Unofficial Preview Prelim discussion v Demons/Blues / Gunston watch.

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And they sent this right back! Look at him move!!



In that clip he beats his defender by like 20m to the ball. Good signs.
 

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Exclusive behind the scenes footage of Jack Gunston's latest training block >
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And they sent this right back! Look at him move!!


So what exactly was being practiced there? How to jog to a ball when the defender is asleep? How to take an uncontested mark once your defensive equivalent has zoned so far off you he cannot impact the contest?
 
So what exactly was being practiced there? How to jog to a ball when the defender is asleep? How to take an uncontested mark once your defensive equivalent has zoned so far off you he cannot impact the contest?
Maybe the club might be practicing tactics where they circle zone all the defenders and leaving Gunston by himself in a empty patch in the forward line, something like this perhaps ;)

Ring Around The Rosie Circle GIF by A24
 
Maybe the club might be practicing tactics where they circle zone all the defenders and leaving Gunston by himself in a empty patch in the forward line, something like this perhaps ;)

Ring Around The Rosie Circle GIF by A24
I think they call that a block.
 
Maybe the club might be practicing tactics where they circle zone all the defenders and leaving Gunston by himself in a empty patch in the forward line, something like this perhaps ;)

Ring Around The Rosie Circle GIF by A24
I think they call that a block.
No way :(Nathan Williamson lets us get away with that in the Prelim.
 
WARNING: SHOCKING statistics incoming. Elixuh please scroll to the next post.



On the back of this I wanted to broaden these numbers out to include our defensive record. But then I thought, why stop there? We've heard a lot about Brodie Grundy and Harry McKay, and whether or not their teams are better without them. So why not conduct a similar assessment of all 8 finalists? All have been without one or more key forwards during the season. For the record, these are the key forwards I considered:

Collingwood - Dan McStay
Brisbane - Jack Gunston
Port Adelaide - Charlie Dixon
Melbourne - Brodie Grundy
Carlton - Harry McKay
GWS - Jesse Hogan
St Kilda - Max King
Sydney - Lance Franklin

The results were shocking in how consistent across the board they were. EVERY team, almost without exception, when their nominated key forward hasn't played, has:

  • A better win-loss record
  • A better percentage (except Melbourne whose percentage changes ever so slightly, from 125.6 with Grundy to 120.3 without)
  • More points scored (except Collingwood, who score 91.8 with McStay and 91.7 without)
  • Less points conceded (except Melbourne, whose games actually become more high scoring without Grundy, on both sides of the ball)

TeamWin - Loss recordAverage points scoredAverage points concededPercentage
Collingwoodwith McStay9 - 491.881.0113.3
without McStay10 - 191.762.5146.9
Brisbanewith Gunston11 - 689.279.1112.9
without Gunston7 - 0112.371.7156.6
Port Adelaidewith Dixon9 - 487.485.2102.5
without Dixon8 - 398.983.7118.1
Melbournewith Grundy10 - 787.169.3125.6
without Grundy6 - 193.177.4120.3
Carltonwith McKay10.5 - 9.581.575.5107.9
without McKay4 - 091.563.8143.5
GWSwith Hogan11 - 1087.285.2102.3
without Hogan3 - 095.757.3166.9
St Kildawith King5 - 675.577.397.8
without King8 - 578.569.1113.7
Sydneywith Franklin6 - 784.185.298.6
without Franklin6.5 - 4.593.275.4123.6

Genuinely didn't realise the differences would be so graphic. So for anyone who's spent the season thinking we look like just an OK-to-middling team when Gunston plays... it's because we are. And for anyone who's spent the season thinking we look like a bloody good team when Gunston doesn't play... it's because we have been.

Really looks as though the key forward is going the way of the dodo. It might have taken a bit of misfortune on the injury front for us to stumble across what seems to be a winning formula, but we would do well to ride this wave as long as we can before the rest of the comp catches on.
Just realised I made an error in the collation of this data... I incorrectly counted the bye round as a loss in which the key forward did not play. I've now amended the data and the upshot is that every team now has had a better win-loss record when their key forward mentioned has not played.
 
