Snoops 2016 List Management, Trade and Draft thoughts

[Anzacday]

Lukas Webb you mean from the Dogs?

That's what I wrote

 

[Horaceg]

Here is this year’s installment. Have been asked by a number of people if doing one this year and to be fair its been a work in progress for a while as I wanted to get the best read on the squad as have been 50:50 on my views on a number of players for a long time. In the end, I really wanted to wait until the last game before finalising.


Will keep it as short as possibly as don’t think people will want to read a complete ‘war and peace’ but please provide comment as I really enjoy the discussion off the back of it….as long as its constructive!


A LOT AT STAKE IN 2017


It’s a big year for CFC next year and Buckley has heaped the pressure on himself. As a result, Eddie will feel it to. To that end, they will pull out all stops to ensure they have all the ingredients they need in order to push into the Finals. One thing is for certain. They wont be investing heavily in getting more kids in the door. That’s where Gubby fits in. A master at the trading game and getting deals done. Also knows where a bunch of talented kids are hiding up north but seemingly now has a couple of areas to focus on.


NO QUESTION BUCKLEY WAS DEALT A CRAP HAND


A number of things have conspired to make this year just an absolutely horrific one for Buckley. If someone had told me at the start of the year we would have to endure;


- Our most exciting forward in Elliott out for the whole year

- Swan who is in your top 2-3 players going down in the first minutes of the season

- Brown being dropped due to poor form

- Cloke form being so bad he would dropped 3 times an average no better than a goal a game

- Our defensive game plan being so poor it was thrown out the window at the bye

- 39 players used and the bulk of them before the bye

- Scharenbergg, Langdon and Ramsay barely playing for the whole year


Then to be fair I don’t think I would have expected us to play finals.



WHAT DID WORK

Very little to be honest. The only upsides were;

- Treloar was worth every cent

- Adams developed further

- A number of the kids can play. Well done Dekka. Maynard, Wills, Smith, Crocker and Phillips all look good players and we got good games into them.



OUR BEST 22 IN 2017....PRE TRADES / DRAFT


The only real upside for Buckley is that he has had a pretty good look at everyone on the list and would have a reasonably definitive view on who is staying / going. I suspect he has now landed on the following as his best 22;


BACKS


RAMSAY – BROWN – MAYNARD

*GOLDSACK – REID – SMITH


MIDS


VARCOE – PENDLEBURY – SIDEBOTTOM

GRUNDY – TRELOAR – ADAMS


FORWARDS


ELLIOTT – WHITE – HOWE

COX – MOORE – DE GOEY


INTERCHANGE


WILLS – AISH – FASOLO - CRISP


*Goldsack is the contentious one. His game vs the Dogs reiterated his value and whilst many will disagree Collingwood would be mad to offload him. Given he has spent a large chunk of year in VFL and is close to Cloke his mind however may already be made up.



Depth Players (in no order)


Tom Langdon – I think they really rate him off HB as an intercept player. Speed and skill could improve. Going ok if cant find a spot for him. If Goldsack wasn’t there he could slot straight in.


Matt Scharenberg – What a talent. Gosh if we could get him into HB or midfield group it would add some skill and decision making.


Jono Marsh – I am 50:50 on him. Can intercept, close space and mark but under real heat his skill and decision making need improving before he is in.


Levi Greenwood – He would be right on the cusp and to be fair had some good footy late.


Tom Phillips – Had a good year. Probably wouldn’t have had much of a run if injuries hadn’t got us but shown enough and really built towards year end.


Ben Sinclair – Arguably in the form of his life pre concussion outing him.


Tim Broomhead – Another Buckley would have hoped would be in the forward 22 this year who wasn’t. Talented, skilled and a good decision maker so ideally you would keep him albeit injury prone.


Rupert Wills – A massive find. Would have Greenwood sweating bullets. Couple of areas to tidy up.


Ben Crocker – Showing glimpses and last game showed many. Said all along when he gets stronger watch out. Competitive bugger.


Lachie Keefe – Don’t under estimate what he could bring us next year.


Jarryd Blair – I am still 50:50 on him and given club seem to have suggested he will stay so lets leave it at that.



WHO GOES AND WHATS THEIR WORTH



Based on the above I think the following players are gone. Also fair bit of scuttlebutt around that a few more Pies aren't happy with whats happened to Dekka & Balme but lets leave this for now.


Dane Swan – Has retired. 700k of salary cap space will mean they spend 2017 hunting a FA.


