Preview Rd 1 Geelong V Collingwood Fri March 17 2023 740 pm @ MCG

Predicted winner & margin


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Better than collingwoods.

But not as good as it would be if we had hawkins or neale available.
McStay kicked 3 against us a year ago, with 11 marks. He is very handy in their forward line, which is not bereft of goalkicking prowess anyway. Minus both Hawkins and Cameron would be costly for us this week; let's hope at least one is available, and up for it. Hawkins' preseason is non-existent .
 
Think we'll start slow, come back fast in the last and just fall short. Would love to beat the record straight wins but think we'll drop a couple in the first 5-6 weeks like 2022.
 

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Tough game first up.
This is the type of assignment Joel Selwood would take on so well in his prime; taking the game on, setting the standard, finding a way.
We have a lot of experienced players, its time for them to become leaders in their own right.
I think the game is winnable, but we're going to have to be adaptable.

We've got depth on the list, well now's the time to bust it out.
I think we are great beneficiaries of this group having played alongside Selwood for so long. I don’t doubt they have the fortitude or adaptability. I just watched the pre-season game against Brisbane when we had no forward line and thought ‘we are ****ed if we bring this out in the real thing’. If Hawkins and Jezza play I’ll be much more confident.
 
McStay kicked 3 against us a year ago, with 11 marks. He is very handy in their forward line, which is not bereft of goalkicking prowess anyway. Minus both Hawkins and Cameron would be costly for us this week; let's hope at least one is available, and up for it. Hawkins' preseason is non-existent .
Or 4 goals total from McStay v the Cats in his other 10 games.Plodder.
 
If Hawkins and Cameron are both out, I’d bring in Ceglar and play Rhys forward. Rohan and OHenry cannot play as the primary marking targets against a backline of Moore and Howe.
If Hawkins and Cameron are both out I reckon we see Sav forward before 1/4 time no real match up for him v the Pies if he starts down back this week.
 
If Hawkins and Cameron are both out, I’d bring in Ceglar and play Rhys forward. Rohan and OHenry cannot play as the primary marking targets against a backline of Moore and Howe.
Ceglar- looked horrible so far this year.
 
MOC, Sav, DeK
I think mostly we'll only see 2 of those forwards down there at a time but they may try to stretch us given the absences of Kolo and Henry. I actually think for this game Stewart may take a third tall if there is one and say off him at times (a bit like Howe's role).

But Sav will certainly get Cox whenever he's there and he'll probably roll onto Miocheck or McStay when there's only two of them (freeing up Stewart). MOC will be on a McCreery type or a small/medium player IMO.
 
Who are your match ups for Miochek, Cox and McStay?
We need to Waite and see the sides but the structure should be such that Stanley can drop back in defence as per 2022 to add support and we need to keep Moore locked deep back in our forward half and created spillages for our little blokes to work on.
 
It's hard to predict how the start of a season will play out when there is such a small sample of preseason play. On the glimpses of the Bris practice, I think we'll probably lose. This is simply we didn't show much cohesion in the handball chains etc. It looked like we needed another match or two against opponents who were putting the pressure on. Last season, right from the get go, we were very smooth with those handballs. I noticed it because it was something I thought was missing in the previous handful of seasons.
The other reason we'll be lucky to win is that the Pies will be more fired up than us. Like Bris, they'll have that couple extra percentage points of 'desire/desperation/whatever' that will give them a step on us.
Of course, it could all go the reverse, where we come out sharp and strong, and there a disorganized rabble. :)

Just IMO
 

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We need to Waite and see the sides but the structure should be such that Stanley can drop back in defence as per 2022 to add support and we need to keep Moore locked deep back in our forward half and created spillages for our little blokes to work on.
Here are two pretty likely sides.

FB: Maynard Murphy Howe
FF: Stengle Rohan O.Henry

HB: Quaynor Moore N.Daicos
HF: Miers Cameron Close

C: Sidebottom Mitchell J.Daicos
C: Blicavs Bruhn Smith

HF: McCreery McStay Adams
HB: Stewart SavRat Z.Guthrie

FF: Elliott Mihocek Hill
FB: Bews SDK Tuohy

FOL: Cameron De Goey Crisp
FOL: Stanley C.Guthrie Dangerfield

IC: Pendlebury WHE Cox Noble
IC: Atkins Bowes MOC Parfitt

In this hypothetical, if Sav moves forward your only option would be to have Stewart take McStay. When Cox is on he tends to be FF rather than CHF so I can't see Stanley drifting back being an actual positional match up. Sav would absolutely be required for Cox who spends more time forward than ruck.
 
Here are two pretty likely sides.

