Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[pulpdriver]

Ahead of the Lions on the rebuild timeline. No excuses for missing finals this year ( unless we have an above average injury list, like any side in our position)

As in started the rebuild earlier or more advanced and closer to a finished build?

 

[Arr0w]

As in started the rebuild earlier or more advanced and closer to a finished build?

Lions started their rebuild end of 2013, finals 2019. Carlton end of 2015, finals 2021 would mirror that timeline

 

[RAPPA]

Has to be finals for the Blues in 2021.
Otherwise the Teague Train should be on the scrap heap alongside Greenshoots Brendan.

A 66 game rebuild becomes a little farcical if a club doesn’t see finals after six seasons.

what do you mean? We are six seasons in to a 66 season rebuild. I have high hopes for 2081

 

[Mr.X]

Win a premiership and then you can gloat. Til then, Brisbane are still 2 years ahead of Carlton. You'd want to win one soon

Not sure the Lions will get a better opportunity than what was available in 2020.

Played most of the season at home, minimal travel and other sides away from their home bases and usual routines.

 

[a mayes ing]

Not sure the Lions will get a better opportunity than what was available in 2020.

Played most of the season at home, minimal travel and other sides away from their home bases and usual routines.

Just because a side plays at home for majority of season doesn't mean they should win the Cup, otherwise Melbourne teams would be winning every season. Sometimes a team is just better. There were only 2 teams better than us and they were Geelong and Richmond (we won but they were w/o Lynch).

 

[Freomaniac]

Why didnt you mention Hawthorn as a finals candidate? Roll the clock forward a year or two - is Geelong the next Hawforn? How far behind are West Coast's geriatrics from teh two above ? Collingwood ex Pendles and Sidebottom in a year or so???

Freo | GWS | Melbourne arent looking do jump over Carlton - they will be looking to beat any side they play - those who played finals in '20 FWTW aren't locks - I reckon the three easier picks for finals next year are Port/Richmond and Brisbane and then St Kilda - the other 4-5 Clubs have a lot of work to do to seperate themselves from each other and the next best three or four.

Roll the clock forward into '22 and it will be more obvious how many '20 finals sides will be on the fast slide down.

Carlton supporters are bullish the next 3-5 years - for good reason - and Melbourne/Freo should be too.

but keep looking backwards if that works for you.

Just My Personal Opinion I think Freo will either finish in a finals spot of 7th or 8th or narrowly miss out and get 9th, 10th or 11th.

Freo could of made finals in 2020. They were closer to 8th than the spoon in 2020. Lost to essendon in docklands by 6 points. Lost to Brisbane in the gabba by 12 points. Lost to Suns in Gold coast by 13 points and lost to Carlton in Perth with a set shot on the siren by under a goal.

GWS made finals in 2016-19 including a grand final in 2019. They didnt make finals in 2020 and look to ounce back and make finals in 2021.

Melbourne is a Strange one. Yes they made finals in 2018 and finished bottom 2 in 2019 with a lot of injuries. Should of made finals in 2017 and 2020 to add an extra final or 2 for expereince. They were likely to make finals in 2020 but had horrible losses to Swans and freo. had they won both, would of easily of played finals last season.

Carlton in the last 2 years, their form is extreme on both ends. Just looking at the 2019 season, they knocked off the Bulldogs and Brisbane who made finals and won against freo in perth. Their 1st half of 2019 was bad which resulted in Bolton getting sacked. When David Teague coached the 2nd half of the 2019 season, they were competitive. Take away the 68 pooint loss to geelong in the last round. their other defeats in the 2nd half of 2019 were not bad. Richmond only beat the tigers by 28 points.

In 2020 Carlton beat 2 top 8 sides were the cats in Geelong and belted the dogs. They also got a few narrow wins too.

Saying that... Carlton have not played finals since 2013. So From 2014-2020, they have spent 7 years of no finals. As I said, if your team is doing a 5 year rebuild, that 1st bunch of 18-21 year olds 5 years down the track are 23-26 year olds with 70-100 games under the belt. Not saying its certain to give you success but there should be some improvements.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Just My Personal Opinion I think Freo will either finish in a finals spot of 7th or 8th or narrowly miss out and get 9th, 10th or 11th.

