Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[BigFrizz36]

I think garlett would've been a better rookie pic on a 1 yr contract

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

maybe another team was thinking the same??

 

[mattyc75]

maybe another team was thinking the same??

Doubt there wouldve been too much interest in the national draft. Maybe from the eagles tho..

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[rainwizard39]

I think garlett would've been a better rookie pic on a 1 yr contract

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

Can't Carlton sign him to a 1 year deal anyway for previosly being on an AFL List?

 

[Windhover]

My preference generally is for analysis.

With that said, I don't believe there is enough debate in the AFL. Anyone else watch ESPN First Take or Undisputed on FS1? I don't know about others, but they're my favourite sports programs to watch, with the focus on the debate, opinions and analysis.


For next year, do you guys think I should just stick to a straight up review as per last year where I did long profiles and how each player would fit? Should I simply do summary profiles as per my phantom draft to give a quick insight into each player? And just add the few that weren't in my phantom?

Maybe with a draft winners/losers piece I extend my power rankings and use a mathematical formula based on my power rankings to determine how positive or otherwise a draft was? And then just add whether the players fill the clubs list needs?

You guys are my readers. So I'd be interested in taking feedback for next year and what you'd most like to read.

I think your 2 list format - Power ratings/phantom draft - is very interesting. Even when you have got a player "wrong" because you didn't rate them (like you don't rate TDK) your power ratings usually explain what the risk is. I have found when seeing a player at AFL level there is in fact a strong correlation with the strengths/weaknesses you have identified. Sometimes a player you rubbished (i.e. TDK can't mark) has been able to overcome some technical flaw and improve on that skill. If TDK is able to do that, your opinion would then suggest he might be a useful pick.

Your draft winners/losers piece is IMO based on poorly thought out metrics. The only metric that counts is how useful is the player drafted in terms of the long term improvement of the drafting Club. This is NOT determined solely by the prospective talent of the player. In large part it is determined by the needs of the Club. For example, blind Freddy could tell that Collingwood have a need to improve their KPDs and KPFs. Instead the Pies recruited 4 midfielders. Murphy might be the steal of the draft and still be a silly pick if a quality KPD/F was missed.

 

[mattyc75]

Can't Carlton sign him to a 1 year deal anyway for previosly being on an AFL List?

No idea.you could be right

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[Firestarter]

There's no escaping the fact that people who get outraged by the opinions of others, can only do so because they have doubts about their own opinions.

Guilty.

 

[db26]

Gday mate Liam Baker missed out on the draft last year now at the tigers from all reports had a good year in the wafl.Maybe a midfield role they see him ?.Derek Smith don't know much about from our academy.

 

[Knightmare]

Rookie phantom draft?

Hardly a point. The rookie draft is a non-event. So few get taken, and 1/3 of them are recycled.

 

[Knightmare]

I think your 2 list format - Power ratings/phantom draft - is very interesting. Even when you have got a player "wrong" because you didn't rate them (like you don't rate TDK) your power ratings usually explain what the risk is. I have found when seeing a player at AFL level there is in fact a strong correlation with the strengths/weaknesses you have identified. Sometimes a player you rubbished (i.e. TDK can't mark) has been able to overcome some technical flaw and improve on that skill. If TDK is able to do that, your opinion would then suggest he might be a useful pick.

Your draft winners/losers piece is IMO based on poorly thought out metrics. The only metric that counts is how useful is the player drafted in terms of the long term improvement of the drafting Club. This is NOT determined solely by the prospective talent of the player. In large part it is determined by the needs of the Club. For example, blind Freddy could tell that Collingwood have a need to improve their KPDs and KPFs. Instead the Pies recruited 4 midfielders. Murphy might be the steal of the draft and still be a silly pick if a quality KPD/F was missed.

