Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Crow till I die]

Depends entirely on how Adelaide rate the draft and who they have on their draft board.

I'd personally trade down. I'm seeing a lot of value and players who can be had later than I'd be prepared to take them. Whether it's just moving out of the top-5 and getting a Roberts + something else, or moving yet further down and getting some other combination. Really depends on where Adelaide see those value points as being in the draft to maximise the possible haul drafted.

No doubt there will be some wheeling and dealing going on..it should be an interesting time

 

[LittleG]

thanks for that KM. Last question for now I promise. Should the crows end up with pick 2 (ie 17th place finish), do you see more value in looking to trade down to grab an extra 1st rounder (ie pick 2 for say a late top 10 pick and another 1st if such a scenario was to present), or to stick with the next best pick after Horne and the 2 x F/S picks?

Personally I wouldn’t trade the pick.
As much as you can highlight getting two good players, the cream is usually in the top 5. This year a player will improve at a rapid rate and enter the top 5 conversation. Players to have done that recently are Oliver, Bontempelli and McDonald. None were being talked about as being top 10 but their draft stock rose during their u18 year.

 

[briztoon]

A point of conversation at the moment for me feels like the lack of worthwhile talls in this draft pool. Darcy has been widely spoken about and rightly, but the performance from Andrew on Friday has him for me moving into the top-15 mix and I'm certainly more comfortable than I was with him as a KPP. After that though, I can't say there is a single other I'd consider worth selecting inside the first round at this stage.

For those wanting more on Andrew I've posted my AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Melbourne Next-Generation Academy prospect Mac Andrew plus a comprehensive look at the Victorians on the rise from the Metro v Country clash which can be found on page 1/in my signature/on my Twitter.

How much have you seen of the four WA KPP’s?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Yeah, but IMO he hasn’t translated barely any that to SANFL.

For a guy who keep getting described as having no weaknesses he’s shown plenty at that level.

The high flying overhead contested marking and ability to hit the scoreboard hasn’t happened. Neither has the accumulation, which has meant he isn’t able to get proper midfield minutes.

Sure there is the occasional flash, enough for a quick video gif. But it’s not shown consistently (apart from the defensive side of his game).

I’m not buying this playing against men slant either. There have been plenty of 18 year old draftee’s, who following getting drafted were only 6-9month older than Horne is now, and have performed right off the bat in the VFL or other state leagues.

He has barely if ever played midfield time in the SANFL. Maybe the odd centre bounce but usually stuck at a HFF or deep.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Tyler Sonsie did pretty well in his Box Hill game

Sonsie was pretty good but that's the best game you'll ever see from Sonsie at that level and he played fulltime mid compared to Horne who barely does.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hey Knightmare i want your opinion and thoughts as to why Callow isn't performing as well at VFL level than he did at SANFL level. I have mine but wanna know yours.

 

[Knightmare]

How much have you seen of the four WA KPP’s?

To date this year.

Williams three games.

Van Rooyen two.

Bazzo two.

Amiss once.

Amiss is the one I'd like to see more of. Williams I've seen enough and would feel comfortable taking in the second round if looking for a key forward. Van Rooyen I want to see in defence. Bazzo hasn't done anything to make me want to watch more.

Hey Knightmare i want your opinion and thoughts as to why Callow isn't performing as well at VFL level than he did at SANFL level. I have mine but wanna know yours.

I've yet to see Callow in the VFL but from what others I've spoken to have suggested, he has been utilised as the number two target behind Jeka which has come across in the stats.

Do you have an alternative theory?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

To date this year.

Williams three games.

Van Rooyen two.

Bazzo two.

Amiss once.

Amiss is the one I'd like to see more of. Williams I've seen enough and would feel comfortable taking in the second round if looking for a key forward. Van Rooyen I want to see in defence. Bazzo hasn't done anything to make me want to watch more.



I've yet to see Callow in the VFL but from what others I've spoken to have suggested, he has been utilised as the number two target behind Jeka which has come across in the stats.

Do you have an alternative theory?

Nah that's what i think too, he's playing a CHF/FF mix with Jeka, where they swap heaps but if Jeka and Callow are both leading they'll go to Jeka alot more and most of the time Jeka/Callow find themselves both at CHF and pushing up the ground due to Keegan Brooksby, Brooksby can't play CHF so he sits in the square and rotates with Ned Reeves (not that often.)

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Knightmare Thoughts on if Hawthorn get Finn Callaghan with Pick 2 (pushes to 3/4 with bids). And a chance at getting lets say Bazzo type key defender (plays with DGB the fellow Swans District man) and get a mid-fwd impact player with the other 2nd round pick, who would be that 2nd round pick mid-fwd, tell me abit about them and also give me some more info on Bazzo or another key defender around the 2nd round.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare Thoughts on if Hawthorn get Finn Callaghan with Pick 2 (pushes to 3/4 with bids). And a chance at getting lets say Bazzo type key defender (plays with DGB the fellow Swans District man) and get a mid-fwd impact player with the other 2nd round pick, who would be that 2nd round pick mid-fwd, tell me abit about them and also give me some more info on Bazzo or another key defender around the 2nd round.

