Analysis Lygon's Blues, Coffee & Brews

[LordLucifer]

For the sake that you obviously have failed to read the thread from the beginning I will repost just for you.

"I understand that we are at the very beginning of our rebuild and agree with everyone in that we need to blood our youngsters to give them a taste of first football. Having said that, I still believe it is essential for an older core of player so as to not overwork and burn out these young players coming through.
I wanted to highlight a couple of players that I believe could prove worthwhile acquisitions by the club via a possible trade, the draft, players out of contract or free agency..... Obviously with such a young list there may be more outgoing players than those coming in as the younger guys step up."

In no way shape of form have I made any mention of comparing these players together. This society that you refer to us as, simply sat down and each put up a few players for discussion that could help the club on rising up the ladder. I rate Hogan a lot higher than both Gunston and Lynch but grouped them together as all three could make an immediate impact.
I actually rate both Wright and Moore equal if not higher than Boyd also so lets forget the million dollar tag for a second.
All the above players as stated would cost us in draft picks as well as in the wallet.
Jack Watts however is a restricted free agent and seeing as we are at the beginning of our rebuild, a positive in acquiring him would be he only costs the club $$$.

If you aren't a fan of him that is fine, and in all honesty he wouldn't be my first choice.

Anyway, I'm very happy my post was seen so provocative and sparked you into joining the debate. Secret Society out!

Don't worry Hal, I did read all of your post.

It's nice in theory to offer up a list of up & coming key position players and say we should recruit them but I was really looking forward to reading something from the learned members of the Society on how they think the club could actually snag one of them.

Thing is, if Hogan does come on the market, the money that will be thrown at him will make Tom Boyd's deal look like the contents of a street buskers upturned hat.

 

[HalAlaric]

Don't worry Hal, I did read all of your post.

It's nice in theory to offer up a list of up & coming key position players and say we should recruit them but I was really looking forward to reading something from the learned members of the Society on how they think the club could actually snag one of them.

Thing is, if Hogan does come on the market, the money that will be thrown at him will make Tom Boyd's deal look like the contents of a street buskers upturned hat.

Unfortunately, it's very hard to predict what could be spent for any of the players without the season playing out. Our draft order and players value from both our list and the prospects will determine what we would be able to offer.

 

[LordLucifer]

Unfortunately, it's very hard to predict what could be spent for any of the players without the season playing out. Our draft order and players value from both our list and the prospects will determine what we would be able to offer.

Don't worry about the salary cap or the draft order, we know we get a first rounder and a second rounder etc etc.

What I'd like to read is what would be the compelling selling points put to each player to consider so they would see us as a real destination. The selling points may be different from player to player too, they would have to be tailored to suit.

 

[ShanDog]

Don't worry Hal, I did read all of your post.

It's nice in theory to offer up a list of up & coming key position players and say we should recruit them but I was really looking forward to reading something from the learned members of the Society on how they think the club could actually snag one of them.

Thing is, if Hogan does come on the market, the money that will be thrown at him will make Tom Boyd's deal look like the contents of a street buskers upturned hat.

I'm not so sure. Comparable maybe, but if Boyd doesn't show a fair bit this season I think list managers for most clubs will be pretty hesitant to sign super long and high priced contracts. I guess Hogan is a bit different as he is effectively proven as a forward.

 

[HalAlaric]

Don't worry about the salary cap or the draft order, we know we get a first rounder and a second rounder etc etc.

What I'd like to read is what would be the compelling selling points put to each player to consider so they would see us as a real destination. The selling points may be different from player to player too, they would have to be tailored to suit.

You can't not consider the value and order when talking trades.
Look at OMeara and how people are already of the opinion that his knees are shot. Is his value the same as it once was?
What if players from our list who wish to move on end up AA? Won't their value be higher than right now?

 

[BluStreak]

Thoughts on should we target J Stewart GWS next trade period.
What does he need to achieve to be of value and what would we need to show for him to consider joining our team?

 

[Coona Blues]

Thoughts on should we target J Stewart GWS next trade period.
What does he need to achieve to be of value and what would we need to show for him to consider joining our team?