FB: Maynard Murphy Howe
FF: Stengle Rohan O.Henry

HB: Quaynor Moore N.Daicos
HF: Miers Cameron Close

C: Sidebottom Mitchell J.Daicos
C: Blicavs Bruhn Smith

HF: McCreery McStay Adams
HB: Stewart SavRat Z.Guthrie

FF: Elliott Mihocek Hill
FB: Bews SDK Tuohy

FOL: Cameron De Goey Crisp
FOL: Stanley C.Guthrie Dangerfield

IC: Pendlebury WHE Cox Noble
IC: Atkins Bowes MOC Parfitt

In this hypothetical, if Sav moves forward your only option would be to have Stewart take McStay. When Cox is on he tends to be FF rather than CHF so I can't see Stanley drifting back being an actual positional match up. Sav would absolutely be required for Cox who spends more time forward than ruck.

With both Henry & Kolodjashnij unavailable, I could see Collingwood taking advantage of our lack of KPD if we don’t play Ratugolea or if we try to push him forward during the match

I could easily see a situation (even with Rat in defence) where they role Cameron into the forward line after centre bounce contests just to really stretch our defence - consider the likes of Cox 211cm, Cameron 204cm, McStay 195cm, then add in Johnson 193cm & Mihocek 192cm, and that’s potentially one of the tallest forward lines in the league

I know we didn’t see Blicavs play in defence much in the second half of last season, but he may spend time down there next week just for added height at times
 
With both Henry & Kolodjashnij unavailable, I could see Collingwood taking advantage of our lack of KPD if we don’t play Ratugolea or if we try to push him forward during the match

I could easily see a situation (even with Rat in defence) where they role Cameron into the forward line after centre bounce contests just to really stretch our defence - consider the likes of Cox 211cm, Cameron 204cm, McStay 195cm, then add in Johnson 193cm & Mihocek 192cm, and that’s potentially one of the tallest forward lines in the league

I know we didn’t see Blicavs play in defence much in the second half of last season, but he may spend time down there next week just for added height at times

They will put Cox in front of the ball.

Hawkins a big loss really .
Also pity neale inj he would get a run.
 
I just hope Geel dont get jumped at the start - and thus it becomes a frustrating watch - playing catch up football allnight - i think if they are thereabouts at h/time - then i think they have got a very good chance of winning - but will they be in touch at h/time

The AFL allways wanted an even cpmpetition - not much between the sides etc - and i think its about even as its ever been - no super dominant world beater team no way - thus any team who are are sought of there abouts - and if they improve by about 5-6 goals they will probably make the GF - thus its very hard to pick which clubs will do what - like who at this stage last year knew that Stengle would have an outstanding year and make the All Aust team in his 1st year with Geel - and was vital in that Geel premiership - so any club who hits paydirt with a couple of real good players - then they will rapidly improve - and how the trading is now - players have swapped clubs all over the place

Watched plenty of the Magpies last season - because i backed them for the top 4 - and my conclusion /summary - and this goes back 10-15 years - they do play well against Geel . Their game in the 2nd half of season against Ess( who were travelling very ordinary )- they kicked the opening 5-6 goals of the game - thenEss got right on top got about 3 goals in front - Coll looked gone for all money - but won after the bell . - ditto their game against Carl - 3-4 goals down at 3qtr time and win it at the death / They played far superior in the 2 games against Geel - than those 2 games

Geel at long last ( and we are still in the dark as to who was instrumental in changing it ) played much quicker and attacking football last year - but i reckon that is one of the reasons why Coll have played well against Geel - because they do like to move the ball quickly
 
I just hope Geel dont get jumped at the start - and thus it becomes a frustrating watch - playing catch up football allnight - i think if they are thereabouts at h/time - then i think they have got a very good chance of winning - but will they be in touch at h/time

The AFL allways wanted an even cpmpetition - not much between the sides etc - and i think its about even as its ever been - no super dominant world beater team no way - thus any team who are are sought of there abouts - and if they improve by about 5-6 goals they will probably make the GF - thus its very hard to pick which clubs will do what - like who at this stage last year knew that Stengle would have an outstanding year and make the All Aust team in his 1st year with Geel - and was vital in that Geel premiership - so any club who hits paydirt with a couple of real good players - then they will rapidly improve - and how the trading is now - players have swapped clubs all over the place

Watched plenty of the Magpies last season - because i backed them for the top 4 - and my conclusion /summary - and this goes back 10-15 years - they do play well against Geel . Their game in the 2nd half of season against Ess( who were travelling very ordinary )- they kicked the opening 5-6 goals of the game - thenEss got right on top got about 3 goals in front - Coll looked gone for all money - but won after the bell . - ditto their game against Carl - 3-4 goals down at 3qtr time and win it at the death / They played far superior in the 2 games against Geel - than those 2 games

Geel at long last ( and we are still in the dark as to who was instrumental in changing it ) played much quicker and attacking football last year - but i reckon that is one of the reasons why Coll have played well against Geel - because they do like to move the ball quickly

I think they will be pumped after last year's finals series.

