AFL Autopsy RND 6: Loss to the Pies

[faible]

I don’t know enough about it - haven’t we had money for the past 3+ years and just haven’t spent it..?

I think we've managed it well to bring in players without over-paying anyone, which means we've still got plenty of cap space. Guys like Wright, Kelly, Weideman etc that would be paid OK money without costing a heap.

No point bringing in a big name FA that costs a bomb if you're not in a good space list and coach-wise to capitalise on it.

 

[ant555]

Government isnt going to put it’s two biggest national public holidays b2b. If aus day gets moved it’ll stay in the summer.

It should . I think the values of both days can line up.

 

[Zach Package]

you dont go from obtaining a 28 point lead, to "running out of puff" in a matter of minutes.

We were off from the 4th QTR bounce, right after a break. You could tell from the first clearance Collingwood wanted it more. We continually fumbled and miss kicks whilst Collingwood made theirs.

The legs argument has merit. But us shitting the bed has more so.

Essendon being unable to capitalise and extend leads is not a one off. We have been doing it for 20 odd years. We rarely have the killer instinct required to put 5 bullets into a corpse. We did the exact same thing to Collingwood last year when Elliot kicked one after the Siren to win in Round 19. 2 goals up going into the 4th and dont capitalise on it.

It wasn’t a bed shit, it just flat out wasn’t. We stopped running in the same way late into time on in the 3rd and there was just nothing left. It was palpable.

The Collingwood repeat sprint animals just ate us up, on the rare occasion we were first to a ground ball they were 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

I think Collingwood have passed Richmond and Port as the best aerobic sides in the AFL and I’d have us 18th. That’s my bottom line.

If you want to talk about 20 odd years, we’ve probably been 18th for 10 of those years and 16th for the 10 before that.

 

[andleanback]

It should . I think the values of both days can line up.

But it won’t, I think Anzac Day deserves to stand alone aswel, doesn’t need to then be followed by another day celebrating something else.

 

[Knighta21]

can i put this in the delusional pearlers thread?

Haha tongue in cheek comment

 

[citizen-erased]

I am going to go off topic slightly. Anzac Day is such a great day and it is incredibly awesome that Ess is involved in this game. Other teams and supporters could only be jealous of today. Can't imagine it ever being taken off Ess and Coll. 95,000 people through the gates. Biggest crowd to a H&A game since 1958 (Melb vs Coll at 99k). Great game for the punters to watch in pubs and at home on TV.

Now, time to get a bit political. It occurred to me that one way to fix the Australia Day issue is to move it to 26 April. Or 24 April for that matter but seems to be the right thing to do to have the remembrance part first and then the party part. And obviously retains some connection (which many wont like) by having it on 26th of a month. Would give people a double public holiday to recognise/remember and celebrate the country. Just a thought that came to me today looking at 95,000 people not making a sound for a minute. And AFL would love it, they can do two of these games on consecutive days plus eve games.

How we gonna back up for a game the next day though?

Surely not suggesting a marquee game without us or the pies involved.....would be doomed

 

[VelvetSledge]

We’ll get them next time
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Jeez the Saints really shit the bed there didn't they

 

[Megabattimus]

So I mentioned this Twitter thread in the Weideman thread, but I figured I'd link it here so people can give it a read:



Really helped to put aspects of the game in perspective for me. Like the one I specifically mentioned in the Weideman thread was the bit where Sidebottom intercepted the ball against Weid and Stringer:



There's a bit about Heppell in the last too which I also found pretty interesting:



Overall, it's a good read that actually got me to start listening to the Don the Stat podcast. Which based off the one episode I've listened to so far (the Anzac Day preview one), is already really good and exactly what I'm looking for in an Essendon based podcast.

 

[Cup_o_Jobe]

Easy to get lost in the what-ifs, but in a world where Tippa is the sub and comes on in that last Qtr for Laverde, sits effectively at full forward with Langford swinging back to cover Lav in the backline, letting Setters keep doing what he does in the middle...do we still sh*t the bed? Probably. But do we maybe jag a couple of goals against the tide and hang on? I think structurally we'd have a much better chance of it.

Mention only to note how very small things going your way or against you can decide games like this where the late momentum swing is on. As always, we're not far away even when we're nowhere near it.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

It wasn’t a bed s**t, it just flat out wasn’t. We stopped running in the same way late into time on in the 3rd and there was just nothing left. It was palpable.

