Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Mr Meow]

Flags in last 60 years:

Geelong 4

v

North Melbourne 4


Spot the difference......


































v Richmond 8.

You may find it easier to spot the difference there.

In my lifetime watching footy it's Geelong 4, Richmond 3, NM 2.

Misery index (years being a terrible, terrible football club) Richmond 1st, NM 2nd, Geelong 3rd.

I'm glad you're proud of your age, but fearful that it's very likely you've seen your last ever Richmond flag. Ah well, besides the 35 odd year block of complete irrelevancy in the middle - you had a good innings, old boy.

 

[The Casey Cat]

4 years after a flag and 19k at the G. Another 8 years of this and we might as well ask a local council to find a park ground to host their matches.

Wouldn't joke about it. They've got as low as under 7000 at the G before.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Hawkins, Duncan, Tuohy, Blicavs, Danger, Stanley, Stewart, Gutherie, Rohan, Atkins

All players who will retire in the next 1-3 seasons.

Cameron, Kolo, Bews 4-5 if not earlier.

They have 1 pick in the top 50 this year.

Cats rebuild not even close to starting. They are a bit unlucky as probably are down the bottom when Tassie compromises the draft. But they won a flag so was worth it.

Well for one you aren’t getting a top 25 pick for Esava.

Two, that was handy of you to just randomly chose pick 25 as a starting point.

Just change it to first and second rounders our numbers increase significantly and yours don’t. Our 25+ picks have shown more at AFL level than Knevitt, Conway or Clark (who was injured I know). Where they were selected is irrelevant.

Maric, Culley, Long, Williams, Hough, Petchrucelle, Waterman. Outside the top 25 or from the MSD.

Can’t just discount them. Not sure Geelong have anyone picked outside the top 25 under 25 to hang their hat on. Maybe Miers and Close were late picks but both are pretty much 25 aren’t they? No teenagers like 4 of the names I mentioned.

I think you are a bit optimistic of the state of your list. Believe me I’ve been there. You won a flag. Few years down the bottom won’t ever change that. It’s always worth it.

I feel you have proven my point with those names you just listed better than I ever could.

Very optimistic.

We will see how all those players look in an ordinary side. It’s why the likes of Jack Henry have gone backwards. All good teams have them. Players who look great when everyone else is carrying the team.

Duggan, Cole, Sheed to name a few for us. Look what has happened when they need to be the ones?

We will see how many assists Miers gets to go along with his 6 goals kicking to Neale as opposed to Hawkins and Cameron for example. No surprise Stengle was a lot better in 2022 than this year or any year at the Crows either.

Maybe they will prove me wrong but having just witnessed this thing first hand I don’t think they will.

Just to go over this 1 year later I don't think Kobe Gryant intention was to discount WCE rebuild outright, I think it was to highlight and rebut the notion that GFC's hadn't started in earnest yet.

And you mention optimistic more than once, and we're all the same here, most wouldn't know the form or development of youth players at other clubs until they break through. I for one couldn't tell you what Eagles listed players were developing well and those not so well at WAFL level.

As for the unexposed youth he listed from 2023 Neale has now broken through into the AFL team and with the impending retirement of Hawkins likely won't see much VFL action in the next 12-24 months so we'll get to see what extent his improvement and development at AFL takes. 1.8 goals a game so far is good start, and as we've seen this year from Amartey and Waterman KPF development can sometimes take time but players can unexpectedly suddenly take that leap.

Then there's Dempsey. Not much need be said there. Very good chance at winning the Rising Star award.
Next year will hopefully see a first full season of Humphries, and the potential addition of Bailey Smith. Two players in their early 20s with hopefully a decade of footy left.

2023 end season best side v best side now (July 2024).

B: Bews, De Koning Henry
HB: Stewart Kolodjashnij Z.Guthrie
C: I.Smith Dangerfield Tuohy
HF: Miers Cameron Rohan
F: O.Henry Hawkins Stengle
R: Stanley Atkins Blicavs
IC: Holmes Bruhn Close O'Connor Duncan

B: Z.Guthrie, Henry Tuohy
HB: Humphries Kolodjashnij Holmes
C: Dempsey Dangerfield Mannagh
HF: Miers Cameron Rohan
F: Close Neale Stengle
R: De Koning Atkins Stewart
IC: Bruhn Bowes Blicavs Duncan Clark

C.Guthrie left out of both as injured majority of both seasons, ditto Conway for similar reasons.