Travis Cloke – Based on similar trades of years gone I am probably more at the bullish end of what people think. I also think they fact Collingwood are open to him staying means whoever wants him will have to pay up. I would think somewhere in the realm of 25 – 40 for him. Be disappointed if 40 as think that’s a speculative pick and better off having him stay and getting a FA pick for him next year. Ultimately I think the Dogs pick 30 (ish) will come to us or Lin Jong in a swap.


Jarrod Witts – Essendon, GWS, Brisbane to name a few would be asking about him. I know 2 of them have. Again if you look at young rucks they have a high price put on their heads even when you might not think they are that talented. I think Witts may end up in a swap for Hoskin-Elliott or Steele or get a very decent pick from the Lions. Otherwise I reckon 15-25 for him. Again quality in this years draft might see the back end of that but be staggered if any worse.


Jack Frost – I think it would be the same for him. He will seek to leave for opportunities and I think there will be a few clubs keen given there is a need at a number of clubs for them. GWS might be one if they lose Marchbank. Lions, Hawks, Freo and Essendon others. Hard to gauge Jack value but lets assume circa 45.


Marley Williams – With so many players ahead of him I think he will ask to go if the club don’t nudge him. I think a few clubs would have a need for him and would remember his best footy. Cameron Ling certainly uphold him on Ch7 a few weeks ago. I think Marley would be keen sought. I am thinking around 35-40 for him. If Essendon lost Hibberd they could appeal and Freo would be in the mix I would think. Maybe a swap with Ed Langdon? Lets say pick 35 for him.


Adam Oxley – He will look for opportunities elsewhere if the club don’t nudge him. Hasn’t really taken his chances last couple of weeks. Somewhere around 45 but look the offers will be limited I would think given didn't really do much late when he had the chance.


Alan Toovey – Retired


Brent Macaffer – retired


Matt Goodyear – I would delist him. Skills aren’t good enough. Not sure they will though.


Brayden Sier – Been a huge disappointment this year. Would demote to the rookie list.

Tim Golds - Delisted

Corey Gault - Delisted



NATIONAL DRAFT SELECTIONS


If we assume all the above then we will have 9 spots to fill on the senior list (ie get them to 40) and 1 to fill on the rookie list (Keefe, Thomas and Sier). I suspect they may go 8 on the senior list to give them a list of 39 and then have 5 rookies meaning we would be looking at 2 additional selections there.


Selections will be;

# 20 (Witts)

# 25 (2nd Round selection)

# 30 (Cloke)

# 35 (Williams)

# 40 (Frost)

# 43 (3rd Round selection)

# 45 (Oxley)

# 61 (4th Round selection)



THE TRADES


To be honest I think our squad is pretty good and I agree with Buckley there is good talent there. For me the gap is the key forward role to partner Moore. I just don’t have the confidence that Cox and White will be the year long answer but having said that I think Howe is a part of that as well if Goldsack stays and can play back.


The discussion points for me would really be around securing talented players like Marchbank, O’Meara and Hoskin-Elliott but our big problem is we really don’t have the ‘trade currency’ to get at the former two. We don’t have a first round pick this year and we aren’t allowed to use next years given didn’t take a first round pick in 2015 or 2016 and we have to take 2 in a 4 year period. Now what Collingwood could do is use their 2nd round selection from next year and package it with a pick from this year but more on that later.


To that end I would focus on identifying young talent that we can afford and on players who we think are a bit mispriced because of injury or lack of senior exposure in really good teams (Players like Docherty I think are really good examples of this). James Stewart and Will Hoskin-Elliott fit that mould. I would make them priorities



James Stewart for # 25


First things first I think he will be hard to prise out of GWS. My understanding is the kid is happy in NSW. Notwithstanding the club should make every effort to bring him back and lets Hope Gubby relationship can aide that. He is exactly the sort of forward that Buckley wants. Mobile, strong, good set of hands, can play duel roles and can kick. Outside of him there are few that are gettable I would think so its important to my mind to make this happen.



Will Hoskin-Elliott for Jarrod Witts


Been pretty unlucky with injury this year and is highly rated amongst the coaches for talent. His price is debatable but given he is contracted GWS wont let him go to the Pies for not much. If Witts doesn’t go here I suspect Collingwood will on trade the pick they get for him.



