Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Meteoric Rise]

Funnily enough if you ask us Tigs supporters, they would say the backline is the least of our worries. They mostlty look shaky at times due tot he midfield and to a lesser extent HF lines lack of pressure

Balta has proven to be a very good KPD
Young - despite being new to football showed 1v1 he's actually one of the best stoppers of the 23 season, he should get better
Grimes, agree, it was sad, could bounce back but if not Gibcus should slot in, the other to watch is Bauer.
Rioli, Short, Vlas all elite
Brown is the youngster that is very exciting for us, great size, arguably best kick in the club and should be ready to go

Depth as you mention the obvious issue

Sonsie and Dow will play plenty of football and completely change our midfield dynamic.

The main luxury we have had in our backline that isn't obviously replaced by what exists on the list currently is the 2 problem solvers Grimes and Broad. Highly disciplined defensive minded runners with size and speed, they have been used to play on the most dangerous looking running or speedy forwards. Grimes looks past his best and Broad will be 31 early in the coming season.

You don't have to replace every player precisely to rebuild a great backline, but these guys have been a ready solution to some tricky opponents to match up on.

 

[Morro]

Have you got any decent young(ish) ruck stocks coming through following the trade of Soldo ? (I know Balta can pinch hit there but as you say better off down back)

Nankervis has been a true trencherman for your club but seems prone to injury these days

We have high hopes that Ryan will be a very good no 1 ruck, great size at 206cm, can pinch forward also. His VFL is very good and at AFL level his HTA is excellent, but his core strength is terrible at the moment so gets knocked off his line too easy.

 

[Morro]

The main luxury we have had in our backline that isn't obviously replaced by what exists on the list currently is the 2 problem solvers Grimes and Broad. Highly disciplined defensive minded runners with size and speed, they have been used to play on the most dangerous looking running or speedy forwards. Grimes looks past his best and Broad will be 31 early in the coming season.

You don't have to replace every player precisely to rebuild a great backline, but these guys have been a ready solution to some tricky opponents to match up on.

True, Broady isthe other and despite his age has been extremely durable.

 

[Mr Meow]

Funnily enough if you ask us Tigs supporters, they would say the backline is the least of our worries. They mostlty look shaky at times due tot he midfield and to a lesser extent HF lines lack of pressure

Balta has proven to be a very good KPD
Young - despite being new to football showed 1v1 he's actually one of the best stoppers of the 23 season, he should get better
Grimes, agree, it was sad, could bounce back but if not Gibcus should slot in, the other to watch is Bauer.
Rioli, Short, Vlas all elite
Brown is the youngster that is very exciting for us, great size, arguably best kick in the club and should be ready to go

Depth as you mention the obvious issue

Sonsie and Dow will play plenty of football and completely change our midfield dynamic.

How did a midfield group of Nankervis, Ryan, Taranto, Bolton, Martin, Prestia, Hopper and Ross (with Short at times) have the 4th worst inside 50 differential in the league in 2023? In 2022 their differential had them 4th best (with Martin missing a lot of games).

Sure Bolton/Martin share a mid/forward role and some players missed the odd game, but it's still confusing.

 

[Footy Smarts]

How did a midfield group of Nankervis, Ryan, Taranto, Bolton, Martin, Prestia, Hopper and Ross (with Short at times) have the 4th worst inside 50 differential in the league in 2023? In 2022 their differential had them 4th best (with Martin missing a lot of games).

Sure Bolton/Martin share a mid/forward role and some players missed the odd game, but it's still confusing.

The big question for the tigers is whether last year's midfield struggles was because of lack of cohesion or lack of balance. That midfield clearly hasn't played together much. But there's not much defensive pressure and it looks pretty one-paced. Did the tigers just bring in GWS's midfield issues?

 

[Morro]

How did a midfield group of Nankervis, Ryan, Taranto, Bolton, Martin, Prestia, Hopper and Ross (with Short at times) have the 4th worst inside 50 differential in the league in 2023? In 2022 their differential had them 4th best (with Martin missing a lot of games).

Sure Bolton/Martin share a mid/forward role and some players missed the odd game, but it's still confusing.

