Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[PhatBoy]

You're not my mate, and what's cricket got to do with this discussion. Or any mention of Bradman at all?

Ali lost a few fights especially late in his career, so does that mean I think he wasn't a star boxer?

If you think Stewart was in the very best defenders in the comp this season that's great. I don't. Especially in the second half of the year. But yes it has something to do with "lunch money". Very astute observation.

Ok, mate.

 

[PhatBoy]

FWIW I do subscribe to the notion that there aren’t that many ‘stars’ in the competition but even if there are, say, 4 per team that works out to 72.

And supporters of their teams claiming that their teams have a handful of them are generally doing it from a place of reason. Ok so in our case three of the obvious candidates, Dangerfield, Stewart and Cameron didn’t have their best seasons: who the hell cares. One of them still had an excellent season be almost any measure. The other two at various stages were still very good, one of them was building towards something really fantastic, probably a 70-80 goal season that seemed to get hamstrung by a bizarre incident with one of his own teammates, though his form had plateaued a fraction by that stage anyway. Dangerfield had been still giving excellent output more often than not until he smashed his ribs.

The point about Bradman - and how you can’t work this out is anyone’s guess (you don’t have to have mentioned someone for metaphor about them to apply) - is that people can still rate someone, and go into bat for them, and defend them, and justify their stance on them even when they have had a legitimately down period, when that down period is a very small exception stacked up against a very large rule.

The essence of the discussion was about how there aren’t nearly as many stars in most teams as people think there are and you brought up a series of names of Geelong players that you seem to think our fans are overrating or who may not even be stars anymore.

My point is that we aren’t overrating them at all. We aren’t oblivious to blokes having quiet games over the space of a couple of weeks or a month, or guys being 10 per cent down on normal output or a bit inconsistent at a certain period. But let them be that. Wait until they’ve been that for a year. Then maybe they aren’t what they used to be.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Under 18% of players who debut play 100 games. So if you say not playing 100 games makes them a spud 15 spuds is about what you would expect.

If a small player hasn't locked themselves in the best 22 after 3 years and a tall player after 4-5 years their odds are far worse than average. Guys like Dow, Ralphsmith, Miller, Mansell, Koschitzke, Cumberland and Rioli Jnr are exceedingly unlikely to make it in any meaningful way.

Hmmm …. Dow, Sonsie, Clarke, Banks and Brown were all taken 18-30. Gibcus top-10.

Here is the % of players top-10 to play 100 games and 18-30 to play 100:

2010: 80% / 54%
2011: 60% / 31%
2012: 80% / 31%
2013: 60% / 85%
2014: 50% / 46%
2015: 70% / 54% (I’ve counted McKay and Fiorini who are on 93 and 71 and still playing)

So it looks likely 18% won’t hold true for those selections.

Then even looking at picks in the 40’s which Richmond has 7: McAuliffe, Fawcett, Cumberland, Ross, Ryan and Smith and Ralphsmith, here is % to have played 100+

2009: 30%
2010: 30%
2011: 30%
2012: 40%
2013: 40%
2014: 40%
2015: 20%
2016: 40% (I’ve included Esava and Darcy Cameron)

Again 18% doesn’t look like holding.

Then we have a truckload of 2nd and 3rd rounders in next years draft … so with trade ups likely to take another 4 x players in the top-30.

So yeah, I don’t think Richmond would be overly concerned with a shortage of likely 100-game youngsters. Your 18% number is clearly not relevant for Richmond.


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[Caligo]

$700k is not a big salary from 2025 onwards when the average salary will be $525k. Of course if he can’t get fit it’ll be overs, but $700k in a $15m salary cap isn’t going to be a big deal. Worst case he’d be worth average wage of $525k anyway, so it’s $175k per season overs as a worst case - hardly a big problem.

If he can get more luck with injury and return to 2019-2021 output $700k will be a bargain, so we will wait and see.


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Now do his price in draft capital.

 

[Grrr]

He'll have to be very good to justify pick 8 plus a 2nd rounder and a 7 year deal. That's possible although given his form and fitness issues unlikely.

But even if he ends up playing decent footy for Richmond the real issue is that getting him and Taranto was massive overkill in the one area. Taranto, Hopper and Prestia is already close to too many midfielders lacking versatility. It'll make it tough for guys like Sonsie, Dow, Ross, etc to get any time in the middle which looks like their ultimate position. It means guys like Bolton, Baker, Daniel Rioli, etc who could become elite mids are forced to play less time in there to fit another vanilla inside player.