Freo could of made finals in 2020. They were closer to 8th than the spoon in 2020. Lost to essendon in docklands by 6 points. Lost to Brisbane in the gabba by 12 points. Lost to Suns in Gold coast by 13 points and lost to Carlton in Perth with a set shot on the siren by under a goal.

GWS made finals in 2016-19 including a grand final in 2019. They didnt make finals in 2020 and look to ounce back and make finals in 2021.

Melbourne is a Strange one. Yes they made finals in 2018 and finished bottom 2 in 2019 with a lot of injuries. Should of made finals in 2017 and 2020 to add an extra final or 2 for expereince. They were likely to make finals in 2020 but had horrible losses to Swans and freo. had they won both, would of easily of played finals last season.

Carlton in the last 2 years, their form is extreme on both ends. Just looking at the 2019 season, they knocked off the Bulldogs and Brisbane who made finals and won against freo in perth. Their 1st half of 2019 was bad which resulted in Bolton getting sacked. When David Teague coached the 2nd half of the 2019 season, they were competitive. Take away the 68 pooint loss to geelong in the last round. their other defeats in the 2nd half of 2019 were not bad. Richmond only beat the tigers by 28 points.

In 2020 Carlton beat 2 top 8 sides were the cats in Geelong and belted the dogs. They also got a few narrow wins too.

Saying that... Carlton have not played finals since 2013. So From 2014-2020, they have spent 7 years of no finals. As I said, if your team is doing a 5 year rebuild, that 1st bunch of 18-21 year olds 5 years down the track are 23-26 year olds with 70-100 games under the belt. Not saying its certain to give you success but there should be some improvements.

Carlton need to make finals this year, we aren’t that young any more and we have recruited some mature players to bolster the list. Unless we have a terrible injury run, we need to be making finals. The problem with gutting the list like we ended up having to do is that the players have become accustomed to losing, we have some tremendous young talent on the list but we need to gain confidence and the only way to do that is by winning. I think we will lose Cripps if we don’t make finals.

 

[La Dispute]

Just My Personal Opinion I think Freo will either finish in a finals spot of 7th or 8th or narrowly miss out and get 9th, 10th or 11th.

Freo could of made finals in 2020. They were closer to 8th than the spoon in 2020. Lost to essendon in docklands by 6 points. Lost to Brisbane in the gabba by 12 points. Lost to Suns in Gold coast by 13 points and lost to Carlton in Perth with a set shot on the siren by under a goal.

GWS made finals in 2016-19 including a grand final in 2019. They didnt make finals in 2020 and look to ounce back and make finals in 2021.

Melbourne is a Strange one. Yes they made finals in 2018 and finished bottom 2 in 2019 with a lot of injuries. Should of made finals in 2017 and 2020 to add an extra final or 2 for expereince. They were likely to make finals in 2020 but had horrible losses to Swans and freo. had they won both, would of easily of played finals last season.

Carlton in the last 2 years, their form is extreme on both ends. Just looking at the 2019 season, they knocked off the Bulldogs and Brisbane who made finals and won against freo in perth. Their 1st half of 2019 was bad which resulted in Bolton getting sacked. When David Teague coached the 2nd half of the 2019 season, they were competitive. Take away the 68 pooint loss to geelong in the last round. their other defeats in the 2nd half of 2019 were not bad. Richmond only beat the tigers by 28 points.

In 2020 Carlton beat 2 top 8 sides were the cats in Geelong and belted the dogs. They also got a few narrow wins too.

Saying that... Carlton have not played finals since 2013. So From 2014-2020, they have spent 7 years of no finals. As I said, if your team is doing a 5 year rebuild, that 1st bunch of 18-21 year olds 5 years down the track are 23-26 year olds with 70-100 games under the belt. Not saying its certain to give you success but there should be some improvements.

Freo had a reasonable year last year, but a lot is going to depend on how their forwardline functions. They've got a lot of good players emerging in their midfield and defence, but don't have a heap of targets going forward. Taberner is a workhorse, and they can through Fyfe up there at times, but other than that it's a cast of small and mid-sized players eg Walters (if they use him here), Schulz, Sturt, Henry.

Quick ball movement can make it easier to manufacture goals, but when you're looking at the difference between making finals and just missing out that's one aspect that's hard to mask.