Callaghan to that second pick is possible once Daicos and Darcy have been bid on. He's at this stage sounding like the favourite in fact.

If I'm picking though he's not my preference at this stage though as I've found him back out a few times when he needed to go win his own ball or lay a key tackle, I'd feel a lot more confident in a Roberts or a Ward at this stage, but Callaghan is one of those high risk/high reward picks where if he works out because he has some special gifts, that pick could really work out.

Bazzo hasn't done anything with me in the games I've seen and I can't say I'd pair him with DGB either, as frankly with both of them, they might not quite be genuine key defenders and may end up more your third talls as they're both lighter types. I'd rather pair a DGB with a Callow for example if I had to rely on DGB as a key defender just because I can rely on a Callow to take those who are stronger 1v1. Bazzo I'm looking at as a future state leaguer at this stage, he's not one at this stage I'd be drafting, though perhaps the lack of continuity is hurting him as he's being asked to play at both ends of the field which never seems to help talls with gaining confidence, so I wouldn't rule him out entirely as a prospect, but I'm very much sceptical at this point in time and certainly in the second round wouldn't be investing if that's what I had to spend to secure him.

As for a second round mid/fwd. There are a fair few. Tyler Sonsie could drop. Connor MacDonald if there would provide excellent value. Hugh Jackson could play a bit of both. Ned Long has some scope. Judson Clarke possibly though he's more a forward who maybe you push back. Hugh Stagg later in the second round or in the third round has some power and could provide another alternative.

 

[Anythings_sipposible]

Not sure if it's already been asked, and sorry if it has, but how do you rate the Saints two NGAs Windhager and Owens? Any chance Windhager gets drafted, and any risk of Owens going top 20?

 

[Knightmare]

Not sure if it's already been asked, and sorry if it has, but how do you rate the Saints two NGAs Windhager and Owens? Any chance Windhager gets drafted, and any risk of Owens going top 20?

Both are in the mix having played for Vic Metro and both showing some signs though they're both more second half of draft picks than first half of draft.

Owens doesn't look like a top-20 pick and was even a late callup for Friday's game, though his performance definitely elevates his stocks and more of those games should mean a club bids on him at some point.

 

[Rusty Beam]

He has barely if ever played midfield time in the SANFL. Maybe the odd centre bounce but usually stuck at a HFF or deep.

IMO he’s been plenty of opportunity to show his wares for the Panthers in the middle. If he was performing at a higher level, more consistently and with higher production, he’d be getting more game time there. He’s also got the chance to push his case on the training track which can’t be ignored in South’s decision making.

Sure it’s probably the best Sonsie will do for Box Hill, given he’s probably unlikely to play another game for them. Not sure off the back of one decent performance you can make an informed opinion that it’s his high point though.

Edit: What’s with the obvious state vs state angst/bravado (even about draftees) from posters on here? Seriously I don’t get it…

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Callaghan to that second pick is possible once Daicos and Darcy have been bid on. He's at this stage sounding like the favourite in fact.

If I'm picking though he's not my preference at this stage though as I've found him back out a few times when he needed to go win his own ball or lay a key tackle, I'd feel a lot more confident in a Roberts or a Ward at this stage, but Callaghan is one of those high risk/high reward picks where if he works out because he has some special gifts, that pick could really work out.

Bazzo hasn't done anything with me in the games I've seen and I can't say I'd pair him with DGB either, as frankly with both of them, they might not quite be genuine key defenders and may end up more your third talls as they're both lighter types. I'd rather pair a DGB with a Callow for example if I had to rely on DGB as a key defender just because I can rely on a Callow to take those who are stronger 1v1. Bazzo I'm looking at as a future state leaguer at this stage, he's not one at this stage I'd be drafting, though perhaps the lack of continuity is hurting him as he's being asked to play at both ends of the field which never seems to help talls with gaining confidence, so I wouldn't rule him out entirely as a prospect, but I'm very much sceptical at this point in time and certainly in the second round wouldn't be investing if that's what I had to spend to secure him.

As for a second round mid/fwd. There are a fair few. Tyler Sonsie could drop. Connor MacDonald if there would provide excellent value. Hugh Jackson could play a bit of both. Ned Long has some scope. Judson Clarke possibly though he's more a forward who maybe you push back. Hugh Stagg later in the second round or in the third round has some power and could provide another alternative.

Cheers. On Finn he suits us best so that’s why I’d grab him and yeah not sure on a key defender yet.

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers. On Finn he suits us best so that’s why I’d grab him and yeah not sure on a key defender yet.

