The Official Run Home/Can We Make the Finals Thread

[jarmanagic]

We could also make the finals if Sydney lose remaining 2 and we win all 3 games. Sydney could yet drop out

or if Port lose remaining three and we make up the % gap (likely if we win last 3, they lose last 3)

By my calculations if we win our last 3 we would miss out only if all of this happens

St Kilda to win last 2
Collingwood to beat Sydney R 21
Sydney beat Hawthorn R 22
Port win at least 1 more game
Kangaroos win at least 1 more game

Surely that can't all hapen?

Then again everything else has gone wrong in 07, why not?

 

[AC07]

or if Port lose remaining three and we make up the % gap (likely if we win last 3, they lose last 3)

By my calculations if we win our last 3 we would miss out only if all of this happens

St Kilda to win last 2
Collingwood to beat Sydney R 21
Sydney beat Hawthorn R 22
Port win at least 1 more game
Kangaroos win at least 1 more game

Surely that can't all hapen?

Then again everything else has gone wrong in 07, why not?

and if Port get smashed every game from here and we lose to Brisbane it is possible for both Port and Adelaide to be knocked out. Very unlikely though. Just gonna focus on the Crows I reckon. Time to fire up lads.

 

[jenny61_99]

I don't think we should be worried about what other results can and cannot happen - we only need to focus on winning the last three. Without that, we are gone anyways, so nothing else really matters. Our fate (as is always the case) is in our own hands.

 

[- PC -]

Correct Jen

 

[crow87]

Abosolutely correct, we're also fortunate that we're playing sides we're competing for a spot in the finals with (ie we dont have to rely on someone else beating them)-gives us even more control over how we finish this year. Bottom line is just keep winning, the rest will take care of itself.

 

[Stiffy_18]

I don't think we should be worried about what other results can and cannot happen - we only need to focus on winning the last three. Without that, we are gone anyways, so nothing else really matters. Our fate (as is always the case) is in our own hands.

Our fate is not in our own hands.

If we win all of our 3 remaining games and St. Kilda win their 2 remaining games we are out of the finals.

Which ever way you look at it, we are relying on other results to get us there. We are a mathematical chance but only if other results go our way.

 

[jenny61_99]

Our fate is not in our own hands.

If we win all of our 3 remaining games and St. Kilda win their 2 remaining games we are out of the finals.

Which ever way you look at it, we are relying on other results to get us there. We are a mathematical chance but only if other results go our way.

Fair call Stiffy, but we have absolutely no control over what happens in other games (unless we pay off an umpire or two ) so really, we just need to focus on OUR job at hand - and that is WINNING!

 

[AC07]

Fair call Stiffy, but we have absolutely no control over what happens in other games (unless we pay off an umpire or two ) so really, we just need to focus on OUR job at hand - and that is WINNING!

I am sure Neil and the boys are doing that. No harm in us supporters discussing it though. What we discuss will not effect any results.

 

[CrowHop]

I would be absoluely amazed if we made the finals given our situation. History says when you need other results to go your way, then your chances are very slim.

I'd be that the Saints will get in to 8th spot but you never know.

 

[DaveW]

Friday night is huge.

If St Kilda lose to West Coast then the winner of Adelaide and Brisbane will move to 8th spot after 21 rounds.

If St Kilda win, then they're probably safe - they play Richmond in the last round.

But even if St Kilda win both their games then all is not lost. We can still overtake Collingwood provided they lose to Sydney. Alternatively, if Sydney lose to Collingwood, we'd require the Swans to lose again to Hawthorn in Round 22.

In a nutshell...
Plan A: take St Kilda's spot
Plan B1: take Collingwood's spot
Plan B2: take Sydney's spot



And for the real wishful thinkers...

Mathematically, we can still make 5th or 6th and attain a home final. But it's a real longshot at this stage. Let's review that one in a week's time.

 

[bus24]

Well its about time West Coast did something for us. We've given them a dream run into 2 grand finals, time to start repaying us

 

[DaveW]

Alternatively, if Sydney lose to Collingwood, we'd require the Swans to lose again to Hawthorn in Round 22.