If you can tell me, we will both know

I can only assume it was a coaching issue as that is simply too much talent to be collectively so bad.

On paper, our midfield looks so strong, if only we played on paper

 

[Morro]

The big question for the tigers is whether last year's midfield struggles was because of lack of cohesion or lack of balance. That midfield clearly hasn't played together much. But there's not much defensive pressure and it looks pretty one-paced. Did the tigers just bring in GWS's midfield issues?

100% agree with this, the problem IMO was the lack of continuity and balance.

I believe Sonsie and Dow will help fix this.

 

[tiger_tough]

How did a midfield group of Nankervis, Ryan, Taranto, Bolton, Martin, Prestia, Hopper and Ross (with Short at times) have the 4th worst inside 50 differential in the league in 2023? In 2022 their differential had them 4th best (with Martin missing a lot of games).

Sure Bolton/Martin share a mid/forward role and some players missed the odd game, but it's still confusing.

Dimma and Dimma mkII both concentraded far too much on winning the ball back rather than winning it at the source. That only works when you have the cattle all over the field to pull it off like we did from 2017-2020.

Looking forward to seeing how Yze tweaks the stoppages, we needed change there badly. The guys you mentioned should be one of the top handful of midfield groups in the comp.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

How did a midfield group of Nankervis, Ryan, Taranto, Bolton, Martin, Prestia, Hopper and Ross (with Short at times) have the 4th worst inside 50 differential in the league in 2023? In 2022 their differential had them 4th best (with Martin missing a lot of games).

Sure Bolton/Martin share a mid/forward role and some players missed the odd game, but it's still confusing.

The answer to this question will shock many people.

Because the main answer is the subject of a much maligned trade and contract, Mr Jacob Hopper.

In the 8 games he missed or barely played any game time, Richmond's average Inside 50 deficit was around -11 per match.

In the remaining 15 games where he played the whole game or a substantial part of the game, the deficit was less than -1 per match. Even if you take out the 2 surpluses in the Eagles games in which Hopper played, Richmond's deficit in the rest of his games is -2.7 per match. Maybe also take out the North game. The deficit is still only -3.7 per match compared to almost -11 per match when Hopper missed. So the games he missed look to have made a huge difference.

Hopper and Lynch played in the same Richmond team fully fit for exactly about 1.65 matches.

- A draw v Carlton who made a PF. Most agreed Richmond should have won this match.

- A narrow loss to the Dogs (with Lynch and Nankervis carrying very restrictive injuries in the second half,) who finished 9th with a 12-11 record and a percentage of 109.

Who knows how Lynch will return from that diabolical injury, or how many fit games Hopper plays, but the Tigers are bound to benefit if both are fully fit for most of the season. I watched Hopper closely at times last year and he did a lot of uncredited work around stoppages in particular.

 

[Mr Meow]

The answer to this question will shock many people.

Because the main answer is the subject of a much maligned trade and contract, Mr Jacob Hopper.

In the 8 games he missed or barely played any game time, Richmond's average Inside 50 deficit was around -11 per match.

In the remaining 15 games where he played the whole game or a substantial part of the game, the deficit was less than -1 per match. Even if you take out the 2 surpluses in the Eagles games in which Hopper played, Richmond's deficit in the rest of his games is -2.7 per match. Maybe also take out the North game. The deficit is still only -3.7 per match compared to almost -11 per match when Hopper missed. So the games he missed look to have made a huge difference.

Hopper and Lynch played in the same Richmond team fully fit for exactly about 1.65 matches.

- A draw v Carlton who made a PF. Most agreed Richmond should have won this match.

- A narrow loss to the Dogs (with Lynch and Nankervis carrying very restrictive injuries in the second half,) who finished 9th with a 12-11 record and a percentage of 109.

Who knows how Lynch will return from that diabolical injury, or how many fit games Hopper plays, but the Tigers are bound to benefit if both are fully fit for most of the season. I watched Hopper closely at times last year and he did a lot of uncredited work around stoppages in particular.

Interesting, so Hopper is going to save the day.

Our last two best and fairest winners, Stewart and C.Guthrie, only played 1 quarter together in 2023 and were leading the premiers. By your calculations we should get a boost too.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Interesting, so Hopper is going to save the day.