Lin Jong for Travis Cloke


I think this is probably highly likely to happen so lets include it and its probably fair. Jong is the type Buckley would like. Tough, competitive, speed, tackle machine and can play many roles. Most importantly he does what the coach needs.



Others of interest


Michael Walters – whispers around that Williams could be off to Fremantle for Walters. Would find that hard to believe given the Walters / Lyon relationship has been very good. Also cant see them letting Walters and Ballantyne go. If they thought they could get Pickett from GWS then maybe they would consider letting him go. Anyway if this was on I would slam dunk it. 25yo who is exactly what we need.


Jack Steele – He is on his way south and whilst not sure fits what we wants you would look at but think a Carlton / Saints / Hawks / Essendon will be the ones after him.


Paul Ahern – I really rate this kid. Would love to see him in our colors.


Nathan Hrovat – Only played the 4 games this year and would think he could be prised out. Ave near 20 touches in each game and he is a very good user of the ball.


Shane Kersten – Bit out of favour and would be interested in as a lead up forward.


Jeremy Finlayson – Bit might depend on Corr & Marchbank intentions. Good young key back prospect would look at.


Sam Reid – Name comes up every year but don’t need two brothers always injured.


Anthony Morabito – Interesting one for mine. Been going well in the WAFL and a change would probably suit him. We have the facilities for him and play on a softer ground. You would get him for not much.


Lukas Webb – Young Dog I am pretty drawn to. Think with good opportunity could become a talented HB type who sets up play. Not sure we need another though


Jarrod Pickett – Pies were well into him in the draft year and I think he will leave this year but suspect more likely for Perth.





HOW TO LAND THE MARLIN


JEAGER O’MEARA


As mentioned earlier the club will look and assess because they need more talented high end types but I don’t think the club have the currency to land him. Having said that lets have a look at a way they might;


Take our 2nd round selection from 2017 (which we can trade) and package it with our 2nd round from this year and trade to a club for a pick around 12-15 in this years draft. Some clubs will think that 2017 2nd round selection is probably worth 24 and with 25 and given the high quality of next years draft its possible someone will go for that. In addition you would give them Jarrod Witts who has a relationship with Eade and the Suns are desperate for a young ruck prospect as appears Nicholls may be on the move.

Now if it needed topping up then I would be open to adding an additional pick in one of the years. So you would offer pick # 14 & Jarrod Witts plus another selection you could muster up if required (Goldsack / Broomhead maybe). That might be in the ball park. That deal could also land Marchbank and Hoskin-Elliott!



NATIONAL AND ROOKIE DRAFT SELECTIONS


Based on the above we would then have a list of 34 and I think we will use 5 picks in the draft to take us to a senior list of 39. The following picks and (at this stage) this is what I would do with them;


# 35 – Patrick Kerr / Tall Forward

I am usually against taking key forwards late in the draft as history is against them but I might make an exception this year for Kerr. I think he is a terrific kid and I think Collingwood will know him well through Oakleigh connection. You don’t often find kids at junior level who are well versed in the art of 'leading'. This kids has it in spades. I am super impressed and hence fearful may go earlier but if here and good chance he is I would take him given his 194cm, hands and mobility are also in his favour.


# 40 - Josh Daicos / Small Forward

I think Daicos will get picked bid first and may well be pre here. I say that because its reasonably well accepted he has been hidden a little and that in what we have seen has been very good. Hence with more exposure and experience there is a lot to work with. His hands and feet are elite. He reads the ball well and navigates traffic. He has poise and decision making.


# 43 – Callum Brown / Small Forward / Inside Midfielder

He will get bid around here if not a bit higher. I actually rate him highly and in many ways he is similar to Tom Liberatore to my thinking which means could go earlier. The knock on Cal will be like Tom in that he doesn’t have huge hurt factor so its hard to know where he goes but kids like him can get bid pretty high and Clay Smith is a good example of that. A club just wants that type of player and his character and leadership skills will be valued.


# 45 – Brennan Cox / Tall Defender

Ideally it would be Griffin Logue but I think he might be gone so will go with the more realistic Cox. Talented key position type who probably better suited back but shown signs both ends. Other talls like Maibum, Sproule appeal in the draft as well.


# 61 – Jordan Ridley / Utility

I think he is the big riser and think there is a chance he will go in the 20-35 range. Can play a variety of roles but he has attributes that I think clubs would rate pretty highly and his upside is high.