Just realised I made an error in the collation of this data... I incorrectly counted the bye round as a loss in which the key forward did not play. I've now amended the data and the upshot is that every team now has had a better win-loss record when their key forward mentioned has not played.

Less predictability?

Hard to see how losing a decent key forward helps
 
Less predictability?

Hard to see how losing a decent key forward helps
I think less predictability is a factor. The greater the concentration on a key forward the more likely the defence can setup to counter.

I think overall mobility is becoming more important than strength and height. We all remember the “glory days“ when big power forwards ie Lynch and Brown lead the attack. Compare them to Daniher and Hipwood. They can compete in the air but Hippy in particular is now also playing a role similar to the Fly role in the early 2000 side. Six targets are better than two.

of course multiply targets requires good delivery to the forwards, which is another area we seemed to have improved.
 

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Less predictability?

Hard to see how losing a decent key forward helps

I think less predictability is a factor. The greater the concentration on a key forward the more likely the defence can setup to counter.

I think overall mobility is becoming more important than strength and height. We all remember the “glory days“ when big power forwards ie Lynch and Brown lead the attack. Compare them to Daniher and Hipwood. They can compete in the air but Hippy in particular is now also playing a role similar to the Fly role in the early 2000 side. Six targets are better than two.

of course multiply targets requires good delivery to the forwards, which is another area we seemed to have improved.

Yeah all really good points. I think it's been a competition-wide response to the sheer domination of May and Lever for a year and a half through 2021 and 2022. Back half of last year we saw teams start to hack kick the ball inside 50 rather than enter via more traditional methods. Sydney did it to great effect in their Qualifying Final and we followed suit a week later.

Teams haven't really responded by changing the makeup of their back 6/7 (yet), so going with an extra small forward creates a mismatch, and this might be good or bad. If your midfield is able to stunt their ball movement, it brings your tall intercept markers into play.

But if they're able to keep or bring chaos to their ball movement, it means they're less likely to have to kick over loose defenders or into a zone. Instead they're able to kick flat balls forward into dangerous places without running the risk of having them cut off.

This is why there is now so much emphasis now on guys like Martin, Bolton, Stringer, de Goey, Cripps, and dare I say it, Rayner and Bailey, even McCluggage, being able to drive their way out of congestion into space.

And then of course, once you get the ball in there, the defence piece comes into play. Much easier to lock the ball inside 50 when you have mobile players able to chase and harass and tackle and make repeat efforts. They don't even have to win it, they just have to (a) force a hurried or pressured exit that doesn't favour anyone, or even if they can't do that (b) slow down or delay the exit long enough that it gives the zone time to set up behind the ball.
 
WARNING: SHOCKING statistics incoming. Elixuh please scroll to the next post.



On the back of this I wanted to broaden these numbers out to include our defensive record. But then I thought, why stop there? We've heard a lot about Brodie Grundy and Harry McKay, and whether or not their teams are better without them. So why not conduct a similar assessment of all 8 finalists? All have been without one or more key forwards during the season. For the record, these are the key forwards I considered:

Collingwood - Dan McStay
Brisbane - Jack Gunston
Port Adelaide - Charlie Dixon
Melbourne - Brodie Grundy
Carlton - Harry McKay
GWS - Jesse Hogan
St Kilda - Max King
Sydney - Lance Franklin

The results were shocking in how consistent across the board they were. EVERY team, almost without exception, when their nominated key forward hasn't played, has:

  • A better win-loss record
  • A better percentage (except Melbourne whose percentage changes ever so slightly, from 125.6 with Grundy to 120.3 without)
  • More points scored (except Collingwood, who score 91.8 with McStay and 91.7 without)
  • Less points conceded (except Melbourne, whose games actually become more high scoring without Grundy, on both sides of the ball)

