Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[vicpride]

How many 4th year KPP are elite? Andrews is probably an outlier there, credit to the lions. Weitering is coming on perfectly fine IMO and has been one of our better performers this year (with no Newman, Simpson, Docherty and Jones for big chunks of the season). Curnow has been a worry this year but 10 games ago he was well on his way. I notice you didn’t mention McKay who is tracking perfectly.

And again with the mids, SPS and Dow in particular are not elite yet but what 20 year olds are? McCluggage looks brilliant but he has Neale, Robinson, Zorko and Lyons along side him.

People forget how young these guys are and what they are being asked to do. Maybe that’s a knock on SOS’ recruiting but I’m still of the belief that by 2021/22 whoever has our list will be in a great position.

Weitering was beat 3 or 4 times one out by Membery on Sunday. He's got no intensity at all. Ben Brown got a hold of Carlton too this year. I'm yet to see him becoming anything near elite.

Dow looks amazing and I think he'll be a star. Curnow has regressed to the point that he's kicked how many goals this year? And don't even get started on the 800,000 He's on that he's spending around town on all sorts of activities. Too much for nothing.

SPS avoids contact at all costs and you can say third year in but I can't see anything above a good league footballer atm. Dime in a dozen.

I keep hearing great kids amazing talent. No young defensive runners, no rucks coming through, not one crafty small forward, and a midfield so thin one win for the season is being defended. I can't see it I just can't I'm not seeing it come on.

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[TheShardMan]

Progression is slower than we think...

Some simple comparisons, though, using what I would consider key stats for each player:

SPS: 2017 - 14 disposals, 0.5 goals, 4.2 tackles. 2018 - 16 disposals, 0,2 goals, 4.1 tackles. 2019 - 20 disposals, 0.3 goals, 4.4 tackles
He's improved incrementally each year, and had one dominant / breakout game this year. Going ok.


Weitering: 2016 - 14.5 disposals, 3.5 1%ers, 5.5 intercepts. 2017 - 13.7 disposals, 3.6 1%ers, 4.3 intercepts. 2018 (only 14 games) - 13.5 disposals, 4.9 1%ers, 4.3 intercepts. 2019 - 14 disposals, 6.8 1%ers, 7.7 intercepts
Struggled in year 2 and 3 after being played forward, and then with injury last year. This year, big jump in defensive stats and is 12th in the league in intercept possessions - having a really good year (although poor the last 3 weeks).

Plowman: 2016 - 12 disposals, 5 one-percenters, 3.7 intercepts. 2017 - 14.3 disposals, 4.1 one-percenters, 5.3 intercepts. 2018 (injury affected) - 11.9 disposals, 5.7 one-percenters, 4.5 intercepts. 2019 - 16.2 disposals, 4.7 one-percenters, 6.6 intercepts
Dipped last year, but otherwise consistent improvement. 2019 is his best year for disposals and intercepts.

Dow: 2018: 14.2 disposals, 3.2 tackles, 67% DE. 2019: 17.1 disposals, 2.7 tackles, 64% DE.
Has improved his output, tackling has dropped, and disposal still an issue. From observation, his disposal has been improving over the course of this season, but yet to show through in the stats

O'Brien: 2018: 13.9 disposals, 1.4 tackles, 0.1 goals. 2019: 10.3 disposals, 1.2 tackles, 0.5 goals.
Has moved up the ground more. Can't find the football, but has at least hit the scoreboard. Hasn't improved overall

Marchbank: Was better across the board (all relevant stats categories) in 2017. Can't be bothered typing it out, but he was good then, had a terrible run with injury last year, and has been less good this year. Hasn't improved

Kennedy/Setterfield - both haven't played enough games to track. Setterfield - there's no baseline and he is coming off an ACL. Hard to judge. Kennedy - only 1 game this year and it was on Sunday. Not improving as we would like, though.

Fisher - 2017: 11.8 disposals, 2.9 tackles, 0.2 goals. 2018: 19.2 disposals, 3.5 tackles, 0.5 goals. 2019: 20.9 disposals, 3.3 tackles 0.5 goals
Made a big jump last year, and probably slightly better this year.

Charlie Curnow - Made a big jump last year, his numbers this year are back to 2017 levels. Has been out of form and injured this year.