Subjective of course, some would argue for a player here and there to change, or swap positions, and last year was hard as lots of players had 10+ games due to above average injury frequency. Red = 2023 not best side now. Blue = changed position = Orange is best side now.

As it stands Bews (30), Smith (34), Henry (21), Hawkins (36), Stanley (33) and O'Connor (27) replaced by Humphries (21), Dempsey (21), Neale (22), Clark (20), Bowes (26) and Mannagh (26). Like I said earlier add in Smith (24 at years end) and there's likely another older player replaced by someone with more years.

What you see with Geelong, and this probably is contrasted by most sides - Sydney may be another similar example - is that change is continuous and gradual, and players often serve 1-2 year apprenticeships in the VFL before making the leap and quickly establishing themselves. This is much harder for the average neutral fan who doesn't follow the club closely and can result in the assumption that a rebuild is yet to start and should be on the horizon

O'Sullivan, Knevitt, Hardie or Willis could be just such players by this time next year.

 

[dazbroncos]

Fair bit of talk around Rioli, Baker and Bolton now from fairly credible sources.

Cats are about to be shown what a real rebuild looks like.

Calendar for 2032 marked for potential Tiger Top 8 finish after real rebuild.

Go Catters

 

[Trent the flight Steward]

If our list was the worst in the league then clubs wouldn't be queueing up to offer us rd 1 picks in a very strong draft for several of our players, and it wouldn't have taken a biblical level injury list to put us in pole position for the draft.

Baker is worth pick 12-13 and he is uncontracted so Richmond would get something worth around that for him, not necessarily pick 12 or 13.

Rioli and Bolton are jets and long contracted, so it will take decent draft currency to get them out of Tigerland. If Richmond is going this way then obviously paying some of their salary is a viable option, which will appeal greatly to the 2 clubs looking to contend who hold all the rd 1 picks, Suns, and Fremantle.

So Rioli is probably worth pick 10-12 in a straight out trade when out of contract(see the Adam Saad trade to Blues.)

Bolton is probably worth a top 3 pick in a straight out trade(see Jeremy Cameron, Tim Kelly trades.)

But the thing that is going to be very annoying for you guys is there are two reasons Richmond can get overs. First, they are both long contracted, so the Tigers need to be compelled to trade them(see Lachie Schultz trade.) Second, if Richmond trades these players and drafts a load of new talent then paying half their salary for 3-4 years is not going to be a huge issue(see the Bowes + pick 7 for salary relief trade.)

It just so happens the 2 clubs holding all the rd 1 picks are desperate to push for their first flags and need exactly these type of players. Which is somewhat unlucky for you guys.

Add to that we are likely to have pick 1, and some clubs may be interested in offering a premium for that pick.

And add to that there will be clubs needing points to match bids on players in the first round that will come before their natural rd 1 selections. And guess who holds the most points?

And just a little reminder, the consensus on the 2024 draft is it is very strong and deep.

Check ****ing mate.

No one is paying 2 firsts for rioli. Bolton is more likely to end up at the sun's for 2 firsts.

Using your methods, how are they worth more than hopper and Taranto? Or stringer, when he went to the dons.

Your list is like clarkos last year at the hawks. It's not some magic trade wand and you'll be okay. What did they get for omeara and Mitchell

 

[Meteoric Rise]

No one is paying 2 firsts for rioli. Bolton is more likely to end up at the sun's for 2 firsts.

Using your methods, how are they worth more than hopper and Taranto? Or stringer, when he went to the dons.

Your list is like clarkos last year at the hawks. It's not some magic trade wand and you'll be okay. What did they get for omeara and Mitchell

Oh, this is going to be more unpleasant for you than I thought. Was hoping to make it a soft landing for you Trent the flight Steward.

 

[Mr Meow]

Oh, this is going to be more unpleasant for you than I thought. Was hoping to make it a soft landing for you Trent the flight Steward.

How long will it take these draftees to make a material difference to Richmond's fortunes? It was 8 seasons after Martin's recruitment that Richmond finally advanced past an elimination final. So maybe in 2032 Richmond make a prelim?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

How long will it take these draftees to make a material difference to Richmond's fortunes? It was 8 seasons after Martin's recruitment that Richmond finally advanced past an elimination final. So maybe in 2032 Richmond make a prelim?

