Official NAB 2010 Draft Rumors/Predictions/Preferences...

[Pariah]

Am a bit depressed this morning after watching F1 qualifying last night so thought I would put my 2 cents worth in for our picks in this years draft. I obviously haven't seen as much of most of them as some of the guys on here, only highlights packages and what I saw of the championships, but for what it's worth these are my impressions.

Don't want:
Smith - Gets it a lot but doesn't seem to have elite pace off the mark and his kick worries me and I felt he has never been closely tagged and might struggle if he isn't left on his own. Reminds me of Ebert going into the 08 draft, safe pick but not going to take your club to the next level.
Smedts - Just doesn't excite me and think he lacks elite pace and has developed the Tyson Edwards habit of doubling back a lot to make up for it. This must cause life for the forward to be so difficult and play into zoning teams hands.
Prestia - Not so much that I don't rate him, as he ticks nearly all the boxes and has great strength through the hips in breaking tackles but just that his height makes him a risk that I don't think we can afford and don't need to take.

Want but won't get:
Josh Caddy - Just an inside clearance machine with great pace and that self confidence to back himself and take off straight towards goal that you could see with Dabgerfield on his early highlights. Would make our midfield balance start to look elite.
Gaff - Fast, fit, predominantly outside player that uses the ball really well and will only improve. Like Caddy would fit into our midfield beautifully.

Hope we get:
Pitt - Just looks a jet to me. Fast, great skills that will only get better, uses it well, kicks goals, tackles well and seems very team oriented and unselfish. Fairly slight at the moment but has the frame to fill out. Only concern is if he gets it enough.
Atley - Good allround midfielder. good pace without being lightning, backs himself, seems to tackle well, has a good size and awareness. Might be a slight question on his kicking and how much he hurts the opposition going forward but I would be happy to hear his name.
Would also be happy with Jacobs or Aaron Young
Special mention to Jed Lamb and Harper. Both look like brilliant prospects to me that will enhance two clubs forward lines for years, but we just need so much to add a genuine A grade midfielder to our list that I don't think they would be the right choice unless they have midfield potential in the future.

Hopes for pick 61:
Milera - I know that he is small, but that won't matter if no one can lay a glove on him. Just has so many positives and potential that you would have to grab him if he is available. Unfortunately don't think he will be there but fingers crossed. Not sure about his tackling pressure which would be vital in the role that we would use him in but his technique looks sound and just has that natural talent for evasion and goal sense.
Horlin-Smith - Can mark and kick both sides and finds space and is obviously a potentially elite athlete but like most people I haven't seen much of him. Got to worry about his skills, especially his kicking from the highlights that I have seen, but with the hype around him he must have some great potential. His silky movement over the ground reminds me a lot of a young Peter Motley (not in his skills, just something in how he moves) which might be influencing me but would be happy to take a chance on him.

Roll on the 18th.

Tim Milera has improved his tackling pressure. Port Adelaide Magpies coach Tony Bamford told him to lay 7 tackles in a reserves match if he wanted to play in the seniors and he was upto the challenge laying 9 tackles.

http://www.afl.com.au/tabid/208/default.aspx?newsid=105032

Horlin Smith will be gone by the time we have our 2nd pick.

 

[BACCS]

Anyone else care to comment on this one...?

So I gather you went to school with him for 10 years, and have been mates for the past 6? No worries, just wanted to clear that up.

 

[FAITH]

Does anyone take notice of what I am saying here, he isn't a midfielder! I have known the guy for 10 years, and know a heck of a lot more about his footy history than anyone on here. I'm not trying to sound arrogant, I just don't want people to get their hopes up about it happening. If we want to go for a midfielder at pick 14, Brodie Smith is the way to go. If we want another offensive defender/part time foward, Sebby is the way to go.

I'd love it if he played for the team I supported, but the odds of it happening are really slim.

Fair enough, GC are hot favs to get him anyway at 9-11, so we wont have to make that decision.
Interesting to hear that the crows have finalised their list / preparations for the draft.

 

[Chief Crow]

For those interested, Emma Quayle had a Q&A on the Age website

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/blogs/...ayle/20101115-17td4.html?comments=54#comments

Heres a bit she replied to a question about the Crows pick 14

Hi Emma, any news on Adelaide at pick 14? Tape and B.Smith seem to be the names mentioned.

Yep, those two are in the mix as is Ben Jacobs. I have one more midfielder in mind for them too.

