't be out of the question for 10 (including ruckmen - many of the key forwards are combo ruckmen/forwards) to feature inside the top 20. 1-2 of those could be key defenders. The major strength is the ruck height types who also happen to be capable as forwards.

Hi KM, I have seen you and others link Berry to dogs! Is this just on that he would suits dogs or
chatter around the place? last year many people linked Bonner and B Mckay to to us but not even close.
I assume last year the dogs always wanted Dunkley and were surprised to get Collins.

For now in my case anyway just seeing him suiting the Dogs given his run and versatility.

Hey KM,
What are your thoughts on Jaimie Hampton? Who does he resemble? Whereabouts do you see him falling in the draft?

On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Something like a poor man's Chris Yarran equivalent off half-back.

He may go undrafted but would love to see him go late/rookie.

Like his game and feel he is a developable player. Skills can lack some consistency. But has terrific acceleration and can really use it impressively in game at times.

 

[Prochard123]

Wouldn't be out of the question for 10 (including ruckmen - many of the key forwards are combo ruckmen/forwards) to feature inside the top 20. 1-2 of those could be key defenders. The major strength is the ruck height types who also happen to be capable as forwards.



For now in my case anyway just seeing him suiting the Dogs given his run and versatility.



Something like a poor man's Chris Yarran equivalent off half-back.

He may go undrafted but would love to see him go late/rookie.

Like his game and feel he is a developable player. Skills can lack some consistency. But has terrific acceleration and can really use it impressively in game at times.

In that case is there any chance Marshall slides further from pick 15? Maybe to early to mid 20s? Given the overwhelming large supply of key forwards/forward rucks next year it almost feels like everyone who has such a need will get a good enough talent in this area.

For Collingwood, let's say we finish 8th, we end up with pick 11. Can you just maybe give a name or two of players who might be available at this pick? Also, how would you rank the variance in the 10 really good KPPs you mentioned? Are they all relatively similar? Or is there just one or two Darcy Moore/Jeremy Cameron/Tom lynch type outstanding elite talents?

Moreover, how would you compare the 2017 draft's KPP strength against the 2014 year, which is also a great KPP year with 7 KPP in the first 21 picks? Finally, how would you rank Moore vs Mccartin vs Wright at this stage? Who would you take out of the 3 with all things considered? Sorry for so many questions but the idea of 2017 being such a promising KPF draft got me really excited given Collingwood's situation. Thanks

 

[McCraeBF]

List managers are now taking notice of the so called go home factor...

WA kids will now loose currency with last 3 years examples.

So Petreski-Seton,English and even a few more might slide..
The safe bet seems to be Vic Country kids so again might move up the draft order...Thoughts?

 

[swooshacummings]

List managers are now taking notice of the so called go home factor...

WA kids will now loose currency with last 3 years examples.

So Petreski-Seton,English and even a few more might slide..
The safe bet seems to be Vic Country kids so again might move up the draft order...Thoughts?

I think the go home factor for WA draftees is a little exaggerated personally. I know that as a supporter of a WA team I have lamented the number of WA boys who have rejected returning home and as such would be content to say that on most occasions WA born players on the east coast prefer to stay there.. This year was a slight enigma but I do believe money had a bit to do with it in the dockers trading scenario.. West Coast were only able to lure two victorians in Mitchell and Vardy whilst last season it was a 50/50 split with Redden being from SA and Jetta WA..

We did miss out on signatures of Yarran, Lobb, Coniglio, Hogan, O'meara, Pickett etc.. in last couple of seasons.

Money talks as does lifestyle so if the money the draftee or senior player stands to make by returning to WA is not more by the time they project their career to end then why would they travel more and cut their career short by one season, financially disadvantaging themselves in the process...

I wish the WA boys returned more often in reality..

 

[Knightmare]

In that case is there any chance Marshall slides further from pick 15? Maybe to early to mid 20s? Given the overwhelming large supply of key forwards/forward rucks next year it almost feels like everyone who has such a need will get a good enough talent in this area.

For Collingwood, let's say we finish 8th, we end up with pick 11. Can you just maybe give a name or two of players who might be available at this pick? Also, how would you rank the variance in the 10 really good KPPs you mentioned? Are they all relatively similar? Or is there just one or two Darcy Moore/Jeremy Cameron/Tom lynch type outstanding elite talents?

