Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Mr Meow]

When Geelong fell off the cliff last year, that was very worrying for me.

This is a weak attempt even by your standards.

Address the point at hand and if you have no ideas, wait for others.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I just don't get how Richmond added a midfielder who would become BnF and Martin played way more games but they went from top 4 to bottom 4 for the inside 50 differential season-to-season. Okay Prestia dropped off a little but nobody else in there could be accused of being even slightly cooked.

Prestia was down and Dusty was clearly being eased back into footy for the first part of the season after a bad injury and further issues that have been well publicised.

This one I am not going to dig out the isolated figures but I think Tom Lynch makes a massive difference to these figures. With him mainly playing in 2022 Richmond averaged about 57 i50's and conceded around 52 on average. In 2023 with Lynch mainly missing that was reversed to Richmond averaging 52 and the opposition averaging 57.

Our supporters go nuts pulling their hair out because they can't work out why we keep kicking it to Lynch with 2 or 3 opponents to beat. But this is exactly why Richmond do that. Because he is so much better than most at not getting nilled in those contests it allows extra Richmond players behind the ball. So when the opposition clear it under pressure, it is to a surplus of Tiger numbers, thus the higher amount of Richmond i50's. Obviously if Richmond can't set up with that outnumber hovering outside 50 in the forward half, and without Lynch they can't do this so much, this increases the opposition inside 50's as well.

Thus, the 2 seasons figures.

 

[Mr Meow]

Prestia was down and Dusty was clearly being eased back into footy for the first part of the season after a bad injury and further issues that have been well publicised.

This one I am not going to dig out the isolated figures but I think Tom Lynch makes a massive difference to these figures. With him mainly playing in 2022 Richmond averaged about 57 i50's and conceded around 52 on average. In 2023 with Lynch mainly missing that was reversed to Richmond averaging 52 and the opposition averaging 57.

Our supporters go nuts pulling their hair out because they can't work out why we keep kicking it to Lynch with 2 or 3 opponents to beat. But this is exactly why Richmond do that. Because he is so much better than most at not getting nilled in those contests it allows extra Richmond players behind the ball. So when the opposition clear it under pressure, it is to a surplus of Tiger numbers, thus the higher amount of Richmond i50's. Obviously if Richmond can't set up with that outnumber hovering outside 50 in the forward half, and without Lynch they can't do this so much, this increases the opposition inside 50's as well.

Thus, the 2 seasons figures.

Fair enough, I don't mind that theory.

The differential is definitely more nuanced than how prolific the midfield group is.

 

[The 747]

Oh those two are back to ruin this thread like every other thread - just when Morro was having a decent discussion with some Cats fans.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Prestia was down and Dusty was clearly being eased back into footy for the first part of the season after a bad injury and further issues that have been well publicised.

This one I am not going to dig out the isolated figures but I think Tom Lynch makes a massive difference to these figures. With him mainly playing in 2022 Richmond averaged about 57 i50's and conceded around 52 on average. In 2023 with Lynch mainly missing that was reversed to Richmond averaging 52 and the opposition averaging 57.

Our supporters go nuts pulling their hair out because they can't work out why we keep kicking it to Lynch with 2 or 3 opponents to beat. But this is exactly why Richmond do that. Because he is so much better than most at not getting nilled in those contests it allows extra Richmond players behind the ball. So when the opposition clear it under pressure, it is to a surplus of Tiger numbers, thus the higher amount of Richmond i50's. Obviously if Richmond can't set up with that outnumber hovering outside 50 in the forward half, and without Lynch they can't do this so much, this increases the opposition inside 50's as well.

Thus, the 2 seasons figures.

No Lynch also meant we essentially always had Jack in the forward line as well

Traditionally when teams had zoned up well against us we would push either Lynch or Jack onto the wing to either take a mark or break open a pack giving us a quick slingshot to a open attacking half of the ground with either Jack or Lynch isolated for a 1 on 1 in our f50

But it’s not something we could really effectively do last year with our lack of tall timer for most of the year playing with one key forward and one experienced ruck if Jack did happen to push up the ground he didn’t have any tall targets to kick to deep so would kick it towards the corridor to give him time to work back into f50

It makes sense to give it a crack but also one of the riskier kicks to try and pull off with interception almost always resulting with an oppo scoring opportunity in that part of the ground


Ryan showed a few glimpses but he’s still very raw

It’s not exactly a good thing having one player so important to how gameplan and season but hopefully with a new year and a few new tall options on the list we will be able to cover any potential injuries a lot better

 

[Grrr]

Fair enough, I don't mind that theory.

The differential is definitely more nuanced than how prolific the midfield group is.

