Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

Who has the better future prospects?

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Meteoric Rise said:
Hopper, if he stays mainly fit over the next 5 years will be a very important part of bedding in our new developing midfielders. He, Steely Green and Kaleb Smith(keep an eye on how that pair progress) cost picks 8 & 34. But that is only an over payment because Richmond finished below where they and everyone else expected them to in 2023.

The critical part of all this as North found out is you don't want your strong mature mids collapsing with injury while the young guys are developing. Hopefully Hopper gets a good run at it and produces near his best footy, he is a bloody good player.

On Bolton it is worth saying this. In 2024 so far he is the number 1 player in the AFL defined as a mid-forward. Admittedly not too many of them are on fire this year and he is down on recent seasons, but he has been playing in a non-existent midfield and totally unstable forward line this year. His record speaks for itself. He was the number 1 mid-forward 2023. Number 1 2022. In 2020 & 2021 he was defined as a midfielder. So he has spent all of the last 3 seasons as the highest rated mid-forward in the AFL. Regardless of the fact some strong mids would out-rate him if they played sufficient time forward, it is a very strong element of his CV. You will see this if he is traded.
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The thing is so many teams just use midfielder and forwards, that don't spend enough time in either part of the ground to receive dual-classification. I haven't looked into it but it wouldn't surprise me if the depth and quality of mid/forwards he has to compete with isn't high. But I agree that Bolton, even slightly down on form, is still elite. I'd argue that even in a weak team he should always be in the AA conversation, but only because his potential is so high.

He could be top 5 in the league for a few years type good. He hasn't quite pushed there yet. Maybe in a dominant team he could.
 
Mr Meow said:
But then they shouldn't have picked up Hopper at the very least. He's dead weight, and cost a bit.
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The Taranto and Hopper acquisitions have been a debacle.

If they get picks that finish up at 20 for Baker and 10+15 for Bolton they'll have just turned around and traded out more valuable players (Bolton > Taranto and Baker > Hopper) of a similar age. And they'll get back less than what they initially gave up for Taranto and Hopper (that was pick 8, 14, 22 and 34).

It would be the ultimate admission of failure and yet probably the right thing to do at this point.
 

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ChairmanZia said:
So what's there to learn, we are arguing over names, the same type of people who came up with those names are trying to lecture us to not use it.
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No, Aboriginal people are telling you what word is offensive and with good reason and you refuse to listen.
 
In 2004, Richmond had 5 top 20 draft picks.

Deledio
Tambling
Meyer
Pattison
Polo

In 2005, they picked Jarred Oakleigh-Nicholls with Pick 8.

For every Cotchin and Martin, there's been a Conca and Tambling.

With Tassie joining the league, there's going to be stacks of compromised drafts so the Tigers are probably only going to have two swings at it and last time they had about 8 goes at it.
 
Saint said:
In 2004, Richmond had 5 top 20 draft picks.

Deledio
Tambling
Meyer
Pattison
Polo

In 2005, they picked Jarred Oakleigh-Nicholls with Pick 8.

For every Cotchin and Martin, there's been a Conca and Tambling.

With Tassie joining the league, there's going to be stacks of compromised drafts so the Tigers are probably only going to have two swings at it and last time they had about 8 goes at it.
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In 2004 guess how many full time recruiters Richmond employed?
 

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Meteoric Rise said:
In 2004 guess how many full time recruiters Richmond employed?
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dunno but the shit sucking you are doing now would suggest you still havent figured it out and need more especially if Hopper, Taranto and Sonsie are the best they can do.

GO Catters
 
Ricky Vaughn said:
49?
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dazbroncos said:
dunno but the shit sucking you are doing now would suggest you still havent figured it out and need more especially if Hopper, Taranto and Sonsie are the best they can do.

GO Catters
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Lol some wounds take a while to heal.

But finals scars are permanent. Never change Cats.

And by the way Saint the correct answer is zero. Not even sure Richmond had any dedicated part-time recruiting staff in 2004. So the errors made then are not going to relate in any way to Richmond's modern recruiting, sadly for opposition fans. But the small matter of a triple Premiership dynasty in the intervening period sort of told us that anyway. :)
 
Meteoric Rise said:
Lol some wounds take a while to heal.

But finals scars are permanent. Never change Cats.

And by the way Saint the correct answer is zero. Not even sure Richmond had any dedicated part-time recruiting staff in 2004. So the errors made then are not going to relate in any way to Richmond's modern recruiting, sadly for opposition fans. But the small matter of a triple Premiership dynasty in the intervening period sort of told us that anyway. :)
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Was it 49?
 
So they're now hitting every time?

Here's the top 20 picks from the Tiges in the last 10 years.