Our last two best and fairest winners, Stewart and C.Guthrie, only played 1 quarter together in 2023 and were leading the premiers. By your calculations we should get a boost too.

You asked about the inside 50 count, not winning games.

Stay weird mate.

 

[Morro]

Interesting, so Hopper is going to save the day.

Our last two best and fairest winners, Stewart and C.Guthrie, only played 1 quarter together in 2023 and were leading the premiers. By your calculations we should get a boost too.

Dude I have loved the banter between you guys, but he stated facts and numbers based on Hopper, you stated past awards, come one man, you better than that.

 

[Mr Meow]

Dude I have loved the banter between you guys, but he stated facts and numbers based on Hopper, you stated past awards, come one man, you better than that.

There's more than a little tongue-in-cheek in my response, I was just extrapolating his optimism to the extreme. Because he signed off by talking about a forward and this had nothing to do with the numbers presented.

Like MR showed, take the WCE and NM games out and Richmond+Hopper was still an improvement, but from a terrible inside 50 differential team to a bad one.

Is he actually the missing piece? We'll find out. As a Tiger I'm yet to be convinced by him.

P.S Geelong's clearance numbers badly suffered with Guthrie missing the year. But we had Selwood gone too, so too many variables. Just as there is for the intricacies of the Tigers midfield dynamic.

 

[The 747]

If you can tell me, we will both know

I can only assume it was a coaching issue as that is simply too much talent to be collectively so bad.

On paper, our midfield looks so strong, if only we played on paper

Sometimes things don't gel. We had Selwood, Dangerfield and Ablett as a midfield and it sucked.

 

[Morro]

There's more than a little tongue-in-cheek in my response, I was just extrapolating his optimism to the extreme. Because he signed off by talking about a forward and this had nothing to do with the numbers presented.

Like MR showed, take the WCE and NM games out and Richmond+Hopper was still an improvement, but from a terrible inside 50 differential team to a bad one.

Is he actually the missing piece? We'll find out. As a Tiger I'm yet to be convinced by him.

P.S Geelong's clearance numbers badly suffered with Guthrie missing the year. But we had Selwood gone too, so too many variables. Just as there is for the intricacies of the Tigers midfield dynamic.

Fair response, my bad.

 

[Morro]

Sometimes things don't gel. We had Selwood, Dangerfield and Ablett as a midfield and it sucked.

Which also makes no sense, but you're right.

I think, like the above group, if they all commit to a specific role and that role is clear, it should work. A mid group has to be willing to sacrifice, they cant all be ball getters all the time.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Geelong seem very old to me and besides DeKoning, their list has no young talent to speak of imo.

 

[Grrr]

Some eerie parallels between Dimma and how Clarko's time at Hawthorn.

Both pushed the envelope by topping up/trading for one last flag push at the expense of building for the future.

It's also hard to deny that Dimma and his personal life did cause some friction and disharmony amongst the Tigers playing group.

Good news is Richmond have got a ripper of a bloke and coach in Yze, it may take a while, but he will get the Tigers up and and about again.

You also have a lot of cap space and a juicy war chest of draft capital to go for a big name or two in this year's draft and trade period.

What is this topping up concept. Richmond last season added 2 players, Taranto and Hopper. Before that the last player we trader for was Tom Lynch, 5 seasons ago. We would be close enough to the least top up club in the league I would be guessing. We grabbed a couple of players this year for next to nothing, Kosi and Naismith.

Taranto won the B&F in a canter, and Hopper is finally injury free so who knows how he will go.

We added 5 pics under 30 the year before and we will have the same number next draft.

We have 5 players between 30 and 32 on our list, not a lot. Geelong have 10 between 30 -35.

 

[Grrr]

Your backline is also a concern to me, Grimes falling over a cliff quickly and more alarming than anyone expected really hurt the Tigers last year.

Hopefully Gibcus (whom I think is a terrific talent) is over his injury concerns and healthy going into 2024.

Would like to see Sonsie get regular games for Richmond too.

I still firmly believe 2024 will be a 'development' year for Richmond, but I have been wrong before.