Has already shown sufficient to justify himself as a legitimate target. How high is the ceiling, that is the question?
Does he remain a 3rd tall come pinch hitting ruckman, or with the opportunity which won't present at GWS, can
he become a genuine quality KPF.

Will almost assuredly remain behind Cameron and Patton in the pecking order. They have Tomlinson and possibly (read unlikely) McCarthy to perform a similar role. Himmelberg was drafted at 16 last year and Finlayson is another Academy key forward who was used in defence in the NEAFL last year seemingly because of their forward depth.

Then of course they have Macreadie touted as a top 5 draft pick KPF this year and Zac Sproule, another academy boy touted as a high draft pick.

I suspect they will want to play a second genuine ruck to support Mumford, and for development. That leaves Lobb to play 3rd tall/ruck alongside Stevie J, Cameron and Patton.

Unless Stewart can absolutely dominate early season, I suspect his GWS season may be spent in the NEAFL, making
him a very likely trade target. If they don't play him, should be gettable for a mid second rounder or possibly less, one would think. The flip side is that if he plays, Tomlinson pretty much doesn't, leaving him gettable.

The sticking point will be the price in terms of picks for either. Surely we will want to use at least our own first and second rounders in a good midfielder's draft. In my opinion we have enough midfield strength to allow us to use the draft rather than chasing high end trades.

 

[ajb72]

I think this thread would have more usefulness if the names put up as potential recruits were realistic.
Putting a wish list of the best defenders/forwards in the country where even if they wanted to come here (not contracted etc..), the cost involved in terms of trades & money would be destabilising to the development of the group and appears contrary to the current process.

How about list names from clubs which are would be target able and realistically gettable (ie start with free agents, then players coming out of contract, and then players not really getting a go).

 

[LordLucifer]

How about list names from clubs which are would be target able and realistically gettable (ie start with free agents, then players coming out of contract, and then players not really getting a go).

Excellent.

 

[HalAlaric]

I think this thread would have more usefulness if the names put up as potential recruits were realistic.
Putting a wish list of the best defenders/forwards in the country where even if they wanted to come here (not contracted etc..), the cost involved in terms of trades & money would be destabilising to the development of the group and appears contrary to the current process.

How about list names from clubs which are would be target able and realistically gettable (ie start with free agents, then players coming out of contract, and then players not really getting a go).

Are all of these players unattainable? I agree on the fact that the (ii - KPF) section has quite a few that are unrealistic during our rebuild but they were put up solely on the aim high philosophy. The group, upon analysing this section has unified confidence on the direction of the forward line with the new draftees. Our defence on the other had is extremely week hence why a lot more options were added that could actually make the move.

In response to you stating both defenders and forwards I think May, Marchbank, Andrews, Schofield, Brown, Pears, Lynch, Watts, and Wright are all realistic to consider.

Yes, our club is touted as the worst in the league. Yes, we have suffered and been seen as having a terrible culture. Both I believe have already been identified with work being done to rectify. It's going to come down to this season and how many further positives are shown to whether players would contemplate switching clubs and putting on the Navy Blue. And we have had plenty of new recruits like Docherty, Plowman, Kerridge, Phillips, Sumner, Lamb, Jones, Tutt, Jaksch, and Whiley who have made the move to suggest we are still somewhat of a destination club.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I think this thread would have more usefulness if the names put up as potential recruits were realistic.
Putting a wish list of the best defenders/forwards in the country where even if they wanted to come here (not contracted etc..), the cost involved in terms of trades & money would be destabilising to the development of the group and appears contrary to the current process.

How about list names from clubs which are would be target able and realistically gettable (ie start with free agents, then players coming out of contract, and then players not really getting a go).

We have to remember this is a write up of what his friends (coaches, ex players, average joes) are discussing at these meet ups). He can hardly change what was discussed to mould to BF expectations.

However, we can give feedback about the group's observations. It's fine to suggest trade targets are unrealistic if you outline why.

The concept will live or die based on how useful each of us find it. To change it up the OP will have to have more input into discussions and flesh out some conversations ... how much would we pay, is it realistic etc.

