Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[Jazny]

Knightmare do you reckon Harrison Gunter from Glenorchy will get drafted??

Will he get another shot at mariners next year? He looks really good.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,

Which clubs do you think did the best for their relative picks in the National and Rookie Drafts?

My what turned out to be highly controversial draft review answers exactly this with the national draft (grades based on value per pick): http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/21543047/knightmare-2017-afl-draft-winners-losers

Outcomes have changed little with rookie picks. Fremantle improved their overall draft with Bailey Banfield a great get as a rookie.

Overall I'd give the points to Richmond and Geelong as the two clubs who did best overall. Richmond and Geelong nailed the national drafts, based on my power rankings, and I also like their rookie drafts. Liam Baker is a solid get as a small forward/midfielder who can pressure up front, hit the scoreboard/here and there and also win it through the mids. Crameri I also really like for Geelong, while recycled, he is in my view a genuine best 22 player for the majority of sides - assuming a win-now mentality and wanting to put the best team out there.

Irrespective of your "power rankings", the data set is still open and currently at zero, so you can't reach any logical conclusion. This is a very lazy analytical interpretation and it skews the integrity of the data.

Ahern does have data. He has missed the past two seasons, but did play during 2015 in the NEAFL. He had some good games, some quiet games. He may still make it, but he's highly unlikely to be one of the best 10 players from his draft year.

 

[Knightmare]

Will he get another shot at mariners next year? He looks really good.

Will leave that for the Tasmanians who are more in the know on this one.

He tested well at the Victorian state combine, so he is one I'd imagine would continue his footy somewhere.

 

[Jazny]

Will leave that for the Tasmanians who are more in the know on this one.

He tested well at the Victorian state combine, so he is one I'd imagine would continue his footy somewhere.

He kind of came out of nowhere I think this year. I am not even sure he was initially in the mariners... I hope he stays, people can be drafted from the TSL.

 

[Paracleet]

I'm regularly right about those who I believe have gone too early. There are a lot of players taken early in the first round I did not approve of going so high: Josh Schache and Sam Weideman I though was taken too early. Same goes for: Paul Ahern, Corey Ellis, Nathan Freeman, Ben Lennon, Jon O'Rourke, WHE, Buntine, Sumner, Gorringe, L.Cook and Tape for some top of mind, if you take the time to go through my drafts over the years.

Humble. Do you also talk about players you did approve of going high but at this point might not be considered to be worth in retrospect, or is it all just selective reasoning? Lets do it in reverse. Your No. 1 rated 2014 Player: Peter Wright, 2 Sam Durdin, 5 Hugh Goddard. Your 5th ranked player for 2012 was Mason Shaw! Need I go on?

 

[HedgeFund]

Humble. Do you also talk about players you did approve of going high but at this point might not be considered to be worth in retrospect, or is it all just selective reasoning? Lets do it in reverse. Your No. 1 rated 2014 Player: Peter Wright, 2 Sam Durdin, 5 Hugh Goddard. Your 5th ranked player for 2012 was Mason Shaw! Need I go on?

It’s very selective indeed, but if you claim to be an expert, pointing out your failings is the worst thing you could do, isn’t it?

Best leave it up to others......

 

[HedgeFund]

Ahern does have data. He has missed the past two seasons, but did play during 2015 in the NEAFL. He had some good games, some quiet games. He may still make it, but he's highly unlikely to be one of the best 10 players from his draft year.

Zero data for the last two years, obviously. In my opinion you shouldn’t even have named him as it’s ignorant to disregard his horrific injury run.

How do you rate Alex Johnson (Syd)? Just been rookie listed after suffering 5 knee reconstructions. Is he a boom or a bust at pick 57 in 2010?

 

[Wild Bill]

Lukosius and Benny Brown!! Would be a nice combo imo!!!

As would Thomas and LDU in the middle.

 

[GoGrows]

How do you rate Alex Johnson (Syd)? Just been rookie listed after suffering 5 knee reconstructions. Is he a boom or a bust at pick 57 in 2010?

it's relative to draft position or investment.

you dont expect anything from pick 57.