Meanwhile your key position stocks look dire. You're completely reliant on an ageing, injury prone Lynch. You've got 1 good KPP coming into their prime (Balta) and 1 talented, injury prone kid who is likely 2 years from seriously contributing if injury and talent let him make it. The rest are C graders at best (Young, Miller, Koschitzke) or speculative picks who are very unlikely to ever make it.

Taranto and Hopper might individually look like ok trades. But together it always liked way too much in the one area of the ground.

As I said massive overs is a maybe. We paid pick 6 to get Prestia, that was well worth it even though at the time everyone on this forum including many on our own site said we were bent over.

Last 20 years at pick 8, R.Clarke, J Meeson, J Oakleigh Nichols, B Reid, L Henderson, T. Vickery, J Butcher, S Mayes, L McDonald, P Wright, C Ah Chee, G Logue, N Coffield, T Thomas, C Serong, N Cox, J Amiss, J Clark, D Curtin. How many of them are stars.

Hopper is a good solid player, better before his injuries when he won GWS's best and fairest. He may stay a good player or maybe he will have a cracking preseason, his first in a few years.

You are grasping at straws a bit with the Bolton, Baker, Dan Rioli elite mid argument. Rioli has never been anywhere near the midfield, and is a pretty good forward and very good half back. Nobody, even on the Richmond board has suggested him ever near the midfield. Baker has played midfield and has done okay at times, but he is too small and gets found out against bigger bodies, so that experiment finished before Tarnato and Hopper arrived. Bolton is a very good mid, but he is also a fair small forward, so ideally you want to play him a bit like Dusty, where you need him.

Cotchin has gone, so Dow or whoever is playing best will come in. Might be Sonsie, the new kid McAuliffe looks ready to go size wise and is a hard nut so he might surprise.

How can you rate Young a C grader when he in his first year of real footy, his 4th in total at any level, can hold down full back and after 8 games was second behind Weitering for the best one on one tall defensive back in the comp. Miller is a back who has had to play forward ruck the last two year, make or break this year, and Kosinkski is going to be played how Max Rooke and Cam Mooney was to your Geelong Premiership sides, a hard nut who can make a contest. Yes we are in need of another forward, but they don't fall off trees and Lynch is not dead just yet. And the injury prone Gibcus has had one injury, a serious hamstring, does not make him injury prone just yet.

You are writing your own script the way you want things to pan out. Must be nice to be so knowledgable about other teams.

 

[Mr Meow]

As I said massive overs is a maybe. We paid pick 6 to get Prestia, that was well worth it even though at the time everyone on this forum including many on our own site said we were bent over.

at pick 8, R.Clarke, J Meeson, J Oakleigh Nichols, B Reid, L Henderson, T. Vickery, J Butcher, S Mayes, L McDonald, P Wright, C Ah Chee, G Logue, N Coffield, T Thomas, C Serong, N Cox, J Amiss, J Clark, D Curtin. How many of them are stars.

Hopper is a good solid player, better before his injuries when he won GWS's best and fairest. He may stay a good player or maybe he will have a cracking preseason, his first in a few years, and really have a good year.

You are grasping at straws a bit with the Bolton, Baker, Dan Rioli elite mid argument. Rioli has never been anywhere near the midfield, and is a pretty good forward and very good half back. Nobody, even on the Richmond board has suggested him ever near the midfield. Baker has played midfield and has done okay at times, but he is too small and gets found out against bigger bodies, so that experiment finished before Tarnato and Hopper arrived. Bolton is a very good mid, but he is also a fair small forward, so ideally you want to play him a bit like Dusty, where you need him.

Cotchin has gone, so Dow or whoever is playing best will come in. Might be Sonsie, the new kid McAuliffe looks ready to go size wise and is a hard nut so he might surprise.

How can you rate Young a C grader when he in his first year of real footy, his 4th in total at any level, can hold down full back and after 8 games was second behind Weitering for the best one on one tall defensive back in the comp. Miller is a back who has had to play forward ruck the last two year, make or break this year, and Kosinkski is going to be played how Max Rooke and Cam Mooney was to your Geelong Premiership sides, a hard nut who can make a contest. Yes we are in need of another forward, but they don't fall off trees and Lynch is not dead just yet. And the injury prone Gibcus has had one injury, a serious hamstring, does not make him injury prone just yet.

