Teams you think will definitely not make the 8

[Rod Stroker]

For me, GWS, Melb, StK and GC are the certainties to miss. I don't reckon GC will improve enough on last year to make finals this year. Not saying they'll finish bottom 4, I just think they won't finish in the top 8.
Brisbane, Dogs and the Crows also in the mix.

But really who knows. Port bolted from cellar dwellars to finalists last year, Crows did something similar the year before.

 

[Tas]

Tas thanks for that, your figures seem to differ from Daz in this thread: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/3rd-most-experienced-list-in-the-afl.1048170/

Who is right?

Mine includes rookies, most sides are hit with LTIs and will rely on the rookies, those with mature aged rookies are more likely to make an impact than young project players.

 

[Jobe Watson]

Fair to have an opinion but just wondering why not?
We went into round 23 with a chance to make it in 2013 after a shocking year.

Losing Walker for the year, Thompson played most of the year with an injury and Brent Reilly missed a lot of time, plus the whole Trigg/Tippett saga didnt exactly work for us. Plus it was common knowledge we focussed on the wrong things in preseason, meaning we were slow and unfit for the first half of the year.

I might be biased but I think we'll be well around the mark for that 6-10 position this year and I'm shocked to see us on the "will definitely not make" list.

I just don't think you're as good as other people might think you are.

For me, Sydney, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne and Carlton all have better shots at making the 8 than Adelaide and West Coast + Port Adelaide have about an equal chance. You've lost your captain Van Berlo for the best part of the season. Tex Walker is coming back from a serious injury and may take a while to click into gear. Thompson + Rutten + Reilly + Pods will all be 30+ and you would expect their output to start declining this year. And I personally don't think your depth is that great. But you do have a good draw which could go along way to helping you get a finals spot.

But hey, there are a few young guns on Adelaide's list - Grigg, Crouch, Sloane, Dangerfield, Talia - and the inclusion of Eddie Betts will be handy, so they and Adelaide could very well prove me wrong. I just have you guys behind a few other teams at the moment.

 

[Quinz]

Given the draw, list experience and recent performance I have St Kilda, GWS, Melbourne and Brisbane as a clear bottom 4. However, three have new coaches and the other is a youth factory, so any of them could conceivably surprise. I can't see any of them making the 8 though.

 

[Dan12]

I think there are going to be some surprises this season in terms of how teams perform. I think mature teams and experienced teams have a better probability of making the finals. Obviously easy draws play a massive factor in skewing the odds but I think a problem we have had in recent years was the lack of experience and maturity, we were in the bottom quarter in terms of age and experience.

Great stats mate, is there any way you could get the age bracket breakdowns for each club? Would just be another beneficial stat.

 

[Big Trozza]

I just don't think you're as good as other people might think you are.

For me, Sydney, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne and Carlton all have better shots at making the 8 than Adelaide and West Coast + Port Adelaide have about an equal chance. You've lost your captain Van Berlo for the best part of the season. Tex Walker is coming back from a serious injury and may take a while to click into gear. Thompson + Rutten + Reilly + Pods will all be 30+ and you would expect their output to start declining this year. And I personally don't think your depth is that great. But you do have a good draw which could go along way to helping you get a finals spot.

But hey, there are a few young guns on Adelaide's list - Grigg, Crouch, Sloane, Dangerfield, Talia - and the inclusion of Eddie Betts will be handy, so they and Adelaide could very well prove me wrong. I just have you guys behind a few other teams at the moment.

Thats fine that you don't rate us but you clearly know very little about our list.

 

[DangerSloane]

I just don't think you're as good as other people might think you are.

For me, Sydney, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne and Carlton all have better shots at making the 8 than Adelaide and West Coast + Port Adelaide have about an equal chance. You've lost your captain Van Berlo for the best part of the season. Tex Walker is coming back from a serious injury and may take a while to click into gear. Thompson + Rutten + Reilly + Pods will all be 30+ and you would expect their output to start declining this year. And I personally don't think your depth is that great. But you do have a good draw which could go along way to helping you get a finals spot.

But hey, there are a few young guns on Adelaide's list - Grigg, Crouch, Sloane, Dangerfield, Talia - and the inclusion of Eddie Betts will be handy, so they and Adelaide could very well prove me wrong. I just have you guys behind a few other teams at the moment.

Dont be under any illusions, this will probably help us.
He was boarderline best 22 last season.

I dont doubt that we're behind those teams. We may not be but probably are. Doesnt mean we're a lock to miss the finals though, when you've only named 8 teams ahead of us.

 

[Carlo]

Collingwood!!

Could be well out of contention before their bye.

Also Carlton will struggle.

 

[Ron The Bear]

GWS, St.Kilda, Bulldogs. Melbourne & Brisbane unlikely.

 

[kreglze]

In my mind GWS, St Kilda and Melbourne are the only 3 definites. Everyone else has a chance ranging from slight to a lock for finals.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk

 

[Tas]

Great stats mate, is there any way you could get the age bracket breakdowns for each club? Would just be another beneficial stat.