Sometimes players improve in the AFL system. Who they are at 17/18 isn't who they'll always be when they're 25. Most areas of ones game remain the same eg. if you're slow at 17/18, you're not likely to become overly quick. Typically a similar story with decision making and skills, though skills are relatively the more improvable.

If TDK can improve his marking. He would be more interesting as his movement is fairly good along with his ground level stuff. I still worry about his lack of aggression and attack on the ball and the way he can get pushed out of 1v1 contests.

Gday mate Liam Baker missed out on the draft last year now at the tigers from all reports had a good year in the wafl.Maybe a midfield role they see him ?.Derek Smith don't know much about from our academy.

Liam Baker is a solid get as a rookie. He's ready to play and can earn some games in 2018. He's capable forward or midfield. As a smaller type though, I suspect he'll be competing for one of the pressure forward positions (who can kick some goals), with a view towards being part of the extended midfield rotation, with some minor midfield minutes each game to relieve the mids.

Derek Smith is a project player who will take time to develop. He has pace and while he did very little in his two TAC Cup games, he did enough in five VFL games for Richmond to earn a rookie spot.

 

[Knightmare]

2018 top 20 prospects: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/21565075/knightmare-top-20-afl-draft-prospects-2018

 

[HedgeFund]

2018 top 20 prospects: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/21565075/knightmare-top-20-afl-draft-prospects-2018

Bailey Smith - Xavier/Sandringham
Will go top 10.
McGrath v3.0
A. Brayshaw v2.0
Not enough weapons or hurt factor for you, but he will be on stage this time next year.
Bookmark it.

 

[Knightmare]

Bailey Smith - Xavier/Sandringham
Will go top 10.
McGrath v3.0
A. Brayshaw v2.0
Not enough weapons or hurt factor for you, but he will be on stage this time next year.
Bookmark it.

In my top 30. One of the more advanced mids/backs as we speak.

 

[GoGrows]

can't wait to see next yrs crop in action.

although "next yrs crop" is always good when being talked about this far out.

 

[HedgeFund]

In my top 30. One of the more advanced mids/backs as we speak.

He won’t play in the backline in 2018.

 

[shaztec]

Hi KM what can you tell me about the rookies the eagles just picked up? Cheers.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Balony_pony16]

Knightmare doesn't seem to be getting his panties in a bunch, so perhaps you should just let the free flowing opinion and counter opinion flow.

I rate your post a D+.

Counter opinion post draft when clearly people are fanboying because their said club can’t be wrong? Na... where was the outrage predraft? Clearly some are complaining just because ones clubs drafting may be criticised... off opinions layer out on the line all year mine you. I just don’t think some of the “criticism” has been constructive at all... the timing of such strong opinions says it all imo

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM what can you tell me about the rookies the eagles just picked up? Cheers.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Burrows - skilled, speedy outside type/forward. Not a massive ball winner. Hasn't played much WAFL. Has upside.

Olango - Overlooked last year. High leaping ruckman who is a tap specialist. Doesn't do much around the ground and is a below average threat forward of centre.

England - Good through the U18 champs. Can find the footy. Provides outside run. Pretty good ball user. Another fairly outside type still well enough performed to be worth a shot as a rookie.

 

[remfan101]

Hi Knightmare, what were the knocks on Thomas Murphy from Dandenong? Looking at his numbers, highlights and testing I just can't see why he'd slip to pick #4 in the rookie draft. His kicking is ridiculous, he's quick, apparently has great endurance, averaged about 19 touches a game in the TAC cup, played VFL footy, and shows great courage with his marking from what I've seen. Just seems strange that he'd still be available??

 

[Austin_McCrabbs]

Hey Knightmare,

How would you rate Harrison Jones and Changkuoth Jiath?

 

[foj1]

You love your Sandy boys and they have returned the love.
I will be interested to see how he recovers from the grand final.
You must be disappointed about McLean.