Come to think of it, if the Hawks lose to the Dogs in R21, then it won't matter which of Sydney and Hawthorn loses in R22.

Plan B2b: take Hawthorn's spot.

 

[edgar_davids]

Re: Teams 8th-13th - the run home

well, I would say 2 TOP 8 spots could be available after this w/end. If Collingwood lose this w/end to Sydney, and Adelaide beat Brisbane, the winner between Collingwood v Adelaide goes through, leaving one of those teams out. Kangaroos and Hawthorn could drop places majorly if they are not careful, Hawthorn have a tough run home.

4 HAW 20 114 48
5 KAN 20 102 48
6 COL 20 101 48
7 SYD 20 119 46
8 STK 20 96 42
9 BL 20 110 40
10 ADE 20 108 40
11 ESS 20 92 40
12 WBD 20 90 38

important games this w/end;

St. Kilda v West Coast (Telstra Dome) 7:40pm
Collingwood v Sydney (MCG) 7:10pm
Adelaide v Brisbane Lions (AAMI) 7:40pm
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn (Telstra Dome) 1:10pm
Essendon v Richmond (MCG) 5:10pm

 

[maccas_no1]

Re: Teams 8th-13th - the run home

Would rather it be a bit more convincing win. Don't think I can put up with another close game after the St. Kilda game. Would much rather just smash the Pies. I'll still go nuts.

It will be heart renching stuff against Collingwood, the game and what is on the line should be enough to ignite a huge fire in our boys hearts, win against Collingwood and I will fire you all up next week

 

[relapse]

Re: Teams 8th-13th - the run home

I reckon we should add Collingwood to list. 2 games ahead of Adelaide but with inferior percentage and playing Adelaide in a potential '8 point' game in round 22.

They are in poor form and coming up against a Melbourne who will be confident of causing an upset after their performance last week, then they face a tough assignment (in Melbourne of course) against Sydney who i reckon will probably smash them in tight.

Therefore, they are big chance of losing all 3 matches, if not at least 2.

That's a very good point, if they (collingwood) lose against Sydney this week and we beat Brisbane. Its possible that collingwood can miss the finals if we beat them and the saints continue to win.

 

[RealSlimShady]

Re: Teams 8th-13th - the run home

Here are the teams from position 8 to 13, fighting for the last spot in the 8...

Brisbane (8th)
v Sydney (H), Adelaide (A), Geelong (H)

Saint Kilda (9th)
v Fremantle (H), West Coast (H), Richmond (A)

Western Bulldogs (10th)
v Adelaide (A), Hawthorn (A), Kangaroos (H)

Adelaide (11th)
v Western Bulldogs (H), Brisbane (H), Collingwood (A)

Fremantle (12th)
v Saint Kilda (A), Melbourne (H), Port Adelaide (A)

Essendon (13th)
v Carlton (H), Richmond (H), West Coast (A)

I was mucking about with the ladder predictor and I pretty much came to the conclusion that we have to beat Brisbane. We can lose to the pies in the last round and get in based on other results but lose to Brisbane and the door is pretty much shut.

 

[lunacy]

No certainty for 8 even if win both games

If Adelaide win the two remaining games it will put us on 48 points and about 108%.

Brisbane won't make it if we beat them this week.

If St Kilda win both games they'll stay 2 points above us. We need them to lose to WC at dome this week, but no Kerr and probably no Judd and Cousins. Not looking good.

Sydney are six points ahead of us. They play Collingwood at MCG this week. Even if they lose to Collingwood they then play Hawthorn at SCG the following week and will probably win that. If they win that they'll stay clear above us on points.

Collingwood are 2 games (8 points) clear of us but have a worse percentage. We need Collingwood to lose this week to Sydney at MCG and then lose to us the following week. We would them jump above them on percentage.

The only other spot is Kangaroos losing both games to Carlton and Bulldogs at the dome. That won't happen.

