Prediction Round 16, 2024: Changes vs Hawthorn

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Wasn't this the kind of player we actually drafted him as? And then for some reason we tried to turn him into a lock down defender.
I get that to play a team game some guys have to make sacrifices, but I can't help but think we'd be a lot better off letting these young guys develop and play their natural games

Yeah one of my mates gets pretty worked up at how we (the Eagles) seem to be intent on shoe-horning players into positions they weren't drafted for. I can only assume that maybe they got mixed up between Brander and Rotham and then swapped their positions.
 
Have defo seen a monumental shift on this board regarding Bailey Williams position in the side.

Seems it's gone from 'he's a natural forward', to 'he's fine just give it time', to 'he can't play forward at all' in the past month.

Simpson is on crack, he's only delaying the inevitable here, which is Williams demoted to the WAFL and Flynn rucking on his own.. aka bad list management.



IN - Reid, Kelly, Hall
OUT - Hutchinson, Rotham, Jones


Another one to keep an eye on is Hunt, I feel his sub par season has flown under the radar a bit on here.

Possibly he overachieved a bit last year in his first season, he certainly hasn't hit those heights again. Numbers are down across the board. 7 touches in a whole game of footy last week. He hasn't had a return that bad since round 12 2022 for Melbourne (3 disposals).
 

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Have defo seen a monumental shift on this board regarding Bailey Williams position in the side.

Seems it's gone from 'he's a natural forward', to 'he's fine just give it time', to 'he can't play forward at all' in the past month.

Who's been calling him a natural forward? He can't mark or kick for goal and his best position, such as it is, has always been ruckman based on literally every scrap of evidence you could possibly find.
 
Another one to keep an eye on is Hunt, I feel his sub par season has flown under the radar a bit on here.

Possibly he overachieved a bit last year in his first season, he certainly hasn't hit those heights again. Numbers are down across the board. 7 touches in a whole game of footy last week. He hasn't had a return that bad since round 12 2022 for Melbourne (3 disposals).

Played a different role, seemed to be lining up in the forward 50 from what I saw and Keys indicated Simpson said he had a tagging role (I haven’t seen the Schodown video yet).
 
While Williams is definitely no world beater, playing as a 4th tall up fwd, with small stints as a 2nd ruck and with just 60% TOG is a pretty crap role. Flynn also played just 67% TOG. Just play one of them or drop a tall fwd

Yep. Unfortunately it's either Williams or Darling that have to make way.
 
Ginnivan, Moore, Watson will be a handful but my guess is Duggan to Moore, Hough to Watson and Witherden to Ginnivan.

Outside of this, it’ll chop and change. But in general it likely will nonetheless.
I dont see us wasting hough on watson.
More likely moore.

He has played (and done so effectively) on guys who get up the ground more, like papley and bolton.
 
TB was in the ruck in the back 50. JD has become a reasonable threat as an inside 50 ruck. Flynn to do the heavy lifting between the arcs with the odd burst chop out from literally anyone.

JD offers more than Baz right now, so sorry brah, back to the Magoos to get a really good look at sharpening up your forward craft where you're not stuck behind 3 proven tall forwards.

I didn't see this happening for Baz but it's not the end of the world. He has every opportunity with some fit WAFL players to push his case for a return to the side this year or next.
 

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Played a different role, seemed to be lining up in the forward 50 from what I saw and Keys indicated Simpson said he had a tagging role (I haven’t seen the Schodown video yet).

I asked if Jones tagged Martin which Simpson confirmed was the case. He then went on to say that Essendon recognised the tag was on so pushed Martin forward. Jones stayed with Martin and Hunt then went forward as a result

Dropped the Martin tag halfway through the 3rd according to Simpson. Martin had 21 disposals and 273 metres gained which is below his normal output albeit he’s usually half back rather than wing. Also had 10 score involvements so it wasn’t more breakeven than a win for Jones
 
I dont see us wasting hough on watson.
More likely moore.

He has played (and done so effectively) on guys who get up the ground more, like papley and bolton.
Different types. Moore uses his endurance base to cover into defense and back, along with Connor MacDonald, Moore also goes into CBAs at times.

I would presume they’d want Hough on Watson because the bloke came off 6-7 shots on goal and you’re not playing your luck he’ll miss them again, you’ll stop him from getting the opportunity.

Duggan was better suited imo as I’ve seen him play wing, middle etc and he’s a strong defender and is probably the best lockdown option. If you think it swaps with Duggan to Watson and Hough to Moore, fair enough.

I presume they’ll start and then you get changes that come with performance through the game.
 
Watched training for the first time in a while today. Normal quiet session for this time of the week

First impression was the number of supporters that were here - probably a tick over a hundred. That’s a lot given the last couple of years I’ve been to some sessions where the number of spectators was barely double figures

No shows were Yeo, Ginbey, Chesser, Dewar and Jones. Allen came out briefly but did no more than chat with Simpson for a bit. Long obviously wasn’t there either

Jamieson also did very little

Everyone else joined in at least part of the session

• Kelly seemed to be moving well enough without ever getting out of second gear
• Hewett and Bazzo both did the full session. Looks like they’re over their respective injuries so it’s now a matter of them getting fit enough to play. Hewett in particular looked to be moving nicely and I think he can’t be all that far off
• Sheed was doing a bit of extra running at the end. Looks fine to play
• Petruccelle trained but I noticed he wasn’t running all that freely at times. Maybe just a bit stiff but he didn’t get much past a brisk sort of half walk/half jog. Didn’t see him talk to any trainers or show any discomfort
• Ryan had his elbow strapped above and below the joint but still trained with the rest after initially warming up separately
 
I reckon both out and bring in JWill who in his limited games so far has shown some decent ability for someone so young (in KPF terms) to play the Fwd/Ruck role we want so lets develop that more.

