Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[BrainOfMorbius]

That's not going to happen

Oh you don't say

 

[Present Not Past]

Carlton building for the long term - sometime in the future.

 

[Neese]

Oh you don't say

I mean that this has become one of many threads in which to sink the boots into Carlton.
We should be celebrating Brisbane imo
Carlton will be fine.

 

[scoman]

Good to know that this thread will be decided one way or the other next week and we can put it to bed

Imagine if Brisbane lose.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Imagine if Brisbane lose.

As I say, it will be decided

 

[Nimble Numbat]

Our list profile is still super young but our 22 probably isn’t these days. We have a heap of players from the last 2 drafts that are yet to debut given our very good injury list.

That’s a very good point. I’ll have a play around with my code and see if I can get any interesting plots.

 

[cotter101]

I’m actually worried about dropping the Carlton game right before the bye. Tracking similar to us last year I feel.

Generally competitive, a flogging or two but a few wins will come heading into this second half of the season.

 

[Checkered]

Carlton game is a genuine 50/50 next week I reckon. They'll be up and about for it.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Carlton game is a genuine 50/50 next week I reckon. They'll be up and about for it.

Hmm maybe, but I reckon this Essendon game today is the one they have probably set themselves for mentally. Hopefully they are spent after today.

 

[Tom14]

That’s a very good point. I’ll have a play around with my code and see if I can get any interesting plots.

I'm solely going by the 'Inexperience Watch' thread on our board but our average age of our selected 22 this year has hovered around 25/26. Obviously Hodge does skew the average by both games and age but it is a reasonable indication that we have largely been selecting mostly more experienced players on our list.

This is partially by design though - we've brought in quite a few experienced players in the right age brackets to protect the kids. Carlton hasn't had as much success with mature recruits or injury so based on an initial impression their kids have been more exposed.

 

[Fadge]

Given all this talk of statistics I thought it might be helpful to make some plots. I've always found it easier to get a grip on things by looking at pictures rather than numbers.

Here's a histogram of the number of games played by Brisbane and Carlton. Data is taken from listed senior players on each clubs website (e.g. for Brisbane).

A note on the histogram for those who aren't familiar with them: it splits the number of games played up into groups and then counts how many players fall into that group. E.g. for Brisbane the number of players who have played 0-20 games is 14.

View attachment 684953

Nice graph, but we've been told by all the Carlton posters that median age is the only metric we need to know about...

 

[Checkered]

Hmm maybe, but I reckon this Essendon game today is the one they have probably set themselves for mentally. Hopefully they are spent after today.

Yeah that's valid. I'm tipping them today.

 

[Nimble Numbat]

Given all this talk of statistics I thought it might be helpful to make some plots. I've always found it easier to get a grip on things by looking at pictures rather than numbers.

Here's a histogram of the number of games played by Brisbane and Carlton. Data is taken from listed senior players on each clubs website (e.g. for Brisbane).

A note on the histogram for those who aren't familiar with them: it splits the number of games played up into groups and then counts how many players fall into that group. E.g. for Brisbane the number of players who have played 0-20 games is 14.

View attachment 684953

Here's a plot showing player age as well.

I don't think games played or age are the be all and end all for how a club is progressing (or regressing) - it'll be a combination of these and several other factors, but for now these age / games plots are interesting to look at. Maybe some measure of how many games a player had played relative to their age and incorporating player rankings / supercoach points or something, but that'll get very complicated very fast.

Again, note that these are not best 22 players, but all senior listed players from each clubs website (45 players).

 

[Great8]

Lions are tracking very nicely and Carlton are tracking the other way. I have the Lions as finals certainties at this stage and they will absolutely pummel Carlton next week

 

[Dede]

Fun fact ex Carlton players kicked more goals then the actual Carlton team on the weekend .

 

[jackess]

Looks like Carlton's rebuild is actually going to start October 2019

 

[ManOfClay]

Looks like Carlton's rebuild is actually going to start October 2019

But they will always argue about that. Claim certain dates to show “see we are tracking along like xx”

In actuality no two rebuilds are the same, fortunately for most teams they don’t rebuild like Carlton

 

[Checkered]

So does tomorrow mark the third 'Day 1' of this rebuild?

 

[BRAB]

Sad to think that bolton would have survived if the Carlton board had just considered the median instead of the mean

 

[Elixuh]

Sad to think that bolton would have survived if the Carlton board had just considered the median instead of the mean

Brab pls.

 

[Chris Fagan]

Sad to think that bolton would have survived if the Carlton board had just considered the median instead of the mean

I for one would like to hear about the mode of Carlton's list before making any decisions.

 

[ManOfClay]

I don’t understand mathematics but this is bad news for Bolton

 

[BlueJet]

Disappointed to see it all pan out this way.
The club has to get this next hiring correct..

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Viceregal]

Disappointed to see it all pan out this way.
The club has to get this next hiring correct..

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Do you think the next coach has a chance/ what needs to change to make a success of it or is it a poisoned chalice?

 

[Hollow Knight]

I for one would like to hear about the mode of Carlton's list before making any decisions.

Box and whisker plot or GTFO!