I think it's theoretically possible Freo make the finals, but there has to be some goalkickers emerge to enable it.

 

[M Malice]

Lions started their rebuild end of 2013, finals 2019. Carlton end of 2015, finals 2021 would mirror that timeline

The Lions fair dinkum professional rebuild didn't start until the end of the 2016 season when Chris Fagan and David Noble came on board, before that we were a shambles, any rebuild before then was a house of cards.

 

[La Dispute]

The Lions fair dinkum professional rebuild didn't start until the end of the 2016 season when Chris Fagan and David Noble came on board, before that we were a shambles, any rebuild before then was a house of cards.

Prior to 2019 Brisbane hadn't made the finals since 2011, so there were plenty of low finishes and years of accumulating and testing out younger players. By the time the ship was steadied there was already a bunch of AFL standard players at both ends (Hipwood, McStay, Andrews, Gardiner).

It's a similar situation with the Saints. Their list was a bit of a hodgepodge prior to 2020, but the age demographic was fine due to years of accessing the first round of the draft, they just needed some re-calibrating and a coaching change to give them a push into the finals.

 

[Arr0w]

The Lions fair dinkum professional rebuild didn't start until the end of the 2016 season when Chris Fagan and David Noble came on board, before that we were a shambles, any rebuild before then was a house of cards.

We have gone through a number of failed resets in our time, being the last club in the competition to finally embrace the concept of a true, dedicated rebuild

Rebuilds don't start on the back of a new coach.

I do agree though that the Lions level of professionalism changed for the better with Noble and Fagan

 

[BangyBangy]

The Lions fair dinkum professional rebuild didn't start until the end of the 2016 season when Chris Fagan and David Noble came on board, before that we were a shambles, any rebuild before then was a house of cards.

I think most pick 2013 as the date for the Lions' rebuild because it coincides with the go home 5.

For mine there was no start date really, like there is for most teams, they're just constantly trying to improve. You could probably argue teams that specifically top up with mature players i.e. Hawthorn during their premiership years & North with their attempt at trying to snag one had to draw a line in the sand and start anew.

You could also argue Jason mp that 2013 was the start of our rebuild as we drafted AFL royalty to the club

 

[Yoda_]

I go back to the ‘rebuild’ of Melbourne and laid one of the best things they did when the Dees brought in experienced heads like Daniel Cross

Daniel Cross

Age

41

Ht

187cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

14.8

5star

M

5.2

5star

T

4.3

5star

CL

3.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

3.2

1star

K

1.6

1star

HB

1.6

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

0.6

3star

to set better examples than previously held.
Brisbane doing the same thing with Luke Hosge cannot be under appreciated, that leadership and off field preparation is key in today’s day and age of microanalysis.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Freomaniac]

Carlton need to make finals this year, we aren’t that young any more and we have recruited some mature players to bolster the list. Unless we have a terrible injury run, we need to be making finals. The problem with gutting the list like we ended up having to do is that the players have become accustomed to losing, we have some tremendous young talent on the list but we need to gain confidence and the only way to do that is by winning. I think we will lose Cripps if we don’t make finals.

An this is why I think Carlton will constest for a finals spot. Paddy Cripps is a free agent, that is true. But being in his 8th year, he should be in his prime. He is 25-26 years old. Again the 5 year theory. If you get a few 18-20 year olds, 5 years later, they should be 23-25 year olds pushing the side into finals contention.

Sure Carlton hasnt played finals since 2013. But This isnt Carlton of 2002-4 where they were stuffed losing 1st and 2nd rounders with salary cap breaches.

Carlton would of used picks to draft players in 2014-16. Going to use Carltons 2015 draft as an Example. They used picks on Key Position players. Jacob Weitering was pick 1 in that 2015. I dont think he will be a superstar, But I dont think he will be a dud like Other number 1 picks. I think he will be a solid 200-250 game player.

Harry McKay is pick 10 in that 2015 draft too. He is a KPF/Ruck. Again, not saying he will be elite, but wont be a dud. I reckon he will be a 200 gamer too.

Freo had a reasonable year last year, but a lot is going to depend on how their forwardline functions. They've got a lot of good players emerging in their midfield and defence, but don't have a heap of targets going forward. Taberner is a workhorse, and they can through Fyfe up there at times, but other than that it's a cast of small and mid-sized players eg Walters (if they use him here), Schulz, Sturt, Henry.

