Teams you think will definitely not make the 8

[the_interloper]

GWS definitely won't.

I agree. Once everyone figures out how clever this call is we'll be hosting AFL 360 together.

 

[38Rockliff38]

Must be damn big bees up in Brisbane, if you think 8 points and a heap of percentage is a bees dick?

Go watch round 23 again. We were VERY close to making the finals. a 1 point loss for us and a 1 point win for Carlton cost us a spot.

 

[Carlo]

great question;

on ability ; melbourne, giants, bulldogs, lions, saints and essendon

richmond made the finals last year and that only happens once a decade .... so add them

On ability Essendon make it hands down, Our best troubles everyone, And I honestly believe this is the year we shake off that mid season slump tag.

 

[Jet86]

Go watch round 23 again. We were VERY close to making the finals. a 1 point loss for us and a 1 point win for Carlton cost us a spot.

Only a very rough projection, but I have Brisbane finishing with 8-10 wins this year. Too many better teams in front of them.

 

[dinger]

GWS, Saints, Melbourne will definitely not make it. Give them all a few years to develop.
Teams I'm dubious about when it comes to performance are Bulldogs, Brisbane, Adelaide, PAFC, Carlton, GC, Brisbane, North Melbourne, WCE and Carlton, I don't think any of the following will hit the top 4 but a few have reasonable chance for the top 8.

 

[Carlo]

Go watch round 23 again. We were VERY close to making the finals. a 1 point loss for us and a 1 point win for Carlton cost us a spot.

That was holding the ball as well on that damn Chapman!!!

Now where have I heard that name before??

 

[38Rockliff38]

Only a very rough projection, but I have Brisbane finishing with 8-10 wins this year. Too many better teams in front of them.

Yep that's about what I reckon aswell. We are still a small chance of making the finals though

 

[38Rockliff38]

That was holding the ball as well on that damn Chapman!!!

Now where have I heard that name before??

Yep, that stupid umpiring decision in the dying seconds cost us the game. He dived on it and dragged it in and didn't get it out. Holding the ball every day of the week! Also Port had a chance to win the game against Carlton in the dying seconds, but hit the post. A couple of pretty unfortunate things right there for us - if those 2 things went our way we would of made the finals.

 

[Jet86]

Yep that's about what I reckon aswell. We are still a small chance of making the finals though

Definitely. Projections can change a fair bit after the pre-season. Very few rated Brisbane 12 months ago, yet plenty tipped them for finals after they won the (prestigious) NAB Cup. And of course the projections can always be very wrong!

 

[38Rockliff38]

Definitely. Projections can change a fair bit after the pre-season. Very few rated Brisbane 12 months ago, yet plenty tipped them for finals after they won the (prestigious) NAB Cup. And of course the projections can always be very wrong!

We named a very inexperienced side to take on the hawks on thursday - most of the senior players aren't playing, and almost all of our new draftees & rookies are debuting. Hawks named a very strong side, lots of their senior players are playing, will be interesting to see how we go

 

[Jet86]

We named a very inexperienced side to take on the hawks on thursday - most of the senior players aren't playing, and almost all of our new draftees & rookies are debuting. Hawks named a very strong side, lots of their senior players are playing, will be interesting to see how we go

Any players in particular you're keen on watching? Haven't heard a lot about the Brisbane rookies apart from Aish and Lewis Taylor.

 

[38Rockliff38]

Any players in particular you're keen on watching? Haven't heard a lot about the Brisbane rookies apart from Aish and Lewis Taylor.

Aish, Cutler, Robertson, Mcstay, Hayes, Bourke, Close, Obrien and Smith will be the ones to look out for. Taylor and Gardiner are both recovering from injuries so won't be playing.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-02-11/nab-challenge-squads-hawks-lions

 

[Tas]

Carlton's demographic tells me they surely have to make the eight, and possibly the top four as well. They finish second, second, fifth and fourth in the respective categories. Even if you just focus on the main list they're in the top five for average age and games played. Malthouse has inherited an aging list and needs to strike. They're one of the teams which can probably least afford to have an average year.

I don't think being aged is as negative as it was in the past, because with free agency you can add in numerous experienced players into your side to replace retirees, if you so desire. Carlton lost Betts, Hampson and Laidler and picked up Docherty, Everitt and Thomas so losing players didn't hurt them.

Ultimately Carlton picking up Cameron Wood and keeping Scotland on as rookies has probably elevated their average age and experience profile up a bit, Scotland being 33 years old and 264 games and Wood 26 years old and 64 games, if they don't play it pads our their stats artificially by a little.

However, if they drop a midfielder or ruckman that would become a factor in terms of their ability to hold up despite injuries. I mean possibly Scotland coming in to replace an injured Judd is likely going to be a significantly better option than some rookie level kid nobody has every heard of.