You are writing your own script the way you want things to pan out. Must be nice to be so knowledgable about other teams.

Kozzy would be the pick up of the season if he matches Mooney output. Mooney scored 165 goals 2007-2009 and was quite a good utility before that.

 

[WilloTree]

LuckPies just won a flag with a key forward trifecta of Mihocek, Cox and Frampton. Demons won a flag with BB and Tom McDonald. You can’t win a flag without a great defence. You can win one without a gun KPF.

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Tom McDonald has had some good years. Kicked 50+ one year from memory. Ben Brown as well.

Anyway, I'd say they are the exceptions, not the rule.

There's a reason Cats went and got Cameron and Richmond with Lynch. Hawks had Franklin/Roughhead. Eagles - Kennedy/Darling etc etc etc Why were Sydney paying Buddy so much?

Do Bulldogs win it without Boyd?

 

[Grrr]

Kozzy would be the pick up of the season if he matches Mooney output. Mooney scored 165 goals 2007-2009 and was quite a good utility before that.

I stand corrected, I forget how many goals he actually kicked, I remember him mostly for that physical presence at CHF mainly. Richmond had almost no forward line last year, so any forward that competes and puts him body on the line will be a massive improvement on Miller, Ryan and even Jack. Koschitzke has his detractors/deficiencies but attack on the ball is not one of them.

​

 

[Footy Smarts]

So Hopper was a good trade for a first and second round pick considering they only have an 18% chance of coming good?

Top 8 picks are worth a lot more then the average player.

Reality if it was pick 15 and a 5 year deal that would likely be fine. Pick 8 plus a 2nd rounder and a 7 year deal is significant overs. When it's not an area of need (once you had Taranto) it's flat out crazy.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

It is early days for both these guys at Richmond. But imo the likelihood of these deals looking expensive in hindsight 5 years from now is not strong.

Probably. You can never really predict these things accurately or fairly until several years down the road

The good news for Richmond is you still have plenty of cap space and now draft capital to go after a big fish at the end of next season or trade up and get more picks in next year's first round .

Plenty of options for the Tiges going forwards on how to bolster your list.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Now do his price in draft capital.

Hard to judge. About 60% of players taken 6-10 play 100 games. But we’d never know who we would have drafted. We gave up a second and got pick back and ended up with Green and Smith, so not too worried about that part of it.

If Hopper remains injury prone the rest of his career it’ll be a fail. If he regains fitness and plays 100-125 games over the next 6-years then it’ll probably be break even based on there being a 40% chance our draftee wouldn’t have played 100 games.

If Richmond wins a flag in the next 6-years and he’s part of the midfield it’s a massive win even if it’s his 30th game for the club.


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[Meteoric Rise]

Kozzy would be the pick up of the season if he matches Mooney output. Mooney scored 165 goals 2007-2009 and was quite a good utility before that.

165 goals in 73 games is not actually an impressively high number for a team's primary key forward who was their main marking target. It works out like a player slotting 50 goals in a 22 game season. What was actually impressive about Mooney statistically in this period is his goal assist stats. When 84 assists are added to his 165 goals you get 249 goals + assists over 73 games at almost 3.4 per game. This is right up there normally amongst the top 5 in the AFL these days, probably top 10 ish at that time. But these were Mooney's only 3 impressive seasons, and it would be difficult not to get some sort of decent return from playing FF for Geelong 2007-09. He got 28 goals + assists in 9 finals over this period, which on the face of it looks impressive. But if you remove his 13 from 2 massive routs against North and Port in the 2007 finals, what is left is 15 from 7 other finals.

I don't think overall anyone would be doing cartwheels if a moderately priced recruit matched Cam Mooney. He finished 11th 17th and 26th for goals per game in his best 3 seasons. Players that level are not actually that difficult to find. The most memorable things Mooney ever did in big games were sadly memorable for the wrong reasons.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Top 8 picks are worth a lot more then the average player.

Reality if it was pick 15 and a 5 year deal that would likely be fine. Pick 8 plus a 2nd rounder and a 7 year deal is significant overs. When it's not an area of need (once you had Taranto) it's flat out crazy.

Multiple midfielders was a massive area of need. You’re thinking too short-term. Let’s say end of 2024 Prestia retires and Martin leaves.

Our 2025 R1 midfield :

TT
Dow
Bolton
Sonsie
Graham??

Imagine TT is injured? We’d be screwed.

