List Mgmt. “It’s a form of tanking” the Richmond rebuild

[Fadge]

And if Geelong had beaten Richmond in 2020 would it still be weak. It's sort of irrelevant if it is a weak era or not, you can only play the sides around, which makes the other including Geelong, weaker than Richmond.

Geelong's 2020 team was about the 11th strongest team they've fielded since the turn of the century.

So the answer would be yes, and Geelong supporters would be amongst the first to agree.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That's a horribly fair description. You need to warn me before posting something so reasonable.

Most footy fans who follow the game closely understand that of the 20 odd 1-4 year players(ie 1-4 years out of their draft year) on the list at any given point, once you remove any highly talented or already more or less proven players, only around 25% of the rest are making it to the 1-200 game range. Your 2022 flag team had at least Bews, O'Connor, Close, Stengle, Stanley, Z Guthrie, Parfitt that would have been in that category to the best of my knowledge. Our flag teams were full of such players who didn't look likely flag level players until at least 4 years out of their draft years... Nankervis, Townsend, Lambert, Pickett, Soldo, Astbury, Grimes, Houli, Grigg, Short, Broad, McIntosh, Edwards and several others gave absolutely no clue of what was to come in their first 2 years out of their draft year, Castagna, Butler, Baker.

With these players you just can't tell until they get a few years in and get a good run at it in a preferred role - or they get cut. They don't tend to blossom into absolute top level players, but you can defiitely get some very high quality careers, as the above lists show. Richmond will definitely be sitting on some of these sleepers right now, possibly more than most clubs due to the way Richmond recruits and develops its players, and a very high rate of injuries, especially in 2024.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Geelong's 2020 team was about the 11th strongest team they've fielded since the turn of the century.

So the answer would be yes, and Geelong supporters would be amongst the first to agree.

Geelong's 11th strongest team this century magically produced it's equal 6th strongest result, a controversial "expert" claims.

 

[KissKiss]

I remember when Melbourne got the two best youngsters in the draft and we had to settle for some kid called Dusty at pick 3.

Point being it's all a lottery at this stage.

Completely. Higher picks just give you slightly better odds at the lottery. They are nice to have the choice you want (or to target the role you want the lottery shot at)

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You listed the core of your next dynasty team in an earlier post - Taranto, Hopper, Balta, Gibcus, Brown, Rioli, Mandela and Campbell...

And I have only now stopped laughing.

You were fortunate enough to take advantage of the weakest era in the history of the game a few years back, but do Richmond plan to move to the EDFL or similar competition?

You mean of course we were fortunate enough to have a team good enough to record the greatest combined Grand Final percentage of any team in history. Ie, good enough to make the other 17 AFL teams look like the weakest bunch in history.

 

[Fadge]

You mean of course we were fortunate enough to have a team good enough to record the greatest combined Grand Final percentage of any team in history. Ie, good enough to make the other 17 AFL teams look like the weakest bunch in history.

The other 17 teams looked like the weakest bunch in history, simply because they were.

Geelong's 11th best team since the turn of the century in 2020.

You were beaten by Collingwood's 8th best team since the turn of the century in 2018.

Adelaide popped in for a single Grand Final appearance, with barely a finals win outside of that.

GWS had some stars but always struggled for consistency as a team.

Brisbane who had immediately jumped from a team who had won 10 games in total across two seasons in 2017/18.

Port?

Hmmmm...

 

[Grrr]

Geelong's 2020 team was about the 11th strongest team they've fielded since the turn of the century.

So the answer would be yes, and Geelong supporters would be amongst the first to agree.

Sort of pointless. Doesn't diminish the 3 flags we just one one iota. Brisbane's flag didn't mean much, or Collingwood's from a few years back?

 

[Footy Smarts]

Sort of pointless. Doesn't diminish the 3 flags we just one one iota. Brisbane's flag didn't mean much, or Collingwood's from a few years back?

Yeah it doesn't diminish it at all.

I do look at our 2017-2020 teams and compare them to 2007-2013 and 2021-2022 and wonder how we were so competitive.

But who cares. Pretty sure 2007 and 2022 were shit years apart from us. The dominant grand finals were probably the most enjoyable.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Do you think a team would trade up from 12 + 14 to get pick 3 if there were't going to be elite players available at 3(or 4)? Your trouble is it was a 2 sided transaction, so it proves nothing either way.

You are making unnsupported claims and dressing them up as fact.

You always have to pay a premium to move up the draft compared to down the draft, and the one holding the cards and determining that worth is only going to move back if pick 3 is not going to land an elite player.

12+14 for 3 will always be a win as you will likely have a better player, but the likelihood of there being a situation someone trades pick 3 for pick 12+14 knowing that there is 6-7 elite players they are missing out on is next to none.

The reality is that you are probably getting a slightly better player which makes it still worth it for the team giving up pick 12+14, but almost next to no chance they are considered an elite bunch given the willingness to drop 3, which still makes it ok for the team giving up 3 for 12+14.