ROOKIE DRAFT


We would then have space for 5 rookies with Keefe, Sier and Thomas taking three of them. I would then look at adding;


# 7 – Jeremy Goddard / Ruck

He would be the ruck prospect I would look at. He had a sensational year last year but for a variety of reasons this year fell off people's radar. He has talent and has been demonstrating it back in WA. I am usually against recruiting young rucks but I would have a look at him if he is around. Sean Darcy appeals a lot but has a few issues to hurdle first. To be fair there is a quite a few and I’d even be open to a delisted FA type.


# 25 – Jordan Kelly / Medium Defender

Absolutely deserves another chance and would surely get a spot if Goldsack was gone. If not him one player would love to get our hands on is Sam Fowler.



2017 BEST 22



BACKS


RAMSAY – BROWN – MAYNARD

GOLDSACK – REID – SMITH


MIDS


JONG – PENDLEBURY – SIDEBOTTOM

GRUNDY – ADAMS – TRELOAR


FORWARDS


VARCOE – STEWART – HOWE

ELLIOTT – MOORE – DE GOEY



INTERCHANGE


AISH – CRISP – HOSKIN-ELLIOTT – FASOLO


THE DEPTH


1 SCHARENBERG

2 LANGDON

3 BROOMHEAD

4 MARSH

5 GREENWOOD

6 BLAIR

7 SINCLAIR

8 PHILLIPS

9 CROCKER

10 WHITE

11 COX. M

12 WILLS

13 KERR

14 COX. B

15 DAICOS

16 BROWN. C

17 RIDLEY



Rookies


1 KEEFE

2 THOMAS

3 SIER

4 GODDARD

5 KELLY



OVERALL


It’s a good first 22 and if injury free would seriously push some sides and have a decent chance of finishing in the finals.


It has talent and I would argue Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Reid, Treloar and possibly Adams are all A grade players. That’s only 5 and we need 8 so really hoping some or all of Brown, Howe, Grundy, Varcoe, Elliott and Moore can push into that category. I am really confident Grundy, Elliott and Moore can.


What we really need and where the jury is still out is some of these younger ones to push into the B grade and become reliable top line players. Names like Aish, Crisp, De Goey, Fasolo, Scharenberg, Ramsay, Maynard, Jong, Hoskin-Elliott, Stewart, Goldsack, Broomhead, Langdon, Keefe are all guys who could go into the B grade and some of them could launch into the A grade as well next year.


The midfield is potentially one of the best and its getting some speed into it with Treloar, Crisp, Jong, Ramsay, Varcoe and WHE so I like that.


The key forwards worry me. Moore and Stewart would be the best bets for me. White is handy but very inconsistent. Still if Elliott, Howe, De Goey etc can be at their feet and providing contributions so we get an even spread that will help and it maybe why they dont go for a key forward type.


The backs don’t look great on paper but I have seen enough to feel that they should stick with that group and leave them to gel. They have individually shown really good signs and I think a better defensive effort across the field will help. They will all get there and if not Langdon, Scharenberg, Keefe, Sinclair are waiting for a shot.


Finally, there is genuine depth there now as well. Of the players not in the 22 you wouldn’t have many issues letting Scharenberg, Greenwood, Broomhead, Langdon, Blair, Wills, Keefe, Sinclair, Cox, Marsh, Phillips Crocker and White come in for games. That gives us a list of 35 players all who could make a contribution. That’s encouraging.


Bring it on Pies……and best of luck to ya Bucks!

Great read, a few things to keep an eye and really get the conversation going. I am really keen to see what we have with Sharenberg, possibly like everyone on here. Appreciate the effort and thx

 

[TradeDraft]

I think that is hopeful. I started out thinking Cloke was probably around 20 but now I am thinking 30.

So Cloke value is not very high?

 

[Schraderbrau]

Yeah it maybe harsh and to be fair i was 50:50 on it. A spot would be left open and there is always the chance of going up but the idea of getting his body right, getting his game contribution up and some form over the summer would have him back on before Rd 1. Couple of things in his game I really rate and he needs to use them more for mine. No question he can play but equally that wasnt a first year he or the club would have been happy with and yes there were injury considerations.

Sier was drafted in the knowledge that at least the first season would be a write off. It would be a cop out to delist or rookie based on that imo. I'm not that concerned about him, yet there are some indications that he could end up pretty good imo

 

[Snoop Dog]

Goldsack brings great tackling pressure and is hard as nails. His role in the fwd has been usurped by Wills who is our new tackling monster, relegating Goldsack to back line duties. I don't see Wills and another pure pressure player in the same fwd structure, in the longer term I am expecting Blair to make way there.