Some others:
Harry McKay: Made a big jump last year. Believe it or not, his disposal, goal, tackle and mark numbers are basically identical to 2018. Has taken a lot of contested marks but I'm suspicious about those stats (I think he gets paid 'CM' for marks that other players don't due to technique when marking on the lead). Probably fair to say incremental improvement is occurring, though.
Jack Silvagni: In 2019 has career highs in goals, disposals, marks and tackles. Has got better each year (still only 21)
David Cuningham: In 2019 has career highs in goals, disposals, and a big jump in some peripheral stats like I50s. Consistent in tackles. Just turned 22, and this year's numbers are despite some bad injury luck (a ruptured Kidney).

So overall:
Improving ok - Weitering, SPS, Plowman, Dow, Fisher, Silvagni, Cuningham, McKay
Have improved, but out of form/bad year: Charlie Curnow,
Not good, but not necessarily bad: Kennedy, Setterfield, and a couple of others not mentioned due to injury (De Koning,
Not improving as hoped: Marchbank, O'Brien,

Every one of those players except Plowman is still under 23. The only worry I'd have is Marchbank - who looked a few years ago like being a star, and now seems just an ordinary defender. Probably 2/3 of those young blokes are tracking well though, another couple having injury issues, and a couple not going as hoped. Seems about right to me. The problem is that the team has got younger each year, so more is expected of players who haven't hit their primes yet.

appreciate ur reply. my family were big blues supporters b4 the afl so i do want to see them do well. I dont doubt theres been improvement. They are more competitive this year. but other clubs have improved a hell of a lot more. it really is disappointing that the suns have 2 more wins and even the saints with their injuries have 5. from what we have seen so far i think u guys have set a unrealistic expectation of those kids. just cant see them being the saviours u all desperately hope for. all we've seen so far are a bunch of kids on track to be slightly above average.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Weitering was beat 3 or 4 times one out by Membery on Sunday. He's got no intensity at all. Ben Brown got a hold of Carlton too this year. I'm yet to see him becoming anything near elite.

Dow looks amazing and I think he'll be a star. Curnow has regressed to the point that he's kicked how many goals this year? And don't even get started on the 800,000 He's on that he's spending around town on all sorts of activities. Too much for nothing.

SPS avoids contact at all costs and you can say third year in but I can't see anything above a good league footballer atm. Dime in a dozen.

I keep hearing great kids amazing talent. No young defensive runners, no rucks coming through, not one crafty small forward, and a midfield so thin one win for the season is being defended. I can't see it I just can't I'm not seeing it come on.

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Fair enough. I guess you don’t see Logue, Cerra or Brayshaw making it either. Not starring at 20 years old.

 

[SickQwon]

No they didn't. Carlton played 12 players aged 18-22 (including 3 teenagers). The Saints played 4 players aged 18-22 (and no teenagers).

The Saints had conditioned senior bodies. We were a squad comprised of mostly kids drafted in the past 3 years.

That's why median age and games matter. Kade Simpson and Daisy Thomas leading a squad of teenagers is not the same as a team of mostly 23-28 year olds.

If you cant see why, you dont understand football.

Your effort is appreciated but unfortunately its wasted on a poster who rejects basic maths and partially the english language just to have a dig at Carlton.

 

[Monkey King]

Median doesn’t afford any special additional value.

The median is limited, as is the mean by itself. Imagine you’re planning to fund services and infrastructure for a population with a mean age of 40yo. Do you really think that statistic alone tells you the age of the population?

Carlton had 12 players who’d make the U22 team, Saints had 4. Carlton had 3 teenagers, the Saints had zero. The distribution alone tells the picture.

 

[La Dispute]

Yeh I find it weird Dow cops all this criticism, yet Andy Brayshaw, who has looked incredibly vanilla, hasn’t copped any.

Don’t think the moderngame is particularly suited to smaller outside players without any discernible point of difference, and he came in being reasonably readymade (big endurance base) despite needing to put on some size.

 

[MightyTiger]

To all Carlton supporters arguing over mathematics as to why your team isn't as shit as the AFL world thinks it is.

 

[Leeda]

Your effort is appreciated but unfortunately its wasted on a poster who rejects basic maths and partially the english language just to have a dig at Carlton.

snore dude...too cool 4 school. ?dang legends

 

[LFTWNG11]

To all Carlton supporters arguing over mathematics as to why your team isn't as **** as the AFL world thinks it is.