So long as we collect the usual 3-5 flags ala the Bartlett/Hart/Bourke/Clay/Sheedy era and the Cotchin/Martin/Riewoldt/Rance/Edwards era, then we don't mind how long we have to wait meow. In the first instance it happened quickly, in the second instance it happened slowly. Perhaps this time it will happen neither quickly or slowly, it will just happen. And it will be beautiful.

 

[Mr Meow]

So long as we collect the usual 3-5 flags ala the Bartlett/Hart/Bourke/Clay/Sheedy era and the Cotchin/Martin/Riewoldt/Rance/Edwards era, then we don't mind how long we have to wait meow. In the first instance it happened quickly, in the second instance it happened slowly. Perhaps this time it will happen neither quickly or slowly, it will just happen. And it will be beautiful.

"The usual" - yeah there was a lot of usual '81 through '16 wasn't there? So you are ready for a 35 year gap?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

"The usual" - yeah there was a lot of usual '81 through '16 wasn't there? So you are ready for a 35 year gap?

We are talking about teams being built here on this thread.

There are 3 distinct phases to this history over my lifetime.

In the mid 60's Richmond recruited a heap of young stars and success followed with 5 flags and 7 Grand Final appearances over the next 17 or so years up to 1982. These guys were recruited into a well run club, with progressive administration and some decent mature players that had been through some tough times. That was phase 1.

Phase 3 basically commenced in 2006 when Richmond recruited a heap of young stars over the next few drafts, and won 3 Premierships over the next 14 seasons. These players were recruited into a club with a one man recruiting department, with a greatly underfunded football department, debt, and not much in the way of quality older players to lead them. Due to drafting rules, the club was able to draft the star players first then right everything else as the players matured. But it took a lot longer than phase 1. Also naturally the competition was deeper.

Now in between phases 1 and 3 Meow, unsurprisingly, you will find phase 2. Phase 2 did not contain any period of major influx of talent. And Richmond did not have their act together off the field, despite brave attempts by certain people such as Neville Crowe to put some pride into the place. This phase ran from 1983 to 2005. Just note again, no major influx of top end talent in this period due to the club being so far behind other clubs off field.

We are about to enter a 4th distinct phase Meow. I, using my great powers of imagination, will call this phase 4. There appears to be the motive, opportunity and draft resources in a super strong draft, to introduce a 1966 level of talent to the club all in 1 draft, with a likely couple of years afterwards to add some more top end talent. Now these guys are pretty much assured of arriving at a progressive club, with a fully funded football department, soon to have all new facilities, and who will be waiting for them? A hardened and success-rich senior core of Nankervis, Vlastuin, Short, Balta, Taranto, Hopper, Lynch, and some talented recent draftees and like all teams basically all the time, a few other reasonable players slowly make their way up the food chain. Can you spot any difference between what this group of 8-10 rd 1 picks over a couple of off seasons are going to step into compared to phases 2 & 3? Between you and I, it won't take 11 years for our next super team to win a flag this time. Though it may take a bit longer than the 1-2 years it took to start accumulating flags when the phase 1 high end talent arrived.

Let's just map out how this could play out for you here Meow. Not saying it will, just it could.

1. Tigers finish bottom and get pick 1, to go with picks 21, 34, 39, 41, 52, 57, 63, 66. Now all those later picks would be worth around 2800 draft points. Let's say they slide a bit before they can be traded, reducing them to 2500 draft points. This can likely be traded to clubs needing to match bids for 2 late rd 1 picks. Let's say picks 19 & 22 for argument's sake. So the club is sitting on something like picks 1, 19 & 22 before any players leave. Nice.

2. Baker leaves. Most people believe he is worth a 10-15 pick, so let's say 13. If Richmond doesn't actually get pick 13 for him, they will get picks that can likely be swapped for a pick in that region. So at this stage we have picks 1, 13, 19 & 22. Not bad.

3. Fremantle decides they just have to have Bolton, and who could blame them, he is precisely the player they need with Sunny Walters on his last legs. Bolton is long contracted so he will take a big offer to shift. But I will be conservative here and say the 3 first round picks Fremantle owns in the 2024 draft with nothing going back but maybe Richmond paying some salary. Those picks Fremantle own currently sit at 7, 10 & 14 but will slip a little. So let's say 8, 11, 16. This now gives Richmond picks 1, 8, 11, 13, 16, 19 & 22 in the 2024 NAB Richmond Draft.

