Saints at $3.50

[yeee_haaaa!!!!!]

I have it on good authority from a guy working at the St Kilda Baths that a couple of the key Saints (unfortunately I cannot name names) were decidedly proppy on Sunday morning, and this has filtered through to the bookies and the regular $10K+ punters. The Saints will name at least one of these players on Thursday but expect that player to be a late withdrawal on Friday evening or to play with painkillers.

Dal Santo would be one of those you speak of. Has been proppy with a back related complaint ever since withdrawing from the PIes game 6 weeks ago.

 

[Pumbi]

Dal Santo would be one of those you speak of. Has been proppy with a back related complaint ever since withdrawing from the PIes game 6 weeks ago.

Hasn't really affected his form though, which is at least a positive for a supporter like me.

19 (Smashed in the face against the Hawks), 20, 26, 21, 36 and 34 Disposals since returning, and was noticably superior against the Tigers in Round 21.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

According to Sportsbet. Cats have never lost to Saints in a Final. Don't know how far that goes back. Cats have won 4 out of the last 6 and 7 out of the past 11. This is the reason for those odds.

Hope this finals trend continues.

 

[vinum coupe]

According to Sportsbet. Cats have never lost to Saints in a Final. Don't know how far that goes back. Cats have won 4 out of the last 6 and 7 out of the past 11. This is the reason for those odds.

Hope this finals trend continues.

150 years



Did the word Never throw you?

 

[Hahndozer]

Clearly I tickled the feather of a bunch of AFL punters on this post, the point I was making was that 3.50 is not good odds regardless of it being in a 2 horse race.

If you had any idea about horse racing you would know even when there is 10 or so horses in a race there are only 1-2 chances. Like flag bet for example, Carlton, Freo, etc are in the field but the only realistic chances are collingwood, geelong, st kilda.

AFL is not worth punting on simply because there are not enough idiots betting on the underdog which makes the smart favourite 2 short.

Horse racing on the other hand you get 90% of people going to race meetings who have no clue about horses and decide "Oh I like the name of that" "Thats my favourite number" which helps build up the prize pool for serious punters to clean up.

To prove my point, without looking at a newspaper tell me what (C, W, D, T) mean.

Haven't backed your original silly comment with much better.

If you think there's only ever 2 chances in a a 10 horse race, then in almost every race you could guarantee yourself a collect with backing just those 2 horses.

Even in your example of being 3 contenders for the flag (ie an 8 horse race), given current odds you could organise your bet to ensure a net collect if either of Geelong, Saints or Pies won the GF.

 

[TheCatsMan]

on the face of it it looks odd but the new full forward, Mohamed Aameer, has a few of us a little concerned.

This is the funniest thing I have read all day.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

150 years



Did the word Never throw you?

Didn't know if they meant the current Geelong and Saints line ups or the entire history between the teams. Good stuff then!

 

[Jimpson]

According to Sportsbet. Cats have never lost to Saints in a Final. Don't know how far that goes back. Cats have won 4 out of the last 6 and 7 out of the past 11. This is the reason for those odds.

Hope this finals trend continues.

The St Kilda football club have a long and proud history of losing finals. But I just don't see how that would influence the betting now. Their losses to the cats 5, 10, 50 years ago don't matter, fact is they won the last game and the $3.50 on offer is great value.

Swans at $1.50 are pretty good too, they're a sure thing.

 

[Ricmel]

The St Kilda football club have a long and proud history of losing finals. But I just don't see how that would influence the betting now. Their losses to the cats 5, 10, 50 years ago don't matter, fact is they won the last game and the $3.50 on offer is great value.

Swans at $1.50 are pretty good too, they're a sure thing.

Correct. And one thing you DO know, the Saints WILL eventually win a final against the Cats.

In insurance terms, the longer you go without a claim, the closer you are to a claim.

 

[donbooger]

You can do better as well if Saints win it will be assuredly less then 39 points, so even better odds are available.

 

[sainter12riewoldt]

As has been said elsewhere.
Those prices are just a reflection of the premiership betting.
Therefor the cats have to be short.

It's not a true reflection of the tightness of this game.

If you are a saints supporter you'd have to back them.

The guy that apparently had 100k @ $5 on the flag should be doubling up here

wasnt it 500K at $6

 

[davis_756]

Haven't backed your original silly comment with much better.

If you think there's only ever 2 chances in a a 10 horse race, then in almost every race you could guarantee yourself a collect with backing just those 2 horses.

Even in your example of being 3 contenders for the flag (ie an 8 horse race), given current odds you could organise your bet to ensure a net collect if either of Geelong, Saints or Pies won the GF.

