Autopsy Round 11, 2023: St.Kilda v Hawthorn

[Tom12]

We looked flat, and we looked disinterested.

We are 7-4. We can match it with the best, we just need to get our heads screwed on after the bye...

Geez some of you are so quick to hammer us. I back us to find our footing in the second half and recapture our first month of form.

 

[Tom12]

Having said that.

King needs to be targeted more. He's getting more action at ground level.

Steele needs to be dropped and/or rested. Seb the same. Crouch on notice.

Higgins has been good this year, was poor today but that's him. That's Butler. Up and down.

Midfield is getting smashed and there's no excuse for that.

 

[Dalsantowhatastar]

I watched a bit off First Crack last night and they showed some footage of Port Adelaide's game against Richmond. They were talking up the way Port's midfielders work from the stoppage in both attack and defence.

Rozee and Butters in particular just explode out of the stoppage on long 50m runs as soon as the ball leaves the area and work their ass off to get to the next contest. Butters often wins the clearance, kicks it 40m and is the one running past to collect the next handball to go again.

In contrast to this, the amount of times I watched our midfielders slowly jogging post clearance on the weekend whilst Day, Newcombe, Worpel worked off them was extremely concerning. There was a moment in front of me on the 50m arc in the 2nd half where Crouch was still walking post stoppage and 20 secs later Newcombe (who was in the stoppage with Crouch) marked the ball on the opposite side of the ground 75m away. Crouch wouldn't have travelled more than 10m away from where the stoppage was in that time.

What I loved in the first month of the season was everyone working back defensively to help each other. The forwards working back to cover the midfield, the midfielders working back to fill space in the defensive 50.

I definitely think the gameplan has been worked out to some extent. However, I think more than anything the effort has been substandard and this has caused the holes in the gameplan to become more evident.

 

[AirWinmar]

I reckon there must be a reason our mids have been getting smashed this much. I know they're not all a grade or elite mids, but they aren't as bad as they've been.

Steele obviously carrying niggles and isn't right - we shouldn't be playing hi. It's possible that carrying 1 in there is also making it harder for the other 2

Have we increased training loads a lot, like Geelong did last year prior to the bye?

Are we trying something new that they're not used to?

 

[pebblesofsand]

Have to disagree with this. They had 10 more scoring shots. Had nothing to do with the system. If they kick straighter it would have been closer to 6-8 goal loss.

Don't want to have an argument about this but this is the wrong way to look at scoring shots.

If you kick consecutive behinds you are more likely to keep the ball in the forward half which gives you a higher % chance of creating another score.

If you kick a goal then it goes back to the centre square where it will be closer to 50/50.

If you have shots under pressure or from low % spots and score behinds that is directly attributable to the opposition.

 

[bergholt]

If you have shots under pressure or from low % spots and score behinds that is directly attributable to the opposition.

Definitely, but they underperformed their expected score significantly.



At half time they were two goals under their xscore and then at three quarter time almost four goals under.



At that stage we were two goals up when we should have been three goals down, five goal turnaround. That would have given the game a very different feeling.



Then in the last quarter it evened up slightly, by the end we were around our xscore and the Hawks were about three goals under theirs.

They definitely underperformed in goalkicking accuracy.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Definitely, but they underperformed their expected score significantly.



At half time they were two goals under their xscore and then at three quarter time almost four goals under.



At that stage we were two goals up when we should have been three goals down, five goal turnaround. That would have given the game a very different feeling.



Then in the last quarter it evened up slightly, by the end we were around our xscore and the Hawks were about three goals under theirs.

They definitely underperformed in goalkicking accuracy.

Jeez - my head just exploded!!!

So whoever does this is instantaneously assessing the difficulty of every shot a player takes, comparing it against that players career averages, factoring in pressure on the kicker, fatigue, intensity of the game, the wind, ground and ball conditions and then deciding whether they should have kicked or not.

Big effort!!!!

 

[bergholt]

Jeez - my head just exploded!!!

So whoever does this is instantaneously assessing the difficulty of every shot a player takes, comparing it against that players career averages, factoring in pressure on the kicker, fatigue, intensity of the game, the wind, ground and ball conditions and then deciding whether they should have kicked or not.

Big effort!!!!

Yeah basically they just take into account the position on the ground, but that gives a pretty good idea of whether it was an easy shot or hard shot - which was your original point.

 

[phantom13]

Jeez - my head just exploded!!!

So whoever does this is instantaneously assessing the difficulty of every shot a player takes, comparing it against that players career averages, factoring in pressure on the kicker, fatigue, intensity of the game, the wind, ground and ball conditions and then deciding whether they should have kicked or not.

Big effort!!!!

I mean, if you’ve got stats to back up your argument by all means throw them out.

 

[gringo2011]

Not sure the bye came at the right time. Now this loss will be all but forgotten when selection meeting comes around in 10 days and the same team will go out against Sydney. Changes need to be made starting with our slow midfield. Bring Windy & Bytel in there and gee did we realise how important a 19 year old player is to our structure - hope Owens completely recovers from his concussion coz he is our point of difference and has X-factor star written all over him.

The people doing the reviews don't forget over the bye. If anything it gives them time to think about life without the under performers and plan for change.

 

[Jade Buddha]

Have you forgotten how good of a footballer Jack Steele is?

He is out of form and playing sore.

I've been very vocal about getting young mids in there, but we need to be looking at getting the best out of Jack, not replacing him.

Yeah get that. Probably referring to this year as temporary measure.

 

[gringo2011]

Forget about the opposition though.

We played like utter garbage compared to how we played at the start of the season.

We have utterly collapsed back into playing dumb ratten footy.

Slow, scared ball movement... long bomb hail marys.