So even if we win both games we need other results to go our way. If we can beat Brisbane this week, we can eliminate them from September. But we need St Kilda to lose to WC this week and/or Collingwood to lose to Sydney this week. This is a very important round. The St Kilda v WCE game and the Collingwood v Sydney are just as important as our game.

 

[jackster83]

Re: No certainty for 8 even if win both games

so assuming we win both games then to make the finals, we need 1 of either:
(1) St Kilda to lose to either WC or Richmond
(2) Collingwood to lose both remaining games to Sydney and us
(3) Sydney to lose both remaining games to Hawthorn and Collingwood
(4) Kangaroos to lose both remaining games to Carlton and WB
(5) Hawks to lose both remaining games by big margains to WB and Sydney

I think scenario number 2 would have to be the most likely - and the most satisfying too!

 

[-VC-]

Re: No certainty for 8 even if win both games

If we win both of our games it would be a remarkable set of circumstances to keep us out - as evidenced by these first two posts!

I imagine that one of the three scenarios outlined (I don't really count the Hawks or Kangaroos because they are so unlikely) will happen whether or not we win both of our games.

 

[fryingpan]

Re: No certainty for 8 even if win both games

If St Kilda win both games they'll stay 2 points above us. We need them to lose to WC at dome this week, but no Kerr and probably no Judd and Cousins. Not looking good.

Uh... Where'd you get that from? Judd and Cousins both made the flight which suggests they are more than likely to play.

Basically, all we need is WCE to win and us to win. That way, next week we don't have to rely on other teams losing for us to make it, WE can make it by beating Collingwood and to be honest I think that's the most likely scenerio at this stage.

 

[CrowMagnum]

Re: No certainty for 8 even if win both games

Uh... Where'd you get that from? Judd and Cousins both made the flight which suggests they are more than likely to play.

Basically, all we need is WCE to win and us to win. That way, next week we don't have to rely on other teams losing for us to make it, WE can make it by beating Collingwood and to be honest I think that's the most likely scenerio at this stage.

They made the flight but are no certainties.

The injury curse strikes again. Even other team's injuries are hurting us! Why couldn't Kerr rupture his bloody finger next week

 

[maccas_no1]

Re: No certainty for 8 even if win both games

They made the flight but are no certainties.

The injury curse strikes again. Even other team's injuries are hurting us! Why couldn't Kerr rupture his bloody finger next week

St Kilda have problems Harvey out Hudgston out Baker out.

 

[KUNG FU]

Re: No certainty for 8 even if win both games

I think the Saints are on fire. I can't see them losing to WCE or Richmond.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Re: No certainty for 8 even if win both games

I think the Saints are on fire. I can't see them losing to WCE or Richmond.

I actually think Swans will beat Collingwood (maybe my heart rather than head thinks that) but the Saints v Eagles clash shapes as a real 50:50.

With injury clouds over the WC midfield, it lessens the gap there despite Harvey's absence.

Darren Glass was uncharacteristically poor last week (no shame against Richo i guess) so I'd be predicting he will bounce back and keep the second best G-Train in the league to far less than he kicked last week. So, i'd be surprised if the Saints kick a big score.

Problem is West Coast away from home probably wont kick a huge score either. Having said that, the Saints defence is average at best, so for the first time i'll be hoping the Big Q will kick a bag, with LeCras in support to give us a shot at the finals!

West Coast to win in a close, low-scoring affair

AND Swans to beat Pies by 30+

 

[Punchy Bassett]

Re: No certainty for 8 even if win both games

so assuming we win both games then to make the finals, we need 1 of either:
(1) St Kilda to lose to either WC or Richmond
(2) Collingwood to lose both remaining games to Sydney and us
(3) Sydney to lose both remaining games to Hawthorn and Collingwood
(4) Kangaroos to lose both remaining games to Carlton and WB
(5) Hawks to lose both remaining games by big margains to WB and Sydney

I think scenario number 2 would have to be the most likely - and the most satisfying too!

If it comes down to a straight fight in our last game between us and the Pies to see who gets in get ready for the biggest ass raping of the century.