Makes a lot of sense.

 

[Snoop Dog]

On Stewart, I'm going totally on what I've seen at AFL, so I'm not really in a great position to judge. But from what I've seen he's a big man with ok small man skills, but few bigman skills. If he has become more physical, more dangerous in the air and is doing well at a lower level, he'd be worth consideration, because he is a good athlete with good ball skills.

....and thats what i have seen at NEAFL level with him. His ability to mark and compete in the air has been tremendous.

 

[Snoop Dog]

Great read Snoop Dog
Would be shopping Marley and hopefully to Freo. Absolute liability down back.
I'm actually quite confident we can do some good work this off season. Would make a good couple years in a row of it regardless of the position we finished.

Yeah I think thats right. The work the club have done in the off season more recently has been sensational even when things haven't go their way so when you are confident I share that. Have a look at some of the past few years;

Beams - that has been a win for us. Bloke has barely played for 2 years and whilst he will be good for them I have seen really good things from JDG more recently. Crisp has also been a big winner for us and was a great get.

Thomas - the club made absolutely the right call on him. If we had coughed up $600k for him you can only imagine who that would have meant we would have lost.

Mitch Clark - What a win staying away from that bloke. As per Thomas the medico's got that one right. Dodging him I think enabled us to get Varcoe so that was a win.

Howe - Thats been a win

Freeman - Effectively swapped for Aish and a 2nd rounder. I think Freeman is a footballer but the body is a massive ? We are ahead on that one.

H.Shaw - Heater playing great footy but we did well getting Adams back for mine and he will be a 10 year player for us.

Treloar - Yep he cost us 2 first rounders but we have got a Rolls Royce. A win.

Wellingham - Look he was one I would have love to have kept but he did squib it in a Prelim vs the Swans which irked me. The deal was a good deal. Jury still out on Broomhead though.

Dawes - That was a hard call but it was the right call. Kennedy and he have both been busts.

 

[Snoop Dog]

So Cloke value is not very high?

I don't think so. As I said I probably have lessened my expectations. I think Hall and Lake deals are good proxies.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Terrific post and see it pretty much the same way.

Stewart and Marchbank would be a win wouldnt it. I was musing today if you really wanted to spin the 'wheel' and given Gubby is now in the seat he may do it you could do;

Witts for Marchbank (will need a top up / maybe a pick for Broomhead as a top up). Witts will be worth a pick 15-20 and so with a Broomhead pick of say 30 added you might be in an effective range of about 10-12 so its just in the realms)
# 25 for WHE
Williams for Walters (dont think likely though)
Cloke for Jong
Pick receive from North for Brown ontraded for Stewart.

If you couldnt / didnt want to get JOM you could achieve that possibly.

And with marchbank wanting out maybe he does make it our way.
We can give him in number 34
Stewart can have number 36

Nice

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Sier was drafted in the knowledge that at least the first season would be a write off. It would be a cop out to delist or rookie based on that imo. I'm not that concerned about him, yet there are some indications that he could end up pretty good imo

I'm a bit pure on the drafted ones, I like having them for the two years. I think we must keep them all the same for two years.
I'm hoping Sier shows what his value might be

 

[TradeDraft]

....and thats what i have seen at NEAFL level with him. His ability to mark and compete in the air has been tremendous.

But would they come to Us after Passing him as a Father/Son?

 

[Prochard123]

Do you know what the word literally means?

Yes, in this case, adding him to a deal makes no difference.

 

[Bay Pie]

As an aside. with these changes what does Tim Broomhead do?

I like him, but he really needs to stop getting injured. Has talent but has a smallish frame. Perhaps he's just not cut out for AFL footy. It's getting close to make or break for his career.

Note: we got Grundy for Wellingham so that was a massive win.

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

Sier was drafted in the knowledge that at least the first season would be a write off. It would be a cop out to delist or rookie based on that imo. I'm not that concerned about him, yet there are some indications that he could end up pretty good imo

I reckon he was a waste of a first selection, but who am I to judge?! What makes you think he might 'end up pretty good'?

 

[TradeDraft]

Hey there you are.

See post above. I didnt like what I saw early but I really warmed to it in the 2nd half. He has a way to go but he has the ability to really dominate a game. He reads it well, he is happy to work both ways (a number of times he was deep in the back end helping out) but also happy to back himself forward. For him I think its an effort and intensity level. He has everything else.