Just hope were switched on .
I think they will be .
 
We go in extra small stengle miers close atkins Rohan Ollie and bews, every kick inside 50 is a shank along the ground, Collingwood talls in shambles because everyone knows lanklets can't play below the knee. Scott awarded coach of the century for master plan.
 
Round 1 - 2023 Geelong v Collingwood

I hope this game goes exactly like Round 1 - 1967 Geel v Coll- and there is a little bit more to it ( drama wise ) than just the final score
Pies fans...they'd seen their side lose the '66 GF by a point and then watch their side drop the Rd 1 game after the siren after a contentious second kick from Bill Ryan..his first kick was touched from almost the goal square, but he was given a 15m penalty (or at least another kick with the man on the mark on the goal line). Wasn't alive for those games but you'd be forgiven as a Pies fan back then that you'd be cursed.

Mind you I reckon the '80 and '81 PF losses have now been sort of rectified by the close '07 PF and '22 QF wins, a what goes around comes around scenario. A little part of me wants Geelong to really give the record winning streak a shake, but realistically I feel that it would be extremely hard to open up with a streak of wins this year given the early draw. The practice game against the Lions saw how vulnerable Geelong is when many of our best players are out, but in any case i'm sure the club knows where they are and what they plan to do as the season takes shape. I'm hoping they get it done, it would be a great result for Geelong of they can top the Pies.
 
Here are two pretty likely sides.

FB: Maynard Murphy Howe
FF: Stengle Rohan O.Henry

HB: Quaynor Moore N.Daicos
HF: Miers Cameron Close

C: Sidebottom Mitchell J.Daicos
C: Blicavs Bruhn Smith

HF: McCreery McStay Adams
HB: Stewart SavRat Z.Guthrie

FF: Elliott Mihocek Hill
FB: Bews SDK Tuohy

FOL: Cameron De Goey Crisp
FOL: Stanley C.Guthrie Dangerfield

IC: Pendlebury WHE Cox Noble
IC: Atkins Bowes MOC Parfitt

In this hypothetical, if Sav moves forward your only option would be to have Stewart take McStay. When Cox is on he tends to be FF rather than CHF so I can't see Stanley drifting back being an actual positional match up. Sav would absolutely be required for Cox who spends more time forward than ruck.

I think they will play frampton not murphy which helps us because frampton sucks.

With our lack of kpds sav has to take the resting ruck and sdk mcstay. We probably need zuthrie to play taller and take mihocek so we can free stewart up.

We just have to go in smaller up fwd and have dempsey or ollie henry as an extra mid sized fwd. Neale would have played if he was fit.
 
With both Henry & Kolodjashnij unavailable, I could see Collingwood taking advantage of our lack of KPD if we don’t play Ratugolea or if we try to push him forward during the match

I could easily see a situation (even with Rat in defence) where they role Cameron into the forward line after centre bounce contests just to really stretch our defence - consider the likes of Cox 211cm, Cameron 204cm, McStay 195cm, then add in Johnson 193cm & Mihocek 192cm, and that’s potentially one of the tallest forward lines in the league

I know we didn’t see Blicavs play in defence much in the second half of last season, but he may spend time down there next week just for added height at times
That'd be a plan D or E for them surely and I feel we'd be licking our lips at it. Stanley can drop back to cover their ruck floating forward. Meanwhile Stewart, Zuthrie, Tuohy, O'Connor etc will peel off and waltz it out of there with ease against opponents that offer very little defensively.
 
Here are two pretty likely sides.

FB: Maynard Murphy Howe
FF: Stengle Rohan O.Henry

HB: Quaynor Moore N.Daicos
HF: Miers Cameron Close

C: Sidebottom Mitchell J.Daicos
C: Blicavs Bruhn Smith

HF: McCreery McStay Adams
HB: Stewart SavRat Z.Guthrie

FF: Elliott Mihocek Hill
FB: Bews SDK Tuohy

FOL: Cameron De Goey Crisp
FOL: Stanley C.Guthrie Dangerfield

IC: Pendlebury WHE Cox Noble
IC: Atkins Bowes MOC Parfitt

In this hypothetical, if Sav moves forward your only option would be to have Stewart take McStay. When Cox is on he tends to be FF rather than CHF so I can't see Stanley drifting back being an actual positional match up. Sav would absolutely be required for Cox who spends more time forward than ruck.
In that scenario I play Ceglar for one of MOC or Parfitt that gives me more flexibility to use Stanley and Blits more in defence if required or push forward .
Also worth noting that we lost Kolo early in the final v Pies last season so only change there I think in that starting back 6 is no Henry.
 
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