Moreover, how would you compare the 2017 draft's KPP strength against the 2014 year, which is also a great KPP year with 7 KPP in the first 21 picks? Finally, how would you rank Moore vs Mccartin vs Wright at this stage? Who would you take out of the 3 with all things considered? Sorry for so many questions but the idea of 2017 being such a promising KPF draft got me really excited given Collingwood's situation. Thanks

10-20 is about right for Marshall. He could go as late as 20.

Sam Hayes and Callum Coleman-Jones could be two in the first round Collingwood consider depending on availability. They're two of the top rated prospects at this stage, but with a year until next years draft, things will change and others may pass them by for either/or/both to fall to around where Collingwood may be picking.

The quality of talls next year are probably around where the 2014 talls were at. Not much separation for me at this stage. Though with a year to run, things can and very well may change.

List managers are now taking notice of the so called go home factor...

WA kids will now loose currency with last 3 years examples.

So Petreski-Seton,English and even a few more might slide..
The safe bet seems to be Vic Country kids so again might move up the draft order...Thoughts?

Clubs can always trade players if that happens.

You have to draft to get the best player there.

If go-home factor happens then just trade that player for the best possible return.

Clubs should have a fair indication through the interviewing process how the players are feeling towards moving and whether they are likely to feel comfortable playing for an interstate club. That can always be taken into account, and perhaps if two players are rated evenly come into the equation. But otherwise I wouldn't put such a heavy weighting on it, and would back in my program, expecting the club to have the resources and program to help the kids settle in adequately.

 

[GHS33]

Does Campbell Lane get taken in the ND this year? I'm surprised he hasn't featured in many of the Phantoms considering his TAC numbers and five games at VFL level.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Does Campbell Lane get taken in the ND this year? I'm surprised he hasn't featured in many of the Phantoms considering his TAC numbers and five games at VFL level.

OMG he's named after a Cold Chisel lyric.

Knightmare, do you think 23 would be too early to bid on Mutch? How does he stack up with the other players thereabouts?

 

[Knightmare]

Does Campbell Lane get taken in the ND this year? I'm surprised he hasn't featured in many of the Phantoms considering his TAC numbers and five games at VFL level.

Not invited to the state or national combine so hard to see him getting taken.

Has had a good year in the TAC Cup and I'll agree he contributed fine in the VFL.

More likely to join a VFL list than an AFL list with others ahead of him in the pecking order.

Not overly damaging and skills can at times let him down.

From Oakleigh of the top agers Lachlan Walker is my preference as a taller mid with better skills.

OMG he's named after a Cold Chisel lyric.

Knightmare, do you think 23 would be too early to bid on Mutch? How does he stack up with the other players thereabouts?

23 is probably early than a bid comes for Mutch. It may come closer to St Kilda's pick 36.

He could be worth a bid around there though. Not quick or damaging but very high productions, wins the footy, has the endurance and an overall very solid all-around game.

 

[smashbox gill]

KM where do you see Sproule and Mcredie being bid on? I yhink both are quality types and I would bid Carlton 25 on them? I kno Mcredie was highly rated at the start of the year what happened? Where do u see both their ceilings?

Also like Zac Fisher? Where do u think he will end up?

 

[Knightmare]

KM where do you see Sproule and Mcredie being bid on? I yhink both are quality types and I would bid Carlton 25 on them? I kno Mcredie was highly rated at the start of the year what happened? Where do u see both their ceilings?

Also like Zac Fisher? Where do u think he will end up?

I've posted my phantom draft below my power rankings on page one.

Sproule and Macreadie may receive bids as early as the 20s, or as late as the 40s.

Fisher also from pick 20 onwards comes into the frame and may get selected 20-50.

Sproule could play at either end, maybe on a wing. Has good endurance but lacks any kind of physicality. If things go right he could be something like James Stewart.

Macreadie is a capable stopper, athletically and physically pretty good. Good skills. Just not enough of an intercepter and not influential enough. Macreadie might become something like Aidan Corr.

Both could have higher ceilings but I'm not that optimistic, projecting ahead, with neither coming on as much as I would have liked this season.

 

[Sonsofthescray]

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18005357/knightmares-historical-afl-draft-analysis

Fantastic Article KM. Best draft analysis I have ever read!

 

[Suma Magic]

That article was fantastic.