4. Jack Graham finishes the season off well, he goes as a free agent to Port, Crows or Eagles, who I believe have all shown interest. From what we can gather a $560k+ contract for say 4 years would trigger band 3 compensation for Richmond. Damn, another rd 2 pick straight after Richmond's natural rd 2 pick. Let's say then this is pick 22 and will slip to pick 25 by trade time. Richmond holds picks 1, 8, 11, 13, 16, 19, 22 & 26 at the 2024 NAB Richmond Draft.

5. Gold Coast Suns realise they can't live without D Rioli but would like some of his salary paid. No problem says Richmond, We will give you D Rioli w/$350k paid for 3 years, and picks 22 & 26, you give us the picks currently sitting at 8, 9, which you couldn't have used anyway due to Lombard. Let's say those picks slip a place. Richmond enters the 2024 NAB Richmond FC Draft with a very tidy array of picks 1, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 16, 19. Trade down from pick 1 for say pick 4 and a future first, expected value around pick 10. Hit the deep and strong 2024 draft with picks 4, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 16, 19. And likely in 2025 picks around 5, 10, 25 to kick start that campaign as well. If the Tigers really fancy a certain player at any point in proceedings they can easily parcel 2 or more of those picks up and move up the oder.

There is your phase 4 version of Hart/Bartlett/Clay/Sheedy/Bourke or Cotchin/Martin/Riewoldt/Rance/Edwards right there Meow. Straight onto the Tiger's list ready to start developing into the players Geelong least wants to face in finals a few short years down the line.

And all you have to do Meow is sit back and watch it all unfold with your mouth open.

 

[Mr Meow]

We are talking about teams being built here on this thread.

There are 3 distinct phases to this history over my lifetime.

In the mid 60's Richmond recruited a heap of young stars and success followed with 5 flags and 7 Grand Final appearances over the next 17 or so years up to 1982. These guys were recruited into a well run club, with progressive administration and some decent mature players that had been through some tough times. That was phase 1.

Phase 3 basically commenced in 2006 when Richmond recruited a heap of young stars over the next few drafts, and won 3 Premierships over the next 14 seasons. These players were recruited into a club with a one man recruiting department, with a greatly underfunded football department, debt, and not much in the way of quality older players to lead them. Due to drafting rules, the club was able to draft the star players first then right everything else as the players matured. But it took a lot longer than phase 1. Also naturally the competition was deeper.

Now in between phases 1 and 3 Meow, unsurprisingly, you will find phase 2. Phase 2 did not contain any period of major influx of talent. And Richmond did not have their act together off the field, despite brave attempts by certain people such as Neville Crowe to put some pride into the place. This phase ran from 1983 to 2005. Just note again, no major influx of top end talent in this period due to the club being so far behind other clubs off field.

We are about to enter a 4th distinct phase Meow. I, using my great imagination, will call this phase 4. There appears to be the motive, opportunity and draft resources in a super strong draft, to introduce a 1966 level of talent to the club all in 1 draft, with a likely couple of years afterwards to add some more top end talent. Now these guys are pretty much assured of arriving at a progressive club, with a fully funded football department, soon to have all new facilities, and who will be waiting for them? A hardened and success-rich senior core of Nankervis, Vlastuin, Short, Balta, Taranto, Hopper, Lynch, and some talented recent draftees and like all teams basically all the time, a few other reasonable players slowly make their way up the food chain. Can you spot any difference between what this group of 8-10 rd 1 picks over a couple of off seasons are going to step into compared to phases 2 & 3? Between you and I, it won't take 11 years for our next super team to win a flag this time. Though it may take a bit longer than the 1-2 years it took to start accumulating flags when the phase 1 high end talent arrived.

Let's just map out how this could play out for you here Meow. Not saying it will, just it could.

1. Tigers finish bottom and get pick 1, to go with picks 21, 34, 39, 41, 52, 57, 63, 66. Now all those later picks would be worth around 2800 draft points. Let's say they slide a bit before they can be traded, reducing them to 2500 draft points. This can likely be traded to clubs needing to match bids for 2 late rd 1 picks. Let's say picks 19 & 22 for argument's sake. So the club is sitting on something like picks 1, 19 & 22 before any players leave. Nice.

2. Baker leaves. Most people believe he is worth a 10-15 pick, so let's say 13. If Richmond doesn't actually get pick 13 for him, they will get picks that can likely be swapped for a pick in that region. So at this stage we have picks 1, 13, 19 & 22. Not bad.