Our midfield were plodders last year. Taranto and Hopper were added to a list that contained Cotchin and an out of sorts Prestia. Slow.
We had to use both Martin and Bolton in there to get some speed around the ball, and neither are defensive runners so our backline was under a lot of pressure when sides rebounded. When we did win it we had nobody to kick it too as Lynch was out and Jack was finished.

How will that improve this year time will tell. Dow looked very sharp around the ball when he came in so that is one. Might see some other new faces in their with a bit more toe as well. Koschitzke may or may not be much good, but at least he is physical and hits the ball, something we had zero of this year. Gibcus is quality and hopefully Lynch is back.

Richmond were in most games up until the last part of the season when the wheels feel off. I think the players will embrace a new coach, as Hardwick/McQualter had been singing the same tune for a few years. Both Cotchin and Riewoldt said as much in their books.

Everything is nuanced in footy, especially this time of year when we are all backing our own clubs in. Who would have thought the Saints would do what they did at the start of the season. The basics are pretty solid at Richmond still, for another year anyway.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Sometimes things don't gel. We had Selwood, Dangerfield and Ablett as a midfield and it sucked.

Ablett was about to turn 34 when he started back at Geelong. He was never likely to be a gun mid still but he dominated up forward. Not to mention that Danger and Selwood even at their peak could struggle defensively and adding another of the same type didn't look like it would work.

 

[The 747]

Ablett was about to turn 34 when he started back at Geelong. He was never likely to be a gun mid still but he dominated up forward. Not to mention that Danger and Selwood even at their peak could struggle defensively and adding another of the same type didn't look like it would work.

Ablett averaged around 29 disposals a game in his first year with us.

 

[Morro]

I just don't get how Richmond added a midfielder who would become BnF and Martin played way more games but they went from top 4 to bottom 4 for the inside 50 differential season-to-season. Okay Prestia dropped off a little but nobody else in there could be accused of being even slightly cooked.

It became clear pretty quickly that rotating, Cotch, TT, Hopper, Prestia and even Graham was too one paced and realistically, all inside mids. So unbalanced.

We needed to retire Cotch early for a start.

TT, Prestia, Bolton - Not a bad mix
TT, Dusty, Bolton - not a bad mix
Hopper, Prestia, Bolton - not bad either
TT, Hopper, Bolton - not bad

No we can add Dow and hopefully Sonsie, that will help also. We just played too many of the same IMO.

 

[The 747]

It became clear pretty quickly that rotating, Cotch, TT, Hopper, Prestia and even Graham was too one paced and realistically, all inside mids. So unbalanced.

We needed to retire Cotch early for a start.

TT, Prestia, Bolton - Not a bad mix
TT, Dusty, Bolton - not a bad mix
Hopper, Prestia, Bolton - not bad either
TT, Hopper, Bolton - not bad

No we can add Dow and hopefully Sonsie, that will help also. We just played too many of the same IMO.

I think it is very much dependent on how the new coach gels with the playing group - for this year anyway.

 

[Morro]

I think it is very much dependent on how the new coach gels with the playing group - for this year anyway.

No doubt, but if he doesn't get the mix right, it wont matter much.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Ablett averaged around 29 disposals a game in his first year with us.

He still knew how to rack them up and we fed him the ball. But his ball winning ability fell to being a good midfielder not the all-time legend he previously was.

Selwood, Danger and Ablett at their peak would run so much more ball than their opponents defence wouldn't have been that relevant. By 2018 Ablett had slowed down enough that they needed to be able to defend as a group and they couldn't do that. The lack of balance found them out.

Does Richmond have the same problem? There's plenty of ball winning ability in there but not a lot of guys known for their defensive game. Geelong has the opposite problem.

 

[Mr Meow]

2017

Rance 2.5 SI's per game (523rd in the league)
McGovern 4.2 SI's per game (301st)

2012

Taylor 4.2 SI's per game
Scarlett (cooked full back) 3.3 SI's per game
Rance 2.8 per game

Rance was having 2-3 more disposals per game than Taylor/Scarlett that year too.

Imagine Scarlett's numbers at his best in the prolific 2007-2011 teams. Better than Taylor's for sure.

So getting to the most contests and having the most intercepts accounts for a lesser 1v1 defensive ability (because turnovers are king)...except less direct scores are generated with ball in Rance's hand anyway.

 

[Havoc]

I think both Geelong and Richmond have largely the same problem and that is aging KPF's. Riewoldt is gone and Lynch feels like he is on his last legs for Richmond and Hawkins will likely be gone soon and Cameron only has a few years left. For both clubs they have gone from their KPF stocks being a real strength to a real weakness in only a couple of years.