Im fine with us losing to the likes of the hawks if they are good enough and we aren't playing dumb football.

But we didn't.
We lost to them playing utter trash football that even the worst teams in the league don't find very challenging.

I'm not defending that match, it was lazy unprofessional shit. Like a side that turned up expecting a win or on holiday a week early. Not the end of the season though and as long as they don't make it a habit we should still get to play finals.

 

[gringo2011]

I'm at the point with Gresh where I'm asking for offers as I don't want that man entering our F50 with any disposal as he'll crossbody screw grubber 90% of them trying to emulate a fancy Dunstan I50.

Realistically, Dmac shifts with Byrnes in mid, Byrnes shifts with Butler and Butler potentially shifts to rookie list ala Lonie in that sort of shuffle around, I think Byrnes could do what Butler does only with more physicality and repeat efforts to actually retain that ball in that F50. Already I've classed Gresh as a tease, has attributes, could be something, doesn't have the mentality for it, will never reach those heights, we'ree on a hiding if we rely on him to be a difference as he'll disappoint more than he excites and tease "maybe next time" that'll never happen.

Have a look at his game against Hawks last year. Lyon isn't getting the best out of him for whatever reason. Had something like 25 touches and 4 goals. Butler is very ordinary IMO. He's another Jack Lonie level player with 2 good standout seasons. DMac looks cooked. I can't see him getting another year.

 

[bergholt]

Changes need to be made starting with our slow midfield. Bring Windy & Bytel in there

Those two aren't quick, are they?

 

[phantom13]

Have a look at his game against Hawks last year. Lyon isn't getting the best out of him for whatever reason. Had something like 25 touches and 4 goals. Butler is very ordinary IMO. He's another Jack Lonie level player with 2 good standout seasons. DMac looks cooked. I can't see him getting another year.

Real rough on Butler. At the very least when he’s not kicking goals he’s giving his all on defensive efforts.

I’d be happy to trade Gresh for good value but in reality we wouldn’t get it.

 

[Dard Ball Get]

Those two aren't quick, are they?

Windhager is. Bytel isn’t.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Yeah basically they just take into account the position on the ground, but that gives a pretty good idea of whether it was an easy shot or hard shot - which was your original point.

Unless you're Harry McKay in which case they are all impossible!!

 

[St Significant]

Those two aren't quick, are they?

Agree so therein lies our problem. How do we inject speed into the middle? Sinclair for periods but if he is there full time then we are robbing Peter to pay Paul. Chito is the one that I have high hopes for but we need more.

 

[PoppedCorn]

Steele needs to be dropped and/or rested. Seb the same. Crouch on notice.

Crouch has not had a single digit contested disposal game this year and his lowest disp games have been 18 and 19 touches
He is averaging 27 touches, 5 tackles and 12 contested possies
Crouch keeps his spot 100%
He is doing everything thats asked of him imo
He is the quiet achiever and is no way on notice

 

[Munga]

This is such a lame reason. Like Byrnes or Paton don’t have things to work on?
Bartels first year he played half a year at afl level.
Both of them played afl in their first year and were mainstays in their second year.
And I’m sorry but unlike at geelong and box hill you can’t develop anything at sandy.

Yeah, I thought I'd have a quick look into this. In Bartel's first season after being drafted, he played the very first 9 rounds in the AFL... so already that's a dubious excuse, isn't it? Plus, the Cats reserves were on top of the ladder and won the premiership that season, arguably the best reserves system available.

Windy, after a stellar first season, has played a single AFL match with over two-thirds gametime.

Every player receives "feedback" to work on, that's not much of an excuse either. To me, the real answer Windy isn't playing is team balance, they don't want to drop a midfielder for him... even though we have a few underperforming, inconsistent, banged up etc. He should be playing AFL, especially this year.

 

[ScrappyDo]

What's needed is more Billings. That'll fix things up🖒

 

[BrutThough]

Yeah, I thought I'd have a quick look into this. In Bartel's first season after being drafted, he played the very first 9 rounds in the AFL... so already that's a dubious excuse, isn't it? Plus, the Cats reserves were on top of the ladder and won the premiership that season, arguably the best reserves system available.

Windy, after a stellar first season, has played a single AFL match with over two-thirds gametime.

Every player receives "feedback" to work on, that's not much of an excuse either. To me, the real answer Windy isn't playing is team balance, they don't want to drop a midfielder for him... even though we have a few underperforming, inconsistent, banged up etc. He should be playing AFL, especially this year.

I also think it's bit confusing that the Port game was mentioned specifically as the game he was found out. But in that game, he was the sub who came on in the last quarter and 3 of his 4 disposals led to scores while also having 2 tackles (5 of the named starting forwards had 2 between them).

 

[moirae42]

Crouch has not had a single digit contested disposal game this year and his lowest disp games have been 18 and 19 touches
He is averaging 27 touches, 5 tackles and 12 contested possies
Crouch keeps his spot 100%
He is doing everything thats asked of him imo
He is the quiet achiever and is no way on notice

100%

Career best form First eight weeks of the year he was absolutely killing it. Best case results. Incredible work rate, contested beast.

Foot off the pedal for the past month though. Needs to lift again.

 

[Jade Buddha]

It was Steele Ross and Clark being injured that caused much of the midfield problems. Crouch isn’t a concern. We need another burst mid in there.

 

[gringo2011]

Crouch has not had a single digit contested disposal game this year and his lowest disp games have been 18 and 19 touches
He is averaging 27 touches, 5 tackles and 12 contested possies
Crouch keeps his spot 100%
He is doing everything thats asked of him imo
He is the quiet achiever and is no way on notice

At the ground he looked like he was trying his arse off unlike most of his mates.