Quick ball movement can make it easier to manufacture goals, but when you're looking at the difference between making finals and just missing out that's one aspect that's hard to mask.

I think it's theoretically possible Freo make the finals, but there has to be some goalkickers emerge to enable it.

Looking at Freos forward line. I think 50% of the problem is the forward line and the other 50% is the midfield.

you can have the best forward line in the comp, but if the midfield isnt quick enough to get it down there or not win enough of the ball, then the forward line wont get too much disposals.


I look at freos forward line: the best way to describe it is its not good but its versatile. I still remember the 2012-15 finals period where An Ageing matty pavlich was our only tall 190cm or taller at FF. Now the KPD quality wise isnt great but there is quanitity or depth.

Its like saying do you want one KPF to kick 60-70 goals a season or 2 average tall forwards kick 30-35 each?

Rory Lobb as a KPF ruck just Like Harry McKay at your mob. I would love lobb to kick 30 goals for us in a season.

Im going to get copped crap for this. Matt Taberner Sort of reminds me of John Butcher at Port Adelaide. Both are similiar. Both are 197 cm and 90 kg. Both were good at marking at the ball. But both had the weakeness of spraying set shots. Taberner kicked 29 goals and 13 behinds from 16 games last season. Both tabs and lobb turn 28 year old this season and freo need to make finals while these guys have good years and before walters and Fyfe decline too.

 

[JustaBattler]

^^^
Think you are massively understimating Weitering and Harry McKay

10

Harry Mckay

Age

26

Ht

200cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.9

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

2.4

2star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.4

5star

D

6.6

1star

K

4.6

2star

HB

2.0

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

2star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.4

4star

T

0.8

3star

G

2.0

5star

tbh.

 

[BangyBangy]

^^^
Think you are massively understimating Weitering and Harry McKay tbh.

He said they will both be 200+ game players.

That's pretty high praise in itself. Should he have gone further?

They each may become superstars, but you have to be wearing rose coloured glasses to say it's expected / likely. Only supporters do that.

 

[JustaBattler]

He said they will both be 200+ game players.

That's pretty high praise in itself. Should he have gone further?

They each may become superstars, but you have to be wearing rose coloured glasses to say it's expected / likely. Only supporters do that.

I don't know what a superstar FB looks like do you? Weitering was unbeaten all year - that will do Carlton. As for Harry McKay - he was second to Hawkins in goals kicked after the bye and first in contested marks- Harry is now completing his first ever pre-season since being drafted. Neither is going to be a 'role player' both are tracking to be match winners for us - the only FF I can see being better than Harry or Charlie Curnow (if he ever gets back) is King at St Kilda. these types as you no doubt understand are very rare - we haven't had a decent forward since Fevola.

 

[BangyBangy]

I don't know what a superstar FB looks like do you? Weitering was unbeaten all year - that will do Carlton. As for Harry McKay - he was second to Hawkins in goals kicked after the bye and first in contested marks- Harry is now completing his first ever pre-season since being drafted. Neither is going to be a 'role player' both are tracking to be match winners for us - the only FF I can see being better than Harry or Charlie Curnow (if he ever gets back) is King at St Kilda. these types as you no doubt understand are very rare - we haven't had a decent forward since Fevola.

Betts was handy

 

[JustaBattler]

Betts was handy

Played hsi best at Adelaide- when he had 3 monster marking forwards to take all the heat away from him as all smalls do. Wouldnt say no to Cameron coming to joing Eddie though - he IS a gun

 

[Freomaniac]

^^^
Think you are massively understimating Weitering and Harry McKay tbh.

Not Trying to say Jacob Weitering is bad. The bloke is only 23 years old. He hasnt his his prime years yet.

Not trying to undestimate Harry McKay either. 71 goals from 48 games means he has done something. I do agree he has upside. Again, like Weitering is only 23 years old and hasnt hit his prime years yet.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

This says Carlton finished half a game ahead of Essendon. I don’t know about you but that looks pretty close to me


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Percentages tell a story there too. Carlton were in more games despite the close win/loss records.
Carlton had the lowest average losing margin in the league. Essendon had the 6th highest.
Essendon finished 8th in 2019 and Carlton finished 16th.