Lynch was a free agent, and Cameron was traded in.. there's no reason why Richmond and Geelong can't go down that path again.

Maybe, but Fly took over at a club that arguably was still in their prime.

On a admittedly small sample size over the last 18 months, I am concerned about the quality and ability of your young players..

I remember this time 2 years ago. You were one of the posters on here calling Collingwood a rabble with dire and bleak future prospects.. similar to what you're saying about us now. When Fly took over.. you certainly weren't saying he was taking over a list still in its prime!

 

[Mr Meow]

If we look ahead to the expected cores of the sides for the next 7 years (minus draft/trade/FA acquisitions):

25 and unders gives you who will be the veterans going forward (yes it's arbitrary but got to draw the line somewhere, 25 is about the midpoint of a long/successful career) and who will form the new core in their prime alongside them.

25 and unders named for Richmond

25 Bolton, Young
24 Balta
23 Ross, Ryan, Kozzy
22 Dow, M.Rioli
21 Gibcus, Banks
20
19
18

Missing out: Miller, Mansell, Cumberland, Coulthard, Ralphsmith, Sonsie, Clark, Green

25 and unders likely for Geelong

25 Miers, Stengle, J.Henry, Z.Guthrie, Close
24
23 De Koning
22 Bruhn
21 Holmes, O.Henry
20 Dempsey
19 Clark

Missing out: Parfitt, Knevitt, Mullin, Neale, Conway, Jeka, Clohesy, O'Sullivan

I'm not sure that Richmond look ahead in their rebuild or that the cupboard is any more full.

 

[Pomsta]

If we look ahead to the expected cores of the sides for the next 7 years (minus draft/trade/FA acquisitions):

25 and unders gives you who will be the veterans going forward (yes it's arbitrary but got to draw the line somewhere, 25 is about the midpoint of a long/successful career) and who will form the new core in their prime alongside them.

25 and unders named for Richmond

25 Bolton, Young
24 Balta
23 Ross, Ryan, Kozzy
22 Dow, M.Rioli
21 Gibcus, Banks
20
19
18

Missing out: Miller, Mansell, Cumberland, Coulthard, Ralphsmith, Sonsie, Clark, Green

25 and unders likely for Geelong

25 Miers, Stengle, J.Henry, Z.Guthrie, Close
24
23 De Koning
22 Bruhn
21 Holmes, O.Henry
20 Dempsey
19 Clark

Missing out: Parfitt, Knevitt, Mullin, Neale, Conway, Jeka, Clohesy, O'Sullivan

I'm not sure that Richmond look ahead in their rebuild or that the cupboard is any more full.

You missed Seth Campbell - 19 who is playing, plus Brown, Bauer and Tresize that have all had a taste of senior football also missed out. Plus you don't know what team that Geelong will play. I'm not that worried about my team and you're not too worried about yours.

Supposedly Essendon fans rate their kids too. All fan bases do.

 

[Mr Meow]

You missed Seth Campbell - 19 who is playing, plus Brown, Bauer and Tresize that have all had a taste of senior football also missed out. Plus you don't know what team that Geelong will play. I'm not that worried about my team and you're not too worried about yours.

Supposedly Essendon fans rate their kids too. All fan bases do.

We'll see.

It's the topic of the thread and can always be avoided by those who aren't interested.

 

[Freomaniac]

But it lead to 4 flags and 6 grand finals over a 15 year stretch - which is a fair chunk of one's life to be satisfied with your team. You're right that 3 grand finals for 3 flags in 4 years is efficient - but it's a whole lot of time in between to barely ever even make finals.

I wouldn't even worry too much. It's very, very rare to have a run like Richmond's from the mid 80's until 2016. It surely won't happen a second time right after one brief period of contending.

Yeah for richmond.... that 1983-2012 period was Brutal. Finals in 1995 and 2001. 1983-1993 I can under stand. 5 finals spots from 1983-1990. only 6 finals spots from 1991-1993.

from 1994-2009, 8 finals spots for 16 sides. 9th in 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2006 and 2008. Turn those 9th placed seasons into 8th placed finals spots, thats 6 more finals Richmond should of played.

Geelong from 1990-1999 at least made a few grand finals.

 

[QuietB]

If we look ahead to the expected cores of the sides for the next 7 years (minus draft/trade/FA acquisitions):

25 and unders gives you who will be the veterans going forward (yes it's arbitrary but got to draw the line somewhere, 25 is about the midpoint of a long/successful career) and who will form the new core in their prime alongside them.