TT and Hopper are there for their peak years of football which are 26-31yo. With Prestia and Martin there we can cope with just TT … but post that we are super light on for decent mids.


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[Caligo]

Hard to judge. About 60% of players taken 6-10 play 100 games.

It isn’t hard to judge. You gave up Dan Curtin plus more for Hopper.

The question is whether anyone would take Hopper over Curtin plus more.

It will take a long time to know the answer, but at this moment everyone would go the same way on that trade.

Your final point was excellent though. Doesn't matter how much you overpay for someone if it is a key part of getting a flag. We clearly overpaid for a broken down Burgoyne. Good luck finding any Hawk supporter to complain about that now. If you win a flag nobody will worry about any of this.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Hard to judge. About 60% of players taken 6-10 play 100 games. But we’d never know who we would have drafted. We gave up a second and got pick back and ended up with Green and Smith, so not too worried about that part of it.

If Hopper remains injury prone the rest of his career it’ll be a fail. If he regains fitness and plays 100-125 games over the next 6-years then it’ll probably be break even based on there being a 40% chance our draftee wouldn’t have played 100 games.

If Richmond wins a flag in the next 6-years and he’s part of the midfield it’s a massive win even if it’s his 30th game for the club.


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Richmond wouldn't have given up pick 8 for Hopper if they had known it was going to be pick 8. But they wouldn't have had to. Well, not all of pick 8. GWS would have sent something worthwhile back. The two clubs based the trade on the belief that pick would likely land at around 15. It landed at pick 8 so nice win for GWS. The difference between the value of these two picks is noticeable in quality, but nowhere near justification for the insane amount of column inches focussed on it.

Pick 8's this century:



Pick 15's this century:

 

[Meteoric Rise]

It isn’t hard to judge. You gave up Dan Curtin plus more for Hopper.

The question is whether anyone would take Hopper over Curtin plus more.

It will take a long time to know the answer, but at this moment everyone would go the same way on that trade.

Your final point was excellent though. Doesn't matter how much you overpay for someone if it is a key part of getting a flag. We clearly overpaid for a broken down Burgoyne. Good luck finding any Hawk supporter to complain about that now. If you win a flag nobody will worry about any of this.

This is the heart of it. Smart clubs are not concerned about winning trades. Leave that to the Dodoros and Silvagnis of the world. The smart clubs only concern themselves with building good football teams.

 

[Mr Meow]

165 goals in 73 games is not actually an impressively high number for a team's primary key forward who was their main marking target. It works out like a player slotting 50 goals in a 22 game season. What was actually impressive about Mooney statistically in this period is his goal assist stats. When 84 assists are added to his 165 goals you get 249 goals + assists over 73 games at almost 3.4 per game. This is right up there normally amongst the top 5 in the AFL these days, probably top 10 ish at that time. But these were Mooney's only 3 impressive seasons, and it would be difficult not to get some sort of decent return from playing FF for Geelong 2007-09. He got 28 goals + assists in 9 finals over this period, which on the face of it looks impressive. But if you remove his 13 from 2 massive routs against North and Port in the 2007 finals, what is left is 15 from 7 other finals.

I don't think overall anyone would be doing cartwheels if a moderately priced recruit matched Cam Mooney. He finished 11th 17th and 26th for goals per game in his best 3 seasons. Players that level are not actually that difficult to find. The most memorable things Mooney ever did in big games were sadly memorable for the wrong reasons.

Yeah, sure.

30 goals and 10 goal assists in finals, where he was a forward for 4 seasons, tells us Mooney did alright no matter what caveats you try to throw in.

Hilariously he matched Riewoldt's direct goal contributions in finals, with less finals played as a permanent forward (12 compared to 16 for Riewoldt). Despite Geelong having a combination of Steve Johnson, Chapman, Bartel, young N.Ablett, Podsiadly and Hawkins to kick to during those finals.

I repeat, if Kozzy averages 55 goals a season over the next 3, Richmond fans would be delighted and shocked.

 

[Noidnadroj]

It isn’t hard to judge. You gave up Dan Curtin plus more for Hopper.

The question is whether anyone would take Hopper over Curtin plus more.

It will take a long time to know the answer, but at this moment everyone would go the same way on that trade.

Your final point was excellent though. Doesn't matter how much you overpay for someone if it is a key part of getting a flag. We clearly overpaid for a broken down Burgoyne. Good luck finding any Hawk supporter to complain about that now. If you win a flag nobody will worry about any of this.