So Carlton jumped from 16th to 11th and gained 10 percentage points. Went from 9th worst losing margin to lowest in the league.
Essendon dropped from 8th to 13th and dropped 16 percentage points.
It would look close to the casual observer.

 

[Freomaniac]

This says Carlton finished half a game ahead of Essendon. I don’t know about you but that looks pretty close to me


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While you're fact checking, have a look where the teams were two years ago.

If you ha vent noticed but this thread has zilch to do with Essendon..
Stay on topic please.

Percentages tell a story there too. Carlton were in more games despite the close win/loss records.
Carlton had the lowest average losing margin in the league. Essendon had the 6th highest.
Essendon finished 8th in 2019 and Carlton finished 16th.

So Carlton jumped from 16th to 11th and gained 10 percentage points. Went from 9th worst losing margin to lowest in the league.
Essendon dropped from 8th to 13th and dropped 16 percentage points.
It would look close to the casual observer.

I hate bringing up the Half glass Full/empty term....

1st off Carltons percentage of 94.3 isnt bad. Freos is narrowly worse at 93.7 so it seems both teams are not far away from finals.


But its both interesting on both ends. Looking at Carltons 7 wins, they belted Dogs and Suns. Yet they won 5 games in single digits including 4 wins by a goal or less.

On the other hand they lost 3 close games as well. So its extreme on both ends. Had they won 2-3 more close games, they would of made finals. Had they lost all 4 games they won by a goal or less they would be bottom 3.

This isnt the Carlton of 2005-7 where they had to rebuild by tanking or losing close games to get Early picks. Under David Teague since mid 2019, the Blues have had their fair share of close games and grinded out their fair share of close wins too.

As I said about Carltons 2nd half in 2019, the Blues improved under Teague compared to Brendan Bolton. You look at those last 10 Carlton games of 2019, they really only had one bad game and that was the 68 point loss to the cats in the final game of the regular seaon. The eventual 2019 premiers in Richmond only Beat the blues by 28 points.

So as a netrual fan, I am keen and curious on how Carlton under David Teague will go in 2021. They reminded me of the demons in 2014-17, they finished bottom 4 but then gradually improved. And if the slow gradual improvement is anything to Go by, Carlton will be finishing between 7th-10th.

 

[Robertio]

I hate bringing up the Half glass Full/empty term....

1st off Carltons percentage of 94.3 isnt bad. Freos is narrowly worse at 93.7 so it seems both teams are not far away from finals.


But its both interesting on both ends. Looking at Carltons 7 wins, they belted Dogs and Suns. Yet they won 5 games in single digits including 4 wins by a goal or less.

On the other hand they lost 3 close games as well. So its extreme on both ends. Had they won 2-3 more close games, they would of made finals. Had they lost all 4 games they won by a goal or less they would be bottom 3.

This isnt the Carlton of 2005-7 where they had to rebuild by tanking or losing close games to get Early picks. Under David Teague since mid 2019, the Blues have had their fair share of close games and grinded out their fair share of close wins too.

As I said about Carltons 2nd half in 2019, the Blues improved under Teague compared to Brendan Bolton. You look at those last 10 Carlton games of 2019, they really only had one bad game and that was the 68 point loss to the cats in the final game of the regular seaon. The eventual 2019 premiers in Richmond only Beat the blues by 28 points.

So as a netrual fan, I am keen and curious on how Carlton under David Teague will go in 2021. They reminded me of the demons in 2014-17, they finished bottom 4 but then gradually improved. And if the slow gradual improvement is anything to Go by, Carlton will be finishing between 7th-10th.

Yep those positions from 7-10 will be very interesting, injuries will play a part as well. Can't wait, going to be an interesting season.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Yep those positions from 7-10 will be very interesting, injuries will play a part as well. Can't wait, going to be an interesting season.

Carlton have to pass clubs, there won't be any coming back the other way (maybe Collingwood) so if the make the 8, there will be no disputing they are on the right track.

 

[Jeremias]

Carlton have to pass clubs, there won't be any coming back the other way (maybe Collingwood) so if the make the 8, there will be no disputing they are on the right track.

So let me get this straight, of the top 10 sides in the competition from 2020, only one might go backwards in 2021.

Without even discussing Carlton, that seems incredibly unlikely.