Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[Balony_pony16]

Criticism at knightmare here is pathetic. Phantoms are opinion based and are largely for creating discussion. AFL clubs can’t even predict what other clubs will do half the time so what do people expect from a phantom drafter? If you are getting yourback up over someone that puts loads of time into draft watching and phantoms drafts, then perhaps draft watching in a forum is not your thing... those people should kindly let themselves out imo

 

[HedgeFund]

Criticism at knightmare here is pathetic. Phantoms are opinion based and are largely for creating discussion. AFL clubs can’t even predict what other clubs will do half the time so what do people expect from a phantom drafter? If you are getting yourback up over someone that puts loads of time into draft watching and phantoms drafts, then perhaps draft watching in a forum is not your thing... those people should kindly let themselves out imo

So it’s ok for KM to criticise an AFL clubs recruiting, but not OK for people on this forum to criticise him for doing so?

To his credit, he answers the vast majority of questions and respond to comments BUT at some point in time (ie. last Friday night) opinion on likely drafting is overtaken by the reality of that draft.

Once the draft is done, I don’t see the point in trying to argue where clubs “got it wrong”.

Just my opinion mind you.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Knight... advice for the future when doing anything review. Prob stay away from ratings as anything that gives a team a score will just trigger certain people.. you know “but afl recruiters obviously disagree... etc”

What would be good would be a holistic review... for instance, port getting rated an A for their combined trade and draft.

Perhaps review what clubs did as a whole...ie balance of their draft. Rating on best talent might suggest clubs should have gone for all kids etc... lions for instance, went mids/hf’s early then talls late. A review on them now knowing this approach and how/if you think they could have done better etc

Anyway. Cheers for the top work this year. I didn’t always agree but you wouldn’t expect everyone too. Keep up the good work

 

[Knightmare]

so you really think liam ryan was an astute pick seems a reach too me remember he could have been snatched up last yr as a rookie

There were a lot of teams interested in Ryan this year. West Coast, Geelong and Melbourne were believed to be strongly considering over the next few picks.

Having a guy who kicked 73 goals in the WAFL and he's only just turned 21. He's one I'd draft. He's 31 in my power rankings, so that's not really reaching based on my rankings. He went roughly around where I would have been prepaired to look at him.

He's certainly one who could go either way. He has the talent to be a special player up front who will work better at selling tickets than any marketing department. Can he cope with the demands of senior footy? We'll have to wait and see.

Hey KM great work as usual mate, what are your thoughts on the swans 3 picks? i was a bit shitty about is getting Ling initially especially whilst Higgins was still available and the fact that most people had him going around piks 20-30 but after watching his highlights he looks like a very likely type. Who would you compare him to out of current players?

Im quite happy with McCartin and im bloody rapt with Stoddart, from his highlights he reminds me a bit of Jayden Hunt, what are your thoughts on Stoddart as a player and where did you have him being picked up ?

cheers mate

Ling was taken earlier than expected and earlier than I would have taken him. He isn't one who goes in and wins his own footy which concerns me, and he is someone you really need to feed the ball to, if he is to have any impact. That said. If he has ball in hand, he's using it really nicely - terrific kick, has the vision and decision making. And as a line-breaker, if you don't have anyone immediately in front of him to stop him, he'll break the lines like no other in this draft.

Tom McCartin while he has his fans, I'm not really big on him. He has good endurance and works up the ground well. Age is on his side as one of the younger players in the draft class. My issue with him is he doesn't draw the ball enough inside 50 or hit the scoreboard enough, with just the 9 goals from 13 TAC Cup games, which is a poor return.

As for Stoddart. He's a good value pick. He's another good offensively minded half back flanker who can run, has the agility to avoid tackles and uses the ball well from defence. He's a more able ball winner than Ling, and may develop into the better player Sydney drafted. I rated him at 40 in my power rankings, but was expecting him to get picked somewhere in the 20s or 30s. A significant surprise to see him slide to 53, particularly with the focus so many clubs went into this draft with - pace, with a higher weighting in my rankings on pace than I certainly was prepaired to give.

 

[Balony_pony16]

So it’s ok for KM to criticise an AFL clubs recruiting, but not OK for people on this forum to criticise him for doing so?

To his credit, he answers the vast majority of questions and respond to comments BUT at some point in time (ie. last Friday night) opinion on likely drafting is overtaken by the reality of that draft.

Once the draft is done, I don’t see the point in trying to argue where clubs “got it wrong”.

Just my opinion mind you.

Meh. Any phantom drafter lays it on the line all season giving open opinion on all players. Are they going to get it right... no. But when asked to review of coarse they do a review based on their work. It seems people only get triggered post draft because it may seem like their clubs draft is criticised. It’s based on his rolling opinion put out their throughout the year. I just don’t see the need for triggering

 

[Balony_pony16]

Knight... not sure if you have cover this. But Zac Bailey to the lions. They have come out saying they wanted a fast inside player who damages forward of center I believe. With this in mind do you think they got it right... and what similar type of players were available at the time?