Carlton's problem is their list lacks balance, they have a massive wad of mids but are light on for KPP imo, if they had a more balanced list I think they would have been better placed to achieve better results in recent years. With Waite playing 14, 11, 12, 16 and 9 games in the last 5 seasons it probably doesn't fill you with optimism that he is going to play at FF all season. Carlton's reluctance to invest much or trade for good KPPs has hurt them imo. Henderson was a good get but that was really a forced change due to the Fevola implosion. They even passed on McCarthy this year for another midfielder, strange list management but who am I to judge?

 

[Jet86]

Carlton's reluctance to invest much or trade for good KPPs has hurt them imo. Henderson was a good get but that was really a forced change due to the Fevola implosion.

You're forgetting that big Casboult is the saviour for the Carlton faithful

 

[Tas]

You're forgetting that big Casboult is the saviour for the Carlton faithful

Nothing wrong with investing pick 89 into KPF but he has only played 17 games and was obviously a long way back to be a round 5 pick player. I don't have a problem with him but he is probably going to need 4-5 years of experience before he is going to be that 100+ game player you can rely on.

Both Carlton and Freo left their run a bit late to resolve KPF issues, Freo is now rolling the dice with Gumbleton, when you leave the run late the options aren't great, but I think you have to try.

 

[Richo83]

I don't think being aged is as negative as it was in the past, because with free agency you can add in numerous experienced players into your side to replace retirees, if you so desire. Carlton lost Betts, Hampson and Laidler and picked up Docherty, Everitt and Thomas so losing players didn't hurt them.

Ultimately Carlton picking up Cameron Wood and keeping Scotland on as rookies has probably elevated their average age and experience profile up a bit, Scotland being 33 years old and 264 games and Wood 26 years old and 64 games, if they don't play it pads our their stats artificially by a little.

However, if they drop a midfielder or ruckman that would become a factor in terms of their ability to hold up despite injuries. I mean possibly Scotland coming in to replace an injured Judd is likely going to be a significantly better option than some rookie level kid nobody has every heard of.

Carlton's problem is their list lacks balance, they have a massive wad of mids but are light on for KPP imo, if they had a more balanced list I think they would have been better placed to achieve better results in recent years. With Waite playing 14, 11, 12, 16 and 9 games in the last 5 seasons it probably doesn't fill you with optimism that he is going to play at FF all season. Carlton's reluctance to invest much or trade for good KPPs has hurt them imo. Henderson was a good get but that was really a forced change due to the Fevola implosion. They even passed on McCarthy this year for another midfielder, strange list management but who am I to judge?

I understand your point about injuries and free agency, but Carlton's best 22 is not young and you'd think even with Judd's injury (what happens when you rely upon older players) Carlton's list needs to push for the eight given they have a number of key player pushing towards finals. And Waite's unreliability will only increase as he gets older. I would've drafted McCarthy.

 

[Richo83]

Nothing wrong with investing pick 89 into KPF but he has only played 17 games and was obviously a long way back to be a round 5 pick player. I don't have a problem with him but he is probably going to need 4-5 years of experience before he is going to be that 100+ game player you can rely on.

Both Carlton and Freo left their run a bit late to resolve KPF issues, Freo is now rolling the dice with Gumbleton, when you leave the run late the options aren't great, but I think you have to try.

At least Fremantle are making grand finals and winning key finals, and they still have Pavlich. Carlton haven't made a grand final since 1999 and they don't have anyone nearly as good as Pavlich. Admittedly, Fremantle's list is built to win a flag soon, so I do worry if they miss they'll suffer a Footscray/St Kilda like demise.

 

[kranky al]

Go watch round 23 again. We were VERY close to making the finals. a 1 point loss for us and a 1 point win for Carlton cost us a spot.

Yeo yeo yeo yeo

Baby lion yeah come and let us take the piss
Were taking your player and you are gonna get pissed
Lets see that swap of player for picks that you know you should

Shaaaaaaks push him - push him west real good



*apologies to salt 'n' pepa

 

[Tas]

I understand your point about injuries and free agency, but Carlton's best 22 is not young and you'd think even with Judd's injury (what happens when you rely upon older players) Carlton's list needs to push for the eight given they have a number of key player pushing towards finals. And Waite's unreliability will only increase as he gets older. I would've drafted McCarthy.

Judd and Carrazzo are 30 and Simpson is 29, other than that they are not that old.

McLean turns 28 this year, Thomas 27, Murphy 27, Gibbs 25. I think if they can get Yarran (23) and Garlett (25) to play more midfield and less fringe roles forward or back I think they will have an insanely talented core group in the middle for a fair bit of time to come. I don't really rate guys like Armfield, Robinson, Curnow and Lucas that highly but Mick has them playing roles, Mick is very good at getting the best out of players like those.

I can understand why Carlton has gone for more obvious midfield players, while the best 25 is very good I don't think it bats deep in terms of talent, bats deep in terms of endeavour though which is important. There are plenty that can come in and do okay and they will be in the mix again for finals but if you are talking about winning a flag Carlton wouldn't want to be going to the VFL looking for mids to replace any of the best 22. Some clubs have a lot of really talented young mids in the VFL with no real experience but Carlton seems to lack that to me. Lucas turns 23 this year and there are still a lot of question marks over him and prior to the 2013 draft there wasn't really anyone any younger than him that was really a high quality midfielder, to me at least. So I can understand them wanting to add more quality into their side. Not just for now but for the next few years.