Also want to know who disagrees with who. Does an ex AFL player hold a different view to a school coach for example?

HalAlaric do your friends know you are writing this up. Would they discuss opposing views?

 

[HalAlaric]

Also want to know who disagrees with who. Does an ex AFL player hold a different view to a school coach for example?

HalAlaric do your friends know you are writing this up. Would they discuss opposing views?

I mentioned it to them on Sunday although not to great depth.

To coincide with your request I will move on to more of a he say's this and the other guy retorts during the other parts, which will begin round 1 of the season. For now and with this list management discussion we are all pretty calm, collected and in agreement to what's being put out there, so I haven't seen much point. If that changes I will definitely be sure to add.

 

[BluStreak]

HalAlaric thanks for doing this, I'm enjoying it.

 

[HalAlaric]

Before we resume the next section I want to touch base on the player consideration brought up by BluStreak in James Stewart (GWS).

Although 'Mike' had worked with James in the past, a small amount of research was needed to be done by the rest of us to competently be able to discuss any benefits of an acquisition.
Footage was reviewed and stat sheets were analysed before we all sat down over a few brews and broke it down.
Mike began stating that he remembered J.Stewart as a 'tireless worker' on the field and showed 'great composure' and 'flashes of brilliance'. He wasn't able to provide us with any old stat sheets but recalled 2 or 3 games with the kid kicking 5+ goals.
The rest of us immediately dismissed most of this and accused him of being biased, having had the kid play under him. Instead we decided to focus more on his AFL career and after many a match up, deemed that he would be below swing man Jaksch in club position. This was made up of his averaging of only 1.2 goals a season as a stand-up forward whilst collecting a low and inconsistent rate of possessions over his three seasons. He is still very young though and does hold a few reasonable highlights but we all, except Mark who believes he would be a 'handy forward foil', concluded that he was to be passed on.
If you wish to have a look at his stats check them out at:
http://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/J/James_Stewart.html

Thanks again for the prospect and would enjoy to hear any more possible acquisitions people have for us to consider.
A lot remains to publish before Sunday with #1(iii) - RUCK STOCKS and the my personal favourite area of the ground #1(iv) - MIDFIELD to be posted. Stay tuned.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I like the debate. 'Mike' should recognise work rate and I'm not sure Jaksch has shown that. Also we know Stewart has more forward points than KJ. On this preseason, I'd have Stewart in front as far as forward targets go.

Going with Mike ... tentatively.

 

[HalAlaric]

I like the debate. 'Mike' should recognise work rate and I'm not sure Jaksch has shown that. Also we know Stewart has more forward points than KJ. On this preseason, I'd have Stewart in front as far as forward targets go.

Going with Mike ... tentatively.

Would you look to recruit him? By all our understanding he would come in at our third round pick due to his current clubs development in him and the huge spike of games he played in 2015.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Would you look to recruit him? By all our understanding he would come in at our third round pick due to his current clubs development in him and the huge spike of games he played in 2015.

Based on the way he leads out and launches at the ball, I would for the right price. The disclaimer is that we have time to evaluate Jaksch and Foster more this year first.

 

[Omega Blue]

Stewart for a third rounder I'd jump at.
Proven afl quality never honinggoing to be a superstar but could do worse with a third rounder and unlikely to do better.
Only stipulation is we may have our third rounder ear marked to package to a academy club for a lower pick

 

[Jeremias]

There's no way GWS would look to move Stewart for a 3rd round pick but you'd have to jump at the opportunity should it arise.

At this stage he is very raw but there aren't many around the league at his height and with his athleticism. Not sure he'll ever be the type to command a key position spot but as a 3rd tall who can push up the ground he's a very daunting player to match up on.

If he was looking for a fresh start back in Victoria I dare say every club would be interested & it wouldn't surprise should a first round pick be put on the table in exchange.

 

[thylacine60]

Agree, J. First rounder seems steep although when you factor in the other clubs chasing him......he went 27 in his year.