Because we are in a rebuild apparently...

This is what a rebuilding side would do, having trialed BWil as a proper 3rd tall of even 2nd tall and discovering he's not a forward.

However, Simpson has spoken a lot over he past week about building synergy between Oscar, Jake and Jack for the future. I think we legit see him as going beyond next year and into another contract.

Barring injury [and lets be honest Oscar is never far away from somehow destroying himself] Maric is going to have to go down back and J-Williams is going to have to wait until he's 25 before he gets a 2024 Waterman style break. Bailey simply has to go to another club. Even having him playing WAFL he's either holding J Will or Archer Reid out of a key forward post, or taking time off Barnett and Livingston in the ruck.Ironically he'd probably make a better tall defender than either Jameison or Maric but we see him as the next Paul Samon. Even if he were to be a defender Gov and TB are locks for another 18 months at least and Hedwards has a lot of experience and Jameison is on his way with Bazzo and maybe Busslinger in the mix as well.

There is just no spot for him anywhere really. Which is a shame because he's been asked to carry a mighty load for us over the past two seasons and clearly can play at the level. I assume someone will come knocking and we'll pull a Mitch Brown with him and say he's contracted and too important to us to let go.
 
Have defo seen a monumental shift on this board regarding Bailey Williams position in the side.

Seems it's gone from 'he's a natural forward', to 'he's fine just give it time', to 'he can't play forward at all' in the past month.

Simpson is on crack, he's only delaying the inevitable here, which is Williams demoted to the WAFL and Flynn rucking on his own.. aka bad list management.



IN - Reid, Kelly, Hall
OUT - Hutchinson, Rotham, Jones


Another one to keep an eye on is Hunt, I feel his sub par season has flown under the radar a bit on here.

Possibly he overachieved a bit last year in his first season, he certainly hasn't hit those heights again. Numbers are down across the board. 7 touches in a whole game of footy last week. He hasn't had a return that bad since round 12 2022 for Melbourne (3 disposals).
Look, I've been vocal on this board in saying BWill isn't a forward since 1984. Whilst many have been later to the party, mostly after the introduction of the internet to Australia and some even not until after the birth of BWill, I don't think the shift is as monumental as you make out. I think most worked out pretty early on that he doesn't have the key traits to make it as a forward but yes, there were a minority that were talking it up- Simmo included.
 
This is where my frustration grows. If we're playing our more experienced side I expect us to win. Not playing a few more of the kids and losing just seems like a wasted opportunity at development.

I am fully aware that "play the youth" is not an entirely viable option at all times however.
The only two young players who should be playing are out injured in Long and Hewett.
You could also mount a case for Jwilliams ahead of Bwilliams.
The two old players who shouldn't be playing is Gaff and Sheed because they are struggling.
Darling has been alright but decisions will have to be made about what our forward line looks like eventually
I would prefer Jwilliams in front of Bwilliams unless Flynn is injured and in that case both would play
 
Regarding the ruck set up, it shouldn't be overlooked that by the numbers we actually had a really good clearance game against essendon- won the overall clearances 44-35 -without Reid or Kelly, compared to 41-40 to essendon the first time we played them this year. And unfortunately it's hard to choose between Flynn and BWilliams even purely looking at them as ruckmen at the moment, because for all his limitations Williams actually is the superior centre square ruck because of his leap and second efforts, whereas Flynn is vastly better around the ground. So take one out of the lineup and there's a problem.

I'd like to see how this current ruck lineup functions with Kelly and Reid back in- if we can add another 5 or 10 clearances on top of this week's differential we will win most games on that- and tall forwards are most dangerous when they are getting lots of good quality ball sent in quick and deep by good users.

And just on that last point for all the talk about our forward line being too tall we had the same number of scoring shots as essendon, we just couldn't kick for shit and meanwhile they nailed some absolute gems from the pocket. More accurate kicking and we easily could have gotten 12+ goals from Waterman/Allen/Darling/Cripps and coasted to a win and everyone would be talking about how lethal our forward line looked.
 
Look, I've been vocal on this board in saying BWill isn't a forward since 1984. Whilst many have been later to the party, mostly after the introduction of the internet to Australia and some even not until after the birth of BWill, I don't think the shift is as monumental as you make out. I think most worked out pretty early on that he doesn't have the key traits to make it as a forward but yes, there were a minority that were talking it up- Simmo included.
Well, clearly you're amazing, but wasn't BW trained as a forward all preseason (naturally or not)? Not saying therefore he should be up front..

Also for those on Hunt, he isn't going anywhere. A subpar (?) season or not, his pace is always needed.
 
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