It’s important to note that we rolled the dice and lost, and it wasn’t a poor trade at the time. Richmond just lost an EF by a point, and were bringing in TT, Hopper and a fit Dusty. Worst case they’d have been thinking 8th (pick 10), which with all the academy kids etc… would’ve ended up around pick 14. And that’s worst case .. we finish top-4 its pick-18.

Lynch breaks his foot in R5, Gibcus doesn’t play, Hopper is BOG in his second game when we beat Adelaide and gets injured at the end of it … and we know the rest.

So Richmond gave up a future first, we didn’t trade pick-8. We never rated Hopper at pick-8… we rated him probably somewhere worth 12-14, and happily took the chance. So I agree we ended up overpaying in draft collateral … but we didn’t overpay at the time or make a really poor trading decision. You win some, you lose some when trading. And let’s not forget early doors Lever and May looked like a really poor decision by the Demons ..so there’s a lot to still play out.




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[Meteoric Rise]

It’s important to note that we rolled the dice and lost, and it wasn’t a poor trade at the time. Richmond just lost an EF by a point, and were bringing in TT, Hopper and a fit Dusty. Worst case they’d have been thinking 8th (pick 10), which with all the academy kids etc… would’ve ended up around pick 14. And that’s worst case .. we finish top-4 its pick-18.

Lynch breaks his foot in R5, Gibcus doesn’t play, Hopper is BOG in his second game when we beat Adelaide and gets injured at the end of it … and we know the rest.

So Richmond gave up a future first, we didn’t trade pick-8. We never rated Hopper at pick-8… we rated him probably somewhere worth 12-14, and happily took the chance. So I agree we ended up overpaying in draft collateral … but we didn’t overpay at the time or make a really poor trading decision. You win some, you lose some when trading. And let’s not forget early doors Lever and May looked like a really poor decision by the Demons ..so there’s a lot to still play out.




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That is a good point about May and Lever. And also, those guys were on about 6.5% of the salary cap. Hopper and Taranto are on about 4.6% of the salary cap.

 

[Mr Meow]

That is a good point about May and Lever. And also, those guys were on about 6.5% of the salary cap. Hopper and Taranto are on about 4.6% of the salary cap.

You really give up on your ludicrous arguments way too easily these days MR. I see you're just leaving the Mooney thing now.

 

[Caligo]

It’s important to note that we rolled the dice and lost, and it wasn’t a poor trade at the time. Richmond just lost an EF by a point, and were bringing in TT, Hopper and a fit Dusty. Worst case they’d have been thinking 8th (pick 10), which with all the academy kids etc… would’ve ended up around pick 14. And that’s worst case .. we finish top-4 its pick-18.

Lynch breaks his foot in R5, Gibcus doesn’t play, Hopper is BOG in his second game when we beat Adelaide and gets injured at the end of it … and we know the rest.

So Richmond gave up a future first, we didn’t trade pick-8. We never rated Hopper at pick-8… we rated him probably somewhere worth 12-14, and happily took the chance. So I agree we ended up overpaying in draft collateral … but we didn’t overpay at the time or make a really poor trading decision. You win some, you lose some when trading. And let’s not forget early doors Lever and May looked like a really poor decision by the Demons ..so there’s a lot to still play out.




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Oh I agree entirely with that. Sometimes you need to take a bit of a gamble, and it doesn't always come off.

I was just saying I thought you had lost the gamble based on the VERY limited evidence we have so far. These things can't really be known for years.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Oh I agree entirely with that. Sometimes you need to take a bit of a gamble, and it doesn't always come off.

I was just saying I thought you had lost the gamble based on the VERY limited evidence we have so far. These things can't really be known for years.

Where Richmond would really lose from the Hopper trade is if he never reproduces his previous best over the course of his contract. If he spends a good few years at or near his previous best then Richmond will consider the trade justified even though they lost the gamble on the future pick.

 

[Caligo]

Where Richmond would really lose from the Hopper trade is if he never reproduces his previous best over the course of his contract. If he spends a god few years at or near his previous best then Richmond will consider the trade justified even though they lost the gamble on the future pick.

I don't see it that way, but I accept it is a legitimate perspective. For me, Richmond went all in for one last flag. That is how I will see these trades (which is exactly how I saw our trades for Mitchell, JOM and Wingard).