 

[GoGrows]

It’s very selective indeed, but if you claim to be an expert.

who is claiming to be an expert?

he's offering his opinion.

 

[Knightmare]

Zero data for the last two years, obviously. In my opinion you shouldn’t even have named him as it’s ignorant to disregard his horrific injury run.

How do you rate Alex Johnson (Syd)? Just been rookie listed after suffering 5 knee reconstructions. Is he a boom or a bust at pick 57 in 2010?

From a GWS context. Paul Ahern is definitively a failure. A pick 7. Played no games. Traded for pick 69 two years later.

That's not to say he can't have a career at AFL level. He may well still prove a valuable pickup with North Melbourne if he can get his body right. That is the unknown.

Alex Johnson I view as a success given where he was picked. He's played 45 games and is still in the competition and played good football pre-injury. Had he stayed healthy, it was looking after his first two seasons that he would be one of if not the bargain of his draft.

 

[raffrox]

Fremantle improved their overall draft with Bailey Banfield a great get as a rookie.

Not sure if trolling

Improved from a D+ to a D+

 

[Knightmare]

Not sure if trolling

Improved from a D+ to a D+

Banfield was inside my top 50 prospects and of the rookies taken, the only one from inside my top 50.

Had a strong season in the WAFL as an overager - 484 disposals, 112 tackles.

He's a very solid mid.

 

[theGav56]

Banfield was inside my top 50 prospects and of the rookies taken, the only one from inside my top 50.

Had a strong season in the WAFL as an overager - 484 disposals, 112 tackles.

He's a very solid mid.

any thoughts on why he slid? I was puzzled that WC didn’t take him with their last pick and instead passed. Exactly what they need.

 

[Chris25]

Not sure if trolling

Improved from a D+ to a D+

If only we took Butts instead of Dixon, along with Parish, Schloithe and Thompson in the national draft. Then it would have been an A+.

 

[jjami15]

Lukosius and Benny Brown!! Would be a nice combo imo!!!

As would Thomas and LDU in the middle.

This is a possibility but you will have to finish last IMO and there will be stiff competition (or lack thereof) from the Suns.

 

[Sin City]

If only we took Butts instead of Dixon, along with Parish, Schloithe and Thompson in the national draft. Then it would have been an A+.

I've known Dixon was going to Freo since July. They were into Alex Pearce in a similar way in 2013. They've put a heap of work into him, watched him play a hell of a lot more than anyone on BigFooty and basically know him as well as his own family do.

Giving a club a rating based on a casual observer's personal rankings is a bad idea given the testing and interviews the clubs do plus all the extra footage they get to see. It also doesn't take into account a club's needs and strategy, for example as soon as this season finished Bolton said Carlton would look to improve their outside run. Silvagni goes and gets O'Brien, Lang, Garlett, Schumacher, Mullett and Shaw while still adding an elite mid talent in Dow but despite getting exactly what the coach asked for they might not be high on someone else's personal rankings.

 

[Wild Bill]

This is a possibility but you will have to finish last IMO and there will be stiff competition (or lack thereof) from the Suns.

Round 1 - the Lukosius cup!!

Not much between Lukosius and Rankine IMO. King also in that mix. I think we will be bottom 3 which should give us 1 of these plus Thomas. Blakley would make it a dream draft but think he stays in NSW.

 

[briztoon]

Round 1 - the Lukosius cup!!

Not much between Lukosius and Rankine IMO. King also in that mix. I think we will be bottom 3 which should give us 1 of these plus Thomas. Blakley would make it a dream draft but think he stays in NSW.

What can you tell me about North Melbourne F/S prospect Joel Crocker?

I can empathise with North supporters, where their club is currently situated in the AFL landscape, and set to miss out on two potential top 20 father son prospects in Bailey Scott and Nick Blakey.

But watching the melts this year has been fun, and I can only imagine they'll increase in regularity and intensity as next year progresses.

 

[Wild Bill]

What can you tell me about North Melbourne F/S prospect Joel Crocker?