The Collingwood repeat sprint animals just ate us up, on the rare occasion we were first to a ground ball they were 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

I think Collingwood have passed Richmond and Port as the best aerobic sides in the AFL and I’d have us 18th. That’s my bottom line.

If you want to talk about 20 odd years, we’ve probably been 18th for 10 of those years and 16th for the 10 before that.

Suppose we just have to agree to disagree.

Allowing a team to essentially double their score in a single Qtr is beyond being just about fitness. Collingwood added 41 points to their score in the 4th. They went in on 47.....

This is elite AFL footy. Collingwood's fitness whilst is probably better than ours with more mature bodies, is not that much better.

We didn't just die in the ass midway through the 4th qtr. we were off from the bounce. After game break.

You can argue we did very well to get that type of lead over Collingwood in the first place, but i can easily say we did very badly to lose it. it should be a learning point for the team. Hopefully we actually do learn from it.

 

[ghostdog]

This Collingwood side under Fly has been brilliant and impressive and we've played it 3 times now, and in all 3 of those games we've been in great positions to win, we didn't win and that's s**t but we are pushing them all the way.

Now if we can improve 5/10% across the board maybe we beat them and become contenders ourselves.

Or Pendles and Sidearse retire, which ever comes first.

 

[Zach Package]

Suppose we just have to agree to disagree.

Allowing a team to essentially double their score in a single Qtr is beyond being just about fitness. Collingwood added 41 points to their score in the 4th. They went in on 47.....

This is elite AFL footy. Collingwood's fitness whilst is probably better than ours with more mature bodies, is not that much better.

We didn't just die in the ass midway through the 4th qtr. we were off from the bounce. After game break.

You can argue we did very well to get that type of lead over Collingwood in the first place, but i can easily say we did very badly to lose it. it should be a learning point for the team. Hopefully we actually do learn from it.

And I actually think we were fortunate to be that close at the end.

Could have easily been a 5 or 6 goal defeat, and maybe it needed to be for someone to call it out.

This will not be the last time this happens this year, it may not be the last time it happens this week.

 

[yodellinhank]

You can argue we did very well to get that type of lead over Collingwood in the first place, but i can easily say we did very badly to lose it. it should be a learning point for the team. Hopefully we actually do learn from it.

What was it, 5 changes from the 2022 round 19 side?

 

[HirdsTheWord]

What was it, 5 changes from the 2022 round 19 side?

along with a total gameplan change.

We also led Collingwood in Round 19 2022 by 2 goals going into the 4th, and yet again did not capitalise on it.

 

[yodellinhank]

We also led Collingwood in Round 19 2022 by 2 goals going into the 4th, and yet again did not capitalise on it.

Just so long as we are learning, each and every time it happens.

 

[Shanghaistu]

Or Pendles and Sidearse retire, which ever comes first.

Any chance we could throw some money at one or both to spend their last 1 or 2 seasons on our list? That kind of composure, success DNA and leadership wouldn’t go astray

 

[jmoo wan]

Any chance we could throw some money at one or both to spend their last 1 or 2 seasons on our list? That kind of composure, success DNA and leadership wouldn’t go astray

they are both over 30 which means they’ll completely fall off the cliff immediately they put our guernsey on

 

[Beerfish]

they are both over 30 which means they’ll completely fall off the cliff immediately they put our guernsey on

Now if they go to Geelong on the other hand..

 

[Nifft]

We had about a full seasons less experience per player out there, that kind of thing shows up in the last where you had some inexperienced guys pretty gassed from the game struggling to keep it going. Losing Laverde was a pretty big problem structurally as they tried sending experienced inside midfielder Setterfield back and bringing a 2nd year inside midfielder in Hobbs on in to the last quarter of a fast paced game to try to plug the hole. Merrett's kicking and ability to run out the full four quarters in the midfield also sorely missed, some of our delivery i50 was woeful, just kicking it straight to Darcy Moore as their only genuine tall defender for example.

No doubt our players simply weren't good enough to get the job done over four quarters, but there's also some reasonable explanations for part of it. Having Weideman and Draper both fluff important opportunities to steady the side and arrest some momentum didn't help either.