200 on geelong @ 2.70 = 540 collect
150 on collingwood @ 3.10 = 465 collect
100 on St Kilda @ 6.40 = 640 collect

450 total spend so you cant lose but why risk it for 15 dollars profit?

I don't punt that way, sure its the safe way to make sure you don't lose but you may as well go to work for an hour its a safer way to make 15 bucks.

-------------

Just on horse racing today at Sale:

Race 1
1st MARVELLOUS MISS $2.40F

Race 2
1st TYPEFACE $2.35F

Race 3
1st CHAPIN $2.80F

Race 4
1st CHILLED BY CHOICE $3.80F

Race 7
1st MO' MONEY $3.10F

There was 9 races so if you put 10 bucks on the favourite in every race you would have won $54.50

Yesterday at Ballarat 7 of the 8 winners were either favourite or 2nd favourite.

So yes you could win everyday if you wanted 2 by simply picking the favourites.

 

[magic_johnson!]

In insurance terms, the longer you go without a claim, the closer you are to a claim.

Not really. If you toss a coin twice and the first toss you get heads, it does not increase the chance of you getting a tails the second toss...

 

[QuietB]

Currently $1.53 on Betfair - like to hear davis explain how $3.50 is not good value now. Lay of at $2.70 for cats and sit back, have 20 beers and not really give a toss who wins

 

[davis_756]

You wouldn't bother putting anything on geelong now if you were game enough to tip the saints, 3.50 is still not good enough to tip against geelong. You would be a massive loser if you did that in every final they played.

 

[Hahndozer]

200 on geelong @ 2.70 = 540 collect
150 on collingwood @ 3.10 = 465 collect
100 on St Kilda @ 6.40 = 640 collect

450 total spend so you cant lose but why risk it for 15 dollars profit?

I don't punt that way, sure its the safe way to make sure you don't lose but you may as well go to work for an hour its a safer way to make 15 bucks.

-------------

Just on horse racing today at Sale:

Race 1
1st MARVELLOUS MISS $2.40F

Race 2
1st TYPEFACE $2.35F

Race 3
1st CHAPIN $2.80F

Race 4
1st CHILLED BY CHOICE $3.80F

Race 7
1st MO' MONEY $3.10F

There was 9 races so if you put 10 bucks on the favourite in every race you would have won $54.50

Yesterday at Ballarat 7 of the 8 winners were either favourite or 2nd favourite.

So yes you could win everyday if you wanted 2 by simply picking the favourites.

What are you doing wasting time on Big Footy? There may be a favourite winning somewhere that you could have had your hard earned on.

For every day where 5/9 favourites win, there's a day when no favourites win. That's why it's called "gambling".

 

[94_Eagles]

wasnt it 500K at $6

I thought it was 500K aswell. That punter would be licking his lips right now.

 

[Falchoon]

i jumped on Betfair this morning thinking if freo are any more than $1.65-$1.70 I'm on.

I got $2.32


I'm now half expecting to get on Collingwood at around $1.80

 

[MightySaint]

i jumped on Betfair this morning thinking if freo are any more than $1.65-$1.70 I'm on.

I got $2.32


I'm now half expecting to get on Collingwood at around $1.80

Pretty ridiculous really. Never really bet before, but 3.50 for the Saints and 2.30 for the dockers? Thats a joke.

 

[jerry springer]

best weekend ive had on the punt in awhile.how the saints were $3.10 with Roo playing had me ****ed

 

[luthor]

best weekend ive had on the punt in awhile.how the saints were $3.10 with Roo playing had me ****ed

Agree.

I got on the Saints @ $3.25 for under 40.....easy money.

Would have been really laughing if my $10 on Freo by 40+ had come home at $7.50.

Was a chance at 3/4 time but I feared that they would always ease off in the last quarter in the name of player "preservation" and unfortunately I was right

 

[BABYBOMBERS2007]

best weekend ive had on the punt in awhile.how the saints were $3.10 with Roo playing had me ****ed

Exactly, and he was in good form going into it. The Saints took their foot off the pedal late in the season.

 

[Alfonz]

I got on the Saints by 1-19 for $5.50. Unfortunately I had it rolled it into a stupid multi of Freo, Pies by 24+ and Swans by 24+, which was paying about 40-1. I thought I was so clever at half time yesterday, then easy money evaporated into no money.

 

[Ricmel]

Not really. If you toss a coin twice and the first toss you get heads, it does not increase the chance of you getting a tails the second toss...

It's not the same as the toss of a coin. There are variables that are not present in a coin toss. Eventually, Saints will beat Cats in a final.

 

[magic_johnson!]

It's not the same as the toss of a coin. There are variables that are not present in a coin toss. Eventually, Saints will beat Cats in a final.

And eventually you will toss a tail. There are variables, but just saying they will win because they havn't won in a while is crap.