 

[HalAlaric]

But now it's time for the continuation of PART 1 - LIST MANAGEMENT.
#1(iii) - RUCK STOCKS

As with the forwards I am actually pretty happy with the direction in which the club has taken on this position. A total of three were recruited to bring our tally to five and although one was done as more of a media push and experiment, the other two were purchased in an extremely inexpensive fashion.
For the beginning of the 2017 season Cameron Wood will be aged 30, Matthew Kreuzer 27, Mathew Korcheck (Int. Rookie) 25, Andrew Phillips 25, and Daniel Corringe 24.
Cameron Wood: After joining Carlton via the rookie draft and having spells at both the Lions and Pies, Wood was put to work straight away in replacement of the injured Kreuzer and under performing Warnock. Acting as a terrific servant of the club there wasn't many games in which he didn't put in his all. Bad decision making as well as countless skill errors though let a lot of this good work down, so with the new recruits it may be time for Wood to relinquish his spot.
Daniel Corringe: Chosen by GCS with pick #10 in the 2011 draft,; Corringe, whether by injury, form or skill, was always below Zach Smith and Tom Nicholls in the ruck order.
Joining Carlton as a delisted free agent he is seen as an extremely athletic player with a giant tank and a solid leap. Having cost us only a spot on the list and some cap room, any good performances from Corringe should be deemed as positive and thus his acquisition a win. In saying that, if he cannot improve tremendously in his ball use and ball winning ability it may be wiser to not persevere and to rookie him in the future. Hopefully with the high number of ruckmen we hold he can mature and improve through training against a variety of ruck partners.
Matthew Kreuzer: No going to delve into The Kreuz too much as it's pretty self explanatory. Although he doesn't accumulate large numbers of hit outs like the conventional kinds, when he's out on the park our team has a totally different dynamic. He plays like a midfielder.
Unfortunately, due to his injury plagued seasons we have to consider the possibility that his body cannot last an entire year of footy and who is next to come up the ranks. He played the final 13 games last year and preformed well. I actually believe his injury concerns with the help of monitoring his workload will be a thing of the past, so probably should have left him off this list.

By seasons end you could gauge properly but I believe this to be the most secure of our positions and doubt whether we need to entertain either drafting or trading.
To continue with the process and recommend a couple of players all info is based on coming into the 2017 season.
THE GUY(s) WITH IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Jarrod Witts (COL - 24yo - 2.09m) - A strong but mobile ruckman who will certainly be seen as elite in the near distant future. Behind Grundy as first choice, Witts is very highly rated at the club internally and by its supporters. The highlight of last season was his game high 37 disposals against GWS and Shane Mumford.
In the case of major injuries to our stocks, Witts would be extremely valuable to us. The cost of acquiring his services though would be just too high to entertain.
ALTERNATIVELY (Valued at a pick in the range of #35-55)

• Michael Apeness (FREO - 23yo - 2.01m)
• Braydon Preuss (NM - 22yo - 2.05m)
• Tom Read (GEE - 21yo - 2m)

DRAFT 2016

• Jeremy Goddard (19yo - 2.02m)

LAST RESORT RFA/UFA (and because they are CHEAP at least in pick sense)
NONE

Thanks for reading and for any comments you post or discussions you wish to have. I feel there may be many other possible candidates that I failed to raise so feel free to share.
Stay tuned for the next section in the list management part. #1(iv) - MIDFIELD

 

[MrsEddieBetts]

Woah how often do you guys catch up!

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Woah how often do you guys catch up!

Maybe breaking up the one convo into segments.

 

[ajb72]

But now it's time for the continuation of PART 1 - LIST MANAGEMENT.
#1(iii) - RUCK STOCKS