 

[Crow-mo]

Have a look at the Christian Howard story from last year and tell me that clubs dont change their mind in the last few days before the draft.
Even the Hawthorn decision to take talls over smalls on draft day.

how does this prove clubs change their mind?

all it proves is WB liked and rated Howard very highly, it says nothing about timing

 

[Crow-mo]

So I gather you went to school with him for 10 years, and have been mates for the past 6? No worries, just wanted to clear that up.

none of which gives you ANY insight into his afl capabilitjes.

Kane Johnson was an AA u/18 CHB. do you think anyone who went to the same school as him was qualified to comment on his potential as a senior midfielder????

That said, is he any relation to Jamie?

 

[Wood_Duck]

none of which gives you ANY insight into his afl capabilitjes.

Kane Johnson was an AA u/18 CHB. do you think anyone who went to the same school as him was qualified to comment on his potential as a senior midfielder????

That said, is he any relation to Jamie?

Craig Kelly was a centreman when I played with him. Nuff said.

 

[Wood_Duck]

Anyone else care to comment on this one...?

For the sake of board harmony I shall refrain. But I hear you Drum.

 

[neddy36]

none of which gives you ANY insight into his afl capabilitjes.

Kane Johnson was an AA u/18 CHB. do you think anyone who went to the same school as him was qualified to comment on his potential as a senior midfielder????

That said, is he any relation to Jamie?

This is correct. Also Tyson Stenglein played the majority of his junior football and was All-Australian at Full Back for WA (correct me if I am wrong).

BACCS, what I was saying has video evidence to back it up.

As for any relation to Jamie, Seb is his second cousin.

 

[FAITH]

how does this prove clubs change their mind?

all it proves is WB liked and rated Howard very highly, it says nothing about timing

WB recruiters stated that they expected to get him as a smokey with their 3rd rounder pretty much days before the draft.
A couple of days pre draft i think Cappel has an article about him, that a couple clubs were interested and possible giving up a 2nd rounder.

WB then had to change tactics quickly and had to use their 1st rounder to get him.
They made a decision that if Talia wasnt available at their 1st round pick they would take Howard, even though he would take a while to develop it was felt long term he would develop into great player.

They change their tactics days before the draft based on an article in the adv.

Interestingly crows expected to get him with ther 2nd rounder.

 

[Mismatched]

WB recruiters stated that they expected to get him as a smokey with their 3rd rounder pretty much days before the draft.
A couple of days pre draft i think Cappel has an article about him, that a couple clubs were interested and possible giving up a 2nd rounder.

WB then had to change tactics quickly and had to use their 1st rounder to get him.
They made a decision that if Talia wasnt available at their 1st round pick they would take Howard, even though he would take a while to develop it was felt long term he would develop into great player.

They change their tactics days before the draft based on an article in the adv.

Interestingly crows expected to get him with ther 2nd rounder.

Yes, but thats just a case of a club having it's hand forced. They didn't change their mind on Howard, they rated him exactly the same as before, only they discovered that they'd have to pay a much higher price for him, a price which they were clearly willing to pay. They didn't suddenly rate him any higher, they were just forced to pay market price. The Bulldogs always thought he was of First Rounder quality, they just thought that they could pick him up for a 3rd rounder, and why wouldn't they.

Tactics regarding drafting are about the only thing that will change before a draft, as club recruiters start chatting and trying to suss out the order and who will be available at their picks etc, they can formulate a bit of a plan. But even then, unless clubs have a couple of picks close together, or a smokey which they want to pick up with a later pick, the plan is generally just best available.

 

[KUNG FU]

A quote worth highlighting from an article Wall-E posted in another thread

"Adelaide has been linked to Geelong Falcons defender/forward Billie Smedts, local midfielder Brodie Smith and Sandringham Dragons ball magnet Ben Jacobs with pick No.14."

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/105249/default.aspx

All are terrific options and very Rendell-esque imo.

 

[KUNG FU]

Smedts is nearly 190cm, very quick & agile, utility (remind you of anyone yet?), has a very good short-medium range kick (helped by the fact he makes the right decision), excellent decision maker, great mark overhead. Will need a while to bulk up, skinny all over. Hasn't really been tested physically before, being able to rely on his pace, agility and most importantly his capacity to out-maneuvre his opponent. Knows where to stand. There are question marks over his tank. Didn't do the 3km at combine, but had reasonable repeat sprints and beep test results, so could flourish in the midfield if given the opportunity. Doesn't get a heck of a lot of the ball which is something that is hard to teach. He's just the kind of candidate I think could be moulded into an elite midfielder in the Adelaide system. Worse case scenario; a very competent Porplyzia/Johncock replacement long term.