I think everyone was Concerned about Aish at start of season. But the Turn around have been Massive. I was glad his Attitude was so good when he was Sent Down to the VFL. He even said he was not surprised(Guess Expecting) that he was Going to get Dropped. Then the Time he was down there he turned his game around. With his last Game in BOG game vs Casey down at Casey on a very wet afternoon. Was so clean.

Hopefully he has a Big/Injury-Free Pre-Season so does get Stronger and Bigger Engine. Then I can see him Exploding and Cementing Himself in the Best 22 and becoming a Really Exciting Talent at AFL Level.

Don't think he is Competing against Wills as he is a Big Body Mid and that is Not Aish.

Phillps is a Player he would be Competing against. Phillps gets bit more of the Ball but Aish Touches have lot more Impact

 

[Justlokan]

Take our 2nd round selection from 2017 (which we can trade) and package it with our 2nd round from this year and trade to a club for a pick around 12-15 in this years draft. Some clubs will think that 2017 2nd round selection is probably worth 24 and with 25 and given the high quality of next years draft its possible someone will go for that. In addition you would give them Jarrod Witts who has a relationship with Eade and the Suns are desperate for a young ruck prospect as appears Nicholls may be on the move.

Wow I love these threads- thanks Snoop.
Not sure if it's been mentioned but I read that Nicholls has signed on to GC.
TBH I'd prefer to stay away from JOM. The patella issue is scary and I'd hate to have another Scharenberg.
The only way I'd want the Pies to be involved with JOM is via a 3-way trade with another club.

Again thanks

 

[Snoop Dog]

Great read as always Snoop Dog.

I think last year you had identified particular areas of need whereas this year it seems you're chasing talent regardless of position. I would go another way, I think after this year looking at Treloar, Grundy, Aish, De Goey, Moore and hopefully Scharenberg next year in addition to the 'older' core of players we have (Pendles, Adams, Reid, Howe, Fasolo, Elliott) we have most of our top talent sorted for the short to medium term (long term needs more KPP). We need to get more pointed in our recruitment and address real areas of need, so for instance I would not go for Marchbank or Jong. Not that they aren't good players but our second tall defender role is filled by Reid (and backed up by Marsh and Frost as depth), and our mid rotations are so full we've had to play players like Greenwood and De Goey out of position.

We can break down our best 22 and depth to identify areas of need. I've put the players I had differently from your best 22 in blue, and what I feel are our areas of weakness in red. I've also broken down the mix at each line as I think it's important we get this right – at times we have gone too tall, or with too many mids, or have neglected the importance of a forward line as something else than a resting line for extra mids.

Backline (2 smalls, 2 medium, 2 talls)
Ramsay – Keeffe – Maynard
Marsh – Reid – Howe

Midfield (1 ruck, 3 core 'in-and-out' mids, 2 'outside' mids)
Grundy – Treloar – Pendlebury – Adams
Crisp – Sidebottom

Forward line (at least 1 tall, 1 ruck-forward, 1 small forward, 2 half forwards)
Broomhead – White – Fasolo
Cox – Moore – Elliott

Interchange (versatile players with least 1 that can play in defense and 1 forward)
Smith – Aish – De Goey - Varcoe

Solid depth:
Tall defenders: Brown (?), Frost
Medium defenders: Goldsack, Scharenberg, Langdon, Oxley
Small defenders: Sinclair, Williams (?)
Inside mids: Greenwood, Wills, Goodyear, C. Brown (think he's an inside mid, correct me if not)
Outside mids: ...
Ruck and ruck/forwards: Witts (?)
Half forwards: Blair, J. Daicos (think he's a half forward/mid, correct me if not)
Small and medium forwards: Crocker
Tall forwards: ...

With the players I've put in vs your 22, I was a believer in Keeffe two years ago and I'm hoping he hasn't lost too much since then. With him the the mix I think our backline starts to look like it has really strong defensive ability as well as rebounding ability. I don't disagree that Goldsack could replace Marsh in the best 22 especially as he was on fire at the end of this season but I've put in Marsh just looking at the future maybe around mid-season. Broomhead I'm hoping he doesn't leave (not as many rumours this year) and stays injury free because he could be of great help in an area of need and to me would make the best 22 even if it's by default. I think Howe was too valuable in defence to move unless we have a huge resurgence of Langdon or Scharenberg really smashing it; not only was he great at rebounding and play making from the back line, but he also defended increadibly well – he's #1 in the competition for one-on-one contests won.