3. Fremantle decides they just have to have Bolton, and who could blame them, he is precisely the player they need with Sunny Walters on his last legs. Bolton is long contracted so he will take a big offer to shift. But I will be conservative here and say the 3 first round picks Fremantle owns in the 2024 draft with nothing going back but maybe Richmond paying some salary. Those picks Fremantle own currently sit at 7, 10 & 14 but will slip a little. So let's say 8, 11, 16. This now gives Richmond picks 1, 8, 11, 13, 16, 19 & 22 in the 2024 NAB Richmond Draft.

4. Jack Graham finishes the season off well, he goes as a free agent to Port, Crows or Eagles, who I believe have all shown interest. From what we can gather a $560k+ contract for say 4 years would trigger band 3 compensation for Richmond. Damn, another rd 2 pick straight after Richmond's natural rd 2 pick. Let's say then this is pick 22 and will slip to pick 25 by trade time. Richmond holds picks 1, 8, 11, 13, 16, 19, 22 & 26 at the 2024 NAB Richmond Draft.

5. Gold Coast Suns realise they can't live without D Rioli but would like some of his salary paid. No problem says Richmond, We will give you D Rioli w/$350k paid for 3 years, and picks 22 & 26, you give us the picks currently sitting at 8, 9, which you couldn't have used anyway due to Lombard. Let's say those picks slip a place. Richmond enters the 2024 NAB Richmond FC Draft with a very tidy array of picks 1, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 16, 19. Trade down from pick 1 for say pick 4 and a future first, expected value around pick 10. Hit the deep and strong 2024 draft with picks 4, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 16, 19. And likely in 2025 picks around 5, 10, 25 to kick start that campaign as well. If the Tigers really fancy a certain player at any point in proceedings they can easily parcel 2 or more of those picks up and move up the oder.

There is your phase 4 version of Hart/Bartlett/Clay/Sheedy/Bourke or Cotchin/Martin/Riewoldt/Rance/Edwards right there Meow. Straight onto the Tiger's list ready to start developing into the players Geelong least wants to face in finals a few short years down the line.

And all you have to do Meow is sit back and watch it all unfold with your mouth open.

That was actually a well articulated post of substance (the exaggerations I don't mind, all part of the fun), so no mocking from me on this one.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That was actually a well articulated post of substance (the exaggerations I don't mind, all part of the fun), so no mocking from me on this one.

You are right in acknowledging it is entirely possible something along those lines could happen, and the difficulties Richmond faced 1983-2006 should not exist now. So well done.

 

[Mr Meow]

You are right in acknowledging it is entirely possible something along those lines could happen, and the difficulties Richmond faced 1983-2006 should not exist now. So well done.

I'm nothing if not fair MR, you should know that by now.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I'm nothing if not fair MR, you should know that by now.

You are a better person than me. I try to be unfair as often as possible. Being fair doesn't start enough fights.


We are hearing the Tigers are open to trading some key players and we can see why, the value looks to be there. It would be a smart pivot if they can get the right picks in return. If not, I am sure they will be happy to keep the contracted players.

 

[Warhorse]

We are talking about teams being built here on this thread.

There are 3 distinct phases to this history over my lifetime.

In the mid 60's Richmond recruited a heap of young stars and success followed with 5 flags and 7 Grand Final appearances over the next 17 or so years up to 1982. These guys were recruited into a well run club, with progressive administration and some decent mature players that had been through some tough times. That was phase 1.

Phase 3 basically commenced in 2006 when Richmond recruited a heap of young stars over the next few drafts, and won 3 Premierships over the next 14 seasons. These players were recruited into a club with a one man recruiting department, with a greatly underfunded football department, debt, and not much in the way of quality older players to lead them. Due to drafting rules, the club was able to draft the star players first then right everything else as the players matured. But it took a lot longer than phase 1. Also naturally the competition was deeper.

Now in between phases 1 and 3 Meow, unsurprisingly, you will find phase 2. Phase 2 did not contain any period of major influx of talent. And Richmond did not have their act together off the field, despite brave attempts by certain people such as Neville Crowe to put some pride into the place. This phase ran from 1983 to 2005. Just note again, no major influx of top end talent in this period due to the club being so far behind other clubs off field.