 

[Balony_pony16]

Also knight, would love a fantasy footy write up now you know you went where

 

[Warwick]

Starcevich has all the tools (acceleration from the contest, lowers his eyes and is skilled, strong body). He just needs to find more of the footy, more often, and improve his endurance.

His average of 14.3 disposals per game in the WAFL colts (a weaker competition than the TAC Cup) is why I rated him where I did.

Thank you. My point was that I don’t expect you to change your opinion of him or of our recruiting team just because he was selected by the Lions and I’ve now actually taken the time to watch his videos, read his profile etc.

However that’s not what some people in here believe about their new players though.

 

[benfica]

There were a lot of teams interested in Ryan this year. West Coast, Geelong and Melbourne were believed to be strongly considering over the next few picks.

Having a guy who kicked 73 goals in the WAFL and he's only just turned 21. He's one I'd draft. He's 31 in my power rankings, so that's not really reaching based on my rankings. He went roughly around where I would have been prepaired to look at him.

He's certainly one who could go either way. He has the talent to be a special player up front who will work better at selling tickets than any marketing department. Can he cope with the demands of senior footy? We'll have to wait and see.

i think the eagles had tim kelly slotted in as pick 26 and didnt want to lose another one of their targets so they puled the trigger early

 

[Knightmare]

Knight... not sure if you have cover this. But Zac Bailey to the lions. They have come out saying they wanted a fast inside player who damages forward of center I believe. With this in mind do you think they got it right... and what similar type of players were available at the time?

Bailey has game. From a Brisbane context, he is something like another Zorko through the midfield, but without the skills or scoreboard impact. Genuine contested ball winner at the coalface and his movement and acceleration through traffic is next level. He's one where if he works out, he could be an out and out star with some of his attributes. I like the Bailey selection a lot for the Lions.

Also knight, would love a fantasy footy write up now you know you went where

I'll do some kind of fantasy preview during the preseason some time.

For some quick names: Cerra, Z.Bailey, Higgins, Allen, L.Fogarty, T.Kelly, L.Ryan, B.Daniels, Spargo, Fritsch, Ainsworth, Constable, McPherson, Wooller, Worpel, Paton, Baker, Houlahan, Stoddart, Miers, Crowden, Moore, H.Brayshaw, Switkowski and Guelfi are some you may see next year who may at their prices be worth having on your watch-list early days.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Appreciate your even handed, cool headed approach Knightmare.
I don't agree with some of your analysis but always impressed with your professional attitude.
People need to realise that your statements, including club draft ratings are all opinions based on extensive research. Some will be wrong, some will be right.
Just don't take it so personally everyone.

Anyway, speaking of exhaustive research I have to admit that I know 0 about Zerk-Thatcher. Any thoughts on him?

 

[Knightmare]

Appreciate your even handed, cool headed approach Knightmare.
I don't agree with some of your analysis but always impressed with your professional attitude.
People need to realise that your statements, including club draft ratings are all opinions based on extensive research. Some will be wrong, some will be right.
Just don't take it so personally everyone.

Anyway, speaking of exhaustive research I have to admit that I know 0 about Zerk-Thatcher. Any thoughts on him?

Overager. Skinny but athletic (good leaper and very quick) project player. Able mark, can pressure, skills ok for a tall. Can play back or forward and has spent some time through the ruck, but at 195cm, 72kg, unless he drastically bulks up, he is probably more a 3rd tall. He shows flashes in games without being overly consistent or dominant.

I was mildly surprised to see Zerk-Thatcher go in the national draft, seeing him more as a rookie. Will be interesting to see if/how he develops.

 

[theGav56]

My preference generally is for analysis.

With that said, I don't believe there is enough debate in the AFL. Anyone else watch ESPN First Take or Undisputed on FS1? I don't know about others, but they're my favourite sports programs to watch, with the focus on the debate, opinions and analysis.


For next year, do you guys think I should just stick to a straight up review as per last year where I did long profiles and how each player would fit? Should I simply do summary profiles as per my phantom draft to give a quick insight into each player? And just add the few that weren't in my phantom?

Maybe with a draft winners/losers piece I extend my power rankings and use a mathematical formula based on my power rankings to determine how positive or otherwise a draft was? And then just add whether the players fill the clubs list needs?

You guys are my readers. So I'd be interested in taking feedback for next year and what you'd most like to read.

Enjoy your work, and quite happy to agree or disagree with your opinion.

Yeah I think D+ is harsh, and your rational seems a bit odd to me (think you rated Brayshaw and Cerra as the most likely of the double top 10 draft combination picks to have the biggest impact for starters). Fussing about any player taken at pick 75 versus the RL seems petty.

Dixon gets a big plus. So does Meek. North, Crowden and Switkowski hit areas we need players coming in. Jones perhaps debatable after taking Meek.

My own rating B+.

Let's meet back here in 3 years.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Why is that "to be fair"?

Had WC known Allen would be available at 21, I wonder if they'd still have taken Brander at 13. I doubt it.

How can you say with conviction that the likes of Ling, Bailey, Richards, Higgins and Starcevich will be "poor quality"?