 

[FAITH]

A quote worth highlighting from an article Wall-E posted in another thread

"Adelaide has been linked to Geelong Falcons defender/forward Billie Smedts, local midfielder Brodie Smith and Sandringham Dragons ball magnet Ben Jacobs with pick No.14."

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/105249/default.aspx

All are terrific options and very Rendell-esque imo.

Id be shocked if we go Jacobs, isnt a rendell type pick.
Smedts is, very athletic, versatile and competitive. Also we know that rendell likes picking players who were injured during the year and played out of position in championships and therefore undervalued.
Smedts is one i think the other who is not being mentioned is Harper, he is a real beauty, wouldnt suprise me if he goes top 14.

 

[King Elvis]

That said, is he any relation to Jamie?

One of the nicest guys you could've ever hoped to meet.

 

[Drummond]

Smedts is nearly 190cm, very quick & agile, utility (remind you of anyone yet?), has a very good short-medium range kick (helped by the fact he makes the right decision), excellent decision maker, great mark overhead. Will need a while to bulk up, skinny all over. Hasn't really been tested physically before, being able to rely on his pace, agility and most importantly his capacity to out-maneuvre his opponent. Knows where to stand. There are question marks over his tank. Didn't do the 3km at combine, but had reasonable repeat sprints and beep test results, so could flourish in the midfield if given the opportunity. Doesn't get a heck of a lot of the ball which is something that is hard to teach. He's just the kind of candidate I think could be moulded into an elite midfielder in the Adelaide system. Worse case scenario; a very competent Porplyzia/Johncock replacement long term.

You've sold me. Draft this guy please.

 

[FAITH]

You've sold me. Draft this guy please.

He is no.3 on my realistic wish list.
1-Smith;
2-Harper;
3-Smetds;
4-Pitt;

 

[Ticktak]

Does anyone else feel like I do, that is if we take Jacobs or Pitt at pick 14 you are going to feel disapointed on Thursday?

Not saying they will be bad players - because I wouldn't have a clue, in fact they may be a bargin at 14 -but I just want to have that excitement I had when we picked Dangerfield!

Lucky I'm not a recruiter because I would always go the flashy X-factor pick.

Obviously I want the best pick for the future but I really hope it's a player who has some speed and excitement in those youtube clips! I want to be excited on Thursday!!!

 

[Hodgy]

Which is why we should take David Swallow with pick 14 instead.

No need to be facetious. I supplied 4 alternatives who should be available or there abouts at 14 and who will all be good midfielders. I just expressed an opinion about one player who I think will be a good player but just not the dynamic type of player we need. There are no right or wrong opinions at this stage (even uninformed ones like mine), we will have to wait a couple of years to know for sure. I freely admit that most of the experts who see a lot more of these kids than me, think otherwise, but then again these same experts thought Ebert was a gun who we would snap up if available. I'm certainly glad Rendell didn't agree.

 

[Davo75]

Sebastian Tape didn't play in the Elimination Final, as his club didn't, nor did he play in the Qualifying Final straight after the Elimination Final. He did play in the 1st Semi Final a week later.

Finally people, take a pill over who we will draft, hopefully we pick a good one, but it's a lottery. An outstanding junior level footballer does NOT ensure the same player success at senior level.

Remember the following:

Brent Williams
Tom Gilligan
Lance Picioane
Laurence Angwin
Fergus Watts
John Meeson
James Sellar

Hardly anything to write home about there, the last 3 drafts have been better as far as our first pick is concerned!

Relax!

 

[Davo75]

No need to be facetious. I supplied 4 alternatives who should be available or there abouts at 14 and who will all be good midfielders. I just expressed an opinion about one player who I think will be a good player but just not the dynamic type of player we need. There are no right or wrong opinions at this stage (even uninformed ones like mine), we will have to wait a couple of years to know for sure. I freely admit that most of the experts who see a lot more of these kids than me, think otherwise, but then again these same experts thought Ebert was a gun who we would snap up if available. I'm certainly glad Rendell didn't agree.

Made the right call picking Dangerfield instead of Ebert, but I'm suggesting a break out year in 2011, had he played for a better club, his season would've almost been considered so this year!

 

[Mismatched]

Id be shocked if we go Jacobs, isnt a rendell type pick.
Smedts is, very athletic, versatile and competitive. Also we know that rendell likes picking players who were injured during the year and played out of position in championships and therefore undervalued.
Smedts is one i think the other who is not being mentioned is Harper, he is a real beauty, wouldnt suprise me if he goes top 14.