We are about to enter a 4th distinct phase Meow. I, using my great powers of imagination, will call this phase 4. There appears to be the motive, opportunity and draft resources in a super strong draft, to introduce a 1966 level of talent to the club all in 1 draft, with a likely couple of years afterwards to add some more top end talent. Now these guys are pretty much assured of arriving at a progressive club, with a fully funded football department, soon to have all new facilities, and who will be waiting for them? A hardened and success-rich senior core of Nankervis, Vlastuin, Short, Balta, Taranto, Hopper, Lynch, and some talented recent draftees and like all teams basically all the time, a few other reasonable players slowly make their way up the food chain. Can you spot any difference between what this group of 8-10 rd 1 picks over a couple of off seasons are going to step into compared to phases 2 & 3? Between you and I, it won't take 11 years for our next super team to win a flag this time. Though it may take a bit longer than the 1-2 years it took to start accumulating flags when the phase 1 high end talent arrived.

Let's just map out how this could play out for you here Meow. Not saying it will, just it could.

1. Tigers finish bottom and get pick 1, to go with picks 21, 34, 39, 41, 52, 57, 63, 66. Now all those later picks would be worth around 2800 draft points. Let's say they slide a bit before they can be traded, reducing them to 2500 draft points. This can likely be traded to clubs needing to match bids for 2 late rd 1 picks. Let's say picks 19 & 22 for argument's sake. So the club is sitting on something like picks 1, 19 & 22 before any players leave. Nice.

2. Baker leaves. Most people believe he is worth a 10-15 pick, so let's say 13. If Richmond doesn't actually get pick 13 for him, they will get picks that can likely be swapped for a pick in that region. So at this stage we have picks 1, 13, 19 & 22. Not bad.

3. Fremantle decides they just have to have Bolton, and who could blame them, he is precisely the player they need with Sunny Walters on his last legs. Bolton is long contracted so he will take a big offer to shift. But I will be conservative here and say the 3 first round picks Fremantle owns in the 2024 draft with nothing going back but maybe Richmond paying some salary. Those picks Fremantle own currently sit at 7, 10 & 14 but will slip a little. So let's say 8, 11, 16. This now gives Richmond picks 1, 8, 11, 13, 16, 19 & 22 in the 2024 NAB Richmond Draft.

4. Jack Graham finishes the season off well, he goes as a free agent to Port, Crows or Eagles, who I believe have all shown interest. From what we can gather a $560k+ contract for say 4 years would trigger band 3 compensation for Richmond. Damn, another rd 2 pick straight after Richmond's natural rd 2 pick. Let's say then this is pick 22 and will slip to pick 25 by trade time. Richmond holds picks 1, 8, 11, 13, 16, 19, 22 & 26 at the 2024 NAB Richmond Draft.

5. Gold Coast Suns realise they can't live without D Rioli but would like some of his salary paid. No problem says Richmond, We will give you D Rioli w/$350k paid for 3 years, and picks 22 & 26, you give us the picks currently sitting at 8, 9, which you couldn't have used anyway due to Lombard. Let's say those picks slip a place. Richmond enters the 2024 NAB Richmond FC Draft with a very tidy array of picks 1, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 16, 19. Trade down from pick 1 for say pick 4 and a future first, expected value around pick 10. Hit the deep and strong 2024 draft with picks 4, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 16, 19. And likely in 2025 picks around 5, 10, 25 to kick start that campaign as well. If the Tigers really fancy a certain player at any point in proceedings they can easily parcel 2 or more of those picks up and move up the oder.

There is your phase 4 version of Hart/Bartlett/Clay/Sheedy/Bourke or Cotchin/Martin/Riewoldt/Rance/Edwards right there Meow. Straight onto the Tiger's list ready to start developing into the players Geelong least wants to face in finals a few short years down the line.

And all you have to do Meow is sit back and watch it all unfold with your mouth open.

Why would Richmond do this. It would basically turn themselves into North for the next 5 years.

 

[MisterMarcus]

So Richmond will have a fantastic rebuild because every club will pay massive overs for players and junk picks, purely out of the kindness of their hearts.

Makes sense to me.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Why would Richmond do this. It would basically turn themselves into North for the next 5 years.

It wouldn't.

North didn't have any of the following things:

• A successful senior core
• A few valuable players they could trade away for decent draft capital
• a huge hand in a very strong draft.

Richmond would be hoping and expecting to be more like Melbourne's trajectory post 2014, Adelaide's post 2021, Swans post 2018, Power post 2018, Suns post 2019.

Richmond would probably have roughly as strong a senior core as the average of these teams at those times, but be introducing kids somewhere near the level of talent Suns are putting on the park in 2024. And these guys will be finding their feet by around 2027-28 and leading the team from soon after, say like Butters and Rozee for Port now.