Don't know if it would've made any difference to the result, but I wonder if Hind would've been a better sub. More seasoned body, can fill in forward or back, and has more pace to get to contests when others are getting tired.

 

[jannissary]

Don't know if it would've made any difference to the result, but I wonder if Hind would've been a better sub. More seasoned body, can fill in forward or back, and has more pace to get to contests when others are getting tired.

think he should've been at least picked to play from the start, experience is important on days like this

 

[Ati Tude]

Easy to get lost in the what-ifs, but in a world where Tippa is the sub and comes on in that last Qtr for Laverde, sits effectively at full forward with Langford swinging back to cover Lav in the backline, letting Setters keep doing what he does in the middle...do we still sh*t the bed? Probably. But do we maybe jag a couple of goals against the tide and hang on? I think structurally we'd have a much better chance of it.

Mention only to note how very small things going your way or against you can decide games like this where the late momentum swing is on. As always, we're not far away even when we're nowhere near it.

WE barely got the ball inside the 50. Dont think Walla would have made any difference. We needed more run and composure from midfielders, but ours were spent. I have no idea what the stats show, but that 2nd quarter was real back and forth end to end stuff. Which is kind of why I was so amazed at the third quarter as their midfield seemed on top in last part of 2Q. Probably resulted in them having more in the tank to run all over us in the last. The reality is, if the 3rd and 4th were quite even and Pies sneak out for a 2 goal win (bit like last Anzac Day), we wouldnt have been too disappointed given they are quality side. But giving up a 28 point lead hurts.

 

[faible]

Don't know if it would've made any difference to the result, but I wonder if Hind would've been a better sub. More seasoned body, can fill in forward or back, and has more pace to get to contests when others are getting tired.

Someone like Hind (or AMT even) with some leg speed is a better sub option IMO.

Hind's speed is a weapon, Hind's speed on fresh legs versus players with 3QT of running in.... no one's catching him. That can open an opportunity or two up that we otherwise might not have found.

AMT's cleanliness again might have converted an i50 entry that otherwise didn't or wasn't, Menzie worked hard but just didn't quite nail his chances and had a fumble or two at inopportune times, unsurprisingly for a young bloke who's played < 10 games in front of the biggest H&A crowd seen in 50 years.

Lot's of what-if moments, a conversion from Weideman or Draper from either of those very gettable shots might have given our players that little lift and put a little bit of doubt in the minds of the Collingwood players.

 

[rumply]

Overall, it's a good read that actually got me to start listening to the Don the Stat podcast. Which based off the one episode I've listened to so far (the Anzac Day preview one), is already really good and exactly what I'm looking for in an Essendon based podcast.

Yeah started listening recently as well, can recommend.

 

[BrunoV]

It wasn’t a bed s**t, it just flat out wasn’t. We stopped running in the same way late into time on in the 3rd and there was just nothing left. It was palpable.

The Collingwood repeat sprint animals just ate us up, on the rare occasion we were first to a ground ball they were 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

I think Collingwood have passed Richmond and Port as the best aerobic sides in the AFL and I’d have us 18th. That’s my bottom line.

If you want to talk about 20 odd years, we’ve probably been 18th for 10 of those years and 16th for the 10 before that.

As I see it there is a 50/50 chance we get jumped at the start of Q4. The game was played, as most games are, in pretty significant momentum swings.

So they get a bit of a jump, which they needed being 5 goals down, and just as we need to respond, they're still going at the same intensity and you've got a hardened team of quality runners vs a team that stated drafting players who can run naturally about 30 months ago.

They ran over the top of how many better teams than us last season? I am not sure how there is a serious argument that we didn't get found out for running power.

 

[jannissary]

WE barely got the ball inside the 50. Dont think Walla would have made any difference. We needed more run and composure from midfielders, but ours were spent. I have no idea what the stats show, but that 2nd quarter was real back and forth end to end stuff. Which is kind of why I was so amazed at the third quarter as their midfield seemed on top in last part of 2Q. Probably resulted in them having more in the tank to run all over us in the last. The reality is, if the 3rd and 4th were quite even and Pies sneak out for a 2 goal win (bit like last Anzac Day), we wouldnt have been too disappointed given they are quality side. But giving up a 28 point lead hurts.

walla is an electric player, but i have to agree with you that we lost it in the middle in the last and i don't think he'd have been able to make too much of a difference if he went in