I am simply pointing out the idea there is an elite 6-7 is just about no chance of being real with this scenario as pick 3 wouldn’t be on the table for 12-14.

The win for WCE is two good players at the expense of a likely slightly better player, where as Carlton get one slightly better player.

The idea there is an elite bunch goes way out the window with this scenario

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The other 17 teams looked like the weakest bunch in history, simply because they were.

Geelong's 11th best team since the turn of the century in 2020.

You were beaten by Collingwood's 8th best team since the turn of the century in 2018.

Adelaide popped in for a single Grand Final appearance, with barely a finals win outside of that.

GWS had some stars but always struggled for consistency as a team.

Brisbane who had immediately jumped from a team who had won 10 games in total across two seasons in 2017/18.

Port?

Hmmmm...

Same controversial "expert" now claims the Collingwood team that achieved its 3rd best result this century is their 8th best team this century in order to make his extremely dubious theory add up.

But wait, there will be more. He will no doubt now confirm his previously espoused view that zero Grand Final Bulldogs circa 2008-10 was a 10 goal better team than Richmond's 3 flag dynasty team. Because if that is wrong, the rest of his theory doesn't add up. Damned peer reviews.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

What part of ‘he’s not available to anyone ther than the Lions’ do you not understand?

You didn’t answer the question, the question is “ are Richmond getting the best player in this years crop with pick 1?”Yes or no?

 

[Dr Tigris]

Pity this thread has gone down the troll route. It was looking like being a good discussion of how the Tigers are building a list.

Anyway, to a modest list of reasonably talented younger guys the Tigers are going to add a lot of higher end talent this year and next (+ 2026 in all likelihood). If the currently listed young guys live up to their potential the tigers have a solid core to build on. Nothing certain, but it's a reasonable start.

A good group of mature, and maturing players as well. So hopefully good protection for the kids + good role models = faster and better development.

A lot can go wrong, but maybe a Vish shaped rebuild

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You always have to pay a premium to move up the draft compared to down the draft, and the one holding the cards and determining that worth is only going to move back if pick 3 is not going to land an elite player.

12+14 for 3 will always be a win as you will likely have a better player, but the likelihood of there being a situation someone trades pick 3 for pick 12+14 knowing that there is 6-7 elite players they are missing out on is next to none.

The reality is that you are probably getting a slightly better player which makes it still worth it for the team giving up pick 12+14, but almost next to no chance they are considered an elite bunch given the willingness to drop 3, which still makes it ok for the team giving up 3 for 12+14.

I am simply pointing out the idea there is an elite 6-7 is just about no chance of being real with this scenario as pick 3 wouldn’t be on the table for 12-14.

The win for WCE is two good players at the expense of a likely slightly better player, where as Carlton get one slightly better player.

The idea there is an elite bunch goes way out the window with this scenario

The trouble with what you are posting is it is way out of step with what the informed majority is saying.

The 2 blokes on Gettable for eg have been saying all year there are up to 6-7 players who could justifiably go pick 1 in most drafts. I have no idea as I have hardly watched the prospects, but those who are watching seem to be tipping this draft as being something like the best elements of the 2017(30+ depth) & 2018(strong top dozen) drafts rolled into one draft. And recruiters & List Managers I have heard interviewed seem to be confirming this is also their view. You could be right but you are out of step with a lot of people whose business it is to know.

 

[Daka]

Richmond are following in the footsteps of North Melbourne having cut too hard, and have the potential to be historically bad in 2025.

While most think the Pick 3 trade was bad, at least West Coast is trying to become competitive by signing experienced players.

Who have we cut? the players wanted to leave, yes some of them were in contract but no point keeping players that don't want to be here we made the best out of a bad situation & got good value for the players. North Melbourne delisted best 22 players like Brent Harvey, bit different.

 

[Rich01]

You listed the core of your next dynasty team in an earlier post - Taranto, Hopper, Balta, Gibcus, Brown, Rioli, Mandela and Campbell...

And I have only now stopped laughing.

You were fortunate enough to take advantage of the weakest era in the history of the game a few years back, but do Richmond plan to move to the EDFL or similar competition?

To be fair the comp has been bog ordinary since 2020.
It’s got worse since then.

 

[Fadge]

To be fair the comp has been bog ordinary since 2020.
It’s got worse since then.

Quite amazing how the dynasty team prior to 2021 hasn't been able to win a final since then, isn't it?

 

[Partridge]

And if Geelong had beaten Richmond in 2020 would it still be weak. It's sort of irrelevant if it is a weak era or not, you can only play the sides around, which makes the other including Geelong, weaker than Richmond.

It's remarkable how when a year (or era) is deemed to be "weak", the team that person who offers that opinion follows never seems to win the flag in that chosen timeframe. No doubt nothing more than a coincidence.

I'd like to know why any given year is "weak", who says so, and finally and most awkwardly - prove it.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Quite amazing how the dynasty team prior to 2021 hasn't been able to win a final since then, isn't it?

A post-dynasty team is not a dynasty team. How may finals did your "super era" teams win 2012-2015? Guess that proves it wasn't a super era once and for all then.