Disagree, I think Jacobs sounds exactly like the type of player we'd pick. I'd think his ability, following distinct criticisms regarding his athletic ability at the 09 U18 cup, to take it upon himself to seek out professional help regarding his short comings and actually fix them would be looked upon extremely highly. I think that's exactly the type of personality that the club would be looking to draft in.

Then there's the fact that he's almost a carbon copy of Simon Goodwin in the way he plays. A long kicking left footer, who's hard at the ball, racks up the possessions, strong over head, similar height/build. Not necessarily saying he's who I want, but if I had to tip us to pick up one player, he's the one I'd go with. Reasonably ready to go, start him off on the HBF in Goody's former role, with an eye towards moving him into the midfield down the track.

Does anyone else feel like I do, that is if we take Jacobs or Pitt at pick 14 you are going to feel disapointed on Thursday?

Not saying they will be bad players - because I wouldn't have a clue, in fact they may be a bargin at 14 -but I just want to have that excitement I had when we picked Dangerfield!

Lucky I'm not a recruiter because I would always go the flashy X-factor pick.

Obviously I want the best pick for the future but I really hope it's a player who has some speed and excitement in those youtube clips! I want to be excited on Thursday!!!

Jacob's most definitely has X-factor though, in that he has a bullet like 60+ metre left foot. That and he racks up the possessions like nothing else. Pitt doesn't rack up the possessions, but is another elite kick of the footy. I don't know how you classify "X-factor", but for mine if they're elite kicks of the footy, as both are regarded as, that's good enough for me.

Besides, I didn't realise there was excitement when we picked up Danger I thought it was shock and compete disbelief, followed by anger, followed by wanting Rendell's head on a platter, for not picking up Ebert.

 

[Ticktak]

Jacob's most definitely has X-factor though, in that he has a bullet like 60+ metre left foot. That and he racks up the possessions like nothing else. Pitt doesn't rack up the possessions, but is another elite kick of the footy. I don't know how you classify "X-factor", but for mine if they're elite kicks of the footy, as both are regarded as, that's good enough for me.

Besides, I didn't realise there was excitement when we picked up Danger I thought it was shock and compete disbelief, followed by anger, followed by wanting Rendell's head on a platter, for not picking up Ebert.

Personally I was pumped when we picked Dangerfield. Like most of us I had no idea how good or bad he was going to be but his highlights just excited me. I'm just talking about what excites me when we initialy draft a player. I like to dream for a few months about how they are going to take the game on with pace and then reality hits one way or the other once the real games start

I have no doubt Pitt & Jacobs are really really talented. I'm just talking how I personaly will feel on thursday. I want to invisage pre-season training reports of Prestia or Smedts cutting through traffic in internal practice games. Burning off Dangerfield

Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to start a who is a better pick etc etc. (because I have no idea). I'm just talking from a personal point of view of how I will feel on thursday and over the next few months. Just an individual thing and wanted to see if anyone else felt the same thing???

Of course the long term success of any pick is the best outcome

 

[Mismatched]

Personally I was pumped when we picked Dangerfield. Like most of us I had no idea how good or bad he was going to be but his highlights just excited me. I'm just talking about what excites me when we initialy draft a player. I like to dream for a few months about how they are going to take the game on with pace and then reality hits one way or the other once the real games start

I have no doubt Pitt & Jacobs are really really talented. I'm just talking how I personaly will feel on thursday. I want to invisage pre-season training reports of Prestia or Smedts cutting through traffic in internal practice games. Burning off Dangerfield

Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to start a who is a better pick etc etc. (because I have no idea). I'm just talking from a personal point of view of how I will feel on thursday and over the next few months. Just an individual thing and wanted to see if anyone else felt the same thing???

Of course the long term success of any pick is the best outcome

Look, thats all fair enough, I'm rather keen on both Smedts and Prestia too and by no means am I qualified to comment on talent. I'm just saying that I think Jacobs and Pitt have a fair bit of their own X-factor too, just in their own way.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Smedts is someone who would be on my radar for pick #14, I have him going to the Suns at #12 in my phantom but he could very well still be at our pick, and I wouldn't be against picking him. However, I would be disappointed if we picked Jacobs, not that he won't become a great player, but I feel that we should select the best available midfielder, especially since our next pick isn't until #61. If we had a second round pick, I would pounce on Jacobs if he was available but with the likes of B. Smith, Smedts, Pitt and Harper to be thereabouts at #14 would be too hard to overlook.