Bailey Smith - Xavier/Sandringham
Will go top 10.
McGrath v3.0
A. Brayshaw v2.0
Not enough weapons or hurt factor for you, but he will be on stage this time next year.
Bookmark it.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Not drafted not rookied (Power Ranking)

Butts (20)
Cassidy Parish (29)
Thompson (34)
Schloithe (45)

 

[HedgeFund]

You love your Sandy boys and they have returned the love.
I will be interested to see how he recovers from the grand final.
You must be disappointed about McLean.

Very - but there’s several other hard luck stories throughout the TAC who had equal claims IMO (Day, Podjhaski, J. Johnston, etc.)

Fortunately there seems to be a trend now to more mature aged recruiting, which I think is great. So now it’s more likely a 19-21 year old who dusts himself off and plays well in state leagues can get noticed.

 

[RedBulls]

2018 top 20 prospects: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/21565075/knightmare-top-20-afl-draft-prospects-2018

Is it rare to see so many on the board so early? Feels like we're about to be treated to some outstanding talent next year

 

[jock graeme]

It's all around value per pick and assessing the performance of each club based on those available at the picks. Understanding in the grading that if you enter the draft in the 40s, you're expecting someone rated closer to that point. Whereas those with high end picks, it's judging based on those alternatives available and whether they took the best player there or not.

Fremantle didn't pick duds with Cerra or Brayshaw. Nor did Carlton with Dow. Brayshaw was sub-optimal value given the other options available (based on my analysis) and those players picked later by Carlton and Fremantle didn't do anything for me, with all those other players chosen outside my top 60 power rankings.

I believe I am objective. Seeing Fremantle receive a D+ for their draft efforts should give a West Coast supporter a warm fuzzy feeling. It doesn't because that rating is wrong and indefensible. Fremantle got the draft right. They nailed picks 2 (Brayshaw) & 5 (Cerra) which gives them an automatic B. Their next pick was 44 and they chose Hugh Dixon. From my perspective HD was always going to be the huge value selection for anyone that took him after the first round. I saw him play live 3 times through the year in Div2 and Div1 U/18 Championships. I had seen vision of his TSL senior games post the U/18 Championships. Everything I saw has been supported by data. Dixon had the highest % of contested possessions to possessions in the U/18 Div 1 when playing for the Allies. His disposal efficiency was still very high. He kicked 9 goals in 4 games for the Allies and was far from a stationary "full forward" often playing up the ground. He gave off numerous goals when I saw him play and undoubtedly he was a match winner against Vic Metro kicking 3 and being directly involved in another 4. His return to the TSL after the Championships saw him take his game to another level week by week. My spies told me he was training hard and getting fit and his last 2 TSL games of the year showed hard work was paying off. He played up the ground and through the middle in both games, but still managed to kick 5 goals against Glenorchy, where he had an ex AFL listed opponent, and 3 goals against Hobart. Yet, it was the way he did it. Good in the air and super clean on the ground. He goes to the All Stars game and gives 4 goals off in the first half before been swung down back in the second half and doing very well. I am a big wrap for Jarrod Brander and not disappointed West Coast snared him at 13 at all. Yet if you are talking value, how on earth could Dixon not be considered good value at 44 if Brander went at 13 and Allen at 21? Fremantle at this point have absolutely nailed the draft with picks 2,5 and 44. They are on an A (or more). They finish off with some later needs based picks, several which I rate, but somehow you give them a D+. Sorry, throw your power rankings out, they are wrong. Overhaul your methods of analysis. Think twice about giving subjective assessments which fly in the face of popular opinion unless you have reasons which prove it is highly likely to be wrong. Popular and expert (recruiters) opinion will usually be correct. In this case it is. I am with the dockers - did I just say that - they nailed the draft and scored an A. Just my opinion. You have the reasons for it.

 

[james Dean]

How would Lukosious (sp) compare to Jack Darling who also looked like being a beast at a young age, yet hasn't really developed into much more than a good 2nd option?

Is the scope for improvement far greater?