 

[Hamingja]

To be fair the comp has been bog ordinary since 2020.
It’s got worse since then.

The comp has been bog ordinary since 2013 when the GWS and GC drafts started to bite the established teams after having poor access to the draft for a few years.

The 09/10 Cats/Pies/Saints teams would have spifflicated the Richmond 3 peat team.

It's how Geelong have managed to stay up. People say you can't replace Scarlett etc but because of the comp getting progressively weaker we can replace Scarlett with Jack Henry and still finish top 4 most years.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The comp has been bog ordinary since 2013 when the GWS and GC drafts started to bite the established teams after having poor access to the draft for a few years.

The 09/10 Cats/Pies/Saints teams would have spifflicated the Richmond 3 peat team.

It's how Geelong have managed to stay up. People say you can't replace Scarlett etc but because of the comp getting progressively weaker we can replace Scarlett with Jack Henry and still finish top 4 most years.

If those teams were only roughly 10 goals per game max better than circa 2010 Richmond they are not going to be spifflicating any subsequent premier, let alone one who dominated the AFL over a 4 year span and has the highest combined Grand Final percentage of any team in the history of the competition.

 

[Fadge]

It's remarkable how when a year (or era) is deemed to be "weak", the team that person who offers that opinion follows never seems to win the flag in that chosen timeframe. No doubt nothing more than a coincidence.

I'd like to know why any given year is "weak", who says so, and finally and most awkwardly - prove it.

Where do you rank Geelong's 2020 version relative to the other teams you have put on the park since the turn of the century?

The supporters of the teams that regularly contend - Geelong, Sydney and Collingwood - are best placed to assess the strength of the competition at any given point in time.

We can appreciate how strong our own team is during a given year/era, and then we see how they perform relative to the competition.

 

[Fadge]

A post-dynasty team is not a dynasty team. How may finals did your "super era" teams win 2012-2015? Guess that proves it wasn't a super era once and for all then.

If only those teams had an era like we saw between 2017 and 2020 to back up from their super era. They may have not only hung around to win more finals, but also possibly jagged a flag as well.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

If only those teams had an era like we saw between 2017 and 2020 to back up from their super era. They may have not only hung around to win more finals, but also possibly jagged a flag as well.

Yep and if only the Richmond dynasty team had consistent finals failures like Collingwood, Saints and Bulldogs to oppose them in finals....take your stupid shit elsewhere. It is completely irrelevant to the thread discussion and you are just repeating nonsense everyone has read before for the sake of trying to derail a perfectly reasonable thread discussion.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

What Richmond are doing is completely acceptable. Not as if they’ve push the player out for nothing, to tank their performance. They’ve been well rewarded and make sense with the Tassie team on the horizon.

It’s the system that makes the teams have to bottom out to have access to the elite talent, that the bigger problem at play here. Id personally like to see a re-shuffle of how the picks are allocated, to promote teams to be more competitive.

Pick 1 - 6 goes to teams finishing 9-14 (could potentially have an lottery system)
Traditionally to finish in this range teams need to have 8-11 wins, so avoid this type of bottoming out the Richmond will experience.
This would see the top draftees going to a more established system and don’t walk into a club as the #1 player at age 18. Could see circumstances where a Harley Reid type ends up at Fremantle, JHF to the Hawks. This would take some of the pressure of the kids to develop properly. With no 5 year timeline to play finals either, this might eliminate some of the “homesickness”

Pick 7-10 goes to the bottom 4 teams.
The drafts tend to open up at this stage, so can avoid players with red flags.
To compensate these team for not having the best pick they all get an additional end of first round selection.
So essentially this year draft position would see
Richmond 7, 19, 23
North 8, 20, 24
WC 9, 21, 25
Adel 10, 22, 26.
With the second round onwards reverting to ladder position.

This essentially gives all bottom 4 sides three pick inside the first 26, to round their overall team out. They’d be able to trade for decent established players without damaging their draft hand completely, while also being in the best position for F/S / Academy pick upgrade.

With teams playing in the finals, getting their selections as their eliminated. With no Free Agency to affect the top 10 any year.

Future picks would be a highly valued, with anyone viewed that could finish outside the 8 hold a potentially valuable asset. This would also give bottom 4 side some protection as they’d only lose a pick between 7-10 not the first overall selection.
It would take away some of the stigma with father sons, as it’s not having such a profound affect on the bottom teams draft results, with a team like Collingwood playing in last years GF, now holding pick 6.

Team could realistically have a two year down period, pick up a Sheezel and Mac Andrews type and basically done a mini rebuild on the back of two 10 win seasons. I think it would make for far better viewing.

 

[Rich01]

Quite amazing how the dynasty team prior to 2021 hasn't been able to win a final since then, isn't it?

Not really. They won three flags then paid the price through equalisation.
The fact that sides haven’t been able to go back to back and we have seen the 21 premiers decline, 22 and 23 premiers not make the finals the next year is testament to this.

But we digress from the topic of this thread.