25 and unders named for Richmond

25 Bolton, Young
24 Balta
23 Ross, Ryan, Kozzy
22 Dow, M.Rioli
21 Gibcus, Banks
20
19
18

Missing out: Miller, Mansell, Cumberland, Coulthard, Ralphsmith, Sonsie, Clark, Green

25 and unders likely for Geelong

25 Miers, Stengle, J.Henry, Z.Guthrie, Close
24
23 De Koning
22 Bruhn
21 Holmes, O.Henry
20 Dempsey
19 Clark

Missing out: Parfitt, Knevitt, Mullin, Neale, Conway, Jeka, Clohesy, O'Sullivan

I'm not sure that Richmond look ahead in their rebuild or that the cupboard is any more full.

Richmond and Geelong are screwed.

Have fun

 

[Meteoric Rise]

If we look ahead to the expected cores of the sides for the next 7 years (minus draft/trade/FA acquisitions):

25 and unders gives you who will be the veterans going forward (yes it's arbitrary but got to draw the line somewhere, 25 is about the midpoint of a long/successful career) and who will form the new core in their prime alongside them.

25 and unders named for Richmond

25 Bolton, Young
24 Balta
23 Ross, Ryan, Kozzy
22 Dow, M.Rioli
21 Gibcus, Banks
20
19
18

Missing out: Miller, Mansell, Cumberland, Coulthard, Ralphsmith, Sonsie, Clark, Green

25 and unders likely for Geelong

25 Miers, Stengle, J.Henry, Z.Guthrie, Close
24
23 De Koning
22 Bruhn
21 Holmes, O.Henry
20 Dempsey
19 Clark

Missing out: Parfitt, Knevitt, Mullin, Neale, Conway, Jeka, Clohesy, O'Sullivan

I'm not sure that Richmond look ahead in their rebuild or that the cupboard is any more full.

The thing about this is you are totally ignoring the difference between the 2 clubs 26-27yo's, which of course still have a huge part to play in any rebuild covering the next 7 years.

Richmond

27yrs Hopper
26yrs D Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham


Geelong's comparable list is:

27yrs O'Connor
26yrs Bowes

Richmond probably have 500+ fairly strong future senior games sitting right there, Geelong probably have about 150 less strong future senior games in these age groups.

It is undeniable these age groups play a part in the future prospects of both clubs and Richmond are streets ahead for now.

 

[Obeanie1]

The 2024 draft and trade period for Richmond IMO will be huge.

Based on last years finishing position they currently have picks 6, 25, 26, 39, 44, 44, 62...

They will likely trade out a player or even two. Baker to Freo for arguments sake pick 14ish.

What will they do with 2 1sts, 2 2nds and 3 3rds?

Both Swans and Suns will be looking to trade their 1st rounders for academy kids and use later picks.

So Richmond could very easiky end up with pick 6, 10, 14, and 26.

That is a ripper draft hand.

Or used on trades.

PS: Would not be surprised if the Eagles split their 1st this year for the right deal. Finn O'Sullivan would add that Rosee class midfielder.

 

[STPer18]

Richmond and Geelong are screwed.

Have fun

How many years since the last finals win are our Dingley friends up to now?

It's not Essendon levels yet but it's still very impressive.

 

[Mr Meow]

Richmond and Geelong are screwed.

Have fun

Hawthorn are definitely due to finish above Geelong on the ladder. It's only happened once since their last premiership, the 2018 straight sets season.

I suspect 2024 will still be too soon to buck the trend. 2025 is a red hot chance.

 

[Mr Meow]

How many years since the last finals win are our Dingley friends up to now?

It's not Essendon levels yet but it's still very impressive.

10 year anniversary next season.

 

[Mr Meow]

The thing about this is you are totally ignoring the difference between the 2 clubs 26-27yo's, which of course still have a huge part to play in any rebuild covering the next 7 years.

Richmond

27yrs Hopper
26yrs D Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham


Geelong's comparable list is:

27yrs O'Connor
26yrs Bowes

Richmond probably have 500+ fairly strong future senior games sitting right there, Geelong probably have about 150 less strong future senior games in these age groups.

It is undeniable these age groups play a part in the future prospects of both clubs and Richmond are streets ahead for now.

Like I said, you have to draw the line somewhere. 18-25 is a realistic marker for when the core could be in 5-7 years. Where the recent draftees are in their prime and those with 5-7 seasons under their belt are the new batch of seasoned veterans.

Looking at 26, 27, 28 year olds etc is fine but we're moving into a short term view - what can they achieve with the current veterans?

Geelong does have a gap there. Whether they can address it with FA when the big $$$ are opening up in the salary cap remains to be seen.

Otherwise, our 25 and unders look more promising. Bolton and Balta, at 25 and 24, have to do some very heavy lifting for you guys in that age range.

Anyway hopefully some of the other prospects build on their 2022/2023 seasons or emergency completely.