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I don't see it that way, but I accept it is a legitimate perspective. For me, Richmond went all in for one last flag. That is how I will see these trades (which is exactly how I saw our trades for Mitchell, JOM and Wingard).

Hawks list was a bit different to Richmond's. You were trading for players consistently and had not taken so many draft picks. The similarity with Mitchell and O'Meara in particular to the Hopper and Taranto trades is that Hawks, like the Tigers had a gaping hole in their midfield. In your case it was due to the ageing and departures of your great mids S Mitchell, Lewis, and also Hodge to some extent. In Richmond's case read Cotchin, Prestia, Edwards. Teams cannot function without competitive midfields.

Hawthorn's strategy overall was so different to Richmond's though. I don't know if Hawthorn were going "all in for a flag" necessarily by getting O'Meara and T Mitchell, they were possibly just trying to maintain a competitive midfield. Richmond definitely were not going all in for one last flag. They may have been hoping for a spike in performance given the overlap of Riewoldt and Cotchin and Tarrant with the first years of Taranto and Hopper. But that is not the principle reason the latter pair were recruited. They were recruited to help build Richmond's new post dynasty team. I mean pan back and take a clear look at it. Since Richmond's dynasty COMMENCED in 2017(7 drafts ago now) these are the mature players Richmond has recruited costing substantial contracts or draft capital:

Tom Lynch - big area of need given Riewoldt's advancing years
Tim Taranto - urgent need
Jacob Hopper - urgent need
Jacob Koschitzke - urgent need

The only other mature players recruited with previous AFL experience were :

Robbie Tarrant - obvious response to Astbury retiring earlier than expected, there to tide the club over while Balta and Gibcus developed.
Maverick Weller - unsure what the thinking was here but used no draft capital
Matthew Parker - I suspect he was a response to the loss of so many small forwards off the list, Higgins, Butler, Stengle, and D Rioli to defence, cost no draft capital
Sam Naismith - Another freebie, obvious response to losing Soldo from whom Richmond will hope they can get 2 years while our giant basketballers and Ryan develop.

So the club has brought in 8 players from other clubs over 7 draft periods, only the top 3 costing either substantial draft capital


Hawks from when their dynasty commenced:

2013 - McEvoy, Ben Ross

2014 - Frawley, O'Rourke

2015 - Fitzpatrick

2016 - Tom Mitchell, O'Meara, Vickery, Henderson

2017 - Impey

2018 - Minchington, Scrimshaw, Scully, Wingard, Mohr

2019 - Frost, Patton, Hartley


So the Hawks brought in 18 players who had played at other clubs in the 7 years from when their dynasty started. Richmond brought in 8.

The Hawks brought in 12 of those at substantial cost either in draft picks or salary. For Richmond this figure was 3, 4 or 5 depending how you view the Tarrant and Koschitzke acquisitions.

I don't think even Hawthorn were going all in for one last flag by recruiting Mitchell and O'Meara. They were making a sustained attempt at building a successful team largely through free agency and trades, and this ultimately failed. You can see from the above Richmond have largely been trying to build their team through the draft, and have only sought to fill obvious and major needs with trades and/or free agency acquisitions.

If Richmond are true to form, they will trade 2 x rd 1 picks for a major key forward next year if they can, and that will be the end of their major trading acquisitions, though they may try to get a free agent midfielder if a damaging one is available. Apart from that, it will be basically all draft again for the foreseeable future as they will see their list as being up to date.

 

[Noidnadroj]

I don't see it that way, but I accept it is a legitimate perspective. For me, Richmond went all in for one last flag. That is how I will see these trades (which is exactly how I saw our trades for Mitchell, JOM and Wingard).

The difference (I hope …) is that when Hawks went and got Mitchell, JOM, Wingard, they gave away far more draft collateral and one of your most talented kids in Burton, and followed it up with the likes of Tom Phillips. And I may be wrong, but soon after getting those guys in Sicily was perhaps your only highly talented player heading to their peak.

Richmond has 7-8 high quality players aged 24-27yo Hawks just didn’t have. And have also hit the draft hard in 2021 with 5 x top-30 draft picks, and we have another very strong draft hand next year.

So getting TT and Hopper wasn’t an ‘all-in’ play as we’ve been hitting the draft around those trades which Hawks didn’t really do, and they have 6-7 years left.

It was an eye on 2023, and an eye on our midfield from 2025-2029 post Cotchin, Edwards, Prestia and Martin.



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