I can empathise with North supporters, where their club is currently situated in the AFL landscape, and set to miss out on two potential top 20 father son prospects in Bailey Scott and Nick Blakey.

But watching the melts this year has been fun, and I can only imagine they'll increase in regularity and intensity as next year progresses.

I think Scott is a much bigger chance to join the Roos than Blakey. He wears his Roo jumper every time he watches his younger brother play.

Missing Blakey is ok with our first Tassie player looking like a top 10 prospect. Amazed we have access to such a god young kid.

 

[sr36]

It's all around value per pick and assessing the performance of each club based on those available at the picks. Understanding in the grading that if you enter the draft in the 40s, you're expecting someone rated closer to that point. Whereas those with high end picks, it's judging based on those alternatives available and whether they took the best player there or not.

Fremantle didn't pick duds with Cerra or Brayshaw. Nor did Carlton with Dow. Brayshaw was sub-optimal value given the other options available (based on my analysis) and those players picked later by Carlton and Fremantle didn't do anything for me, with all those other players chosen outside my top 60 power rankings.

I reckon you may need to reassess your system. In terms of your ratings, having really early picks is a disadvantage as the best you can do from those picks is a par score, whereas with Pick 60 you can have a big win.

 

[DaveLister]

I've known Dixon was going to Freo since July. They were into Alex Pearce in a similar way in 2013. They've put a heap of work into him, watched him play a hell of a lot more than anyone on BigFooty and basically know him as well as his own family do.

Giving a club a rating based on a casual observer's personal rankings is a bad idea given the testing and interviews the clubs do plus all the extra footage they get to see. It also doesn't take into account a club's needs and strategy, for example as soon as this season finished Bolton said Carlton would look to improve their outside run. Silvagni goes and gets O'Brien, Lang, Garlett, Schumacher, Mullett and Shaw while still adding an elite mid talent in Dow but despite getting exactly what the coach asked for they might not be high on someone else's personal rankings.

I'm pretty sure Freo accidentally leaked that they rated Dixon 23rd in the draft when they released his highlights video on their site for the first time

Having taken 4 Tasmanians in the past 5 drafts, I'd say we have a pretty good idea of the talent coming out of that area. So when a team of highly paid professional scouts and recruiters rate a player at 23, I'm happy to back in that pick at 44

 

[Knightmare]

any thoughts on why he slid? I was puzzled that WC didn’t take him with their last pick and instead passed. Exactly what they need.

His range was late/rookie. It was less sliding as much as clubs had some others higher up their list in the national draft.

If only we took Butts instead of Dixon, along with Parish, Schloithe and Thompson in the national draft. Then it would have been an A+.

Would certainly have gotten Fremantle a better grade, though the choice of Brayshaw at 2 would still have kept Fremantle from an A+, as a 7-15 quality talent in this draft.

What can you tell me about North Melbourne F/S prospect Joel Crocker?

I can empathise with North supporters, where their club is currently situated in the AFL landscape, and set to miss out on two potential top 20 father son prospects in Bailey Scott and Nick Blakey.

But watching the melts this year has been fun, and I can only imagine they'll increase in regularity and intensity as next year progresses.

Joel Crocker is a best 30 talent in next years draft at the moment for mine. Reads the flight well and is a capable mark either intercepting down back or on the lead. Has some pace and agility. Clean at ground level. Good forward and back. Another good talent.

 

[Chris25]

Would certainly have gotten Fremantle a better grade, though the choice of Brayshaw at 2 would still have kept Fremantle from an A+, as a 7-15 quality talent in this draft.

I was joking...but drafting four players in the national draft, that 18 clubs thought weren't worthy of even being rookied would have gotten a higher grade? Interesting.

 

[Snake_Baker]

What can you tell me about North Melbourne F/S prospect Joel Crocker?

I can empathise with North supporters, where their club is currently situated in the AFL landscape, and set to miss out on two potential top 20 father son prospects in Bailey Scott and Nick Blakey.

I'm confident we will land Bailey Scott. Not so much with Blakey