I think you are right in that we will be trying out quite a lot of players who have been on the edge but weren't getting games under the coaches last season. In any one year if you can cement two or three young players into your side then you are doing well.

But those players in the 24-28 category are not going backwards for any particular reason, so adding young players can often be very beneficial to a side.

An awful lot will be on Tom Lynch's shoulders, because we are thin on the ground for quality tall forwards. You just can't replace a player like Lynch easily.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

What is this topping up concept. Richmond last season added 2 players, Taranto and Hopper. Before that the last player we trader for was Tom Lynch, 5 seasons ago. We would be close enough to the least top up club in the league I would be guessing. We grabbed a couple of players this year for next to nothing, Kosi and Naismith.

Taranto won the B&F in a canter, and Hopper is finally injury free so who knows how he will go.

We added 5 pics under 30 the year before and we will have the same number next draft.

We have 5 players between 30 and 32 on our list, not a lot. Geelong have 10 between 30 -35.

Even Lynch was a free agent not a trade.

So it was the Prestia trade prior to that, unless you count Tarrant, which was very insignificant.

And the Prestia trade ultimately went something like this: Pick 6 36 and 64 for Dion, and the picks that got Richmond Caddy and Jack Graham.

 

[Morro]

Even Lynch was a free agent not a trade.

So it was the Prestia trade prior to that, unless you count Tarrant, which was very insignificant.

And the Prestia trade ultimately went something like this: Pick 6 36 and 64 for Dion, and the picks that got Richmond Caddy and Jack Graham.

There is such a misconception that we traded away our future, its so uneducated.

TT is a gun, has heaps of footy left, should have been AA and won our BnF - Paid fair value
Hopper - over paid based on 23 season, but has so much time left to make it less of an overpayment.

Both probably better than we could have drafted and if 2 players has cost us our future, then the issues were not the trades at all, it was the success we had which cost us early picks. I know what I would prefer.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

There's more than a little tongue-in-cheek in my response, I was just extrapolating his optimism to the extreme. Because he signed off by talking about a forward and this had nothing to do with the numbers presented.

Like MR showed, take the WCE and NM games out and Richmond+Hopper was still an improvement, but from a terrible inside 50 differential team to a bad one.

Is he actually the missing piece? We'll find out. As a Tiger I'm yet to be convinced by him.

P.S Geelong's clearance numbers badly suffered with Guthrie missing the year. But we had Selwood gone too, so too many variables. Just as there is for the intricacies of the Tigers midfield dynamic.

The thing is I took the 3 games v Eagles and North out of the sample to try to level up the with Hopper and without Hopper samples as best I could. And the sample with him in was much much stronger.

If you wanted to then compare the with Hopper/without Eagles+North sample with other clubs, you would need to remove the Eagles and North games from other teams' samples to get a good comparison.

What the without Hopper sample does show though is what Richmond were facing if they had not recruited him as well as Taranto.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Geelong seem very old to me and besides DeKoning, their list has no young talent to speak of imo.

There is a subtle reason that explains why Geelong seem so old.

It is because they are old.

They are starting to get some decent young prospects, and obviously they have some older players who have been excellent. Their trouble is in the 25-29yo sector that drives most of the best teams....

 

[Mr Meow]

The thing is I took the 3 games v Eagles and North out of the sample to try to level up the with Hopper and without Hopper samples as best I could. And the sample with him in was much much stronger.

If you wanted to then compare the with Hopper/without Eagles+North sample with other clubs, you would need to remove the Eagles and North games from other teams' samples to get a good comparison.

What the without Hopper sample does show though is what Richmond were facing if they had not recruited him as well as Taranto.

I just don't get how Richmond added a midfielder who would become BnF and Martin played way more games but they went from top 4 to bottom 4 for the inside 50 differential season-to-season. Okay Prestia dropped off a little but nobody else in there could be accused of being even slightly cooked.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

I just don't get how Richmond added a midfielder who would become BnF and Martin played way more games but they went from top 4 to bottom 4 for the inside 50 differential season-to-season. Okay Prestia dropped off a little but nobody else in there could be accused of being even slightly cooked.

When Geelong fell off the cliff last year, that was very worrying for me.