 

[CRIPPA9]

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18005357/knightmares-historical-afl-draft-analysis

Fantastic Article KM. Best draft analysis I have ever read!

Terrific read, that.

 

[hatescaptcha]

Hey KM, you've probably answered this a million times but where do you see Quinton Narkle landing? What pick range? Really like his attributes. Think he would transition well into AFL.


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[spotthedot]

howdy knightmare
just a quick one on a couple of Claremont lads...
matt guelfi...a draft chance or rookie chance...and
jacob sideris (won Claremont colts f & b)...a rookie chance?
appreciate any comments you throw my way
cheers

 

[Gollo]

Does Campbell Lane get taken in the ND this year? I'm surprised he hasn't featured in many of the Phantoms considering his TAC numbers and five games at VFL level.

Same deal as Kade Answerth last year and to a lesser extent, Lachie Walker. Answerth is a ready-made midfielder with excellent production and smarts, but wasn't taken and doesn't look like being taken. Classic footballers without outstanding athletic traits always seem to get overlooked, and I wonder how many clubs with sub-par recruiting history could have benefitted from these guys, who you know what you will get. Lane deserves a spot on a list, but won't get it. Not yet.

 

[Great8]

Probably already been asked but KM if the rumours of Florent wanting to stay in Victoria are true how far do you think he will slide and any chance of making it to us at 20?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, you've probably answered this a million times but where do you see Quinton Narkle landing? What pick range? Really like his attributes. Think he would transition well into AFL.

On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

From the third round onwards can come into consideration. Late/rookie is his range.

You're right about him having some attributes. Caught the eye during the u18 champs. Just one from a very deep midfield group this year.

howdy knightmare
just a quick one on a couple of Claremont lads...
matt guelfi...a draft chance or rookie chance...and
jacob sideris (won Claremont colts f & b)...a rookie chance?
appreciate any comments you throw my way
cheers

Guelfi draft chance late/rookie.

Sideris isn't in the mix. Not invited to the state or national combine.

Had a good year through the midfield but at 165cm unless you've got the talent of Caleb Daniel (who during the u18 champs averaged at least 20 disposals and over 90% kicking efficiency which are insane numbers) it's an uphill battle. Sub 170cm types need to be super special to be picked.

Same deal as Kade Answerth last year and to a lesser extent, Lachie Walker. Answerth is a ready-made midfielder with excellent production and smarts, but wasn't taken and doesn't look like being taken. Classic footballers without outstanding athletic traits always seem to get overlooked, and I wonder how many clubs with sub-par recruiting history could have benefitted from these guys, who you know what you will get. Lane deserves a spot on a list, but won't get it. Not yet.

I agree with this view by type. There are terrific mids and well performed types who get overlooked every year and there are others types who haven't achieved anything and get a shot.

Lachie Walker this year is one I'm big on and rate inside my top 40. Terrific all rounder, has the production on the board, great height, plays inside and outside well.

Answerth as a rookie for me was worth a shot last year also.

But that's the way it goes.

Probably already been asked but KM if the rumours of Florent wanting to stay in Victoria are true how far do you think he will slide and any chance of making it to us at 20?

North Melbourne like him at 11. So he probably doesn't make it past that choice. Should go top 15 is the expectation.

 

[Knightmare]

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18005357/knightmares-historical-afl-draft-analysis

Fantastic Article KM. Best draft analysis I have ever read!

I've spent a lot of time over the years looking through past drafts (what works, what doesn't) so all this info to me is second nature and ingrained in my mind. All drafts from 1999 onwards I've studied the heck out of. I put a lot of weighting in my power rankings on these past learnings and have increasingly so each year (none more so than this year).

It was terrific to get the opportunity to share some of this and provide some of this insight with my readers.

 

[Bicks]

Knightmare I'm told there is some interest in a young SA forward Tom Charlton, originally from Pt. Lincoln and moved to Adelaide this year to play for the Norwood Colts, must admit it was a name I'd not heard before and all I can find is an SANFL video where he was a weekly MVP winner, looks good overhead and a decent kick....Any mail??

 

[Milanista28]

Outside of the academy and F/S picks could you guarantee/pencil in 3 picks right now? Seems as this is the most open draft ever and certain players have massive ranges.

If you had to pick 3 players getting to a certain club at a certain pick who would they be?