            18-    22-    26-
Team        #    21    25    29    30+

Hawthorn    46    16    18    9    3
Fremantle    45    16    12    14    3
Geelong        46    21    15    6    4
Sydney        45    18    13    9    5
North        45    17    16    9    3
Richmond    44    15    18    9    2
Collingwood    45    20    12    10    3
Essendon    45    17    19    7    2
Port Adelaide    46    19    18    7    2
Carlton        45    14    16    11    4
Adelaide    45    16    20    5    4
Brisbane    46    21    13    10    2
West Coast    44    18    17    7    2
Gold Coast    44    29    8    6    1
Bulldogs    44    19    14    7    4
St Kilda    45    19    14    8    4
Melbourne    44    14    22    6    2
GWS        47    35    6    5    1

Formatting is a bit stuffed up, but meh, it is readable.

Brackets are 18-21, 22-25, 26-29 and 30+

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

GWS, St.Kilda, Bulldogs. Melbourne & Brisbane unlikely.

Just out of curiosity, you see the Demons placed more favourably than the Dogs? Interested to hear your thoughts.

 

[Dazb86]

St Kilda and GWS.

 

[38Rockliff38]

They beat GWS and Richmond...two wins in a row and one of them was against an eventual finalist.

North Melbourne flogged Brisbane by 10 goals earlier in the year, just a little while after Brisbane ran around Etihad celebrating their NAB cup premiership as if they'd just won something of real significance

What's the nab cup got to do with it?

 

[Royce Hafey]

            18-    22-    26-
Team        #    21    25    29    30+

Hawthorn    46    16    18    9    3
Fremantle    45    16    12    14    3
Geelong        46    21    15    6    4
Sydney        45    18    13    9    5
North        45    17    16    9    3
Richmond    44    15    18    9    2
Collingwood    45    20    12    10    3
Essendon    45    17    19    7    2
Port Adelaide    46    19    18    7    2
Carlton        45    14    16    11    4
Adelaide    45    16    20    5    4
Brisbane    46    21    13    10    2
West Coast    44    18    17    7    2
Gold Coast    44    29    8    6    1
Bulldogs    44    19    14    7    4
St Kilda    45    19    14    8    4
Melbourne    44    14    22    6    2
GWS        47    35    6    5    1

Formatting is a bit stuffed up, but meh, it is readable.

Brackets are 18-21, 22-25, 26-29 and 30+

That's only 4 brackets and yet you have 5 numbers for each club.

 

[Richo83]

That's only 4 brackets and yet you have 5 numbers for each club.

The far left number is the total number of players on each list.

 

[Tas]

That's only 4 brackets and yet you have 5 numbers for each club.

Yeah, the first number is the total number of players on the list.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Just out of curiosity, you see the Demons placed more favourably than the Dogs? Interested to hear your thoughts.

More mature list. Melbourne is probably the most difficult team to predict this year. Anywhere from 2-9 wins wouldn't shock me.

Dogs are on the right track but will need more time after such an extensive rebuild. I reckon they'll struggle to improve on last year's 8 wins, whilst being more competitive in defeat. Dogs are in the better position long-term, IMO.

 

[KillaKanga]

Only Melbourne, Saints, GWS and probably the Doggies and Brisbane are the ones who I think will all definitely come up short

Modality??? You think the doggies and Brisbane will probably definitely come up short? Hedging those bets hey.

think our list may surprise a few this year
but more looking forward to the next 5 years

Before I know whether to listen to your opinion, are you Melvin or Mario?

As for the OP?? Definitely means you would bet $50,000 without a sweat.

I wouldn't do that for any team ATM.

GWS, Saints, Demons are most likely to miss.

Next bracket being Bulldogs, Lions and Eagles as not likely

Then Suns, Eagles as a chance

Crows are my hardest to read, somewhere between these groups.

Then Essendon, Carlton, Kangaroos, Tigers, Cats, Magpies as a very good chance.

Swans, Freo and Hawks as very likely but NOT locks.

Whatever happens this year whoever finishes 10-12 is going to be considered a very strong team historically for that position.

 

[Big Sauce 21]

Dogs, lions, blues, GWS, demons, saints, port

 

[Piers4Life]

Melbourne will never make the eight again.

 

[Tiger2709]

great question;

on ability ; melbourne, giants, bulldogs, lions, saints and essendon

richmond made the finals last year and that only happens once a decade .... so add them

Carlton didn't make the finals last year but got a charity berth anyway, highly unlikely to make it this year, unless again given a free ride.

 

[Tiger2709]

Just curious, why does everyone have Brisbane as a certainty to miss the 8? Came within a bees dick of the 8 this year, and haven't lost any crucial players

Must be damn big bees up in Brisbane, if you think 8 points and a heap of percentage is a bees dick?

 

[FuManchu]

Derm has WC as the big sliders this year: no midfield he reckons.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Collingwood go as low as tenth or as high as 6th. Next year we will be in a far better position and should be on the rise. I think Collingwood have recognised this as well and circumvented any talk about Buckley's position by going early with a contract extension.

 

[crowsforlife]

GWS definitely won't.