When you look at this the clear areas of need are:
- More outside talent
- More forward talent, particularly if they are a ground-level small forward or a tall second forward
- Cheap back up ruck for depth if Witts goes

Based on this I don't see the point of us going after players like Lin Jong or Jaeger O'Meara (if he didn't have injury issues and wouldn't cost 2 first rounders yes because the opportunity would be too great, but that's not the case). We have too many mids as it stands, neither should we go for Marchbank or Tomlinson (if we consider Tomlinson a second tall defender).

However when you listed Walters I thought you were going off a rumour you've heard and got excited. He would be incredibly perfect for our list, the right player, the right position and the right age bracket. Other players I liked as the targets you listed would be Pickett or Stewart/Kersten as you listed and Hoskin-Elliott but a bit afraid of his AFL-level output and injuries so seems like extra depth versus clear 22 for me.

Anyone else you can think of that we could target this year or could be drafted that would fit our needs as a small forward (Michael Walters the ideal type), second tall forward (Cameron McCarthy the ideal type) or outside mid (Andrew Gaff the ideal type)?

What a great post.

Sorry if I misled. My trades are very much around what I think we need which I think tie in with yours;

Key forward - and hence why James Stewart is a target. Another one to look at is Michael Close, Fraser McINness, Jono Freeman.

Speed and talent - Hoskin-Elliott and more the latter for Jong (I am not that fussed on Jong its more in bc I know the club are keen ...or were). WHE I am a big fan of. JOM has serious outside talent as well. I see him as an in and out player.

Ruck - I have Goddard as a draftee but easily go with a more experienced option.

Small forward - I would love a small crumbing forward like Walters (who I do hear on the grapevine as player who could be moved.... but again I don't believe it) but i just can't find many (Matera / Pickett / Green / Neade?) hence I am looking to going to the draft for Brown and Daicos and sticking with Blair. I am hopeful Brown comes on quickly and I am easily convinced tim broomhead can step up.

Hence I agree around the key backs. With Reid, Brown, Marsh, Keefe I think we are ok for the time being and should focus more on the above.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I reckon he was a waste of a first selection, but who am I to judge?! What makes you think he might 'end up pretty good'?

I'm guessing the reason is, if an astute recruiter spotted him, something was there.
It's not a perfect science but usually the better recruiters know what they see.

In horse training some trainers can see things in horses as yearlings. Just watching them run in the paddock.
The greatest person at this was the late (and greatest of them all) Bart Cummings.
He'd watch them run in the paddock and see things we'd just guess at.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Wow I love these threads- thanks Snoop.
Not sure if it's been mentioned but I read that Nicholls has signed on to GC.
TBH I'd prefer to stay away from JOM. The patella issue is scary and I'd hate to have another Scharenberg.
The only way I'd want the Pies to be involved with JOM is via a 3-way trade with another club.

Again thanks

Agree.
JOM is too injury concerned,agree.
If he was on our list I'd persevere. But he's not, can be passed on, I reckon.

 

[Schraderbrau]

I reckon he was a waste of a first selection, but who am I to judge?! What makes you think he might 'end up pretty good'?

This my opinion but it seems most think he's a flop so who knows. Imo, he's going to end up a big unit, when he gets near it he has clean hands in stoppages and generally keeps his head when he gets the ball. His problem right now is that he lacks strength and gets pushed out of the way too easily in stoppages and doesn't have the tank to find much ball on the outside. His pace is pretty good for someone his size.

You have to remember that he's still very young and has gone from playing in an ok schoolboy footy comp to playing against men in the country's second strongest competition. That's a huge step up and it's not a surprise that he's taking a while to adapt, especially considering he's had a few injury interruptions. Our expectations of him should be more in line with a ruck or key position player who require more time to develop. We've come to expect mids to make an impact relatively early but many of these guys are well developed and been involved in elite underage programs for a number of years. Even then many of them struggle to make an immediate impact (i.e. Aish). Sier has neither of these advantages but I'd rather take the punt on his potential than other midfielders who were drafted around his spot. For example, Rhys Mathieson was a midfielder we could of drafted and who was tipped to go around 30. He's made an immediate impact at Brisbane, is in their best 22 but is a very limited play with little scope for improvement. He's not someone who's will ever make a difference when it matters - he's a best 18-22 player at best. So are Phillips and Smith fwiw. They are all much much better than Sier atm but I'd take Sier in a heartbeat for what he could be.