Ben Lennon
Corey Ellis
Daniel Rioli
Jack Higgins
Callum Coleman-Jones
Riley Collier Dawkins
Josh Gibcus
Tom Brown

Is there still no recruiting team at Richmond?
 
Saint said:
So they're now hitting every time?

Here's the top 20 picks from the Tiges in the last 10 years.

Ben Lennon
Corey Ellis
Daniel Rioli
Jack Higgins
Callum Coleman-Jones
Riley Collier Dawkins
Josh Gibcus
Tom Brown

Is there still no recruiting team at Richmond?
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And out of those Gibcus is the only top 10 pick at 9.
 
Saint said:
So they're now hitting every time?

Here's the top 20 picks from the Tiges in the last 10 years.

Ben Lennon
Corey Ellis
Daniel Rioli
Jack Higgins
Callum Coleman-Jones
Riley Collier Dawkins
Josh Gibcus
Tom Brown

Is there still no recruiting team at Richmond?
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Although I'm not sure if an Essendon person should be be hanging shit. From the last 10 years your best top 20 are out of Langford and Parish. Maybe McGrath.
 
Grrr said:
Richmond recruiters are so bad that we won 3 Premierships, how did that happen.
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It's pretty simple. The gun recruits were the 2006-2009 drafts. Reiwoldt, Edwards, Cotchin, Rance, Martin and Grimes across just 4 drafts is exceptional. But that's 15 years ago now.

Add in Prestia traded in and Lynch for free and that's enough guns that you're going to be a good team at the very least.

2010-2017 drafts were hit and miss with a lot of early picks through that period. Enough hits to complement those guns to produce a quality team (Vlastuin, Bolton, Balta and Rioli the best ones). But not enough to replace them. If you'd hit with some of Conca, Lennon, Ellis x2, Coleman-Jones, Higgins (been able to keep him) then you'd still be a good team.

Recruiting since 2018 looks dire. 6 drafts where right now you can't point to anyone likely to even be a good player let alone a star. That 6 year hole is why you're looking at trading out players to fully rebuild the list.
 
Footy Smarts said:
It's pretty simple. The gun recruits were the 2006-2009 drafts. Reiwoldt, Edwards, Cotchin, Rance, Martin and Grimes across just 4 drafts is exceptional. But that's 15 years ago now.

Add in Prestia traded in and Lynch for free and that's enough guns that you're going to be a good team at the very least.

2010-2017 drafts were hit and miss with a lot of early picks through that period. Enough hits to complement those guns to produce a quality team (Vlastuin, Bolton, Balta and Rioli the best ones). But not enough to replace them. If you'd hit with some of Conca, Lennon, Ellis x2, Coleman-Jones, Higgins (been able to keep him) then you'd still be a good team.

Recruiting since 2018 looks dire. 6 drafts where right now you can't point to anyone likely to even be a good player let alone a star. That 6 year hole is why you're looking at trading out players to fully rebuild the list.
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We certainly missed a lot of early draft picks for a few years prior to our premiership years, but of late not to bad. The notion that Richmond sold the farm last few years is overblown, imagine our midfield without Hopper and Taranto. You need tough bodies in there as Geelong found out, what a difference Danger makes. Dow was our senior mid for much of the first half of the year, and he's just hanging on. Young draft kids would have taken a hammering.

Last time we went to the draft with a decent hand we picked Gibcus who was going to be star but for injuries. Brown at 17, who after shaking injuries has played every game this year and has some great attributes. Sonsie at 28 looked like a steal early on but for some reason has gone backwards. Banks is going okay, Clarke ACL. Since then low draft pics, but there is some talent there. It's hard with our injury run, we have had 14-16 on our injury list for most of the season, so it's hard to assess where players are at, 9 of those are season ending or won't make it back on time.
 
Grrr said:
We certainly missed a lot of early draft picks for a few years prior to our premiership years, but of late not to bad. The notion that Richmond sold the farm last few years is overblown, imagine our midfield without Hopper and Taranto. You need tough bodies in there as Geelong found out, what a difference Danger makes. Dow was our senior mid for much of the first half of the year, and he's just hanging on. Young draft kids would have taken a hammering.

Last time we went to the draft with a decent hand we picked Gibcus who was going to be star but for injuries. Brown at 17, who after shaking injuries has played every game this year and has some great attributes. Sonsie at 28 looked like a steal early on but for some reason has gone backwards. Banks is going okay, Clarke ACL. Since then low draft pics, but there is some talent there. It's hard with our injury run, we have had 14-16 on our injury list for most of the season, so it's hard to assess where players are at, 9 of those are season ending or won't make it back on time.
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We're doing similar in reverse order. We drafted and are now looking to add mature trade ins. You found trade ins and are now looking to draft around them. Tomaeto tomahto on the strategy.

The question should be execution of the strategy though
 

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Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

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