As with the forwards I am actually pretty happy with the direction in which the club has taken on this position. A total of three were recruited to bring our tally to five and although one was done as more of a media push and experiment, the other two were purchased in an extremely inexpensive fashion.
For the beginning of the 2017 season Cameron Wood will be aged 30, Matthew Kreuzer 27, Mathew Korcheck (Int. Rookie) 25, Andrew Phillips 25, and Daniel Corringe 24.
Cameron Wood: After joining Carlton via the rookie draft and having spells at both the Lions and Pies, Wood was put to work straight away in replacement of the injured Kreuzer and under performing Warnock. Acting as a terrific servant of the club there wasn't many games in which he didn't put in his all. Bad decision making as well as countless skill errors though let a lot of this good work down, so with the new recruits it may be time for Wood to relinquish his spot.
Daniel Corringe: Chosen by GCS with pick #10 in the 2011 draft,; Corringe, whether by injury, form or skill, was always below Zach Smith and Tom Nicholls in the ruck order.
Joining Carlton as a delisted free agent he is seen as an extremely athletic player with a giant tank and a solid leap. Having cost us only a spot on the list and some cap room, any good performances from Corringe should be deemed as positive and thus his acquisition a win. In saying that, if he cannot improve tremendously in his ball use and ball winning ability it may be wiser to not persevere and to rookie him in the future. Hopefully with the high number of ruckmen we hold he can mature and improve through training against a variety of ruck partners.
Matthew Kreuzer: No going to delve into The Kreuz too much as it's pretty self explanatory. Although he doesn't accumulate large numbers of hit outs like the conventional kinds, when he's out on the park our team has a totally different dynamic. He plays like a midfielder.
Unfortunately, due to his injury plagued seasons we have to consider the possibility that his body cannot last an entire year of footy and who is next to come up the ranks. He played the final 13 games last year and preformed well. I actually believe his injury concerns with the help of monitoring his workload will be a thing of the past, so probably should have left him off this list.

By seasons end you could gauge properly but I believe this to be the most secure of our positions and doubt whether we need to entertain either drafting or trading.
To continue with the process and recommend a couple of players all info is based on coming into the 2017 season.
THE GUY(s) WITH IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Jarrod Witts (COL - 24yo - 2.09m) - A strong but mobile ruckman who will certainly be seen as elite in the near distant future. Behind Grundy as first choice, Witts is very highly rated at the club internally and by its supporters. The highlight of last season was his game high 37 disposals against GWS and Shane Mumford.
In the case of major injuries to our stocks, Witts would be extremely valuable to us. The cost of acquiring his services though would be just too high to entertain.
ALTERNATIVELY (Valued at a pick in the range of #35-55)

• Michael Apeness (FREO - 23yo - 2.01m)
• Braydon Preuss (NM - 22yo - 2.05m)
• Tom Read (GEE - 21yo - 2m)

DRAFT 2016

• Jeremy Goddard (19yo - 2.02m)

LAST RESORT RFA/UFA (and because they are CHEAP at least in pick sense)
NONE

Thanks for reading and for any comments you post or discussions you wish to have. I feel there may be many other possible candidates that I failed to raise so feel free to share.
Stay tuned for the next section in the list management part. #1(iv) - MIDFIELD

Would like to hear thoughts on Korcheck & Phillips and whether you guys think they have any future.

As for the guys listed for impact, well I don't see any of them being much of an upgrade TBH. Don't rate Witts in the slightest.

 

[Coona Blues]

Would like to hear thoughts on Korcheck & Phillips and whether you guys think they have any future.

As for the guys listed for impact, well I don't see any of them being much of an upgrade TBH. Don't rate Witts in the slightest.

Witts would be a great get, but another one of those impossibles barring sacrificing the draft.

Phillips and Gorringe looking like second stringers at best, are never going to assume the mantle of a
genuine no. 1 ruck. High hopes for Korcheck if the can master the skills. Jury out for a while, already 25 so we need a long term class option.

Through the draft:
Jeremy Goddard was good rucking for WA in his underage year. Likely to be the highest ruck pick.
There are other options
SA boy Jordon Sweet also with the Academy squad, listed at 203cm and 105kg and touted as a Kreuzer type.
Sudanese Tony Olango who is now concentrating on our game after missing out on a European soccer trial/scholarship. Listed 201/80. From Northern Territory.
Luke Strnadica 199cm Forward / Ruck from WA.
Peter Ladhams from SA played as an underager this year listed 202/90 may be more Forward/Ruck by some reports.
Sean Darcy from Geelong Falcons listed at 200/111 (big boy) and is well regarded. Another Sudanese Liam Maze. There are of course some older boys developing in state leagues.

I am convinced we need to draft/rookie a young ruck, and embrace the draft.