North had a series of calamities and failed policies if you examine it fairly, a lot of what happened to them could happen to anyone, including Richmond or Geelong, and at any time.

2006 pick 3 Hansen 151 games but cut down by injuries in the end.

2007 pick 15 Tarrant, badly restricted by injuries.

2009 pick 5 Cunnington, decent career but the end badly effected by injuries when they needed guys like that leading the team.

2011 pick 18 McKenzie, not sure of his history but only played 37 games.

2012 pick 15 Garner, restricted by injuries never kicked on.

2012 pick 37 Jacobs, destroyed by injuries when going really well.

2013 pick 8 McDonald compelled to take him as a f/s but has never reached the heights they'd have been hoping for.

2014 pick 16 Sam Durdin. Failed.

2015 pick 21 Ben McKay Badly restricted by injuries at North and in the end released for a deferred quality player.

2018 pick 8 Tarryn Thomas. Could be a Conor Rozee by now bar for his troubles.

2020 pick 3 Will Phillips. Still possible he can be a more than useful player but is struggling to impact in the way North would have expected by year 4.

2021 pick 1 Horne-Francis. Like MCKay, they deferred his value to a quality future player after being forced to give him up.

When the depth in your older contingent of quality players collapses due to injury like this it creates shocking instability. North exacerbated this by making several wrong turns, including investing heavily in instant success when Brad Scott was at the helm, del Santo, Waite, Higgins and others from memory. But plenty of their problems were not really of their own making. And they look to be on a better track now, with a series of talented and committed high draft picks following froom Simpkin, Uniacke, now leading the likes of Sheazel, Wardlaw, McKercher and Duursma playing under a coach who actually knows how to coach. Remember Clarkson was out for a large part of 2023 as well.

There is no reason Richmond or any other team should expect to end up like that. Richmond will expect 2-4 years of weaker then inconsistent performances then they will expect to be on an upward curve.




So the had Ziebell and Goldstein and not many others of note that got to play out a full career through the draft in that whole period. Which left them with a whole lot of young guys coming in and not enough stable structure to lead them. So they start recruiting guys from other clubs and come up with players who have nowhere else to go, Polec,

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So Richmond will have a fantastic rebuild because every club will pay massive overs for players and junk picks, purely out of the kindness of their hearts.

Makes sense to me.

Let's bookmark my outlining of what is possible and your comment here then shall we.

I don't think you are reading the situation quite right.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Let's bookmark my outlining of what is possible and your comment here then shall we.

I don't think you are reading the situation quite right.

Just to get this on record you're expecting Richmond to:

1. Lose Baker, Rioli, Bolton and Graham.
2. End up with 8x top 20 picks in this draft and a mid range future first.
3. Be at least somewhat competitive next year (the teams you mentioned were in the 6-8 win range) without giving up any of this draft capital.
4. Be pushing for finals by 2026 and make finals by 2027 (again this is what the teams you mentioned were doing).

Is that accurate?

 

[Mr Meow]

Just to get this on record you're expecting Richmond to:

1. Lose Baker, Rioli, Bolton and Graham.
2. End up with 8x top 20 picks in this draft and a mid range future first.
3. Be at least somewhat competitive next year (the teams you mentioned were in the 6-8 win range) without giving up any of this draft capital.
4. Be pushing for finals by 2026 and make finals by 2027 (again this is what the teams you mentioned were doing).

Is that accurate?

To be fair I would give up a draft pick just to exile Graham.

And Bolton won't give his all for a poor team anyway. So then it becomes a question of whether it's worth it to keep Rioli and Baker, if they could get overs for them.

But then they shouldn't have picked up Hopper at the very least. He's dead weight, and cost a bit.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Just to get this on record you're expecting Richmond to:

1. Lose Baker, Rioli, Bolton and Graham.
2. End up with 8x top 20 picks in this draft and a mid range future first.
3. Be at least somewhat competitive next year (the teams you mentioned were in the 6-8 win range) without giving up any of this draft capital.
4. Be pushing for finals by 2026 and make finals by 2027 (again this is what the teams you mentioned were doing).

Is that accurate?

Let's be serious here. I cannot be confident to say Richmond will trade out/release as free agents those 4 players, even the list manager wouldn't know that at this point. It will depend partially on events between now and the end of the season, partially on the player's wishes, partially on whether the draft pick offers from other clubs are sufficient to make Richmond want to release the players. This is not a fire sale situation, there is no cap pressure, and no pressing need to do anything drastic.