 

[sr36]

Hence I agree around the key backs. With Reid, Brown, Marsh, Keefe I think we are ok for the time being and should focus more on the above.

Jeez. I reckon you two are way off on key backs. The way I see it, we like to switch backwards, thus guys who are liabilities with the ball - Brown and Frost should be on the way out. Marsh is in a similar boat, except it's too early to write off his ball use. Keeffe hasn't played for 2 years and Reid's body can't be relied upon. In my mind, a ready to go tall defender and a future prospect are necessities.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

This my opinion but it seems most think he's a flop so who knows. Imo, he's going to end up a big unit, when he gets near it he has clean hands in stoppages and generally keeps his head when he gets the ball. His problem right now is that he lacks strength and gets pushed out of the way too easily in stoppages and doesn't have the tank to find much ball on the outside. His pace is pretty good for someone his size.

You have to remember that he's still very young and has gone from playing in an ok schoolboy footy comp to playing against men in the country's second strongest competition. That's a huge step up and it's not a surprise that he's taking a while to adapt, especially considering he's had a few injury interruptions. Our expectations of him should be more in line with a ruck or key position player who require more time to develop. We've come to expect mids to make an impact relatively early but many of these guys are well developed and been involved in elite underage programs for a number of years. Even then many of them struggle to make an immediate impact (i.e. Aish). Sier has neither of these advantages but I'd rather take the punt on his potential than other midfielders who were drafted around his spot. For example, Rhys Mathieson was a midfielder we could of drafted and who was tipped to go around 30. He's made an immediate impact at Brisbane, is in their best 22 but is a very limited play with little scope for improvement. He's not someone who's will ever make a difference when it matters - he's a best 18-22 player at best. So are Phillips and Smith fwiw. They are all much much better than Sier atm but I'd take Sier in a heartbeat for what he could be.

Great post, very thorough explanation.
Never thought of Sier v others at that stage of the draft who have less upside etc.
Interesting take.

 

[Vankri]

Jeez. I reckon you two are way off on key backs. The way I see it, we like to switch backwards, thus guys who are liabilities with the ball - Brown and Frost should be on the way out. Marsh is in a similar boat, except it's too early to write off his ball use. Keeffe hasn't played for 2 years and Reid's body can't be relied upon. In my mind, a ready to go tall defender and a future prospect are necessities.

If you think about the end of the year and you had Reid-Howe-Ramsay-Maynard-Keeffe-Scharenberg as a starting 6 you have no liability ball in hand down back.

Of course you can always improve on every line. If we got Rance, Brodie Smith and Hurn we would improve on our defence. If we got Fyfe and Dangerfield we would improve on our midfield. If an impossible-to-turn-down opportunity came up you would do it in a heartbeat. But to me Marchbank is not that opportunity. Too young and too many question marks.

Therefore it becomes about what area we are the weakest and would make the most difference should we improve it and to me - and it seems to Snoop as well - that's forward talent as a second mobile tall or a crumbing forward, or outside talent with speed to supplement our inside mids.

Would love the Walters rumour to be true. Tell us if you hear anything more on it Snoop Dog

 

[sr36]

If you think about the end of the year and you had Reid-Howe-Ramsay-Maynard-Keeffe-Scharenberg as a starting 6 you have no liability ball in hand down back.Snoop Dog

Agree that that back 6 looks good on paper, but Keeffe hasn't played for 2 years and Reid is fragile. Neither are young. I just think we desperately need to bring in at least one young kpd. Highest priority in my mind.

 

[Snoop Dog]

Sier was drafted in the knowledge that at least the first season would be a write off. It would be a cop out to delist or rookie based on that imo. I'm not that concerned about him, yet there are some indications that he could end up pretty good imo

Yeah fair points. I agree and to be fair the games I caught of him weren't his best ones and yes there are some tricks there with him but I think if we are being honest he has a fair way to go. He played 8 games and we should discount his last one obviously but possession for those 7 games were in the range of 6 to 17 and something like 3 of those games had him at less than 10. It wasnt great and he didn't take a contested mark in any game. Granted I didn't see every game but he wasnt hidden on a flank all the time either. Now against that, he hasn't had the normal development path and therefore he shouldn't be measured against a kid that might as he would have needed more development / training etc. You are right he is a long term play and I want to keep him but I question whether we are better off using that senior list spot for someone else.