Mate, it’s all we have at the moment!!

You do realise there is a whole bunch of non-Carlton supporters arguing about mathematics as well? They should stick to rolling on Bolton, SOS and the young players, at least then they have a point.

 

[MightyTiger]

Mate, it’s all we have at the moment!!

You do realise there is a whole bunch of non-Carlton supporters arguing about mathematics as well? They should stick to rolling on Bolton, SOS and the young players, at least then they have a point.

And all arguments end up at the same point, which is that Carlton is garbage.

Carlton as a football club need to put wins on the board, no club can justify to there supporters 4 wins from the past 40+ games.

 

[doppleganger]

Good teams are built on the 23-29 demographic, with a good spread either side. The median is much more relevant than the average.

No it ain’t.

Mean and median in isolation don’t provide much relevant information at all.

The median doesn’t tell you anything about how many players a team has in whatever you deem to be the key demographic, and says nothing about the spread.

 

[doppleganger]

The median is limited, as is the mean by itself. Imagine you’re planning to fund services and infrastructure for a population with a mean age of 40yo. Do you really think that statistic alone tells you the age of the population?

Of course not, as we all have been informed - Mean data is rejected by every scientist and engineer.

Supposedly the Median is all that planner needed, if you knew the median age was 40 then you are sorted.

Carlton had 12 players who’d make the U22 team, Saints had 4. Carlton had 3 teenagers, the Saints had zero. The distribution alone tells the picture.

Yeah I know, Marcel’s original post that lined up each player side by side told the story...before a couple of Carlton dribblers started drivelling about medians.

Is age or actual games played more important?

Gresham has played 72 games, R.Young was playing game number 2.

In terms of AFL experience I consider Young to be the inexperienced raw player.

It was the Saints who played guys who lacked AFL experience, as detailed by the player v player comparison.

 

[Rich01]

And again with the mids, SPS and Dow in particular are not elite yet but what 20 year olds are? McCluggage looks brilliant but he has Neale, Robinson, Zorko and Lyons along side him.

McLuggage is brilliant because he has midfield talent around him but SPS and Dow get a pass because they don’t? Weird logic considering how Walsh is performing in that midfield.

SPS can’t impact games and Dow should probably be playing VFL at the moment. Carlton fans should expect more from top five draft picks.

With Cripps and top ten draft picks Walsh, LOB, Dow, SPS, Kennedy, Setterfield, Carlton on paper have a very potent future midfield.

But there’s big question marks on all the above except Walsh, who has surpassed them all in his first season.

 

[CrowInFiji]

Can all the trolls get back under their bridges please.

A fool could see that this year's 1-9 Carlton are better than last year's 1-9Carlton.

And no it's not about wins and losses it's about the future. Carlton don't want the first pick so who cares? Stocker +1, maybe some more experience watch out 2020.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

McLuggage is brilliant because he has midfield talent around him but SPS and Dow get a pass because they don’t? Weird logic considering how Walsh is performing in that midfield.

SPS can’t impact games and Dow should probably be playing VFL at the moment. Carlton fans should expect more from top five draft picks.

With Cripps and top ten draft picks Walsh, LOB, Dow, SPS, Kennedy, Setterfield, Carlton on paper have a very potent future midfield.

But there’s big question marks on all the above except Walsh, who has surpassed them all in his first season.

McCluggage is brilliant because he is a brilliant player, sorry if that read the wrong way. My point was I can assure you SPS and Dow would look much better in a side with some decent big bodies and protection, and until they get their own AFL ready bodies they will struggle carrying the load. Walsh seems to be an outlier.

Dow should be playing at VFL level to develop his game but we don’t have that luxury. Instead we are developing him at AFL level and his mistakes are amplified. I don’t think that makes him any less talented. Only a second year player. 19 . . .

 

[a mayes ing]

Can all the trolls get back under their bridges please.

A fool could see that this year's 1-9 Carlton are better than last year's 1-9Carlton.

And no it's not about wins and losses it's about the future. Carlton don't want the first pick so who cares? Stocker +1, maybe some more experience watch out 2020.

Of course they would want the first pick. They traded it away last season because they thought that they would do better on the ladder. If they knew they were going to get the spoon and ergo the best kid in the draft then they definitly wouldnt have traded it

 

[Monkey King]

Of course not, as we all have been informed - Mean data is rejected by every scientist and engineer.