But I have outlined a plausible plan where Richmond would have 10 first round draft pick across the next 2 off-seasons. If just Bolton satys a Tiger that obviously reduces my projected figure to 7 rd 1 draft picks. If they don't split pick 1 it would be 6. I believe if Richmond was able to do something like what I have outlined, they would be open to it.

I don't believe Richmond going down this path would be pushing for finals in 2026 and make finals by 2027. Not all the teams I mentioned followed a timeline anything like that. Each one of them is different from each other and Richmond's rebuild would be different from them all. But I expect if Richmond went this way we would produce teams to seriously contend sooner than the 11 year gap between the 2006 acquisition of Riewoldt and Edwards in our first year with a full time recruiter in place, and the 2017 top 4 finish and flag. I outlined the reasons why I would expect the process to be quicker, did you not read that part?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

To be fair I would give up a draft pick just to exile Graham.

And Bolton won't give his all for a poor team anyway. So then it becomes a question of whether it's worth it to keep Rioli and Baker, if they could get overs for them.

But then they shouldn't have picked up Hopper at the very least. He's dead weight, and cost a bit.

Hopper, if he stays mainly fit over the next 5 years will be a very important part of bedding in our new developing midfielders. He, Steely Green and Kaleb Smith(keep an eye on how that pair progress) cost picks 8 & 34. But that is only an over payment because Richmond finished below where they and everyone else expected them to in 2023.

The critical part of all this as North found out is you don't want your strong mature mids collapsing with injury while the young guys are developing. Hopefully Hopper gets a good run at it and produces near his best footy, he is a bloody good player.

On Bolton it is worth saying this. In 2024 so far he is the number 1 player in the AFL defined as a mid-forward. Admittedly not too many of them are on fire this year and he is down on recent seasons, but he has been playing in a non-existent midfield and totally unstable forward line this year. His record speaks for itself. He was the number 1 mid-forward 2023. Number 1 2022. In 2020 & 2021 he was defined as a midfielder. So he has spent all of the last 3 seasons as the highest rated mid-forward in the AFL. Regardless of the fact some strong mids would out-rate him if they played sufficient time forward, it is a very strong element of his CV. You will see this if he is traded.

 

[Mr Meow]

Hopper, if he stays mainly fit over the next 5 years will be a very important part of bedding in our new developing midfielders. He, Steely Green and Kaleb Smith(keep an eye on how that pair progress) cost picks 8 & 34. But that is only an over payment because Richmond finished below where they and everyone else expected them to in 2023.

The critical part of all this as North found out is you don't want your strong mature mids collapsing with injury while the young guys are developing. Hopefully Hopper gets a good run at it and produces near his best footy, he is a bloody good player.

On Bolton it is worth saying this. In 2024 so far he is the number 1 player in the AFL defined as a mid-forward. Admittedly not too many of them are on fire this year and he is down on recent seasons, but he has been playing in a non-existent midfield and totally unstable forward line this year. His record speaks for itself. He was the number 1 mid-forward 2023. Number 1 2022. In 2020 & 2021 he was defined as a midfielder. So he has spent all of the last 3 seasons as the highest rated mid-forward in the AFL. Regardless of the fact some strong mids would out-rate him if they played sufficient time forward, it is a very strong element of his CV. You will see this if he is traded.

The thing is so many teams just use midfielder and forwards, that don't spend enough time in either part of the ground to receive dual-classification. I haven't looked into it but it wouldn't surprise me if the depth and quality of mid/forwards he has to compete with isn't high. But I agree that Bolton, even slightly down on form, is still elite. I'd argue that even in a weak team he should always be in the AA conversation, but only because his potential is so high.

He could be top 5 in the league for a few years type good. He hasn't quite pushed there yet. Maybe in a dominant team he could.

 

[Footy Smarts]

But then they shouldn't have picked up Hopper at the very least. He's dead weight, and cost a bit.

The Taranto and Hopper acquisitions have been a debacle.

If they get picks that finish up at 20 for Baker and 10+15 for Bolton they'll have just turned around and traded out more valuable players (Bolton > Taranto and Baker > Hopper) of a similar age. And they'll get back less than what they initially gave up for Taranto and Hopper (that was pick 8, 14, 22 and 34).

It would be the ultimate admission of failure and yet probably the right thing to do at this point.

 

[ChairmanZia]

Oh my. Some people are just not willing to learn.

So what's there to learn, we are arguing over names, the same type of people who came up with those names are trying to lecture us to not use it.