The KPP thing is still a problem though, you would think McCarthy was the more obvious need and if he comes on strong there will be the hindsight filled regret, Waite becomes super important, if he can hold up he might buy them enough time to find a decent free agent.

 

[Tas]

At least Fremantle are making grand finals and winning key finals, and they still have Pavlich. Carlton haven't made a grand final since 1999 and they don't have anyone nearly as good as Pavlich. Admittedly, Fremantle's list is built to win a flag soon, so I do worry if they miss they'll suffer a Footscray/St Kilda like demise.

I don't think Fremante's list is necessarily stronger than Carlton's in terms of talent. I think Ross Lyon football is a lot easier to pull off without stars all over the park. I wouldn't be surprised if Carlton was a top 4 team with Ross Lyon coaching them for a while, however, Ross Lyon footy doesn't necessarily work if everyone is playing the same kind of footy, I think the main strength of Freo and Sydney is that so few teams play footy that way.

I think if clubs in general revert to more defensive football than that is going to naturally make Freo and Swans weaker, the main benefit of being the one that defends and congests is that you are dictating terms, terms which are often foreign to the opposition.

 

[38Rockliff38]

Yeo yeo yeo yeo

Baby lion yeah come and let us take the piss
Were taking your player and you are gonna get pissed
Lets see that swap of player for picks that you know you should

Shaaaaaaks push him - push him west real good



*apologies to salt 'n' pepa

Pretty sure we got Lewis Taylor with the pick we received from you. I'm happy with that

 

[Quinz]

I don't think Fremante's list is necessarily stronger than Carlton's in terms of talent. I think Ross Lyon football is a lot easier to pull off without stars all over the park. I wouldn't be surprised if Carlton was a top 4 team with Ross Lyon coaching them for a while, however, Ross Lyon footy doesn't necessarily work if everyone is playing the same kind of footy, I think the main strength of Freo and Sydney is that so few teams play footy that way.

I think if clubs in general revert to more defensive football than that is going to naturally make Freo and Swans weaker, the main benefit of being the one that defends and congests is that you are dictating terms, terms which are often foreign to the opposition.

Will wait and see what impact the interchange cap has on the manic pressure game style too. Could prove a lot harder to maintain for a whole match.

 

[Silvagnis]

I understand your point about injuries and free agency, but Carlton's best 22 is not young and you'd think even with Judd's injury (what happens when you rely upon older players) Carlton's list needs to push for the eight given they have a number of key player pushing towards finals. And Waite's unreliability will only increase as he gets older. I would've drafted McCarthy.

Mick described Cripps as best 22 on talent. Heard the same argument about Menzel because he isn't a tall like Jaksch. Wouldn't change that in light of what Menzel showed last year.

Henderson was a good get but that was really a forced change due to the Fevola implosion.

I guess the Bombers and North ignore Daniher and McDonald who were free kicks via the F/S rule?

Poor list management to ask your recruiters to overlook the best available player and reach for need. You could mount a case that Richmond overlooked a quality KPP or third tall prospect to take another mid in Vlastuin, Conca or Lennon. Tigers might be a better side with Jaksch, Tom Lynch or McCarthy.

 

[Richo83]

Judd and Carrazzo are 30 and Simpson is 29, other than that they are not that old.

McLean turns 28 this year, Thomas 27, Murphy 27, Gibbs 25. I think if they can get Yarran (23) and Garlett (25) to play more midfield and less fringe roles forward or back I think they will have an insanely talented core group in the middle for a fair bit of time to come. I don't really rate guys like Armfield, Robinson, Curnow and Lucas that highly but Mick has them playing roles, Mick is very good at getting the best out of players like those.

Waite is 31, and most teams aren't stacked with players about to retire. My point is that of all the teams, Carlton is one of those clubs who really can't miss finals given how many players they have who are around 30 or just about, the quality of their best 22, and the fact that Malthouse probably wants to see Carlton improve quickly.

 

[Richo83]

Mick described Cripps as best 22 on talent. Heard the same argument about Menzel because he isn't a tall like Jaksch. Wouldn't change that in light of what Menzel showed last year.

Menzel is a better talent than Cripps. The one you really stuffed up is Lucas instead of Talia.

Poor list management to ask your recruiters to overlook the best available player and reach for need. You could mount a case that Richmond overlooked a quality KPP or third tall prospect to take another mid in Vlastuin, Conca or Lennon. Tigers might be a better side with Jaksch, Tom Lynch or McCarthy.

Richmond had Riewoldt and Vickery, two first round picks, so they didn't need to continue to draft talls. And Lennon was seen as best available and is seen as filling a need, which is the medium forward role. I doubt guys like McCarthy or Jaksch would make Richmond a better side above Lennon or Vlastuin, but they sure would help a side which many blues fans think will put it's CHB at CHF and use a 21 year old as their CHB.