I should also add with key defenders this year, and same goes with key forwards, it's not a great draft for them. There will be years where there are more who are worthwhile at their picks, this year it feels like clubs will overpay, with Gibcus one such example where he's being spoken about as an early pick but possibly shouldn't.

 

[Thunderstruck]

Yeah well you’re obvious entitled to your opinion, but I still disagree.

IMO since 2001, most of the key position no.1’s would still have been taken before him (or Daicos for that matter). JUH, Patton, Boyd, Kreuzer (ruck I know) and Watts.

McCartin is probably the only one you’d say wasn’t the absolute standout, with Petracca being close to being selected no1.

Even midfielders like Whitfield, Swallow and Scully had incredibly dominant junior lead ups and were so far and away the leading number 1 candidate it’s not funny.

Obviously the majority have ultimately proven not to live up to the billing, but that doesn’t change their standing at the time they were drafted.

Personally I think it’s rewriting history with the benefit of hindsight.

There's no hindsight here when I've been around watching those same kids since the late 90's and can remember every single one of them in their junior years and their abilities and performances. Pretty easy to make an order on that.

 

[Dave06]

Hi KM,
Appreciate your work mate.

Feel free to point me to another post if this has been covered already…
But it seems to me that Daicos is having as dominant a season at the level as anyone ever has.. have there been as/more dominant seasons in recent history?
Also, how do you rate young Dib?

 

[Rusty Beam]

There's no hindsight here when I've been around watching those same kids since the late 90's and can remember every single one of them in their junior years and their abilities and performances. Pretty easy to make an order on that.

It’s about where recruiters would rate them in your hypothetical open draft. As much as you rate your talent ID.

IMO there is no chance Daicos/Horne would be taken before the list I mentioned. Do you really think Horne/Daicos would be taken before Boyd?

Seriously what’s the deal with SA posters pinning their flag to Horne in some weird show of state loyalty?

 

[PMBangers]

It’s about where recruiters would rate them in your hypothetical open draft.

IMO there is no chance Daicos/Horne would be taken before the list I mentioned. Do you really think Horne/Daicos would be taken before Boyd?

Seriously what’s the deal with SA posters pinning their flag to Horne in some weird show of state loyalty?

Pretty key here, it's a matter of opinion, not many people that have seen enough to form their own change that just from what others say

 

[Rusty Beam]

Pretty key here, it's a matter of opinion, not many people that have seen enough to form their own change that just from what others say

Absolutely, nor should they. Agreeing to disagree amicably is a wonderful thing.

 

[Chris25]

Seriously what’s the deal with SA posters pinning their flag to Horne in some weird show of state loyalty?

It’s okay. Just because people rate Horne higher, it doesn’t mean Daicos is bad.

 

[Rusty Beam]

It’s okay. Just because people rate Horne higher, it doesn’t mean Daicos is bad.

Case in point.

 

[Chris25]

Case in point.

So I rate Horne higher than Daicos because of state loyalty? Not because I genuinely think he’s the better prospect

I could make the same statement that you’re continually talking him down as a show of support to Daicos as a Collingwood fan.

Both players are allowed to be good. Don’t worry.

 

[PyrrhicVic]

Both players are allowed to be good. Don’t worry.

What’s a good player to the Messiah? Repent your blasphemous ways and join the Holy Church of Daicos

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,
Appreciate your work mate.

Feel free to point me to another post if this has been covered already…
But it seems to me that Daicos is having as dominant a season at the level as anyone ever has.. have there been as/more dominant seasons in recent history?
Also, how do you rate young Dib?

Statistically in the NAB League Daicos' season comes out favourably as there isn't anyone that comes to mind to have him beat both in disposals and goals per game, he's in the absolute uber elite in both categories by position. So in some respects it could be looked at as the most dominant. The important factors to consider in that equation though are when Daicos gets 40d, it feels more like 25-30d as he does get a lot of cheap ball around the ground, so there are others at the same age/stage who have definitely been more influential as he's more medium than high impact per possession - with his disposals in congestion where he's in that Pendlebury-like way doing damaging. He's also facing the weakest NAB League competition that I've seen in recent years, so that's another component to be aware of. Daicos is my #1 this year at this point, but he's not one where I feel he'll necessarily become one of the premier say 5 mids in the competition.

Dib is one the Pies should be looking at as he's that lively ground level type, who really goes for his tackles and plays with a lot of aggression. He's one of those where he bobs up and has his moments. Super clean and one of the few who still looks good in the wet. There is the potential for him to be a role player up forward at AFL level which is the appeal. He's one I'd prefer as a rookie to secure, but would say certainly if another club bid on him in the second round I'd pass on. He's definitely someone the Pies should be and no doubt will be tracking closely. At this stage he's inside my top-50 power rankings, but in the 40-50 range to get more specific as to where I personally rate him.