TeamWin - Loss recordAverage points scoredAverage points concededPercentage
Collingwoodwith McStay9 - 491.881.0113.3
without McStay10 - 191.762.5146.9
Brisbanewith Gunston11 - 689.279.1112.9
without Gunston7 - 0112.371.7156.6
Port Adelaidewith Dixon9 - 487.485.2102.5
without Dixon8 - 398.983.7118.1
Melbournewith Grundy10 - 787.169.3125.6
without Grundy6 - 193.177.4120.3
Carltonwith McKay10.5 - 9.581.575.5107.9
without McKay4 - 091.563.8143.5
GWSwith Hogan11 - 1087.285.2102.3
without Hogan3 - 095.757.3166.9
St Kildawith King5 - 675.577.397.8
without King8 - 578.569.1113.7
Sydneywith Franklin6 - 784.185.298.6
without Franklin6.5 - 4.593.275.4123.6

Genuinely didn't realise the differences would be so graphic. So for anyone who's spent the season thinking we look like just an OK-to-middling team when Gunston plays... it's because we are. And for anyone who's spent the season thinking we look like a bloody good team when Gunston doesn't play... it's because we have been.

Really looks as though the key forward is going the way of the dodo. It might have taken a bit of misfortune on the injury front for us to stumble across what seems to be a winning formula, but we would do well to ride this wave as long as we can before the rest of the comp catches on.

Great overall post. I have a couple of queries about this but it would take a huge amount of effort to actually work these out properly. I'm not sure this kind of analysis works unless you also factor in: (a) strength of opposition faced and (b) whether the teams replaced the player with a tall or a small.

For us, we clearly went small without Gunston. However, I'm pretty sure Melbourne has replaced grundy across the year by bringing in JVR, playing petty forward, and often bringing in one of McDonald or Brown. Similarly Mason Cox played a lot in the period McStay was out.

I do agree with your overall points about the way the game is going, but not sure the data is quite this strong?
 
Just realised I made an error in the collation of this data... I incorrectly counted the bye round as a loss in which the key forward did not play. I've now amended the data and the upshot is that every team now has had a better win-loss record when their key forward mentioned has not played.

The team is greater than the individual.

Just look at the pies and I think Carlton.

Seriously, can someone please get that to the club. But only our club. Don't tell the opposition.
 
I think less predictability is a factor. The greater the concentration on a key forward the more likely the defence can setup to counter.

I think overall mobility is becoming more important than strength and height. We all remember the “glory days“ when big power forwards ie Lynch and Brown lead the attack. Compare them to Daniher and Hipwood. They can compete in the air but Hippy in particular is now also playing a role similar to the Fly role in the early 2000 side. Six targets are better than two.

of course multiply targets requires good delivery to the forwards, which is another area we seemed to have improved.
We have become far more even all across the ground making us a lot harder to shut down.

1- All our forwards are dangerous matchups in different ways.

2- Our mids are sharing the load brilliantly, the hard tag on Neale does not seem to affect us as much any longer, Lachie not dominating possessions like he used to, mids across the board getting 20-25 possessions each.

3- Our D50 rebound is superlative, you can't tag all of Coleman/Wilmot/McKenna and shut down our run.
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I expect in the Prelim and/or GF a/both team/s will shift their tagger to McCluggage.
 
The melts on this board next Thursday night are gunna be next level. I’m here for it.

Fages should name him, with no intention of playing him, and just withdraw him prior to the game. All for the theatre of it all.

And also to get Elixuh up and about, who I must say, I originally thought was taking the piss wanting the “king” back in, but now I’m not so sure. 🤔🤔🤔
 
3KZ is Football I believe this is your portfolio?
I think Fages has blocked me on all socials and my emails to the club keep bouncing back. That said, I did get one communication through a third party that said something like, “We’ve given you everything you wanted. We have copied The Over 50’s Clique Official Team to a man. We won’t play Gunners. You were right and we were wrong about Lester, but can you just leave us alone?” Might not be 100% accurate but it was words to that effect. I think I need to respect that request Grasshopper17
 
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