I’m not sure what you’re trying to say here. The mean of a sample tells you something about the sample, but as the town planning example shows, it’s a limited statistic. If comparing the means of two groups, as you did with ages, there are computational methods that require calculating variance. Scientists and engineers know this.

Is age or actual games played more important?

That’s kind of a gi-go question, but my answer would be that age below that of physical maturity is generally the most influential factor on performance.

A more detailed answer would involve the ranges where factors like age, games played, preseasons under the belt, years in the system, come into play, both between certain cohorts and within them.

 

[Tom14]

Of course they would want the first pick. They traded it away last season because they thought that they would do better on the ladder. If they knew they were going to get the spoon and ergo the best kid in the draft then they definitly wouldnt have traded it

Also the argument I've seen from some that it doesn't matter because the plan would have been to trade away this year's first anyway doesn't make any sense. Even if you don't plan to pick at pick 1 there is enormous trade value for it.

You can get a hell of a lot more for Pick 1, either by exchanging for a quality player and a pick (e.g. pick 1 for A grade player plus a mid-late first round pick) or you can trade down like we did in 2016 (went from pick 2 to pick 3 and got a pick in the teens that turned into Jarrod Berry). They could probably have ended up with a pick around the Crows 1st round pick (which is all they have this year) and still have a top 6-8 selection through trading down from pick 1.

The justification for the trade unfortunately solely rests on Carlton's evaluation that Stocker was a top 10 talent in last years draft. If he turns into a star then the trade doesn't matter, but given that most other clubs didn't see him that way that is a hell of a risk to take based solely on confidence in your own evaluation. Given all the evidence that recruiters mis-evaluate all the time its not a particularly good bet to make.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Weitering was beat 3 or 4 times one out by Membery on Sunday. He's got no intensity at all. Ben Brown got a hold of Carlton too this year. I'm yet to see him becoming anything near elite.

Dow looks amazing and I think he'll be a star. Curnow has regressed to the point that he's kicked how many goals this year? And don't even get started on the 800,000 He's on that he's spending around town on all sorts of activities. Too much for nothing.

SPS avoids contact at all costs and you can say third year in but I can't see anything above a good league footballer atm. Dime in a dozen.

I keep hearing great kids amazing talent. No young defensive runners, no rucks coming through, not one crafty small forward, and a midfield so thin one win for the season is being defended. I can't see it I just can't I'm not seeing it come on.

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Membrey always get a hold of Weitering. Kicked 5 or 6 on him the first time. Not sure why we ever let that match up happen. Agree that intensity / losing focus can be an issue of his - part of the reason why quick leading forwards beat him

 

[Nimble Numbat]

Given all this talk of statistics I thought it might be helpful to make some plots. I've always found it easier to get a grip on things by looking at pictures rather than numbers.

Here's a histogram of the number of games played by Brisbane and Carlton. Data is taken from listed senior players on each clubs website (e.g. for Brisbane).

A note on the histogram for those who aren't familiar with them: it splits the number of games played up into groups and then counts how many players fall into that group. E.g. for Brisbane the number of players who have played 0-20 games is 14.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

With Carlton having more number one picks than MJ & the Beatles together the last 15 years its funny how Brisbane's list is already 10 years ahead of them. Hilarious!

 

[Tom14]

Given all this talk of statistics I thought it might be helpful to make some plots. I've always found it easier to get a grip on things by looking at pictures rather than numbers.

Here's a histogram of the number of games played by Brisbane and Carlton. Data is taken from listed senior players on each clubs website (e.g. for Brisbane).

A note on the histogram for those who aren't familiar with them: it splits the number of games played up into groups and then counts how many players fall into that group. E.g. for Brisbane the number of players who have played 0-20 games is 14.

View attachment 684953

Our list profile is still super young but our 22 probably isn’t these days. We have a heap of players from the last 2 drafts that are yet to debut given our very good injury list.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Good to know that this thread will be decided one way or the other next week and we can put it to bed

 

[Neese]

Good to know that this thread will be decided one way or the other next week and we can put it to bed

That's not going to happen

Enjoying watching Brisbane play.
Carlton will click together soon and another preseason with Andrew Russell working on our fitness will see us improve and gel better. Good times are coming

 

[DirtySandman]

Good times are coming

I think Carlton have been able to disprove the old adage, ‘things can only get better’