WC obviously took Brander in preference to Allen, believing he wouldn't be available .......they required a true KPP which Brander is ......of course they would have made the same decision, because they had already chosen one over the other

You then balanced those 2 talls with 2 speedy players to balance your draft selections .......if i was a supporter i'd be very happy with your selections

 

[Sweet Jesus]

WC obviously took Brander in preference to Allen

Agreed.

.......they required a true KPP which Brander is ......of course they would have made the same decision, because they had already chosen one over the other

I'm not so sure. If they knew they'd have the option to get Allen at 21, that could well have changed the calculus at 13. Sure, they preferred Brander at 13 but I'm not sure they'd have taken him had they known Allen would still be there at 21.

Also, what is a "true KPP"?

You then balanced those 2 talls with 2 speedy players to balance your draft selections .......if i was a supporter i'd be very happy with your selections

The question is whether two talls with the first two picks was overkill, given the midfield was the more obvious priority.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Agreed.

I'm not so sure. If they knew they'd have the option to get Allen at 21, that could well have changed the calculus at 13. Sure, they preferred Brander at 13 but I'm not sure they'd have taken him had they known Allen would still be there at 21.

Also, what is a "true KPP"?

The question is whether two talls with the first two picks was overkill, given the midfield was the more obvious priority.

195cm with a leap versus 191 cm with a leap .........but also how they play, do they command the eye of the midfield group coming forward

You're on a mini rebuild .....Kennedy is 30, and talls take an extra 1-2 years over Mids

Get the talls first ......then the Mids as part of the rebuild

I'm a big fan of Venables ....Draft / Trade 2 mids next year & you're on target

 

[Sweet Jesus]

195cm with a leap versus 191 cm with a leap .........but also how they play, do they command the eye of the midfield group coming forward

Whether they "command the eye of the midfield group"? There are players who aren't KPPs who do that.

I'm not sure that 4cm in height is the difference between a "true KPP" and whatever the alternative is.

You're on a mini rebuild .....Kennedy is 30, and talls take an extra 1-2 years over Mids

We have Darling and Waterman already on the list. Not sure we needed two more talls with our first two picks.

I'm a big fan of Venables ....Draft / Trade 2 mids next year & you're on target

Yeah, I'm sure it'll be that simple.

 

[Moo]

Criticism at knightmare here is pathetic. Phantoms are opinion based and are largely for creating discussion. AFL clubs can’t even predict what other clubs will do half the time so what do people expect from a phantom drafter? If you are getting yourback up over someone that puts loads of time into draft watching and phantoms drafts, then perhaps draft watching in a forum is not your thing... those people should kindly let themselves out imo

Knightmare doesn't seem to be getting his panties in a bunch, so perhaps you should just let the free flowing opinion and counter opinion flow.

I rate your post a D+.

 

[Snake_Baker]

There's no escaping the fact that people who get outraged by the opinions of others, can only do so because they have doubts about their own opinions.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

So Collingwood drafted well because of how they rated the players, not how you did.

Fremantle drafted poorly because of how you rated the players, not how they did.

Just seems like you're changing the rules as you go. Fremantle got two consensus top 5 players, that alone gets higher than a D+. We could have passed on all our remaining selections, and they'd still have done well. Considering most of our picks were after 60, we drafted about as well as we could. None of the players you listed would have been good fits for Fremantle anyway. A couple wold be lucky to be rookie listed.

Oh well, everyone gets an opinion.

Just an observation that you have become increasingly agressive in your vocality in the Knightmare threads since I've followed both of your draft threads over the years. I think the last sentence is the pertinent one. There is room for both of you in the bigfooty community and it isn't a competition.

 

[Heaps of fun]

A lot of whiteknightmaring going on in here.

 

[Yoda_]

Rookie phantom draft?

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Love your work KM.

I don't follow youth football at all so appreciate insights.

For those complaining about grades I have good news. The grades have no impact on how your boys will perform.

 

[Sector 7G]

so you really think liam ryan was an astute pick seems a reach too me remember he could have been snatched up last yr as a rookie

If you miss out on buying a mining stock when it was at 5 cents it doesn't mean you shouldn't buy it now at $1.

Don't worry about what he was worth last year , what is he worth now?

 

[mattyc75]

As a Carlton supporter Im not overly happy with our selections after Dow. It seems to me we have taken the rest too early. I also think SOS and co have liked and made their minds up on players so early and havent changed regardless of their development this year. Examples are Obrian after his 2016 form and he had already been at the club as part of a AFL Academy program and they spoke to Garlett in June and he didnt have an outstanding season in WA afterwards.
I think we moved gibbs on and positioned ourselves in the draft to take these players well before anyone else rather than picking best avaliable. I would have liked Fogarty or Higgins at 10. Knightmare do you think we still could have got Obrian at 30 and Dekonig at 70 if thats what we liked and then got a draft haul of Dow, Fogarty, Obrian and then the others we liked afterward?
I agree with being wary of taking pure outside players at 10 and taking punt with Garlett on main list instead of Rookie.

I think garlett would've been a better rookie pic on a 1 yr contract

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